Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political crisis surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who may face dismissal before the end of his term in 2026 due to pressure from President Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][27]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell's probability of being dismissed has surged from 15% to 38% within two weeks, marking a significant political crisis for a sitting Fed Chair [1]. - The Trump administration has initiated the selection process for a new Fed Chair, indicating a potential power transition that could undermine the Fed's policy independence [3][27]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor, is the leading candidate for Powell's successor, having a close relationship with Trump and aligning with his economic policies [4][6]. - Hassett faces criticism for lacking practical monetary policy experience and has the lowest support among financial professionals at 7% [7][9]. - Other candidates include Treasury Secretary Becerra (26% support), former Fed Governor Warsh (17% support), and current Fed Governor Waller (14% support) [10][12][14]. Group 3: Trump's Expectations - Trump demands that the new Fed Chair must comply with his directive to lower interest rates and align with his "MAGA economic agenda," emphasizing a quick selection process [16][18]. - Concerns arise regarding the potential political interference in monetary policy, reminiscent of past instances where political pressures led to detrimental economic outcomes [23][25]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The new Fed Chair will face significant challenges, including rising inflation due to tariffs, concerns over the Fed's independence, and a weakening economic momentum [20][21]. - The outcome of the leadership transition could have profound implications for the global financial order, particularly if Hassett's appointment leads to a politicized monetary policy [27][28].

鲍威尔回应特朗普政府指责：美联储翻修始终接受严格监督。 当地时间7月16日，有消息显示，一位白宫官员称，美国总统特朗普可能很快解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。 但随后特朗普对该消息进行否认，特朗普说，"鲍威尔很糟糕，没有做好本职工作"。不过，对于多家美 国媒体稍早前关于"特朗普可能将很快解雇鲍威尔"的报道，特朗普称，目前没有计划采取任何行动，也 没有像一些美媒报道的那样起草了解雇信件。 END 潜望系列深度报道丨股事会专栏丨投资小红书丨e公司调查丨时报会客厅丨十大明星私募访谈丨丨丨丨 丨外资，爆买A股！丨丨丨美联储，重磅发布！丨丨国常会重磅部署！ 鲍威尔明确表示，美联储并不隶属于国家首都规划委员会(NCPC)，而是"自愿协作"，其工程监督权归 属于董事会与内部监察机构。他的声明意在捍卫美联储独立性，并回应外界对其财政管理和政策独立性 的质疑。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗普 政府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。 当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储总部翻修工程成本超支足以成为解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的 理由 ...

鲍威尔回应特朗普政府指责：美联储翻修始终接受严格监督。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗普政 府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。 当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储总部翻修工程成本超支足以成为解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的理 由。特朗普当天在机场与记者交谈时，被问及装修问题是否构成"可被解雇的行为"，特朗普说："我认为算 是。" 当地时间7月17日，针对特朗普政府高级官员指控美联储总部翻修"奢华浪费"，美联储主席鲍威尔以书面 方式逐条回应，强调工程自2017年获批以来始终接受严格监督。 当地时间7月16日，有消息显示，一位白宫官员称，美国总统特朗普可能很快解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。但 随后特朗普对该消息进行否认，特朗普说，"鲍威尔很糟糕，没有做好本职工作"。不过，对于多家美国媒 体稍早前关于"特朗普可能将很快解雇鲍威尔"的报道，特朗普称，目前没有计划采取任何行动，也没有像 一些美媒报道的那样起草了解雇信件。 鲍威尔在回信中强调，美联储总部及附属建筑存在严重结构老化问题，需更换含石棉、铅的材料，并全面 更新电 ...

多位大银行 CEO 也公开表达了对美联储独立性的维护。他们警告，破坏美联储的独立性可能带来危险后果：短期会引发市场恐慌，长期则会削弱美元的储 备货币地位和美国金融市场的全球吸引力。摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头的掌门人纷纷表态，强调美联储不受政治干预是美国经济稳定的基石，这种共识形 成了强大的舆论压力，让特朗普在采取实际行动前不得不三思。 从市场反应来看，投资者的押注已得到初步验证。在特朗普升级施压后的几个交易日里，美国国债市场虽出现短暂波动，但 10 年期国债收益率仅小幅上升 5 个基点，远低于 2018 年美联储主席被公开批评时的波动幅度。这表明市场已部分消化了政治噪音，对美联储政策的信任度仍在。同时，美元指数保持稳 定，美股也未出现恐慌性抛售，显示出市场对 "政治威胁难落地" 的预期已成为主流。 深入分析可见，投资者的信心源于多重约束条件。从法律层面看，美联储主席的任免程序并非总统单方面决定，需经过参议院批准，而当前参议院的政治格 局使得解雇鲍威尔的提案难以通过。从政治逻辑看，特朗普若强行推动撤换，可能引发与司法系统的对峙，分散其竞选精力，得不偿失。从经济现实看，当 前美国经济虽有韧性，但尚未到需要紧急降息 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Pay attention to marginal changes in inventory [1] - Alumina: Oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Weaker than electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - Morgan Stanley believes that regardless of the next Fed chair, the dovish influence will grow, and the US stocks may continue to rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to reach an agreement with the US and obtain more favorable tariff rates than Indonesia [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,589 dollars, up 14 dollars from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,089 yuan, down 22 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai alumina main contract also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,845 yuan, up 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased compared with previous periods [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,954.53 yuan, up 47.36 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina** - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,196 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 249 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 305 yuan, down 31 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The three - place inventory totaled 28,328 tons, up 332 tons from T - 1 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]. - **Market News** - Morgan Stanley believes that the US stocks may rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to get more favorable tariff rates in the negotiation with the US [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the notion of the Federal Reserve being free from political pressure is a "myth," and bets on interest rate cuts will drive U.S. stocks higher [2][3] - The current situation is compared to the historical conflict between President Lyndon Johnson and Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, highlighting the ongoing tension regarding the Fed's independence [2][3] - Analysts warn that if former President Trump were to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, it could disrupt financial markets and lead to significant legal confrontations [3] Group 2 - Executives from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs emphasize the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, noting that any new chair must gain support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for interest rate adjustments [4] - There is a divergence in rate expectations among policymakers regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, primarily due to differing views on how Trump's tariffs will impact inflation [4] - The market is expected to soon recognize Powell's effective "exit" and begin pricing in the policies of the next potential chair, with a "dovish race" anticipated among candidates like Hassett, Waller, or Walsh [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rumor of Trump firing Powell caused significant market volatility within an hour, highlighting the potential financial impact of political interference on the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the rumor, market risk aversion surged, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and the dollar, while assets like gold and Bitcoin rose [1]. - During the hour of speculation, the probability of Powell being dismissed increased by approximately 15 percentage points, nearing a peak of 40% [2]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggested that if the probability of dismissal reached near 100%, the market impact could be four times greater than the initial reaction [2]. Group 2: Legal and Structural Vulnerabilities - The market's reaction was partly due to investors recognizing the legal pathways for political intervention, as the President can fill vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board without Senate approval during recess [3]. - The U.S. economy's structural weaknesses, including significant twin deficits and negative international investment positions, amplify the risks of capital outflows and dollar depreciation if investor confidence is shaken [3]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ultimate impact of such political events will depend on the Federal Reserve's internal unity and the broader macroeconomic context [4]. - If inflation remains moderate and close to the Fed's 2% target, conflicts between the White House's push for rate cuts and the Fed's policy objectives may lessen, potentially stabilizing market reactions [4]. - Conversely, if high inflation persists while political pressure mounts for monetary policy changes, it could lead to severe financial turmoil [4].

"无论对错，投资者并不认真看待总统关于撤换鲍威尔主席的言论，因为这显然会破坏投资者对其经济 领导力的信心，且几乎注定失败。"投资银行Evercore荣誉董事长拉尔夫·施洛斯斯坦（Ralph Schlosstein）表示，"美联储独立性对我们的经济稳定、美元作为世界储备货币的地位以及全球投资者为 美国赤字融资的意愿都至关重要。" 大型投资者正押注特朗普不会真正兑现其撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的威胁。 据知情人士透露，债券巨头——太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）虽清楚此举可能引发美国国债市场剧烈 波动，但并未因特朗普的威胁调整持仓。 本周早些时候，这家债券管理机构在致客户报告中驳斥了特朗普要求美联储主席辞职及施压央行立即降 息的举动，称"这两者似乎都不太可能实现"。 其他投资者和银行家表示，任何撤换鲍威尔的举动都可能引发市场震荡，损害美债等资产的信心，从而 让特朗普三思而行。多位大银行CEO也警告，破坏美联储独立性可能带来危险后果。 Pimco在报告中指出，共和党在参议院的微弱优势（53席）可能给确认程序带来变数。该公司特别提到 北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）不再寻求连任，且与特朗普关系 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, calls for comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests forming a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, which has garnered significant attention in financial and political circles [1][3]. Group 1: Credibility Issues - Warsh emphasizes the need for "mechanism reform" in policy execution, indicating a deep-seated concern regarding the current Federal Reserve's credibility, which is essential for effective monetary policy and financial stability [3]. - He directly challenges the current Federal Reserve officials, suggesting that the credibility issue stems from their actions, which poses a public challenge to the leadership of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - Warsh is considered a strong candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, aligning closely with President Trump's demand for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which enhances his standing in Trump's eyes [4]. - If Warsh were to assume leadership, a fundamental shift in the Federal Reserve's operational style could occur, potentially leading to conflicts with existing members who uphold traditional decision-making processes [4][6]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's dissatisfaction with current chair Jerome Powell is evident, as he has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation, indicating a desire for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Warsh's potential appointment could fulfill Trump's economic agenda, allowing him to demonstrate control over economic policy while possibly stimulating investment and consumption through lower interest rates [5]. Group 4: Risks of Policy Alliance - Establishing a policy alliance between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury could enhance short-term policy coordination but risks undermining the Federal Reserve's independence, which is crucial for maintaining price stability and preventing inflation [6]. - Internal conflicts between Warsh and existing Federal Reserve members could hinder decision-making efficiency and policy coherence, leading to delays in responding to complex economic conditions and increasing market uncertainty [6].

特朗普政府正将美联储一项25亿美元的总部翻新工程作为政治武器，对主席鲍威尔发起一场日益激烈的 公开施压运动。"新美联储通讯社"分析认为，特朗普试图通过侵蚀鲍威尔公众信任度，迫使其在利率政 策上做出让步，甚至最终辞职。 近日，白宫围绕美联储装修的抨击持续升级，白宫高级顾问通过社交媒体嘲讽美联储装修为浪费，白宫 预算主管Russ Vought则致信鲍威尔提出质询。美国总统特朗普则公开表示，他认为解雇鲍威尔的可能 性"非常低"，但紧接着补充说，"除非他因欺诈而必须离开"。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新文章表示，围绕建筑装修的争议，实质上 已将斗争从政策辩论转移至更具公众影响力的舆论场。通过将焦点对准一个具体的政府开支案例，而非 深奥的货币政策，特朗普的盟友试图在政治上重创鲍威尔。此举旨在动摇市场对美联储独立性的信心， 并迫使鲍威尔在捍卫机构信誉与屈从政治压力之间做出艰难抉择。 面对压力，鲍威尔表示将捍卫美联储的独立性。Timiraos文章称，鲍威尔在公开和私下场合都明确表 示，他认为保护美联储不受政治干预地设定利率的能力是其任期剩余10个月的关键目标： 辞职，或者不战而退， ...