全球黄金需求在价格屡创新高的背景下持续强劲增长。 世界黄金协会周四发布的季度报告显示，二季度全球黄金总需求同比增长3%至1249吨，价值跃升45% 至创纪录的1320亿美元。 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元人民币，创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现。这一表现主要由全球 贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治动荡以及金价上涨推动，投资者大举涌入这一避险资产。 全球黄金ETF需求连续第二个季度大幅增长，成为推动整体需求的重要因素。金条和金币投资者也加入 其中，被上涨的价格和黄金的避险属性所吸引。 全球央行在第二季放缓购金步伐，购买量创2022年以来的最低水平。尽管如此，世界黄金协会认为，地 缘政治和经济的不确定性，会促使央行继续购金。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示："要真正看空黄金，你必须认为主要地缘政治领导人会 突然变得理智和合作。但世界对我来说似乎过于两极分化了。" 央行购金步伐放缓但仍处高位 世界黄金协会表示，各国央行在二季度继续购买黄金，为全球官方黄金储备增加166吨，但速度较以往 有所放缓。该组织表示，购买量处于2022年以来的最低水平，但仍比2010年至2021年的季度平均水平高 出41% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].

Core Insights - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling €39.81 billion, with organic revenue down 3% [2] - Operating profit decreased by 15% to €9.01 billion, while net profit fell by 22% to €5.69 billion [2] - The fashion and leather goods segment, including brands like LV and Dior, was the worst-performing area, with revenue of €19.11 billion and an organic revenue decline of 7% [2] Business Segment Performance - Fashion and Leather Goods: Revenue of €19.11 billion, organic revenue down 7%, with a significant decline in Q2 [2] - Selective Retailing: Revenue of €8.62 billion, organic revenue growth of 2% [2] - Watches and Jewelry: Revenue of €5.09 billion, organic revenue flat [2] - Perfumes and Cosmetics: Revenue of €4.08 billion, organic revenue flat [2] - Wines and Spirits: Revenue of €2.59 billion, organic revenue down 7% [2] Regional Performance - Other Asian regions, excluding Japan and including China, contributed 28% of total revenue [2] - The U.S. market accounted for 25% of revenue, while other European regions contributed 17% [2] - France and Japan each represented 8% of total revenue [2] - Japan experienced a 15% decline in organic revenue, while the Asian region's decline slowed down; the U.S. market saw a slight decrease of 1% [2] Management Commentary - LVMH's CEO Bernard Arnault emphasized the company's resilience and the strength of its iconic brands, despite the economic uncertainty impacting luxury demand [3] - The performance reflects the ongoing challenges in the luxury market, particularly in Asia, with LVMH's revenue and core business income decline exceeding Wall Street expectations [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. real estate market has experienced its weakest spring sales season in 13 years, with the number of signed home sales contracts from April to June reaching the lowest level since 2012 [1] - Despite a decrease in mortgage rates and a slowdown in home price growth, economic uncertainty driven by Trump's tariff policies has led potential buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1][2] - Concerns about the future economic outlook have exacerbated the situation, with many buyers feeling anxious and cautious, further suppressing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The spring season, typically a peak time for real estate transactions, has seen low activity levels despite some price reductions in certain areas [2] - Sellers are increasingly withdrawing properties from the market to avoid selling at unfavorable prices, which limits the available inventory [2] - Affordability in the real estate market has reached its lowest level since the 1980s due to prolonged high borrowing costs, impacting buyer assumptions about refinancing [3]

Group 1 - Wall Street professionals are closely monitoring an upcoming critical week that may set the tone for the US stock market and economy for the remainder of the year, with key events including the Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [1][2] - The S&P 500 companies have generally exceeded expectations, with profits increasing by 4.5% compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential recovery in the second half of the year [2][3] - Consumer demand is being driven by wealthier consumers, with companies like American Airlines and United Airlines reporting strong demand for premium services, while Chipotle has lowered its earnings forecast due to pressure on low-income consumers [3][4] Group 2 - Economic uncertainty persists as the impact of tariffs begins to show, with economists predicting a slowdown in consumer spending and a potential rise in unemployment [4][5] - Despite uncertainties, the stock market remains at historical highs, supported by signals of a strong labor market and corporate earnings exceeding lower expectations [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is critical for the market, with key events including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon and Apple, and important economic indicators such as GDP and non-farm payroll data [1][3] - Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel describes this week as a "truth moment" for the market, emphasizing the significance of the data flow in assessing investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and stock market [3] - The S&P 500 companies are generally exceeding expectations, with profits rising by 4.5% year-over-year, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [3][6] Group 2 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with expectations for a significant rebound in Q2 GDP following a contraction due to a surge in imports earlier in the year [7] - Analysts predict that consumer spending adjusted for inflation in June will show little to no growth, and hiring is expected to continue slowing down, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7][11] - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is anticipated to accelerate due to the impact of tariffs [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that economic uncertainty will suppress spending and investment [1] Economic Impact - Economic uncertainty is expected to lead to reduced consumer spending and lower levels of investment [1]

Group 1 - The company reported Q2 2025 revenues of EUR 5.8 billion and EBITDA of EUR 171 million, achieving a margin of 3.0% [3][4] - The market environment is characterized by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which is perceived as the new normal by the company and its clients [3] - The company is experiencing mixed performance across different markets, with profitable growth in Italy and Spain, and a return to growth in APAC, particularly in India and Japan [4] Group 2 - North America showed sequential improvement with year-over-year growth in operational and digital business [4] - Northwest Europe is facing challenges due to weakened hiring confidence, particularly affecting permanent recruiting and professional businesses [4] - The company anticipates continued economic uncertainty moving forward [4]

不对国债收益率上涨置评。 日本央行副行长内田真一表示，更低的不确定性将对经济有正向影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, has indicated that economic uncertainty may pose a downside risk to inflation [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects concerns regarding the potential impact of economic fluctuations on inflation rates [1] - The Bank of Japan's stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of these uncertainties [1] - This commentary may influence market expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments by the Bank of Japan [1]