Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The natural rubber market is expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand, with short positions above 14,000 to be held [4][6]. - The polysilicon market faces a mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations, with prices likely to be under pressure in July. Short positions should be held cautiously [7][8]. - The industrial silicon market may experience low - level fluctuations. Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but there are still uncertainties in demand and inventory [8][10]. - The soda ash market is again dominated by the surplus logic, and the glass market has weakened as spot sales have declined. High - level short positions in soda ash should be held, and the glass price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [11][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices**: As of June 30, cup rubber was 48.05 (+0.90) Thai baht/kg, and latex was 56.00 (-1.00) Thai baht/kg. Yunnan glue acquisition price was 13,600 (0) yuan/ton, and Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 (0) yuan/ton [4]. - **Tire Data**: As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing, and some semi - steel tire enterprises are reducing production due to inventory pressure. The price is expected to be weak, and short positions above 14,000 should be held [6]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 30, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 28,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly output decreased by 900 tons to 23,600 tons. It is expected that the output will increase in July. The demand is continuously decreasing, and downstream product prices are falling [7]. - **Inventory**: On June 26, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons [8]. - **Logic**: In July, the futures price increased with reduced positions. The cost of industrial silicon provides support, but the demand is still weak. The price is likely to be under pressure if there is no significant production cut [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 26, the average market price of oxygen - containing Si5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,150 yuan/ton, and that of Si4210 was 8,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May 2025, the output increased by 2.3% month - on - month. In June, the output is expected to reach 340,000 - 350,000 tons. The demand has recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak [9]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts, social inventory, and factory inventory have all decreased [9]. - **Logic**: Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase. The price may fluctuate at a low level [10]. Soda Ash - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of heavy soda ash was around 1,300 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the domestic soda ash output was 716,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [11]. - **Logic**: The surplus logic dominates the market again. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. High - level short positions should be held [12][13]. Glass - **Spot Prices**: The average transaction price in Shahe was around 1,100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the daily output of national float glass was 156,800 tons, a 0.87% increase from the 19th. This week, the output was 1.0909 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [11]. - **Logic**: Spot sales have weakened. The market is in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [13].

2025 年下半年硅 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：新疆产能继续释放，内蒙及甘肃新增产能填补了西南减产缺口，结构性过剩矛盾突出。据百川，上半年国内工业硅总产量达 | | | 185.6万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比下滑14.9%；主产地占比为新疆53.2%、内蒙12.3%、甘肃10.4%、云南5 %、四川4.5%；上半年开炉量下 | | | 滑53台至215台，开炉率下滑8.3%至27.2%。 | | | 2、需求：光伏抢装带领晶硅需求集中前置，但降库存导致向上传导不佳，有机硅抢出口成为主增量。上半年国内工业硅消费测算量92.9 | | | 万吨，同比下滑34.9%。其中DMC产量102.4万吨，同比增长27.4%，测算工业硅用量约53.2万吨；多晶硅产量57.5万吨，同比下滑45.3%， | | | 测算工业硅用量约74.7万吨；1-5月铝合金产量740.5万吨，同比增长16.7%，预计上半年铝合金产量88 ...

消息面上，国家能源局6月23日发布数据显示，截至5月底，全国太阳能发电装机容量达10.8亿千瓦，同 比增长56.9%，光伏装机持续高速增长。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东方财富证券指出，电力设备行业整体处于周期底部，板块分化延续，部分环节如电池、负极出现盈利 拐点，后续关注旺季排产及价格修复。光伏设备方面，全球装机需求增速换挡，供给相对过剩常态化， 效率及成本技术创新为破卷唯一路径，BC电池大规模推广及铜浆工艺量产导入或成行业破局关键。储 能设备领域，海外新市场、AIDC新场景需求高增，家电企业加速布局储能，具备客户和渠道优势。以 固态电池为代表的新技术加速突破，有望带动板块情绪及增量投资机会。 光伏50ETF跟踪的是光伏产业指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从沪深市场中选取涉及光伏产业 链上下游 ...

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. maintains a strong competitive position in the photovoltaic industry despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and significant price declines in products [3][4][5]. Company Overview - Longi Green Energy has established a vertically integrated industrial ecosystem from crystal pulling, slicing, battery cells to photovoltaic modules, ranking second globally in both monocrystalline silicon wafer and photovoltaic module shipments in 2024 [3][5][13]. - As of March 2025, the company has cash assets of 54.484 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.80%, indicating a solid financial position [5][15]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total profit loss of 10.206 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant cash outflow from operating activities amounting to 4.725 billion yuan [5][20]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company continued to experience losses, with a total profit loss of 1.709 billion yuan and a cash outflow of 1.747 billion yuan from operating activities [5][20]. Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is experiencing intensified competition and rapid technological iterations, leading to severe profit losses for the company [4][5][20]. - The prices of photovoltaic products have dropped to historical lows due to a significant supply-demand imbalance, impacting the company's revenue and profitability [4][5][20]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on developing BC battery technology and accelerating the upgrade of BC second-generation product capacity, while monitoring industry policies and technological advancements [4][5]. - The end of the domestic photovoltaic "rush installation" trend is expected to keep product prices low in the short term, further pressuring the operating performance of manufacturing enterprises [4][5]. Research and Development - Longi Green Energy has a strong R&D capability, holding over 3,342 authorized patents, including more than 400 patents for BC battery components [8][14]. - The company has been involved in setting over 300 solar photovoltaic standards, showcasing its leadership in technology and innovation within the industry [8][14]. Investment and Projects - As of March 2025, the company has ongoing projects with a total remaining investment of 12.466 billion yuan, focusing on upgrading existing production lines and new BC second-generation battery capacity [9][12]. - The company has faced risks related to investment returns and the effective release of capacity due to the current oversupply in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry [9][12].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250625：低位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/25 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | 8,100.00 | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 7,485.00 0.88% | | | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 615.00 -65.00 | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 33.50 0.00% | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 31,085.00 1.54% | | | | | 元/吨 2,415.00 -470.00 基差 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 8,100.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 8,150.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 7,950.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 8,200.00 0.00% ...

Core Viewpoint - Trina Solar Co., Ltd. maintains a stable credit rating of AA, with its convertible bond "Tian 23" also rated AA, reflecting the company's strong position in the photovoltaic industry despite facing challenges from price declines and increased competition [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Trina Solar's main business segments include photovoltaic products, photovoltaic systems, and smart energy solutions, with a focus on the photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industry [9]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had total assets of 1239.35 billion RMB and equity of 322.42 billion RMB, with a reported revenue of 802.82 billion RMB and a net loss of 36.60 billion RMB [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in profitability, with total profits for 2024 showing a loss of 36.60 billion RMB, compared to a profit of 65.28 billion RMB in 2023 [7][9]. - As of March 2025, the company reported total debt of 554.80 billion RMB, with an asset-liability ratio of 74.97%, indicating a rising debt burden [6][7]. Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a sharp decline in product prices and increased competition, which has adversely affected the company's financial performance [3][4][19]. - Despite the challenges, Trina Solar's photovoltaic module shipments ranked fourth globally, showcasing its competitive strength in the market [3][4]. Research and Development - The company has a strong R&D capability, with a reported investment of 5.558 billion RMB in 2024 and a total of 2857 patents, including 1117 invention patents [5][14]. - Trina Solar's N-type bifacial i-TOPCon (210) battery achieved a maximum conversion efficiency of 26.58%, demonstrating its technological advancements [5][14]. Market Position and Risks - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with significant contributions from overseas markets, including Europe and the United States, which accounted for 19.98% and 12.29% of revenue, respectively [6][14]. - However, the company faces risks related to overseas operations, including political and trade policy changes that could impact its business [6][20].

Group 1 - In April 2025, the newly installed capacity reached 45.22 GW, a year-on-year increase of 214.7%, marking the highest monthly addition of photovoltaic capacity in history for the first half of the year [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity connections, exploring innovative models for the integration of new energy production and consumption [1] - In April, the National Energy Administration issued 216 million green certificates, a month-on-month increase of 23.9% [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, prices in the main photovoltaic industry chain continued to decline, with main materials still at a loss, while auxiliary materials remained relatively stable [1] - The industry is experiencing ongoing impairment, showing slight improvement but still under pressure, with capital expenditure continuing to decline and corporate expansion slowing down [1] - Demand recovery is expected in the second quarter of 2025 due to domestic rush installations, leading to an increase in industry production, although future demand growth is anticipated to slow down [1]

Group 1: Project Investment and Construction Progress - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's construction in progress amounted to 663 million yuan, accounting for approximately 50% of net assets [1] - The company has initiated a significant project, the 4.5GW TOPCON solar cell project, with an estimated investment of 1.331 billion yuan, which is currently 62% complete [1] - Due to slower-than-expected project advancement, the company has recognized a construction in progress impairment provision of 72.2423 million yuan [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Future Projections - The company plans to invest in a total of 13.5GW of TOPCON solar cell production capacity, with the first phase targeting 4.5GW [5] - The company has completed investments for 3GW of the TOPCON solar cell production line, which is expected to undergo full debugging in 2024 [5] - The solar cell market has experienced significant price declines, leading the company to pause the remaining 1.5GW of investment and slow down project progress [5] Group 3: Supplier Transactions and Financial Integrity - The company has provided a list of the top ten suppliers for construction projects, ensuring that transactions are based on genuine commercial relationships without any financial flows to controlling shareholders or related parties [4] - The total transaction amount with these suppliers over the past two years is approximately 675.256 million yuan, with no evidence of funds being diverted to related parties [4] Group 4: Impairment Testing and Accounting Compliance - The company has conducted impairment testing for its construction in progress, following the relevant accounting standards, due to the significant downturn in the solar cell market [6] - The impairment assessment was based on future cash flow projections, with an estimated recoverable value determined through discounted cash flow analysis [6]

Group 1 - Sichuan Province plans to invest 135.3 billion yuan in a comprehensive photovoltaic industry chain, including 35 signed projects and 36 upstream and downstream companies [1] - The investment aims to establish a world-class crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry cluster in Yibin City, covering the entire photovoltaic production process from silicon materials to components [1] Group 2 - Argentina's first solar panel factory is set to open, with an initial capacity of 450 MW and plans to double to 1 GW in the near future [2] - The factory will initially use imported materials to produce solar panels, with future plans to manufacture batteries, silicon ingots, and silicon wafers [2] Group 3 - Pakistan's government plans to impose an 18% tax on imported solar panels and photovoltaic cells, expected to generate approximately 20 billion rupees (about 500 million yuan) in tax revenue [3] - The new tax aims to support local manufacturers and create a fair competitive environment, as previously imported solar panels were exempt from taxes [3] - Despite concerns from the solar industry about potential slowdowns in solar adoption, the government is committed to this tax policy as part of broader fiscal goals [3] Group 4 - ST King Kong signed a sales contract for 194 MW of HJT solar cells, which is expected to account for over 50% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [4] - The total value of contracts signed with this customer in the last 12 months exceeds 100% of the company's projected revenue for 2024, highlighting the company's technological strength and global operational capabilities [5]