Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the medium to long-term hedging value of gold, highlighting recent geopolitical easing and its impact on gold prices, particularly through the performance of gold ETFs [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Recent easing of tariffs and geopolitical tensions has been observed, with significant developments such as the U.S.-China-Switzerland Geneva talks resulting in a 90-day suspension of certain reciprocal tariffs [1]. - Russian President Putin's support for a ceasefire proposal with Ukraine signals a positive trend in geopolitical conflict resolution [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The global risk appetite has been rising, leading to a recent pullback in gold prices, attributed to a decrease in safe-haven sentiment and a reduction in risk premiums due to trade easing [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflict de-escalation may further pressure gold prices in the short term [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, factors such as the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, increasing macroeconomic policy uncertainties abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. Group 4: Investment Products - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of gold (Au99.99 contract) and is closely linked to the trading price of high-purity (99.99%) physical gold in China, making it suitable for investors focused on asset preservation and inflation hedging [1]. - Investors without stock accounts may consider alternative products such as the Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) [2].

【 机构观点综评 】 兴业证券指出，全球资金配置将从过度集中于美股转向更加平衡，港股投资逻辑 从价值投资转向成长投资。华泰证券认为，中美关税摩擦短期缓解，短期政策进入观望期。 一、焦点锐评 【解读】中美日内瓦经贸会谈超预期，市场情绪明显提振，风险资产阶段性跑赢避险资产。港股大涨 （尤其是消费电子、家电等出口相关板块）、美股大涨、而黄金、中国利率债下跌。中美关税从"非理 性"高位降至可谈判水平，但后续谈判进展仍是关键，中美博弈仍将继续，不确定性仍在。对美国来 讲，关税调降延后对通胀和增长的冲击，如果进一步降级则美联储或有望降息。对中国来讲，关税对基 本面拖累减少，但同样也降低政策发力紧迫性，市场修复至关税前水平。 二、权益市场 1.景顺长城基金：关税下调，出海链企业直接受益 景顺长城基金研究团队指出，本次中美谈判的关税下调幅度大超市场预期，背后原因可能包括美国供应 链对中国的依赖，以及我国综合国力的提升，有助于提振市场短期风险偏好。配置层面，短期出口出海 链企业直接受益，相关板块有望具有阶段性相对表现，建议关注消费电子、元件、机械和汽车零部件等 出口链行业。 万家基金叶勇称，随着支撑主题投资的多种因素走弱，阶段 ...

在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

2025年，国际黄金价格出现剧烈波动。4月，国际现货黄金价格涨到3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高。但到了5月，价格又快速跌到3160美元/盎司，短短时间 跌幅超过10%。这种大幅涨跌让全球金融市场都受到了影响，不同投资者的收益情况也大不相同。 黄金价格波动的背后有多个原因。经济层面，全球经济不稳定时，投资者担心手里的钱贬值，就会大量买入黄金避险，推动价格上涨。比如经济数据差、股 市下跌时，黄金需求就会增加。相反，如果经济数据变好，或者央行准备加息，投资者觉得其他投资更划算，就会卖出黄金，价格就会下降。另外，美元和 黄金价格关系紧密，美元升值，黄金对其他国家投资者来说变贵了，需求减少，价格也会跟着降低。 但也有不少投资者亏损严重。缺乏经验的散户容易跟风操作，看到价格上涨就追着买入，等价格下跌又恐慌卖出，这样一买一卖就会亏钱。使用高杠杆投资 的人风险更大，杠杆会放大收益也会放大损失，金价稍有不利波动，就可能血本无归。黄金加工和零售企业也会受到影响，价格下跌时消费者购买意愿降 低，企业销售额和利润就会减少。 对于我们普通投资者来说，黄金投资风险和机会并存。虽然从长期看，全球经济不稳定、地缘政治冲突等因素可能继续支撑 ...

操作思路： 日线级别，金价昨日上演超级过山车走势录得低位阴转阳收盘，盘中曾一度下探3120低点后快速收复本周大部分跌幅，至此局面或令短期陷入更大空间内争 夺，交易者暂关注3150-3260范围内多空拉扯。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3415高位连续下跌后本周破位3200关口延续下探，隔夜盘中曾短暂测试3120后迅速 回升重新收复3200扩大涨势。截止当前欧盘前，价格虽回吐部分空间但仍守住3200以上范围盘踞，或有望结束单边下行后转向震荡区间运行。交易者日内以 3170--3250区间内震荡操作为主，关注短期市场突破选择。 美元指数0.2%的跌幅看似微不足道，但在特定背景下却成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。周四的行情完美诠释了这一点。在疲软经济数据打压下，周四美元 指数下跌0.2%至100.82回附近；实际利率下行：10年期TIPS收益率跌至1.8%下方。周四的数据为美联储降息创造了更大的空间，市场形成了更加鸽派的预 期。 地缘局势方面，俄乌局势在5月15日出现戏剧性转折，普京拒绝与泽连斯基会面，仅派出"二级官员代表团"。泽连斯基怒斥："这是对我个人、对埃尔多安、 对特朗普的不尊重"。俄罗斯外长发言人冷嘲："乌克兰 ...

美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战，这可能引发一系列资产价格调整，最终推高金价。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师在5月15日的报告中警告，在政治干预日益增加的背景下，美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战。这可能为金价升至 3700美元/盎司甚至4500美元/盎司奠定基础。 美联储独立性风险逐步攀升 在特朗普政府时期，公开批评联储独立性成为常态。 高盛分析表示，虽然历史上总统触动美联储的言论和压力常有，但由于"不得无因解雇"（must not fire without cause）的先例，行政干预对货币政策的直接 影响一直有限。 目前特朗普及其盟友正通过司法途径挑战"不得无因解雇"保护，一旦法院裁定取消该条款，美联储"有限的独立性"将进一步动摇。 高盛认为，若法院裁定联储官员随意解雇违反宪法，最终可能使美联储制度类似于俄罗斯、沙特的央行模式，政治干预将变得普遍。这将对美元的稳定性 和信心产生长远不良影响，美元作为全球储备货币的地位或受威胁。最终导致利率易被操控，长端利率升高，美元走弱，引发金价上行。 美元受蚕食，黄金避险地位凸显 尽管美元在国际结算中的比重仍远高于其他货币，但拜登政府、欧洲及日本央行的政策转向，已有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing decline in spot gold prices, which have reached a nearly one-month low, prompting discussions among investors about the changing role of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Recent positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions have significantly reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [3][4] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite being theoretically favorable for gold, is currently overshadowed by a rising risk appetite and a strengthening US dollar, which are exerting downward pressure on gold prices [4] Group 2 - Goldrong China, as a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers various services to help investors navigate the volatile gold market, including compliance and security measures that ensure transaction transparency and data safety [6] - The platform supports flexible trading mechanisms, allowing for T+0 trading and low spreads, enabling investors to capitalize on price fluctuations while managing risks through stop-loss and take-profit tools [7] - Educational resources and strategy support are provided to assist both novice and professional investors in optimizing their trading strategies and understanding market dynamics [7] Group 3 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure due to improved trade conditions and a stronger dollar, but long-term support factors persist, such as ongoing central bank gold purchases and inflation and debt risks [9] - The World Gold Council's China CEO suggests that investors should view gold from an asset allocation perspective, recommending a portfolio allocation of 10%-15% to avoid impulsive trading decisions [9] - The volatility in the gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the importance of rational macroeconomic analysis and the use of appropriate tools for investors to seize structural opportunities during this adjustment phase [10]

通胀风险仍存，黄金避险需求未消！现货黄金昨日反弹逾百美元，今日再次回落，近期的调整或给多头 带来中长期入场机会？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

阿里巴巴大跌超7%，网易大涨超14%。 当地时间周四，美股三大指数涨跌不一，中概股整体下挫，阿里巴巴由于营收不及预期股价下跌超7.5%。此外，黄金价格出现强势反弹，伦敦金现盘中 站上3240美元/盎司，日内一度从下跌超1.7%反弹至上涨超1.9%。 消息面上，美国4月PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）数据爆冷，环比下降0.5%，意味着企业受关税上涨的冲击较大。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在调 整其总体政策制定框架，来应对2020年后通胀和利率前景的重大变化。 阿里巴巴跌超7%，网易大涨超14% 当地时间5月15日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯指数收涨0.65%，标普500指数收涨0.41%，纳斯达克指数收跌0.18%。大型科技股出现分化走势，亚马 逊和Meta下跌超2%，特斯拉下跌1.4%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌，而奈飞上涨2.34%，微软和英特尔微涨。 中概股普遍下挫，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌2.37%。其中，阿里巴巴下跌7.53%，贝壳和百胜中国下跌超5%，京东、腾讯音乐、亿航智能、百度、蔚 来、微博、爱企业下跌超3%，禾赛、知乎、新东方下跌超2%，而网易大幅上涨14.61%，中进医疗大涨29.76%。 ...