Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical development of the internet since the 1990s and the Dot-com bubble, drawing parallels to the current trends in AI development, suggesting that understanding past trends can provide insights into future industry and market dynamics [1][7]. Industry Perspective - The challenge lies in grasping the "timing" and "development path" of the industry. While the trends in the internet industry can be anticipated, accurately pinpointing the timing and specific forms of development is challenging. For instance, the World Wide Web and PCs were not initially mainstream forms [3][19]. - The early internet's core features included open cooperation, network effects, and decentralization, which ultimately shaped its evolution. The transition from localized networks to a unified internet infrastructure was not initially predictable [11][12]. - The early internet's leading companies leveraged their resource advantages to dominate the market, a trend that may re-emerge in the current AI landscape [19]. Market Perspective - The Dot-com bubble was a culmination of a long bull market in the U.S., with significant growth in internet penetration from 0% to 30% between 1990 and 1998. This period saw a surge in IPOs for internet-related companies [20][34]. - The valuation logic for companies shifted during the bubble, with non-rational factors dominating market trends. After the bubble burst, the market returned to fundamentals, leading to a significant drop in bandwidth costs by 90% and a talent surplus in computing [20][29]. Insights - The current AI trend is seen as entering an application phase, with the ultimate goal being AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). However, there is no consensus on the path or timeline to achieve this [4][36]. - The emergence of open-source AI technologies like DeepSeek is likened to the early internet's transition to open applications, potentially democratizing access to AI capabilities [38][45]. - The article suggests that the current AI development phase may mirror the early internet era, where initial applications are being developed, and the market is still defining its standards and models [39][41]. Conclusion - The historical analysis indicates that while identifying major trends is relatively straightforward, determining the timing and specific forms of development is complex. The interplay of necessity and randomness plays a crucial role in shaping industry trajectories [19][34]. - The article emphasizes that the aftermath of the Dot-com bubble laid the groundwork for sustainable business models and infrastructure, which could similarly apply to the current AI landscape as it matures [35][42].

Core Insights - The conversation focuses on the transition from generative AI to agentic AI, highlighting Salesforce's new offering, Agentforce, which aims to enhance customer and employee interactions through autonomous AI agents [2][3][4] - Salesforce has reported significant growth, achieving its first $10 billion quarter, with Agentforce being the fastest-growing product in its lineup [7][12] - The digital labor revolution is identified as a major opportunity, estimated to be worth between $3 trillion and $12 trillion, as companies begin to integrate digital workers alongside human employees [4][5][15] Company Developments - Salesforce has been involved in AI for over a decade, with its Einstein platform being a leading enterprise AI solution, processing approximately one trillion AI transactions weekly [3][4] - The company is not planning to hire additional software engineers this year, as existing engineers are becoming more productive with new AI tools [14] - Agentforce has seen rapid adoption, with 5,000 transactions reported in a recent quarter, including 3,000 paid transactions, indicating strong customer interest [7][12] Competitive Landscape - Salesforce differentiates itself from competitors like Microsoft by offering a more integrated and user-friendly approach to AI solutions, avoiding the complexities associated with Microsoft's Copilot [11][12] - The architecture of Salesforce's platform is emphasized as a key factor in its success, allowing for seamless integration of AI capabilities across various business functions [13][19] - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions like Slack and Tableau into its ecosystem, enhancing their value through the addition of agentic capabilities [20][22] Future Outlook - The CEO predicts a shift towards lower-cost infrastructure for AI deployment, as companies invest heavily in data centers [26][27] - The large language model (LLM) market is described as a commodity space, with ongoing competition driving innovation and cost reduction [27][29] - There is optimism about the future of artificial general intelligence (AGI), although its definition and timeline remain uncertain [30][31]

This account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. We look for innovations in a business model that will cause a stock to change dramatically. Associated with SA contributor Elijah Buell.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial lo ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Overweight" for the industry, indicating an expectation that the industry stock index will outperform the benchmark [61]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the emergence of AI agents as a transformative technology, highlighting their ability to automate complex tasks and enhance productivity across various sectors [14][32]. - Manus AI is identified as a leading general AI agent, showcasing superior performance in handling complex tasks compared to other AI assistants [14][41]. - The report discusses the engineering phase of AI agents, focusing on their integration into complex data scenarios and the importance of data value in their development [27][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AI agent industry is entering a phase of engineering, with advancements in user interface development and memory management technologies [27][28]. - Companies like Workday are launching AI agent management systems to enhance efficiency and data security in enterprise environments [32]. Technology and Performance - Manus AI has achieved state-of-the-art results in benchmark tests, particularly excelling in complex task execution [13][14]. - The technology architecture of Manus AI includes various models that support its capabilities, indicating a robust framework for task automation [17][18]. Market Trends - The report notes a growing trend of AI agents being utilized in both personal and enterprise settings, with applications ranging from recruitment automation to payroll processing [33][32]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Tencent and ByteDance, which are actively developing AI agents for diverse applications [30][32]. Future Outlook - The report predicts that AI agents will continue to evolve, enhancing their task planning and tool usage capabilities, moving towards more autonomous and generalized functions [41][42]. - The potential for multi-agent collaboration is highlighted, suggesting that AI agents can work together to solve complex problems and improve overall efficiency [48][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][38]. Core Insights - The launch of the AI agent platform Manus signifies a maturation of intelligent agent capabilities, with significant market interest and a rapid increase in computational token consumption [4][11]. - Manus is designed to integrate various capabilities, including planning, tool usage, and memory, which are essential for executing complex tasks and will lead to a substantial increase in computational demand [4][12]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic computational power sector is currently the largest investment theme, with recommendations to focus on companies benefiting from capital expenditures by CSPs and operators [5][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The telecommunications industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][38]. Market Performance - The overall market saw an increase during the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, with the Shenwan Communications Index rising by 2.81% and the STAR Market Index increasing by 2.67% [6][14]. Key Developments - The Manus AI platform has been released, showcasing advanced capabilities in handling various tasks, which has garnered significant attention in the market [4][11]. - The report highlights that the introduction of Manus will lead to a dramatic increase in the consumption of computational tokens, with a single task running cost estimated at approximately $2, significantly lower than previous models [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic computational power, particularly in sectors such as servers, switches, optical modules, and IDC infrastructure, which are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures [5][13]. - It also recommends monitoring overseas computational sectors for innovations in NV technology and ASIC capital expenditures, especially with upcoming events like GTC2025 [5][14]. - Attention is drawn to edge AI applications, particularly in IoT modules and edge computing, as they align with privacy compliance requirements [5][14]. Notable Companies to Watch - Domestic computational power: Unisplendour, Ruijie Networks, Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Chaoxun Communication, Langwei Co [5][15]. - Overseas computational power: NewEase, Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, Taicheng Light, Guangku Technology, Dingtong Technology, Wolong Nuclear Materials [5][15]. - Edge AI: Guanghetong, Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent, Yuntian Leifeng, Yinghantong, Tianzhun Technology, Heertai, Tuobang Co [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][24]. Core Insights - Manus has significantly increased the attention on AI Agents, indicating a strengthening trend in the industry. AI Agents are expected to become the next mainstream AI product form, succeeding Chatbots. They are capable of executing tasks autonomously, browsing the web, conducting research, developing code, analyzing data, creating content, and replaying tasks. This evolution is seen as a necessary step towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [6][17][24]. - The AI+Healthcare sector is experiencing rapid catalysts, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. The establishment of AI-assisted diagnostic solutions and the integration of AI technologies into healthcare software are expected to create differentiated advantages for companies in this space. The domestic healthcare software market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a total market size of 35.75 billion yuan by 2028 [21][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 3 to March 7, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index increased by 6.74%. The top five performing stocks in the sector were Lifan Holdings, Yunding Technology, Zhiyuan Huilian, Xinkaipu, and Shisheng Intelligent [11]. Industry News - The 14th National People's Congress opened on March 5, 2025, where Premier Li Qiang emphasized the continuous promotion of "AI+" actions, integrating digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages, and supporting the widespread application of large models [15]. Key Company Announcements - Jinli Technology announced plans to sign a fund cooperation agreement to invest in the "14+7" strategic emerging industry cluster in Nanshan District, Shenzhen [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with foresight in the AI Agent field and those possessing industry know-how are likely to benefit first. The report highlights specific companies to watch in the AI Agent and computing power sectors, including Dingjie Zhizhi, Yonyou Network, Saiyi Information, Haiguang Information, and Yunsai Zhili. In the AI+Healthcare sector, companies such as Rundar Medical, Neusoft Group, Chuangye Huikang, and Jiuyuan Yinhai are recommended [24][26].

以下文章来源于盐财经 ，作者张旦珺 洞察趋势，睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 争抢人才。 盐财经 . 作者 | 张旦珺 来源 | 盐财经 （ID：nfc-yancaijing） 市场对寻求AI人才的渴望，到了按图索骥的程度。 晚点latepost曾在报道中记录过这样一个细节：当一位投资人循着AI论文上的名字一个 个去拜访时，发现他们此前都与张一鸣单独见过面，其中包括尚未毕业的博士生。 这是一个信号，意味着互联网大厂正在使用它们的最大能量挖掘AI领域的人才。 不只是顶尖精英，对于任何一个处于快速爆发期的行业来说，支撑业务落地的基础岗位 员工也会成为争夺的焦点。2月中旬，阿里巴巴AI To C业务开启大规模招聘，开放岗位 达到数百个；几乎在同一时间，腾讯旗下AI助手腾讯元宝开启"热招"。 腾讯元宝开启"热招" /图源：腾讯招聘 当焦灼、激烈、残酷的AI竞赛发生时，属于个人的机会就出现了——各大公司率先捧出 的招聘诚意，就是薪资。 今年农历新年之初，超级独角兽DeepSeek就曾因高薪招人引发了大量关注。 根据DeepSeek母公司幻方量化发布的招聘信息，所有招聘岗位年薪均至少约50万元， 部分岗位如深度学 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift from strong beta to strong alpha in the computer industry, suggesting a focus on sectors with significant growth potential such as AI applications, cloud computing, and domestic innovation [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) expectations, highlighting that the release of Manus has intensified market interest in AGI, which could lead to a significant evolution in technology companies and AI applications [7][8]. - The RISC-V open-source ecosystem is rapidly developing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% for RISC-V based SoCs, expected to reach 20 billion units by 2024 and over 200 billion by 2031 [9][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies within the RISC-V ecosystem and those involved in AI, cloud computing, and domestic innovation, such as Haiguang Information, Keda Information, and others [8][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry index rose by 6.46% from March 2 to March 8, outperforming the ChiNext index by 4.85 percentage points [21][22]. - The report notes that the current momentum in the computer industry is comparable to the upward trend observed from 2018 to 2020, but with stronger potential this time [4][6]. RISC-V Ecosystem - RISC-V architecture is rapidly evolving, characterized by its modularity and open-source nature, which allows for high scalability and low energy consumption [11][12]. - The domestic RISC-V ecosystem is thriving, with major companies like Alibaba and Huawei actively participating, and the RISC-V International Foundation has over 4000 members from 52 countries [9][14]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Haiguang Information, Cambrian, and Loongson Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of domestic software and hardware [19][20]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the computer industry has shown strong performance, with significant weekly gains and a notable increase in trading volume [21][22]. - Specific stocks such as Xinkai Pu and Hengfeng Information have seen substantial weekly increases, indicating strong market interest [23]. Major News - The report covers significant developments in AI, including the launch of the QwQ-32B model by Alibaba, which demonstrates competitive performance with significantly fewer parameters compared to existing models [36]. - The report also notes the increasing deployment of AI technologies in the financial sector, with multiple institutions adopting the DeepSeek model for various applications [44].

Core Viewpoint - Manus has gained attention in the media but is not as popular as DeepSeek, with mixed reviews regarding its performance and capabilities [1][2][12]. Group 1: Product Performance - Manus is described as an impressive AI tool by some, but it is built on existing AI models with deep fine-tuning, including Claude and Qwen, which raises questions about its originality [2]. - Early user feedback indicates frequent errors and issues with information accuracy, with some users reporting that Manus fails to complete tasks efficiently compared to competitors like Deep Research [3][4][5]. - Despite some positive feedback regarding its ability to generate research reports, users have expressed concerns about its scalability and economic viability, as operational costs may exceed revenue potential [7][8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The platform's rapid growth in user interest is attributed to a scarcity effect created by limited invitations and media hype, positioning Manus as a "breakthrough" in AI [12]. - There is competition from larger companies that are expected to launch similar products, which could disrupt Manus's market position [10]. - Manus's operational costs are significant, with estimates suggesting that each task could cost around $2, leading to potential financial strain as user numbers grow [9]. Group 3: Company Response and Future Outlook - Manus's team is focused on continuous improvement and addressing user feedback, indicating a commitment to refining the product despite current limitations [11]. - The company acknowledges that it is still in the early access phase and is working to expand its capabilities while addressing performance issues [12].

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 1、本周 观 点： 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 2、深度跟 踪： RISC-V 开源生态：正在快速崛起的国产化分支 周观点 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。 鉴于本轮计算机行业的业绩趋势与产业变化的特征，目前暂判断其动能与 2018-2020 年上行趋势具有可比性，但预计本轮会更强一些。综合 来看，全年板块收益的贝塔属性仍在，但将收敛，挖掘阿尔法是未来的胜负手。当前的位置，建议重点关注产业变化更显著、成长空间更大的细分方向，比如 AI 应用、 云计算、信创、 eCall 等方向；对于看重中短期业绩兑现的方向，需聚焦到具备业绩持续超预期能力的公司。 高度重视 AGI 预期发酵。 Manus 的发布，正打开 AGI 预期发酵的大门。 AGI 是人工智能的终极目标，伴随着 Manus 的发布，市场对 AGI 的预期正在升温，同时也 有望加快科技大厂在 AGI 领域的进化速度，以及各应用场景的 AI Agent 落地速度。需要高度重视的是：从投资的长期视角来看， AGI 的预期发酵往往是 AI 投资的最 后冲刺阶段；但从中期视角来看，如果 AGI 的预期发酵能得到产业变化的持续 ...