2. 周期顺风：美国增长或超预期 高盛对美国经济的看法比市场普遍定价更为乐观。该行预测2026年美国第四季度GDP同比增长2.5%，远高于目前市场隐含的约1.7% 的增长预期。 高盛认为，2026年的全球市场将迎来一个总体有利但更趋复杂的环境。投资者将面临稳健增长与通胀降温带来的周期性顺风，但同 时也必须驾驭人工智能（AI）主题下的高估值与高波动，并为潜在的宏观风险寻求保护。 据追风交易台，高盛Kamakshya Trivedi分析师团队在周四发布的一份题为《2026年市场展望：偏好火热》的报告中指出，全球经济 将呈现"稳健增长、就业停滞、物价稳定"的格局。该行预计，稳健的全球增长加上美联储的"非衰退式"降息，将为全球股市和新兴 市场资产提供一个友好背景。 然而，市场在许多方面已经领先于宏观经济。股票和信用市场，尤其是与AI相关的领域，呈现出"火热的估值"，这与宏观周期之间 形成了紧张关系，可能导致波动性上升和信用利差扩大。 对于投资者而言，这意味着在享受周期性利好的同时，需要为更颠簸的行情做好准备。高盛建议，投资组合应在承担风险的同时， 通过多元化和对冲策略来管理潜在的尾部风险。报告明确指出了美国劳动力市场 ...

本报讯(记者毛艺融)12月22日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表题为《把握中国机遇》的机构 观点。 瑞银财富管理认为，人工智能(AI)创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技行业2026年盈利大幅增长。而 有利的流动性和合理的估值，为中国股市进一步上行推助一臂之力。对于寻求多元化的投资者，瑞银财 富管理建议，广泛配置亚洲市场，尤其是科技投资趋势和盈利稳健，估值也具吸引力。 "我们预计2026年企业盈利强劲增长将推动中国科技股走高，这也是我们在全球股市中具有高确信度的 板块。"瑞银财富管理表示，除了科技股，中国股市整体前景也有所改善。国内流动性增强、盈利强劲 和散户资金为股市带来动力。 2025年是中国科技行业创新爆发的一年，在AI价值链各层面都取得显著进展。瑞银财富管理认为，中 国的新AI模型展现了技术领先能力，而政策支持强化生态系统的韧性。同时，在今年的强劲表现之 后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具上调潜力。 ...

（原标题：新股消息 | 滴灌通搁置港股上市计划 优先启动私募基金运作） 他又称，暂时搁置上市计划，让滴灌通得以全面启动本身推迟的3.0投资计划，将在2026年初正式启 动，同时同步开展MIFC私募基金募集工作，滴灌通集团将投入一亿美元自有资金，认购MIFC首期LP 份额。 此外，滴灌通表示，已非常接近在全系统完成人工智能(AI)重塑，将在2026年一季度开始全面部署滴灌 通投资算法引擎、数字获客引擎和新一代资金清分引擎。新推出的"滴灌导航图"正以AI为核心总调度 师，让小微资产的筛选、匹配与落地全流程更精准、更高效，料这一AI驱动的业务范式将成为3.0阶段 的核心竞争力之一。 公司官网显示，滴灌通集团是一家运用金融科技连结全球资本与小微企业的交易所集团。该交易所是全 球首家持牌的DRO(每日收入分成产品)交易所。6月18日，滴灌通安排新成立的"滴灌投资"以上市规则 21章投资公司申请香港IPO。由于期满6个月，滴灌通递交的港股招股书于12月18日失效。 李小加表示，MIFC的业务模式获得不少资金及资产方认可及响应。因此，决定优先启动私募基金程 序，把MIFC作为私募基金来运作，相关募资和投资部署上都会更灵活， ...

李小加表示，MIFC的业务模式获得不少资金及资产方认可及响应。因此，决定优先启动私募基金程 序，把MIFC作为私募基金来运作，相关募资和投资部署上都会更灵活，能更快进入市场，能更有效地 吸引全球大型投资机构参与，在时机更成熟时，再考虑更新A-1申请表，重新启动21章"公募基金"上市 程序。 他又称，暂时搁置上市计划，让滴灌通得以全面启动本身推迟的3.0投资计划，将在2026年初正式启 动，同时同步开展MIFC私募基金募集工作，滴灌通集团将投入一亿美元自有资金，认购MIFC首期LP 份额。 近日，港交所(00388)前行政总裁李小加创立的滴灌通发布股东信，宣布决定暂时搁置滴灌投资(MIFC) 的21章上市申请，因为公司难以在短时间完成所需的监管手续和程序，相关流程比预期需时大幅延长。 李小加解释，虽然通过21章"公募基金"上市的成功，对滴灌通的短期发展有诸多好处，但时间的不确定 性，已开始影响滴灌通整体的发展节奏。 公司官网显示，滴灌通集团是一家运用金融科技连结全球资本与小微企业的交易所集团。该交易所是全 球首家持牌的DRO(每日收入分成产品)交易所。6月18日，滴灌通安排新成立的"滴灌投资"以上市规则 21章 ...

Group 1 - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) forecasts that the growth of chemical production and industrial sectors in the U.S. will remain weak until 2026, with a projected increase of only 0.7% in 2025 and a further decline to 0.3% in 2026 [1] - Economic uncertainties have eased somewhat, but factors such as trade fluctuations and high interest rates continue to pose constraints. The growth momentum in the manufacturing sector is expected to wane due to changes in tariff policies and high customer inventory levels [1] - A recovery turning point is anticipated in mid-2026, with a gradual recovery process in the second half of the year supported by industrial capacity expansion plans and the lagging effects of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The performance of sub-markets is notably divergent, with specialty chemicals benefiting from an 8.4% growth in the coatings category, leading to an overall increase of 4.3% in 2025, although a decline of 0.2% is expected in 2026 [1] - Basic chemicals are projected to see a slight increase of 0.1% in 2025, while inorganic chemicals and plastic resin production declines offset some growth. A rebound to 1.2% growth is expected in 2026, despite a downturn in synthetic rubber and artificial fiber production [1] - Agricultural chemicals and consumer chemicals remain under pressure, with expected declines of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively in 2026, following a 2.7% increase in agricultural chemical production and a 2.2% decrease in consumer chemical production in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The end-use market shows mixed performance, with 11 out of 20 tracked markets experiencing a decline in consumption. The apparel sector sees a drop of 3%, while the semiconductor and electronics sectors lead with a 12% increase [2] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a core growth driver, boosting U.S. corporate investment growth to 4.1% in 2025, which directly stimulates demand for chemical-related products such as semiconductor materials and data center cooling systems [2] - However, non-AI sectors are affected by high interest rates and rising raw material prices, leading to a reduction in investment plans, with corporate investment growth expected to fall to 2.6% in 2026 [2]

今日（12月22日）早盘，截至发稿，电子板块获主力资金净流入155.77亿元，板块吸金额高居31个申万 一级行业首位！热门ETF方面，荟聚电子板块核心龙头的电子ETF（515260）场内涨幅一度上探 2.37%，现涨2.05%，盘中收复10日均线。 细分方向来看，半导体设备龙头方面，拓荆科技涨超6%，盛美上海涨逾5%；PCB（印制电路板）龙头 方面，东山精密涨超6%，深南电路涨逾5%，生益科技、鹏鼎控股、沪电股份携手涨超4%。 图：电子ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万 -- 级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 拓荆科技 | 6.20% Vann | | 电子 | 半导体 | 非导体设备 | 978亿 | 12.25亿 | | 2 | 东山精密 | 6.18% mm | | 电子 | 元件 | 印制电路板 | 14711Z | 22.14亿 | | 3 | 华工科技 | 5.44% mm | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has approved a $5 billion collaboration agreement between AI chip giants Nvidia and Intel [1][3] - Nvidia will purchase Intel shares at $23.28 per share to jointly develop AI and chip technologies for next-generation personal computing products and data centers [3] - This partnership aims to integrate Nvidia's GPU technology with Intel's CPU technology, enhancing their competitive position against rivals like TSMC and AMD [3] Group 2 - The communication ETF (515880) has seen significant inflows, with over 1.2 billion yuan net inflow in the past five days, and has risen over 120% year-to-date, making it the top-performing ETF in the market [1][10] - The ETF has a total scale exceeding 13 billion yuan, with nearly 50% of its holdings in optical modules, and over 20% in servers, indicating a strong focus on AI-related infrastructure [10][11] - The demand for AI applications is leading to cost savings of 9% to 11% across various industries, although it may also result in job reductions for certain workers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor secondary market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with key manufacturers successfully launching IPOs, notable mergers failing, and the market capitalization of a few giants repeatedly reaching new heights. This article emphasizes the need to analyze the current industry landscape and the role of Chinese companies within the global semiconductor market [1]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Overview - As of mid-December 2025, there are 35 companies from China (17 from mainland China, 16 from Taiwan, and 2 from Hong Kong) in the global top 100 semiconductor companies by market capitalization, accounting for approximately 35% of the total [1]. - Notably, companies like Moore Threads and Muxi, which recently completed their IPOs, have market capitalizations of approximately 470 billion USD and 440 billion USD respectively, indicating their potential to rank among the top 25 globally [2]. Group 2: Major Players and Their Market Dynamics - The top three companies, Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC, have market capitalizations exceeding 1 trillion USD, reflecting their significant control over the semiconductor industry [5]. - Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately 4.26 trillion USD, marking it as the highest in the semiconductor sector and the world, driven by its pivotal role in AI computing [5]. - Broadcom's market capitalization is around 1.7 trillion USD, supported by its strategic positioning in custom AI ASICs and networking chips [5]. - TSMC holds a market capitalization of about 1.5 trillion USD, recognized for its advanced manufacturing capabilities [6]. Group 3: Storage and Memory Sector - The market capitalization of major memory companies has surged, with SK Hynix at approximately 258.6 billion USD (up 218%), Micron at about 271.4 billion USD (up nearly 175%), and Samsung at around 475.5 billion USD (almost doubling) [7]. - This growth indicates a shift in the value logic of DRAM, as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) becomes essential for high-performance computing systems [7]. Group 4: Equipment and Measurement Companies - Equipment and measurement companies are experiencing significant growth, with ASML at approximately 419.5 billion USD (up nearly 50%), and both Applied Materials and Lam Research surpassing 200 billion USD [8]. - The increasing complexity of manufacturing processes in the AI era is driving demand for advanced equipment and measurement solutions [9]. Group 5: Design Companies and Market Differentiation - Design companies are showing varied performance, with AMD at approximately 343.1 billion USD (up nearly 69%), while Qualcomm's growth is more modest at around 192.4 billion USD (up about 10%) [10]. - This differentiation reflects the varying market expectations and growth potential across different segments of the semiconductor design landscape [10]. Group 6: Chinese Semiconductor Landscape - Chinese companies are diversely positioned within the semiconductor industry, with 17 companies from mainland China primarily focused on manufacturing, equipment, and design [14]. - Taiwan's companies, such as TSMC and MediaTek, play a central role in the global semiconductor supply chain, while mainland China's companies are increasingly establishing their presence in critical segments [13][14]. - The recent IPOs of Moore Threads and Muxi highlight the growing importance of AI computing capabilities within China's semiconductor sector [15]. Group 7: Hong Kong's Role in the Semiconductor Market - Companies from Hong Kong, such as ASMPT and Silicon Motion, serve as connectors between global supply chains and capital markets, playing a stabilizing role in the semiconductor ecosystem [16].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant shortage in storage capacity, leading to soaring prices. Major companies like Micron and SanDisk are seeking partnerships with Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) to quickly ramp up production capacity in response to high demand [1][2]. Group 1: Company Collaborations - Micron is in discussions with PSMC to utilize its newly completed facility, which has the potential to add 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month, to meet urgent production needs [1][2]. - There are at least three collaboration models being discussed between Micron and PSMC: a pure foundry model, a technology transfer model, and a distribution model that allows PSMC to retain a portion of the produced wafers for its own sales [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The global semiconductor industry is intensifying competition, particularly among South Korean manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix, who are accelerating their storage production to meet the rising demand from AI servers [4]. - Samsung is increasing the utilization of its DRAM and NAND flash production lines and plans to resume construction at its Pyeongtaek plant, aiming for mass production by 2028 [4]. - SK Hynix is preparing to launch its new M15X plant focused on DRAM and AI-oriented storage products, with plans to complete a new wafer fab by 2027 [4]. - The global DRAM market is projected to reach $170 billion by 2026, up from $100 billion in 2024, highlighting the growing importance of production capacity as a competitive factor [4].

AI可以极大程度地解放生产力，尤其在科研领域，它可以让繁冗的数据分析等工作大幅提速，让科研 人员将更多精力投入到创造性环节，进而提高科研效率。但对于AI向普通生活的入侵，尤其对其经由 语言系统"侵蚀大脑"的趋势，则需保持批判性审视的态度。 我们每个人都应持有一份清醒和自觉，和AI保持一定距离，始终把它圈定在"工具角色"的范围之内。我 们可以善用它在检索和整合上的优长，甚至将其作为参考启发、润色校正的助手，但不能逾越"雷池"， 让其直接代笔成为"脑替"。 未来，AI势必会接手人类更多的琐碎事务，成为工作、生活的参与者，但不应成为"主导者"。具体到语 言应用上，我们不应向AI交出自己的"语言权"。让技术的归技术、文化的归文化，或许才是我们的正确 选择。 （文章来源：科技日报） AI的普及是迅速的，"开源"之后，AI生成的文本大量流入社会生活。无论是常用文书，还是社交平台、 网络电商的文本文案，文风都为之一变。 这是一种什么样的语言呢？人们一定很难忘记初见它时的惊讶：结构严谨，语法完美，逻辑流畅，辞采 斐然，术语翻飞，比喻排比迭出……但这种没有瑕疵的语言慢慢传递出一种冰冷的"工业味"：模式化、 套路化，如同一种新型 ...