Core Insights - Bosnia and Herzegovina's inflation rate has reached double the EU average, with a reported rate of 4.2% in September compared to the EU's 2.2% [1] - Significant price increases were noted in the hospitality sector (8.0%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.8%), while clothing and footwear (-7.5%) and transportation (-0.8%) saw price declines [1] - The Eurozone's inflation rate rose from 2% in August to 2.2% in September, marking a five-month high, driven by narrowing energy price declines and rising service prices [1] Economic Analysis - Economists attribute Bosnia's high inflation primarily to domestic policies, including raising the minimum wage without reducing taxes, increasing electricity and public service prices, and a lack of measures to curb inflation and unreasonable price hikes [1] - The heavy reliance on imports due to insufficient support for local production exacerbates the inflation issue in Bosnia [1] - In contrast, the EU maintains controllable inflation through a superior business environment, adequate market competition, and stable fiscal policies [1]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines rose to 1.7% in September, up from 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of increase [1] - The average inflation rate for the first nine months of the year stands at 1.7%, which is below the government's annual target range of 2% to 4% [1] Inflation Drivers - The increase in September's inflation was primarily driven by a shift in transportation prices from a year-on-year decline of 0.3% in August to an increase of 1.0% in September [1] - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices also contributed to the inflation rise, with the year-on-year growth rate increasing from 0.9% to 1.0% [1] Food Inflation Details - The food inflation rate in September was 0.8%, up from 0.6% in August, with vegetable prices experiencing a significant increase from 10.0% in August to 19.4% in September due to adverse weather conditions in major production areas [1] - The decline in corn prices narrowed from a year-on-year drop of 11.8% to 4.5% [1] - Food inflation contributed approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall inflation rate [1] Core Inflation - Excluding food and energy prices, the core inflation rate for September was 2.6%, slightly lower than August's 2.7% but higher than the 2.4% recorded in the same month last year [2] Government Response - The Philippine government is committed to ensuring sufficient food supply and will allow the importation of specific vegetables such as carrots, onions, and broccoli as part of its price stabilization measures [2]

Core Insights - Bosnia's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in August, while year-on-year it increased by 4.1% [1] Price Changes - In August, prices for clothing and footwear rose by 0.1%, housing and utilities by 0.2%, healthcare products by 0.4%, entertainment and cultural services by 0.6%, education services by 0.1%, and food and hotel services by 0.1% [1] - Conversely, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell by 0.4%, and transportation services decreased by 0.8% [1] Year-on-Year Comparisons - Year-on-year, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 9.2%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco by 3.7%, housing and utilities by 0.2%, furniture and household equipment by 1.1%, healthcare products by 6.1%, communications by 0.3%, entertainment and cultural services by 4.9%, education services by 2.4%, and food and hotel services by 7.2% [1] - However, clothing and footwear prices dropped by 5.7%, and transportation services decreased by 2.7% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the back-to-school season in the U.S. is experiencing widespread price increases across various categories due to U.S. government tariff policies and other factors [1] - The average price of a typical back-to-school supply kit has risen by 7.3% this season [1] - Online prices for clothing, shoes, bags, and accessories in the U.S. surged by 9% year-on-year in July [1] Group 2 - A significant portion of school supplies sold in the U.S. is sourced from China, which is now subject to a 30% tariff on ordinary goods entering the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Inflation Data - July CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3.1%, marking a six-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4][6] - Energy CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of -1.6%, with gasoline prices dropping to -9.5%[11] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have a moderate impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth increasing to 1.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Used car prices saw the largest increase, rising 2 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by tariffs[12] - Prices for furniture and clothing showed a slight month-on-month decrease, indicating a milder tariff impact[12] Service Sector - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with medical services rising to 4.3%, hindering overall service inflation reduction[15] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent year-on-year growth slightly declining to 4.1%[15] Market Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 94%, with an average of 2.4 cuts expected for the year[18] - Consumer inflation expectations fell, with one-year expectations dropping to 4.5% and five-year expectations to 3.4%[15][20] Risks - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[19]

Group 1: Service Consumption Comparison - China's service consumption ratio is not low compared to countries with a GDP below $25,000, averaging 53.8% in 2019, while countries below this threshold average 46.4%[28] - In contrast, China's service consumption ratio is lower than the average of 56.3% for countries with a GDP above $25,000[28] - Overall, China's consumption rate is 39.3%, which is significantly lower than the average of 55.2% for the 43 countries analyzed[5] Group 2: Consumption Structure Insights - China's household consumption rate is composed of 21.1% service consumption and 18.2% goods consumption, both lower than the averages of 28.4% and 26.8% respectively for the 43 countries[5] - The largest discrepancy in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China stands at 2.4% compared to the 43-country average of 10.6%[34] - Housing services in China account for 23.4% of total consumption, with self-owned housing rental equivalence at 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average of the 43 countries[44] Group 3: Education and Healthcare Spending - Education spending in China is significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the 43-country average of 1.4%, indicating a strong emphasis on education[50] - Healthcare spending in China is also elevated at 6.4%, compared to the average of 2.7% for the 43 countries, ranking second globally[63] - Private healthcare expenditure in China is 6.0%, surpassing the 4.6% average of the 43 countries[63] Group 4: Transportation and Entertainment Expenditure - Transportation costs in China are lower, with transportation fees at 1.7% compared to the 2.6% average of the 43 countries, attributed to lower public transport prices[74] - Entertainment consumption is notably low in China, with cultural and entertainment services at only 0.6%, compared to the 3.4% average of the 43 countries[80] - Despite low entertainment spending, tourism consumption in China is relatively high at 1.2%, slightly above the 1.1% average of the 43 countries[80]