Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

| | | 甲醇日评20251021:做多仍需等待 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | | 指标 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/17 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | | MA01 | 2266.00 | 2272.00 | -6.00 | -0.26% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 2292.00 | 2290.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) | MA09 | 2257.00 | 2249.00 | 8.00 | 0.36% | | 元/吨 | | 太仓 | 2265.00 | 2267.50 | -2.50 | -0.11% | | 元/吨 | | 山东 | 2305.00 | 2305.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 广东 | 2257.50 | 2255.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇观赏价格 及其差 | 陕西 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 甲醇各地现货价格（元/吨） 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇装置检修与重启同步进行。宁夏、山西及华东地区有部分装置检修停车，但前期停车装置逐步恢复生产。减产装置增加，前期恢复装置减少，整体损失量多于恢 | | | | 复量，导致产量减少。 | | | | 下游消费量中，主要下游MTO消费量变动有限，其他下游消费量下跌为主。近期国内烯烃装置整体运行平稳。新疆一套 20 万吨装置已重启，但暂未达满负荷；宁夏、内蒙古个 | | 需求 | 中性 | 别烯烃厂暂停甲醇外采，导致主力下游实际需求有所收缩。不过后续内蒙古 80 万吨烯烃装置预计持续外采，或对南北线市场形成支撑，需关注河南乙 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：近期国内甲醇市场整体弱势下行，除宏观消息面对大宗商品集中压制外，甲醇供需面的持续博弈对行情利 空同步体现；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2320元/吨，01合约基差48，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年10月16日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为125.89万吨，较上周期库存小幅降库1.41万吨；沿 海地区（江苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源减少6.34万吨至87.70万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：预计本周甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market was extreme, with the main trading point being the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. Although the docking issue may be resolved, it will affect the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is currently maintaining a high shipping volume, but vessel sanctions have slowed down port inventory accumulation, leading to an increase in the 15 positive spread and basis. The bullish view that sanctions will force early gas restrictions and shutdowns in Iran has not been confirmed. Due to unloading impacts, port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is expected to be between 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The near - term trading focus is on Sino - US negotiations. In October, Iran's shipments remained high, but due to Iranian sanctions, some ports prohibited vessel docking, causing the methanol basis to turn positive. The long - term debate centers on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem for the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601, leading to a reverse spread for the 15 spread, with the process being affected by macro sentiment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market this week was characterized by extreme fluctuations, mainly due to the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. The problem is likely to be resolved, but it will impact the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is maintaining a high shipping volume, with about 640,000 tons shipped so far in October. Vessel sanctions have slowed port inventory accumulation, causing the 15 positive spread and basis to rise. The bullish view that sanctions will lead to early gas restrictions and plant shutdowns in Iran has not been verified. Port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Next week is a macro - event - filled week, including a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2,282 yuan/ton. For inland external procurement, the 01 base - spread strengthened [13]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: With the continuous acceleration of Iranian shipments (reaching 640,000 tons), the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year. However, due to Iranian sanctions, port docking is prohibited, causing the methanol basis to turn positive and the 15 spread to move towards a positive spread [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a short - term range. The short - term operating range for the 2601 contract is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold put options on the 2601 contract [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are multiple inventory - related charts, including methanol weekly inventory seasonality in the Northwest, methanol plant inventories in the South and North lines, and China's methanol enterprise weekly pending order volume seasonality [24][26][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are many port - inventory - related charts, such as China's methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, provincial - level methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, and methanol downstream inventory in the East China region [34][36][46]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6,800 - 7,400 yuan/ton, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [55]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including shorting or going long in methanol futures, buying or selling put and call options [55]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have prevented some methanol vessels from docking and unloading, such as Yanghong not accepting sanctioned vessels. Importers' replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II is expected to start feeding as early as the end of November [56][57]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 640,000 tons so far in October [57]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [58]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - In the domestic market, the production areas performed weaker than the consumption areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week due to the disk rally, the lack of external procurement news from northwest olefin plants and the active price - cutting by methanol plants in the production areas to maintain low inventories led to a decline in methanol prices in the production areas. Downstream users' price - pressing purchases also caused the market in the consumption areas to decline [59]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread strengthened, mainly due to sanctions on Iran [61]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain The text provides price data for various products in the methanol industry chain, including domestic and international market prices of methanol, downstream product prices, and prices of related raw materials such as coal [5][7]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain The text shows the production costs and profit seasonality of different methanol production methods, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, natural - gas - based production in the Southwest, and coke - oven - gas - based production [79][83][84]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain The text presents the weekly operating rates and production seasonality of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - alcohol, coal - combined - alcohol, coke - oven - gas - based methanol, and MTO units [86][89][94]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking The text includes information on the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [120][121]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking The text provides data on the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and their weekly production [124][126][128]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection The text provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, inventory, and inventory changes [131]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection This week, in domestic methanol plants, Jinneng Huayu in North China started to increase the load of a furnace after shutting it down on October 9th. In Central China, the market was mainly affected by the resumption of the Henan Hebi plant. In Northwest China, there were both restarts and overhauls of plants, including the restart of the Xilaifeng plant and the load increase of Shaanxi Runzhong, while plants such as Zhongmei Yuanxing, Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Donghua, and Ningxia Hening were shut down for maintenance [132]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units: Xingxing returned on September 12th, and Chengzhi increased its load at the beginning of September. - New demand projects: The MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II was planned to be handed over on September 26th, earlier than expected, and has started stockpiling. - Iran maintains a high shipping volume [136].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market focus remains on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. Port storage enterprises are reluctant to receive Iranian cargoes due to sanctions risks, which supports the port market. However, the situation of the potential restart of negotiations between the US and Iran needs further attention. - Inland coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are gradually increasing from a low level. Traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 660 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices in different regions show different trends. Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2065 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 346 yuan/ton (-21). Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2318 yuan/ton (-3), Henan is 2165 yuan/ton (-10), and Hebei is 2210 yuan/ton (-25). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 359,900 tons (+20,500), and the northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (+19,000). The inland factory's pending orders are 228,910 tons (+113,670), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 136,730 tons (+73,530) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2297 yuan/ton (-20), its basis is -22 yuan/ton (-41), CFR China is 267 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import price difference is -20 yuan/ton (-21). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,491,360 tons (-51,870), with Jiangsu port inventory at 773,000 tons (-20,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 224,000 tons (-63,500), and Guangdong port inventory at 323,000 tons (+23,000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (unchanged) [2]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences between different regions also show different changes. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is -55 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is -318 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Port**: On Thursday, port inventories rebounded again. The market's focus is on Iranian methanol vessels. Due to sanctions risks, port storage enterprises are less willing to receive Iranian cargoes, which supports the port market. The willingness of Chinese storage enterprises to receive Iranian methanol vessels remains low, leading to a decrease in shipments from some Iranian methanol enterprises, and attention should be paid to their factory inventory accumulation [3]. - **Inland**: The coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are increasing from a low level. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low levels. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high levels [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and it's necessary to wait before going long. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent driving force may come from potential supply reduction, such as Iran's gas - restriction expectation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [1]. - Spot prices in different regions: Shandong remained unchanged at 2305 yuan/ton; Guangdong rose 0.11% to 2270 yuan/ton; Shaanxi decreased 0.36% to 2072.50 yuan/ton; Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton and 2280 yuan/ton respectively; Inner Mongolia decreased 0.84% to 2060 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 1 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: Ordos Q5500 increased 0.95% to 530 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 increased 1.24% to 610 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 increased 2.10% to 607.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased 6.30 yuan/ton to 312.20 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit increased 30.20 yuan/ton to - 165.20 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased 16.49% to - 1003.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased 5.21% to 554.53 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased 9.43% to 480.20 yuan/ton; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2275 yuan/ton and closing at 2298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960, showing reduced volume and positions [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned so far, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of October 15, domestic methanol production output increased slightly, with the production capacity of resumed plants exceeding that of those under maintenance or reduction. The total port inventory decreased, with destocking in East China and inventory accumulation in South China. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased. The MTO industry maintained high - level operation, but the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2298 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1038960 lots, down 12400 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 124683 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11282, unchanged [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 232.5 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 261 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.07 US dollars [2]. d. Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 108.05 tons, up 4.78 tons; South China port inventory was 46.27 tons, up 0.32 tons. Methanol import profit was 25.83 yuan/ton, up 10.4 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 339400 tons, up 19500 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 89.59%, up 7.06% [2]. e. Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate was 34.11%, down 10.07%; dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.98%, down 2.22%; acetic acid operating rate was 82.96%, up 3.99%; MTBE operating rate was 64.12%, down 0.11%; olefin operating rate was 93.19%, up 1.3%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1099 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, up 0.67%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.08%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.54%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.52%, up 0.25% [2]. g. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, up 2.05 tons, a 6.04% increase; the order backlog was 22.89 tons, up 11.37 tons, a 98.64% increase. The total port inventory was 149.14 tons, down 5.18 tons. East China destocked by 8.35 tons, and South China accumulated inventory by 3.17 tons. As of October 9, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 93.74%, up 4.49% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the short - term is "volatile" [1] Core View - The domestic methanol market performed well overall. With the sanctions event fermenting and uncertainties in the follow - up, along with the expected supply reduction from overseas gas restrictions in the medium - term, the port trading atmosphere was good and the basis continued to strengthen. The buying atmosphere in the mainland's main markets was also good, and new orders from production area enterprises were well - sold. Attention should be paid to the subsequent freight fluctuations and the impact of the sanctions event. After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated, with different inventory situations in different regions [4] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of methanol's 01 - contract was 2,342 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,307 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton), the settlement price was 2,335 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,295 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton), the trading volume was 1,262,936 lots (yesterday: 569,488 lots, up 693,448 lots), the open interest was 991,942 lots (yesterday: 1,001,498 lots, down 9,556 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 11,282 tons (yesterday: 11,382 tons, down 100 tons), and the trading volume was 2,948,666 ten - thousand yuan (yesterday: 1,307,252 ten - thousand yuan, up 1,641,415 ten - thousand yuan). The basis was - 42 (yesterday: - 82, up 40), and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 12 (yesterday: - 44, up 32). - In the spot market, the price in Jiangsu's ex - tank was 0 (unchanged), the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton), the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,045 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,050 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton), and the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] 2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,167.17, up 11.49. The spot price in Taicang was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 12 cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 65 yuan/ton [4] 3. Inventory Situation - After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated. From September 25th to October 9th, 59.47 tons of foreign - owned vessels' visible unloading were counted. In Jiangsu, ship departures supported good提货, in Zhejiang, the rigid demand was stable, and concentrated unloading led to inventory accumulation. In South China, inventories continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, but typhoon weather affected unloading and提货 in some periods, and holiday - related restrictions on提货 in mainstream warehouses led to inventory build - up. In Fujian, imported and domestic supplies were supplemented, and downstream consumption was relatively stable, with little inventory fluctuation [4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2601 are all weak. The overall view is that it will run weakly, with bearish factors dominating [1][5]. - Due to the US updating the sanctions list and including 9 ships responsible for Iranian methanol transportation to China in the SDN list, the supply pressure of methanol in China is expected to ease, which boosts the methanol price to repair. However, facing the medium - term downward trend suppression and with weak industrial factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract started a rebound after reaching a low of 2276 yuan/ton. This week, it continued the rebound trend and recovered short - term moving averages. But on Monday night, it closed slightly lower by 0.26% to 2329 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - The inclusion of 9 ships in the SDN list disrupts the import expectation, reducing the supply pressure of methanol in China and driving the price to repair [5]. - The industrial factors are weak, and the medium - term downward trend suppresses the price, leading to the expected weakly oscillating trend [5].