Report Summary of Precious Metals Industry Daily (July 22, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core driver of this round of gold price rebound is the simultaneous decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to uncertainties in US fiscal and politics, and the persistent trade uncertainties brought by the approaching deadline of US - EU tariff negotiations on August 1st. The "tariff countdown" may become the main trading theme for gold in the near term. The expected high - level tariffs and the non - extension stance of the White House suppress corporate profits and risk assets, heighten concerns about potential inflation and growth impairment in the US, weaken the demand for the US dollar, and boost the safe - haven demand for gold. [3] - Market interpretations of the Fed's policy path are divided. After the release of the latest data, investors are reducing dovish bets, resulting in a "downward interest - rate trend with a slower pace" environment, which maintains the relative return of holding gold. [3] - The recent strong performance of silver has significantly repaired the gold - silver ratio compared to the beginning of the year. The tight supply situation of silver for semiconductor industry use and inventory may continue to support its potential for further repair. [3] - The US - EU tariff situation remains highly uncertain. The continuous impact of tariff risks and tax - cut bills enhances the safe - haven property of gold, and the gold price center may continue to rise. The market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September are relatively stable. The expectation of rate cuts and accelerating inflation may push down the real yield of US Treasuries, potentially benefiting the gold price. For investment, a strategy of buying gold on dips is recommended, while short - term callback risks for silver should be noted. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 784.84 yuan/gram, up 3.14 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9393 yuan/kg, up 122 yuan. [3] - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 216,722 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 476,010 lots, an increase of 8,476 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 152,454 lots, an increase of 4,916 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 137,092 lots, an increase of 2,059 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 28,857 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,199,046 kg, a decrease of 5,420 kg. [3] 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 781.5 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9314 yuan/kg, up 114 yuan. [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.34 yuan/gram, up 2.66 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 79 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holding was 947.06 tons, an increase of 3.44 tons; the silver ETF holding was 15,005.79 tons, an increase of 347.58 tons. [3] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 213,115 contracts, an increase of 10,147 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 59,448 contracts, an increase of 927 contracts. [3] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces. [3] 3.4 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.25%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.21%, down 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 18.95%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 18.95%, down 0.29%. [3] 3.5 Industry News - International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for 25% of the US industry in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates. [3] - The latest estimate by a US congressional analysis agency shows that the "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" about tariffs, stating that tariffs have had little inflationary effect so far, and emphasized the need to review the Fed's performance, while indicating that the Trump administration focuses more on the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. [3] - EU may hold a meeting this week to formulate contingency plans for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" for the first time. As the August 1st deadline for US - EU tariff negotiations approaches, Trump has taken a tougher stance. [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.5%. [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is increasing, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% expect rates to remain unchanged [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his support for rate cuts this year [3] - There are allegations from Republican congressmen that Powell committed perjury, leading to proposed criminal charges [3] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, experiencing volatile trading patterns, with a recent low of 3310 before rebounding [5] - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on August 1, gold's safe-haven appeal has increased, leading to a breakout above the 3375 resistance level, reaching nearly 3400 [5] - The bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with daily gains opening up the upper Bollinger Band space, and short-term outlook remains bullish despite pressure at the 3400 level [5][6] Group 3 - Silver has been trading in a high range between 37.3 and 35, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance to reach a new high of 39 [9] - The bullish market structure for silver is reinforced by daily and weekly charts showing upward momentum, with MA5 and MA10 maintaining a bullish crossover [9] - The focus for silver trading is on the support level around 38, with expectations for continued bullish movement [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant surge on July 21, closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, an increase of $47.09 or 1.41% [1] - The rise in gold prices was primarily driven by a sharp decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, with the dollar index (DXY) falling by 0.64% to 97.83 [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped over 6.5 basis points to 4.356%, while the real yield fell by 6 basis points to 1.946% [2] Group 2 - The impending August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations has heightened uncertainty in the market, contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products, complicating negotiations that were initially expected to result in a 10% tariff agreement [3] - The EU is considering retaliatory measures, including the use of the "nuclear option" to limit US companies' access to the €2 trillion public procurement market [3] Group 3 - Speculation regarding potential early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has created unease in the market, with discussions about the effectiveness of the Fed being raised [4] - The market sentiment is influenced by fears of inflation due to tariff-related concerns, although no significant inflation effects have been observed yet [4] Group 4 - Analysts indicate that gold prices have broken above the $3,300-$3,350 per ounce range, with bullish momentum strengthening [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen towards 60.00, suggesting that bullish sentiment is dominant [6] - If gold closes above $3,400 per ounce, it is expected to test the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, with a potential target of the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [6]

最近这金价，简直比小区门口那台总卡壳的摇摇车还离谱——伦敦金在3350美元/盎司那儿卡了快半个月，上不去下不来，跟便秘似的憋得人难受；国内金 店更绝，一克硬扛1008元，银行金条才卖786块，这两百多的差价，是把消费者当提款机还是当傻子？更魔幻的是婚庆市场，以前新人结婚砸钱买三金，现 在都学精了——租！金店那些"工艺费888""品牌溢价999"的套路，这回算是撞钢板上了。可最吓人的还不是这个，美联储那边随便放个屁，金价就得抖三 抖，特朗普怼鲍威尔两句，市场跟着过山车，散户想抄底？怕是连安全带都没系就被甩出去了！ 二、婚庆族起义：从"砸钱买三金"到"300块租三天"，年轻人终于不被面子绑架了 十年前结婚，三金是刚需，男方要是拿不出"金戒指+金项链+金镯子"，女方家长能当场把彩礼单拍你脸上。那时候金价才200多一克，50克三金也就一万 块，咬咬牙就买了。现在倒好，金价翻了四倍，50克三金直奔五万，年轻人工资才涨了多少？ 于是，"租三金"成了新潮流。上周刷短视频，刷到个婚庆公司老板吐槽："以前一天租十套婚纱，现在一天租二十套三金，租金100块/天，新人结婚用三 天，300块搞定，比买划算多了。"你想啊，买一套三金五 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies, trade tensions, and rising geopolitical risks [3][5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but manufacturing remains weak, with rising raw material costs due to tariffs, leading to increased inflation risks [3][5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have decreased from 35% to 23%, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar and put short-term pressure on gold prices [5] Group 3 - The escalation of trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing significant tariffs on imports from Japan, Brazil, and Sri Lanka, is expected to impact global trade dynamics and support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6] - Historical data suggests that during periods of heightened trade friction, gold prices typically trend upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for gold amid current trade uncertainties [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the conflict in Yemen and the Suez Canal crisis, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, with insurance premiums for war risks reaching a 15-year high [7] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, contribute to market uncertainty, further driving gold's appeal [7] Group 5 - Technically, gold prices are oscillating between key moving averages, indicating a consolidation phase, with potential for either a short-term pullback or further upward movement depending on price action around critical levels [8] Group 6 - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to its characteristics of low correlation with traditional financial assets and steady returns, making it attractive to global investors [10] - Future developments to monitor include the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, progress in August tariff negotiations, and the evolution of geopolitical situations, all of which will influence gold's trajectory [10]

当地时间7月16日晚，以色列国防军对叙利亚首都大马士革发动大规模空袭，目标直指叙利亚国防部大楼、总统府附近军事设施及总参谋部入口，造成至少3 人死亡、34人受伤。此次行动是以色列自7月14日介入叙利亚南部苏韦达省冲突以来的最大规模军事升级，直接触发联合国安理会紧急会议。安理会将于北 京时间17日18时召开闭门磋商，讨论叙利亚提出的"谴责以色列侵犯主权"议题。 一、军事升级：以色列"先发制人"背后的战略博弈 值得关注的是，美国在安理会会议前的表态出现微妙变化。白宫国家安全顾问沙利文17日凌晨表示，美国"支持安理会对局势进行全面评估"，但拒绝承诺支 持叙利亚提出的制裁议案。这种立场与以色列的紧密盟友关系形成鲜明对比，凸显美国在平衡中东盟友与国际规则间的困境。 三、黄金市场：避险情绪与政策预期的拉锯战 地缘危机升级直接冲击黄金市场。截至7月17日亚洲早盘，现货黄金报3330.53美元/盎司，较前一日高点回落近50美元，但仍较本周低点上涨1.2%。这种波 动反映出市场对地缘风险与美联储政策的双重考量： 短期避险需求支撑金价：以色列空袭叠加特朗普同日宣布对150个中小国家加征关税，引发全球贸易与安全风险共振。德意志银行 ...

美欧谈判镜花水月，再陷僵局，黄金避险大涨，将测试3400整数大关？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析， 点击进入直播间 相关链接 黄金将测试3400整数大关？ ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is currently in a trend of fluctuating upward movement, driven by renewed market risk aversion due to new tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 11, gold prices rose to $3,370 per ounce, an increase of 1.34%. The COMEX gold futures prices have been fluctuating around the high level of $3,300 per ounce, with three consecutive days of gains [2][4]. - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices oscillating around $3,300 per ounce due to repeated tariff news [4]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that uncertainty premiums have returned to the market, leading to increased safe-haven buying of gold. However, the impact of Trump's tariff policies is causing ongoing fluctuations in market expectations [3][4]. - Citigroup has indicated that the short-term volatility risk is present, as market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have already been reflected in gold prices, potentially leading to a decrease in upward momentum [3]. Speculative Positions - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6,213 contracts to 136,697 contracts, a new 11-week high. However, this was followed by a reduction of 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts in the subsequent week [4]. Central Bank Activity - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [5]. - Globally, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with over 30% of surveyed reserve managers planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year [5]. Investment Trends - Institutional investment in gold has significantly increased, with public funds and bank wealth management products expanding their "gold+" offerings, which typically allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [6]. - The number of funds of funds (FOFs) holding gold ETFs has doubled over the past four years, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, the number will reach 234, surpassing the total for 2024 [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the World Gold Council noted that individual investors often engage in short-term trading rather than long-term investment strategies, which poses challenges for sustained participation in the gold market [9][10]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising debt levels is expected to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with a trend towards increased allocation of gold assets continuing [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongrun Resources Investment Co., Ltd. has undergone significant transformations, including divesting from real estate, focusing on gold mining, and changing its controlling shareholder to a state-owned enterprise, resulting in a dramatic increase in stock price from 0.89 yuan to 10.81 yuan per share within a year, marking a 970.3% increase [2][4][5] Group 1: Company Transformation - The company has successfully divested from its real estate business, which previously accounted for 58.11% of its total revenue in 2021, and shifted its focus to mining [4][6] - In October 2024, a state-owned enterprise, Shandong Zhaojin Ruining Mining Co., Ltd., acquired a 20% stake in Zhongrun Resources, changing its actual controller to state-owned assets [4][6] - The company plans to change its name to Zhaojin International Gold Co., Ltd. and its stock abbreviation to Zhaojin Gold, reflecting its new focus on gold [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite the stock price surge, the company still faces challenges in turning around its operating losses, with a reported revenue of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024 but a net loss of 1.27 billion yuan [5][8] - The company reported a revenue of 978.6 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.79%, but still incurred a net loss of 310.47 million yuan [8] Group 3: Mining Operations - Zhongrun Resources' core asset, the Vatukoula Gold Mine in Fiji, has over 100 tons of gold resources, with current mining capacity at 750 tons per day and plans to upgrade to 2000 tons per day [2][9] - The company is investing 500 to 600 million yuan in technical upgrades for the Vatukoula Gold Mine, with expectations to resolve immediate operational issues by the end of this year [9][10] - The mine's current recovery rate is approximately 80%, with plans to enhance processing capabilities significantly [10] Group 4: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about gold prices, which have risen to over 3300 USD per ounce, providing a favorable environment for growth [6][11] - Zhongrun Resources is currently under significant institutional interest, indicating a positive market perception following its transformation [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have rebounded, with the gold ETF (518800) rising by 0.66%, and a net inflow of over 550 million yuan in the past 10 days, bringing its current scale to over 18.5 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The U.S. government has announced new unilateral tariff rates, with expectations that these tariffs will take effect on August 1, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The "Too Big to Fail" legislation has been signed, which is expected to significantly increase U.S. debt levels and weaken the dollar's credit, potentially supporting precious metal valuations [1] Group 2 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - A survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant rise from 29% last year, marking a historical high in the past eight years [2] - Long-term expectations show that 76% of central banks anticipate an increase in the proportion of gold holdings in their reserves over the next five years, up from 69% last year, indicating a growing demand for gold in a diversified international reserve system [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to purchasing physical gold [3] - The ETF primarily invests in gold spot contracts, with expected risk-return levels similar to gold assets, differing from stock, mixed, bond, and money market funds [3]