Core Insights - The National Index of Free Cash Flow has shown a positive trend, with an increase of 0.45% as of November 27, 2025, and notable stock performances from companies like Qin'an Co., Ltd. and Anfu Technology, which rose by 6.39% and 6.07% respectively [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has experienced a three-day consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.17 yuan and an average daily trading volume of 439 million yuan over the past month [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen significant net inflows, totaling 1.778 billion yuan over the past 14 days, with a peak single-day inflow of 253 million yuan [1] - The ETF's total shares have reached a record high of 6.126 billion, and its total size has also hit a new high of 7.105 billion yuan [1] - Leverage funds are actively investing, with a net purchase amount of 4.5949 million yuan this month and a latest financing balance of 17.3 million yuan [1] Performance Metrics - The Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded a 17.28% increase in net value over the past six months [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.00%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting six months and a maximum increase of 22.69% [2] - The ETF has a monthly profit percentage of 87.50% and a historical six-month holding profit probability of 100.00% [2] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market [2] Top Holdings - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow account for 54.79% of the index, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation and SAIC Motor Corporation [2] - The individual weightings of the top stocks vary, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation holding 9.87% and SAIC Motor Corporation at 8.71% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick addressed investor concerns regarding Oracle's data center leasing obligations, which have raised questions about future cost pressures [1] Group 1 - The analyst acknowledged the scale of the related commitments while emphasizing Oracle's flexibility in lease management [1] - Zelnick estimated that even if Oracle bears approximately half of the related costs, it could still support earnings per share close to $15 [1] - Free cash flow is expected to remain around $26 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with technology sectors such as CPO, optical communication, and electronic components leading the gains, while value styles remained stable [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index increased by 3%, while both the Guozheng Value 100 Index and the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rose by 0.1% [1] - Value ETF (159263) and E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) saw significant capital inflows during the trading session [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Since 2018, following China's entry into the mature industrialization phase, investor focus on free cash flow has notably increased, leading to significant excess returns in industries with improved free cash flow (FCFF) [1] - Current "anti-involution" policies are driving a contraction in manufacturing capital expenditure, resulting in a "passive improvement" of free cash flow [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate the return of cross-border capital, potentially enhancing the EBIT of manufacturing and consumption sectors, leading to an "active improvement" in free cash flow [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of gold and cash flow ETFs, with gold surpassing $4160 and the China Gold ETF increasing by 0.33%, leading to a year-to-date gain of 53% [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen continuous net inflows since October 14, totaling 2.6 billion yuan, with a recent streak of 13 consecutive days of net subscriptions [1] - The China Gold ETF has also experienced significant inflows, with a total of 3.248 billion yuan and 19 consecutive days of net subscriptions [1] Group 2 - The strong demand for these ETFs is driven by year-end capital seeking stability and locking in annual returns, with the Free Cash Flow ETF tracking a low-crowding value index that benefits from policy catalysts [2] - Despite uncertainties regarding a potential Fed rate cut in December, geopolitical tensions, the onset of a rate cut cycle, de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases continue to support gold prices [2] - Recent dovish signals from Fed officials have increased the likelihood of a December rate cut to 80% [2] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) is noted for having the lowest fee structure, with a recent increase of 0.26% and a total size of 7.026 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [3] - Key holdings in the Free Cash Flow ETF include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Gree Electric Appliances [3] - The China Gold ETF (518850) is recognized for its low fees and direct reflection of gold price fluctuations, supporting T+0 trading [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after entering the industrialization maturity phase in 2018, investors in China have shown increased attention to free cash flow (FCFF), leading to significant excess returns in industries with improved FCFF [1] - The current "anti-involution" policy is driving a contraction in manufacturing CAPEX, resulting in a "passive improvement" of free cash flow, while the repatriation of cross-border capital is expected to enhance EBIT in manufacturing and consumption sectors, leading to "active improvement" [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the cash flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, and allows for monthly dividend assessments [1] - The fund is managed by Guotai Junan Fund Management Co., Ltd., and there is no affiliation with the London Stock Exchange Group [1]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has surpassed $4160, with the Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 0.33%, expanding its year-to-date increase to 53%. The Free Cash Flow ETF also increased by 0.26%, with a net subscription of 18 million units during the trading session [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen continuous net inflows since October 14, totaling 2.6 billion yuan, and has experienced 13 consecutive days of net subscriptions. The Huaxia Gold ETF has recorded a net inflow of 3.248 billion yuan, with 19 consecutive days of net subscriptions [1][2] Group 2 - The strong demand for these two ETFs is driven by year-end capital seeking stability and locking in annual returns. The Free Cash Flow ETF tracks the National Index of Free Cash Flow, covering sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, petrochemicals, and power equipment, which are low in crowding and can benefit from policy catalysts and improving economic conditions [2] - Despite uncertainties regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, geopolitical tensions, the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, de-dollarization, and ongoing central bank gold purchases continue to support gold prices. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials have raised the likelihood of a December rate cut to 80% [2] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) is highlighted as a low-fee cash cow product, with a recent increase of 0.26% and a total size of 7.026 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products. Key holdings include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Gree Electric Appliances. The product has a comprehensive fee rate of 0.2%, the lowest in the market [3] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) is noted as a low-fee investment tool for gold, increasing by 0.33%. It is anchored to physical gold, with underlying assets being gold spot contracts from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly reflecting gold price fluctuations and supporting T+0 trading [3]

Core Insights - After entering the industrialization maturity phase in 2018, there has been a notable increase in investor focus on free cash flow (FCFF) in China, with significant enhancement in excess returns from industries with improved FCFF [1] - The current "anti-involution" policy is driving a contraction in manufacturing CAPEX, leading to a "passive improvement" in free cash flow through reduced capital expenditures and working capital [1] - Cross-border capital repatriation is expected to boost EBIT in manufacturing and consumer sectors, resulting in "active improvement" [1] Group 1: Free Cash Flow Dynamics - Industries such as resources, consumption, and light asset technology (computers/media) are experiencing significant excess returns when both "active improvement" (EBIT increase) and "passive improvement" (CAPEX/working capital reduction) occur simultaneously [1] - Heavy asset technology (electronics/communications) and growth-stage manufacturing are facing temporary deterioration in FCFF due to CAPEX expansion, but EBIT improvements can still yield excess returns [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The essence of the manufacturing "anti-involution" is to repair cash flow through both revenue enhancement (EBIT increase) and cost reduction (CAPEX contraction), with signs of improvement already visible in sectors like new energy and cement [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cash flow ETFs (159399), which have outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of the cash flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1]

截至11月24日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨16.41%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月24日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7.00%，最长连 涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为22.69%，涨跌月数比为7/1，上涨月份平均收益率为3.20%，月盈利百分比为87.50%，月盈利概率为82.74%，历史持有6个 月盈利概率为100%。 费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 自由现金流ETF紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，国证自由现金流指数反映沪深北交易所自由现金流水平较高且稳定性较好的上市公司证券价格变化情况。数 据显示，截至2025年10月31日，国证自由现金流指数前十大权重股分别为中国海油、上汽集团、五粮液、格力电器、洛阳钼业、中国铝业、陕西煤业、上海 电气、厦门国贸、正泰电器，前十大权重股合计占比54.79%。 截至2025年11月25日9:55，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.48%，成分股福建高速、亚翔集成、洛阳钼业、常宝股份、菜百股份等领涨。自由现金流ETF(159201) 上涨0.52%，最新价报1.16元。流动性方面，截至11月24日，自由现金流ETF近 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][22]. Core Views - The company plans to issue up to 800 million shares of RMB ordinary shares for listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which represents 11.52% of the total share capital post-issuance. The funds raised will be used for business development and to supplement working capital [3][4]. - The issuance of A-shares is expected to have a limited dilution effect, and the company has sufficient free cash flow to maintain its dividend per share (DPS) [4][18]. - The garbage incineration industry is entering a mature phase, with a slowdown in capacity release. The national capacity for harmless treatment of municipal solid waste has increased to 1.5226 million tons per day, with incineration accounting for 76.08% [4][12]. - The company’s free cash flow has turned positive, reaching HKD 4.416 billion in 2024, indicating a shift from expansion to refined operations, which may lead to a revaluation in the secondary market [18][25]. Summary by Sections Share Issuance Impact - The proposed issuance of A-shares is expected to increase the total share capital from 6.143 billion to 6.943 billion shares, with a potential upper limit of 7.063 billion shares if the overallotment is exercised. The total dividend amount is projected to increase by 11.3% to HKD 15.97 billion, or by 14.9% to HKD 16.24 billion considering the overallotment [10][4]. Industry Analysis - The number of new garbage incineration projects has decreased significantly, with only 20 new projects in 2024, a reduction of 35 from 2023. The total investment in these projects is estimated at approximately HKD 5.26 billion, down about 80% from HKD 28.77 billion in 2023 [4][15]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 3.532 billion, with a growth rate of 4.6% for the following years. The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is estimated at 8.7x for 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [22][25]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a projected DPS of HKD 0.23 for 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [25][22]. Valuation Comparison - The current PE ratio of the company’s H-shares is 9.8x, significantly lower than the average issuance PE of over 20x for A-share listed garbage incineration companies, suggesting room for valuation improvement [18][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of free cash flow (FCF) as a key indicator for assessing a company's intrinsic value, highlighting its role in classic value investment strategies and the increasing focus on companies with strong cash generation capabilities [3][4][14]. Summary by Sections Free Cash Flow Concept - Free cash flow is defined as the cash remaining after a company has paid all its operating expenses and capital expenditures, which can be used for debt repayment, dividends, or reinvestment, serving as a crucial indicator of a company's true profitability [4][6]. Investment Strategy - Focusing on high free cash flow companies can help investors avoid pitfalls and strive for long-term returns, as these companies demonstrate strong operational performance and lower financial manipulation compared to net profit [7][8]. - High free cash flow firms are better positioned to withstand economic downturns due to their solid financial foundations and can leverage their cash reserves for growth opportunities during economic upturns [8]. Performance of Free Cash Flow Strategy - The China Securities Index's Free Cash Flow Total Return Index has shown a remarkable increase of 754.11% since its base date of December 31, 2013, significantly outperforming the broader market index, which rose by 147.62% in the same period [9][12]. - The Free Cash Flow Total Return Index has consistently outperformed the broader index during market downturns and has had competitive performance during market upturns, indicating its effectiveness as an investment strategy [12][13]. Future Outlook - As the macroeconomic environment undergoes structural changes, the significance of free cash flow strategies is expected to increase, particularly as the economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, favoring companies with strong cash flow generation [14]. - The ongoing decline in interest rates is likely to drive market participants to seek assets that can generate sustainable cash flows, enhancing the investment appeal of companies with abundant free cash flow [15].