Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy stance is prudent and steady with new focuses on supporting small - and micro - enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year in August, with equipment manufacturing leading the growth and profits of enterprises of different sizes improving. The market may have expectations for further policies as the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is approaching. During the National Day holiday, gold reached a record high due to yen depreciation and rising US dollar index, domestic travel and consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but then had a sharp correction, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion after the holiday. Most broad - based indexes rose in the four trading days around the National Day, with CSI 500 rising over 2% and others having 1 - 2% increases. The ChiNext Index quickly declined. In terms of basis, recent basis fluctuations were large, with the basis of IC and IM widening significantly and annualized basis rates reaching around 9% and 13% respectively [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] 2. Recent Forecast Conclusion - For IH and IF, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to - 0.25%, and for IC, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to 1.00% [3] 3. This Week's Review - The central bank's Q3 regular meeting before the National Day did not provide guidance on incremental easing measures. The 8 - month industrial enterprise profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The Politburo meeting in September discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan". During the National Day, gold hit a record high, domestic consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and then corrected, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. Most broad - based indexes rose around the National Day, and the ChiNext Index declined. The basis of IC and IM widened significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold-related stocks and ETFs have seen significant gains due to rising international gold prices and political uncertainties in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shandong Gold surged over 9%, Zhongjin Gold increased by over 8%, and Chifeng Gold and Shanjin International rose more than 6% [1] - Gold-related ETFs experienced gains exceeding 6% [1] Group 2: ETF Details - The following ETFs reported notable price increases: - Gold Stock ETF Fund (Code: 159315) rose by 6.88% to $1.741 - Gold Stock ETF (Code: 517400) increased by 6.80% to $1.680 - Gold Stock ETF (Code: 159321) gained 6.68% to $1.628 - Gold Stock ETF (Code: 517520) climbed 6.63% to $2.123 - Gold Stock ETF Fund (Code: 159322) went up 6.29% to $1.723 - Gold Stock ETF (Code: 159562) rose 6.10% to $2.312 [2] Group 3: Gold Price Trends - During the National Day holiday, international gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing $4000 per ounce on October 7, and London spot gold also exceeding $4000 per ounce on October 8, marking historical highs [2] - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1 has led to increased market expectations that political uncertainty will enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time in history, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][3][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 8, the international gold price reached a peak of $4020.9 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 51.13% and a monthly rise of 11.39% [1]. - The gold price has experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, rising from $2600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4000 in October, with several key milestones along the way [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, heightened expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts [3][6]. - Domestic gold jewelry brands in China have also seen record prices, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Sang Sang reaching prices of 1176 RMB and 1165 RMB per gram, respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - There has been a notable shift in the structure of gold buying, with individual investors and central banks becoming the primary buyers, rather than speculative trading [5][6]. - Gold ETFs have recorded significant inflows, indicating a strong interest from investors in adjusting their gold positions ahead of the holiday season [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is a response to changing global political and economic conditions, with expectations that gold prices may remain elevated for an extended period [6][7]. Group 5: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices, predicting an average of 4900 USD per ounce by December 2026, driven by continued central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [7]. - UBS also anticipates gold prices to reach 4200 USD per ounce by the end of this year, supported by fundamental and momentum factors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold stocks is attributed to increased investor demand for gold as a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to record high international gold prices [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose by 6.57%, reaching HKD 35.36 - Zijin Mining International (02259) increased by 3.8%, reaching HKD 152.8 - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) saw a rise of 2.97%, reaching HKD 40.86 - Tongguan Gold (00340) grew by 2.31%, reaching HKD 3.1 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis of the U.S. federal government is contributing to market uncertainty - There is an increasing expectation for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve - Continued geopolitical conflicts in various regions are driving investors to seek gold as a safe investment [1] Group 3: Gold Price Milestone - On Tuesday, gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange briefly surpassed USD 4000 per ounce - This marks the first time in history that New York gold futures have crossed this threshold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold stocks is driven by increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to record-high international gold prices [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose by 6.57%, trading at 35.36 HKD - Zijin Mining Group (02259) increased by 3.8%, trading at 152.8 HKD - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) saw a rise of 2.97%, trading at 40.86 HKD - Tongguan Gold (00340) grew by 2.31%, trading at 3.1 HKD [1] Market Conditions - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis of the U.S. federal government and heightened expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing market dynamics - Continuous geopolitical conflicts in various regions are prompting investors to increase their gold holdings for risk mitigation [1] Gold Price Milestone - On Tuesday, the price of gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange briefly surpassed 4000 USD per ounce, marking the first time in history that this threshold has been crossed [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching an all-time high of $4000.1 per ounce on October 7, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands such as Chow Sang Sang reaching 1157 RMB per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1155 RMB per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1151 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300 [3] - It is anticipated that central banks will have average net purchases of gold of 80 tons and 70 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as emerging market central banks may continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings [3]

Core Insights - International gold prices reached a historic high of $4000.1 per ounce on October 7, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1][3] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce from a previous estimate of $4300, anticipating significant net purchases of gold by central banks in emerging markets [3] Group 1: Market Trends - On October 7, gold prices in the domestic market also increased, with major retailers reporting prices for gold jewelry: Chow Sang Sang at 1157 yuan per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1155 yuan per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1151 yuan per gram [1] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - It is projected that central banks will have average net purchases of 80 tons and 70 tons of gold in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as they seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, touching $4000.1 per ounce, driven by various factors including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1] Group 1 - On July 7, gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4000 per ounce for the first time in history [1] - As of 8:33 AM Beijing time on July 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, with an increase of 0.59% [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to investors increasing their holdings in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally, leading investors to increase their gold holdings for safety [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 7, the international gold price touched $4000.1 per ounce, marking the first time it has crossed this threshold [2] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, with an increase of 0.59% [2] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Market - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang pricing their gold jewelry at 1157 yuan per gram, while Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are at 1155 yuan per gram [3] - Despite high gold prices, consumer demand remains strong, with significant foot traffic observed in major shopping districts, indicating robust purchasing power among consumers [5][6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - Consumers are actively purchasing gold jewelry, with some spending amounts ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan, particularly on wedding-related items [5] - Special promotions, such as "National Day special offers," have attracted younger consumers, with some making substantial purchases, including a complete wedding set costing 160,000 yuan [5] - Reports indicate that many consumers are traveling to major markets like Shenzhen to buy gold, reflecting a trend of combining tourism with gold purchasing [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Many institutions believe that there is still room for gold prices to rise in the future, as the market sentiment remains positive regarding gold's value retention [12]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching an all-time high of $4000.1 per ounce on October 7, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, with an increase of 0.59% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also rose, with brands like Chow Sang Sang reaching 1157 RMB per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1155 RMB per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1151 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300 per ounce [2] - It is anticipated that central banks will have average net purchases of gold of 80 tons and 70 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as emerging market central banks may continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings [2]