Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for effective policy and economic stability, and external pressures, particularly from political figures, pose significant risks to this independence [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1]. - Patrick Harker emphasizes that any external pressure on the Federal Reserve is dangerous and could undermine its decision-making effectiveness, impacting both the U.S. economy and the global financial system [1][3]. - Harker notes that the Federal Reserve's structure allows it to maintain a degree of political independence, which is essential for making unpopular decisions, such as raising interest rates during high inflation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges, including persistent inflation around 3%, high housing costs, and stagnant labor markets [1][4]. - Harker warns that pursuing short-term economic stimulus through significant interest rate cuts could exacerbate structural issues rather than resolve them [2][5]. - The inflation rate remains stubbornly high, influenced by factors such as tariffs and rising housing and healthcare costs, which are expected to persist [4][7]. Group 3: Policy Outlook and Employment - Harker indicates that the labor market is showing signs of stagnation, with job growth concentrated in healthcare and government services, while manufacturing jobs are declining [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and housing costs will significantly influence inflation trends moving forward [9][10]. - Harker suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider one interest rate cut this year, but the decision will depend on the evolving economic landscape [11]. Group 4: Global Economic Perspective - Harker believes that the U.S. economy will perform reasonably well, supported by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, but overall growth remains modest [13]. - The potential for global growth is seen in Asia, although risks persist due to the changing nature of U.S. policies [14]. - Harker stresses the importance of trust and cooperation among nations to avoid stagnation in global affairs, highlighting that excessive distrust could hinder progress [16].

记者丨 施诗 李依农 《全球财经连线》： 我们看到司法部已发起刑事调查，针对美联储以及美联储主席鲍 威尔。你如何看待这件事？ 面对这种政治与政策交织的复杂局面， 美联储前票委、费城联邦储备银行前行长Patrick Harker在接受南方财经记者独家专访时指出，美联储的独立性是保障政策有效性和经济稳定 的关键。 他强调，任何针对美联储的外部施压都是危险的行为，可能削弱央行独立性、影响 其决策效果，甚至在全球经济层面产生连锁影响。在他看来，保持独立性不仅关乎美联储自身 的政策执行，也对美国经济及全球金融体系的稳定至关重要。 Harker还提醒，当前美国经济面临多重挑战： 通胀长期停留在3%左右，住房成本和医疗保健 支出仍居高不下，劳动市场整体呈现停滞。在这样的环境下，盲目追求短期刺激，尤其是通过 大幅降息，不仅无法解决结构性问题，反而可能埋下更大风险。 当前阶段并不合适大幅降息 《全球财经连线》： 特朗普呼吁大幅降息，如何看待这一主张？ Patrick Harker: 在当前阶段，这并不是一项合适的政策。这样做只会进一步刺激通胀，而我 们需要的是采取相反方向的措施，即推动通胀回落、加以抑制。 挑战美联储独立性是一 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，如果美国最高法院裁定反对 总统特朗普的全球关税政策，特朗普可立即实施10%的关税。 责任编辑：何云 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，如果美国最高法院裁定反对 总统特朗普的全球关税政策，特朗普可立即实施10%的关税。 责任编辑：何云 ...

工业金属价格的持续上涨正成为美国通胀前景的潜在威胁。随着油价近期反弹、关税成本传导以及经济增长保持韧性，多重因素叠加可能推动 CPI在未来数月出现上行压力，最高法院即将就关税问题作出的裁决也为短期通胀走势增添了不确定性。 据追风交易台消息，德银分析师Markus Heider在15日公布的报告中表示，金属市场正经历一轮强劲涨势。LMEX工业金属指数自去年12月以来已 上涨近20%，自9月以来累计涨幅达到30%。这一始于去年秋季的上涨行情在最近几周明显提速。 通胀风险正在累积。本周公布的11月生产者价格指数（PPI）报告已显示核心消费品通胀出现加速迹象。与此同时，此前一直作为重要抵消因素的 能源价格近期止跌回升，过去一周油价出现反弹，削弱了成本端的缓冲空间。 对于美国市场而言，这一风险尤为突出。近几个月来关税政策已为成本端增添压力。如果油价维持在当前水平且经济增长保持强劲，金属价格上 涨将更明显地构成美国CPI的上行风险。 金属价格与通胀市场估值之间存在显著的正相关关系，这种关联建立在两个基础之上。首先，基础金属是生产成本的重要驱动因素，价格上涨会 直接传导至制造业成本，进而影响终端消费价格。其次，金属价格与通 ...

与福特的强硬态度形成鲜明对比的，是来自萨斯喀彻温省的油菜籽种植户们。他们正在为自己的生计焦 头烂额，急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，纷纷呼吁政府赶紧向中国释放善意。受中方反制措施的直接冲击，该省 2025年8月对华油菜籽出口额暴跌了76%。"我们夹在两个大国之间，左右为难，眼看着春播的日子越来 越近，手里的菜籽却找不到销路，真是活不下去了。"当地农业协会负责人的话道尽了整个行业的焦虑 与无奈。 这场国内的"撕裂"，其实是上届政府留下的贸易烂摊子。回溯到2024年8月，加拿大跟随美国脚步，宣 布对中国电动汽车和钢铝产品加征高额关税，而这一举措未经过正当的贸易调查程序，引发了外界的广 泛质疑。中方迅速启动了针对性的贸易调查，并对加拿大油菜籽实施了临时保证金管控措施。这一反制 1月8日，加拿大安大略省省长道格·福特在一场新闻发布会上突然将炮口对准即将启程的总理卡尼的访 华行程。他态度强硬，毫不妥协地要求政府坚守对中国电动汽车的100%高额关税红线，甚至放出狠 话："不是本省生产的汽车，想进加拿大的门都没有。"这一番激烈的表态，让本来被加拿大媒体视 作"破冰续命"的关键访问，刚开始就陷入了公开对立，双方的矛盾一下子暴露无遗。 措 ...

金瑞期货分析称，宏观方面，特朗普称暂缓对关键矿产征税，金属市场有所回落。基本面上，智利 Mantoverde铜矿出现罢工，厄瓜多尔Mirador铜矿二期扩产延期，铜矿紧张矛盾仍存。进出口方面，未 来国内淡季，或仍保持对外出口。消费端，近期下游消费表现仍走弱，减停产情况增加。国内平衡保持 较多过剩。海外方面，CL价差收窄，需持续观察美国进口量，可能影响未来紧张预期。展望后市，暂 缓关税令市场有所降温，但对铜影响可能不大，CL价差未出现明显变化。因此，预期的紧张维持尚未 扭转和证伪看待，铜价总体的偏强震荡可能尚未结束。 广州期货指出，国内央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，并强调今年降准降息还有一 定空间，提振市场信心。产业面，铜市紧原料叙事逻辑持续，当前美国已琐死全球一半以上铜库存，非 美市场整体现货流通相对有限，警惕春节前后下游可能的补库行为或引发库存的去化，从而给价格带来 新的上涨驱动，近期LME库存再次转为下降，关注持续性，铜价维持易涨难跌态势。主力合约波动参 考10.1-10.5万。 1月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报103030.00元/吨，今日盘 ...

纺织厂女工马索尼安尼：因为美方高额关税，我们厂已经没有订单了。这些关税的上涨在经济和社会 层面，都对我们造成了非常严重的冲击。我们非常担心，也非常沮丧，因为我们不知道，自己是在前 进，还是在倒退。 莱索托贸易和工商业发展大臣莫凯蒂·谢利莱表示，尽管美方后来将税率从最初宣布的50%下调至 15%，但由于《非洲增长与机会法案》到期，再叠加化纤等附加税，部分纺织品综合税率仍超过40%， 莱索托企业几乎失去了在美国市场的价格竞争力。 莱索托贸易和工商业发展大臣莫凯蒂·谢利莱：有些工厂已经开始实行他们所说的"短工"模式，比如 1000个人工作两周，另外1000个人再工作两周，这就意味着他们的工资被削减了，所以你可以想象， 现在有人只能靠一半的收入生活。我们非常脆弱，因为我们的出口产品非常单一，主要就是纺织品， 纺织业一旦出问题，我们整个国家就会出问题。 美国实施关税政策导致非洲南部国家莱索托的支柱产业纺织业遭遇巨大冲击，就业、民生与社会稳定 面临严峻考验。近日，总台记者在莱索托首都马塞卢走访工业园区和多家制衣企业，实地了解美方关 税政策对当地经济的影响。 园区内的纺织企业负责人告诉记者，2025年之前，企业每月可生产成 ...

Group 1 - As of December 2025, Donald Trump's investments in municipal and corporate bonds include bonds from companies related to his government policies, totaling at least $51 million [1] - The bonds purchased include those from Netflix (NFLX.US), CoreWeave (CRWV.US), General Motors (GM.US), Boeing (BA.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US), and United Rentals (URI.US), along with municipal bonds from various U.S. cities, school districts, utilities, and hospitals [1] - Trump completed 189 buy transactions and 2 sell transactions between November 14 and December 29, with the total value of sell transactions reaching at least $1.3 million [1] Group 2 - Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has completed 690 transactions totaling at least $104 million, with further transactions in November and December amounting to $106 million, including three additional sell transactions worth $2 million [2] - A senior White House official stated that Trump and his family did not participate in investment decisions, and an independent financial manager used a recognized index replication investment strategy for bond purchases [2] Group 3 - Unlike previous presidents, Trump has not divested personal assets or placed them in a blind trust, with his business empire managed by his two sons, leading to potential conflicts of interest with presidential policies [3] - During foreign visits, Trump actively promoted Boeing aircraft and highlighted the company's successful sales to international airlines [3] - Trump emphasized General Motors' strategy to move production of popular models back to the U.S., claiming it demonstrates the effectiveness of his tariff policies in revitalizing American manufacturing [3]

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...

Group 1 - As of December 2025, Donald Trump's investments in municipal and corporate bonds include bonds from companies related to his government policies, totaling at least $51 million [1] - The bonds purchased include those from Netflix (NFLX.US), CoreWeave (CRWV.US), General Motors (GM.US), Boeing (BA.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US), and United Rentals (URI.US), along with municipal bonds from various U.S. cities and utilities [1] - Trump's trading record shows 189 buy transactions and 2 sell transactions between November 14 and December 29, with the total value of sell transactions reaching at least $1.3 million [1] Group 2 - Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has completed 690 transactions totaling at least $104 million, with additional transactions in November and December amounting to $106 million [2] - A senior White House official stated that Trump and his family did not participate in investment decisions, and an independent financial manager executed the bond purchases [2] - Unlike previous presidents, Trump has not divested personal assets or placed them in a blind trust, leading to potential conflicts of interest due to overlaps between his business empire and presidential policies [3] Group 3 - During foreign visits, Trump actively promoted Boeing aircraft, highlighting successful sales to international airlines [3] - Trump emphasized General Motors' decision to move production of popular models back to the U.S. as evidence of the effectiveness of his tariff policies in revitalizing American manufacturing [3] - Netflix is currently in a competitive struggle with Paramount Global (PSKY.US) for Warner Bros. (WBD.US), which poses significant antitrust challenges for Trump's administration [3]