甲醇期货
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继续维持港口弱内地强的格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of stronger inland than ports in the methanol market continues. The port inventory pressure remains high, but after the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. However, the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan is announced. [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and overall, the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for ports to flow back to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [26][31] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The port total inventory of methanol is 1,550,330 tons (+122,675 tons), with the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 804,000 tons (+44,000 tons), Zhejiang ports at 285,500 tons (+43,200 tons), and Guangdong ports at 274,000 tons (+7,000 tons). The downstream MTO开工率 is 81.57% (-3.15%). The inland factory inventory is 342,560 tons (-4,523 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 221,300 tons (-3,700 tons). [1][2] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei and Northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 23 yuan/ton (+0), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 385 yuan/ton (-8). [2] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether. [52][56] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low. - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high. [4]
瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250916
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 09:29
Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by middle and downstream industries and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep the accumulation rhythm this week. The import demand may be stable, and the specific accumulation amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2375 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 805,395 lots, an increase of 21,504 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 148,677 lots, a decrease of 36,491 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 16,131, unchanged [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2135 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 160 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, up 8.72 tons; at South China ports, it is 46.08 tons, up 3.54 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 1.19 yuan/ton, down 15.09 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, up 1500 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58%, down 0.26% [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, up 5.4%; dimethyl ether is 4.86%, up 0.03%; acetic acid is 83.11%, down 1.13%; MTBE is 61.69%, down 0.53%; olefins is 81.57%, down 3.15%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 955 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.72%, up 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.57%, down 0.88%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.54%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.55%, up 0.07% [3] 7. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, down 0.45 tons (1.31% MoM); the orders to be delivered were 25.07 tons, up 0.94 tons (3.91% MoM). The total port inventory was 155.03 tons, up 12.26 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, down 3.16% [3]
甲醇周报:烯烃外采增加,甲醇现货价格上涨-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - environment of the market has improved, and the main methanol futures have shown a relatively strong trend. The news of the malfunction and shutdown of the Iranian device has increased market expectations, driving up the coastal basis and improving the overall trading atmosphere. The inland market has also trended strongly. Some olefin plants in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have continued to purchase externally, increasing the demand of the main downstream. There is also an expectation of pre - National Day restocking among downstream enterprises, and the traditional downstream has actively followed up. Methanol enterprises have smoothly sold their products, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices. However, due to the poor overall profit of the traditional downstream, the cost pressure has restricted the increase in methanol prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The domestic methanol supply this week shows a situation of "decreased domestic production, reduced imports, but increased inventory at ports". The total production capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, and the weekly output is 1.9193 million tons, both showing a month - on - month decline because the output of the production capacity involved in maintenance and production reduction is more than the loss of the production capacity involved in recovery. The import volume has shrunk, with this week's import volume at 432,500 tons, a decrease of 3.87%. It is expected that the arrival volume next week will be 348,500 - 350,000 tons, a decrease of 23.24%. The 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran has malfunctioned and shut down [2] Demand - This week, the domestic methanol demand shows a situation of "pressure on the main downstream and differentiation in the traditional downstream", and the overall demand lacks resilience. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally is 69.06%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 9.75%. The shutdown of some MTO plants in the northwest is the main drag. The traditional downstream is differentiated: the formaldehyde industry is driven by the increase in the device load in North and Central China; the acetic acid industry has a slight increase in operation due to the restart of Anhui Huayi's device and the recovery of Nanjing Celanese's load; downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and MTBE are weak [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory shows a situation of "accelerated inventory accumulation at ports and a slight increase inland", and the supply - demand mismatch has increased market pressure. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the concentrated arrival at the supply end and weak demand. At ports, the arrival of foreign vessels has remained at a high level, Iranian goods have been unloaded intensively, and the previously delayed arrival of goods has been concentrated in storage. The supply at ports has been continuously abundant. However, the demand - side support is insufficient, the overall load of MTO plants is at a relatively low level, and enterprises such as Xingxing have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slowdown in the port pick - up speed and weak inventory digestion. Overall, the port inventory is close to the historical high. Inland, the inventory pressure in the inland market is relatively mild, with a month - on - month slight increase of 2.31%, mainly because the operation in the main production areas in the northwest has slightly declined, and the improvement of short - distance transportation in some areas has alleviated the inventory accumulation rhythm. The malfunction and shutdown of the 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran have a certain positive impact on the port inventory accumulation [2] Profit - This week, the overall methanol profit has improved, with different processes showing differentiation. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.97%; the full - cost profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest is 126.74 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 55.55%); the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei is 303 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 3.41%); the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest has narrowed by 48 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in methanol prices, the profits of industries such as MTO in the downstream are mostly under pressure [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - On September 10, sources said that when Trump talked with EU officials, he clearly proposed, as part of the pressure on Russia, to urge the EU to impose a "secondary tariff" of up to 100% on China and encourage the EU to take similar measures against India. The Houthi armed forces confirmed a ballistic missile attack on Israel [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: MA1 - 5 positive spread. Areas of risk concern include downstream demand, olefin external procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]
甲醇日报:港口库存再度快速累积-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:25
甲醇日报 | 2025-09-11 港口库存再度快速累积 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨(-30),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润750元/吨(+53);内地甲醇价格方面, 内蒙北线2055元/吨(-8),内蒙北线基差282元/吨(-9),内蒙南线2080元/吨(+0);山东临沂2325元/吨(+2),鲁 南基差152元/吨(+1);河南2230元/吨(+0),河南基差57元/吨(-1);河北2265元/吨(+0),河北基差152元/吨(-1)。 隆众内地工厂库存333393吨(+22600),西北工厂库存214500吨(+16500);隆众内地工厂待发订单216985吨(+9615), 西北工厂待发订单113300吨(+8100)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2232元/吨(-18),太仓基差-141元/吨(-19),CFR中国260美元/吨(-1),华东进口价差-34元 /吨(-15),常州甲醇2430元/吨;广东甲醇2255元/吨(-10),广东基差-118元/吨(-11)。隆众港口总库存1299250 吨(+223290),江苏港口库存671500吨(+124000),浙江 ...
甲醇日报:港口库存压力仍大,传统下游开工再度回落-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 06:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continues to rise rapidly, especially in Jiangsu. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. - The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol in the inland areas has passed, and the production of coal - based methanol has further increased. The inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid continue to decline, and the operating rate of formaldehyde remains low. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures showing the basis between methanol spot in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, including methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and the import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [6][27] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated plants) are presented. The port inventory is increasing, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 760,000 tons (+88,500 tons). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 84.72% (-0.63%). The inland factory inventory is also rising, with the Longzhong inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons). [2][3][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between different regions, such as the price differences between northern Shandong and the northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. For example, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton). [3][6][40] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][51] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see. [4]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250903
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:18
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5] - Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday night, it still faces significant upward pressure, and the price center may move down due to the weak supply - demand structure [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, with a reference view of running strongly. The core logic is that the rebound of coal futures prices drives methanol to oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] - On Tuesday night, the domestic coal futures prices rebounded slightly, driving the methanol futures 2601 contract to show an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.63% to 2393 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]
瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250902
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 09:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol production increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity was more than the loss of the overhaul and production - cut capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises increased last week due to the start of a new long - term contract in the northwest region and the resumption of some overhaul projects. The port inventory of methanol accelerated to accumulate significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate increased last week and is expected to continue to increase slightly this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2325 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 107,545 lots, an increase of 3,658 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,516, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 192.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 137 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 257 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton; the price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 293 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 65 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.02 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 88.9 tons, an increase of 18.28 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 41.03 tons, an increase of 4.05 tons. The import profit of methanol was 1.62 yuan/ton, down 4.03 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.04%, unchanged; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.54%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins was 85.35%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 973 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.69%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.12%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.6%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.6%, up 1.12 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 27, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.34 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.70 tons, an increase of 0.96 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 129.93 tons, an increase of 22.33 tons from the previous data. As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.41%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [3]
甲醇日报:关注伊朗装置后续检修可能-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:42
甲醇日报 | 2025-09-02 关注伊朗装置后续检修可能 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润740元/吨(-5);内地甲醇价格方面,内 蒙北线2045元/吨(-5),内蒙北线基差260元/吨(-29),内蒙南线2040元/吨(-40);山东临沂2310元/吨(-8),鲁 南基差125元/吨(-32);河南2230元/吨(+0),河南基差45元/吨(-24);河北2265元/吨(+0),河北基差140元/吨 (-24)。隆众内地工厂库存333393吨(+22600),西北工厂库存214500吨(+16500);隆众内地工厂待发订单216985 吨(+9615),西北工厂待发订单113300吨(+8100)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2230元/吨(+5),太仓基差-155元/吨(-19),CFR中国256美元/吨(-2),华东进口价差-16元/ 吨(+10),常州甲醇2410元/吨;广东甲醇2235元/吨(-12),广东基差-150元/吨(-36)。隆众港口总库存1299750 吨(+223790),江苏港口库存671500吨(+124000 ...
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250829
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:22
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250828
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while downstream profits in the inland areas are still poor, indicating room for improvement. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The return of domestic and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, with limited demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely. The upward momentum for methanol is not strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 2372 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2366 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 2247 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, except for a 2.5 - yuan/ton (0.12%) increase in Shaanxi, and no change in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and the average price of 2180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Inner Mongolia's Taicang spot - MA decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-1.01%) to 490 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 562.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 562.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot decreased by 0.73 yuan/cubic meter (-18.53%) to 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, while the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.14 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 436.3 yuan/ton and - 462 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-8.55%) to 107 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 71.5 yuan/ton (22.03%) to - 253.07 yuan/ton; Acetic acid profit increased by 27.31 yuan/ton (10.44%) to 288.79 yuan/ton; MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 482,265 lots, and open interest was 754,731, with increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has reached around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating weakly, with the night - session closing at 2361. Attention should be paid to the potential impacts of the market's partial reflection of the current logic and the anti - involution expectations,[1].