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转债周度专题:转债新高怎么看?-20250721
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-21 00:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Convertible Bond Index reached a new high this week, with a cumulative increase of 9.48% since the beginning of the year. The valuation of convertible bonds has entered a high - level range and is shifting from following the underlying stock to an active upward - adjustment phase. It is recommended to focus on convertible bonds with low option valuations and those with elastic advantages in structure, such as those with a par value between 80 - 100 yuan [1][10]. - During the interim report period, attention should be paid to industries with improving performance expectations. It is advisable to focus on convertible bonds of industries with stable demand and high performance certainty, as well as those with performance recovery expectations under the "anti - involution" trend, while avoiding some high - price and high - premium targets that deviate from fundamentals [2][19]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the shrinking supply of convertible bonds. With the low long - term yield of pure bonds, the opportunity cost of convertible bonds is relatively low. However, the current overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high level, so be vigilant against callback risks. In terms of clauses, continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions, beware of forced redemption risks, and appropriately pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. How to View the New High of Convertible Bonds - As of Friday, the Convertible Bond Index continued to rise, reaching a new high in recent years. The valuation of convertible bonds has entered a high - level range, and the valuation is gradually shifting from following the underlying stock to an active upward - adjustment phase. Analogy to early 2022 suggests a potential overheating risk after the active upward adjustment of convertible bond valuations. It is recommended to focus on individual convertible bonds with relatively low option valuations [1][10]. - In terms of convertible bond elasticity, focus on convertible bonds with elastic advantages in structure, such as those with a par value between 80 - 100 yuan. During the short - term valuation upward period, the elastic asymmetry advantage of convertible bonds is more significant in medium - and low - par value convertible bonds, especially those in the 70 - 100 yuan par value group, which have better offensive - defensive properties [12]. - During the interim report period, 123 convertible bond issuers have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025. Industries such as electronics and non - ferrous metals have relatively more issuers with pre - increased or slightly increased performance. It is recommended to focus on convertible bonds of industries with stable demand and high performance certainty, as well as those with performance recovery expectations under the "anti - involution" trend, and avoid some high - price and high - premium targets that deviate from fundamentals [2][19]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - The market showed mixed daily gains and losses this week but rose overall. The A - share market had different trends each day, with changes in trading volume and sector performance. For example, on Monday, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1480.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.7 billion yuan from the previous day, and the humanoid robot and reducer concepts led the gains [22]. - It is believed that the current A - shares still present good allocation value. The rebound in export orders has led to a narrow improvement in the PMI in June, and measures such as large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins are expected to boost domestic demand. At the convertible bond level, there is support on the demand side under the shrinking supply, but be vigilant against callback risks. In terms of industries, focus on popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, and high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system [23]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.40%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.17%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value [27]. - Among the Shenwan industry indices, 19 industries rose and 12 fell. The communication, pharmaceutical biology, and automobile industries led the gains, with increases of 7.56%, 4.00%, and 3.28% respectively, while the media, real estate, and public utilities industries were among the top losers [30]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Hundred - Yuan Premium Rate Rose - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.67%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.92%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased, with an average daily trading volume of 70.669 billion yuan, an increase of 2.554 billion yuan from last week, and a total weekly trading volume of 353.346 billion yuan [3][32]. - At the industry level, 22 convertible bond industries rose and 7 fell. The household appliances, media, and computer industries were the top three gainers, with increases of 3.21%, 2.49%, and 2.20% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 18 industries rose and 11 fell, with the household appliances, computer, and pharmaceutical biology industries leading the gains [38]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose (341 out of 466). After excluding the closing data of newly - listed convertible bonds this week, the top five weekly gainers were Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 36.83%), Bohui Convertible Bond (petroleum and petrochemical, 33.80%), Julong Convertible Bond (basic chemicals, 24.43%), Yitian Convertible Bond (household appliances, 24.41%), and Hongfeng Convertible Bond (power equipment, 23.14%). The top five weekly losers were Seli Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, - 9.74%), Guangda Convertible Bond (power equipment, - 8.86%), Huachen Convertible Bond (power equipment, - 8.71%), Punai Convertible Bond (building materials, - 8.32%), and Liande Convertible Bond (electronics, - 7.44%). The top five in terms of weekly trading volume were Seli Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 22.08 billion yuan), Bohui Convertible Bond (petroleum and petrochemical, 14.263 billion yuan), Outong Convertible Bond (power equipment, 11.195 billion yuan), Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 11.061 billion yuan), and Huicheng Convertible Bond (environmental protection, 10.133 billion yuan) [40]. - The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted average conversion value at the end of this week was 95.31 yuan, an increase of 0.45 yuan from the end of last week. The weighted conversion premium rate of the entire market was 44.37%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from last week. The hundred - yuan par value premium rate was 23.38%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points from last week. The median implied volatility of the entire market's convertible bonds was 32.71%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points from last week, and the pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 8.28%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points from last week [47]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of convertible bonds with a par value below 80 yuan increased significantly, while those with a par value between 80 - 90 yuan decreased, and the valuations of other par - value convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA, AA +, and AA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuation of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other size - segmented convertible bonds decreased [53]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was around the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile since 2017 [53]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds fell by 0.06%, while other rated convertible bonds rose. Since 2023, AAA - rated convertible bonds have recorded an 18.83% return, AA + - rated convertible bonds 6.65%, AA - rated convertible bonds 10.00%, AA - - rated convertible bonds 18.17%, A + - rated convertible bonds 20.64%, and A and below - rated convertible bonds 26.82%. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [69][71]. - This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Small - cap convertible bonds rose 2.23%, small - and medium - cap convertible bonds 0.67%, medium - cap convertible bonds 0.74%, and large - cap convertible bonds 0.22%. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 21.20% return, small - and medium - cap convertible bonds 18.87%, medium - cap convertible bonds 15.00%, and large - cap convertible bonds 14.77% [71]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - Two new convertible bonds were listed this week (Yongxi Convertible Bond and Xizhen Convertible Bond), and three have been issued but not yet listed (Libo Convertible Bond, Bo 25 Convertible Bond, and Guanghe Convertible Bond). There were six primary approvals this week (from July 14 to July 18, 2025). Jindawen (1.801 billion yuan) and Weidao Nano (1.17 billion yuan) were approved by the CSRC [75]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to July 18, 2025, there have been a total of 86 planned convertible bonds, with a total scale of 138.41 billion yuan. Among them, 11 convertible bonds have passed the board of directors' resolution, with a total scale of 15.878 billion yuan; 40 have passed the general meeting of shareholders, with a total scale of 67.022 billion yuan; 29 have been accepted by the exchange, with a total scale of 48.781 billion yuan; 2 have passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 1.45 billion yuan; and 4 have been approved by the CSRC, with a total scale of 5.28 billion yuan [76]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - This week, 12 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision, 4 announced that they would not make a downward revision, 1 proposed a downward revision, and 1 announced the result of a downward revision [79]. - This week, 8 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced that they would not redeem in advance, and 5 announced early redemption [81][82]. - As of the end of this week, there were 5 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 23 in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period. It is recommended to continuously monitor the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's tendency for downward revisions [84].
重磅!模组龙头拟融资23亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:35
Core Viewpoint - The company, Quectel, has officially received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a private placement plan to raise 2.3 billion yuan, aimed at expanding its production capacity in automotive and 5G modules, as well as developing AI solutions and upgrading its headquarters and R&D center [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Projects - The total investment for the automotive and 5G module expansion project is 957.27 million yuan, with the same amount allocated from the raised funds [3]. - The AI computing module and AI solution industrialization project has a planned investment of 411.24 million yuan, fully funded by the raised capital [3]. - The headquarters and R&D center upgrade project has a total investment of 728.44 million yuan, with 531.50 million yuan sourced from the raised funds [3]. - The working capital supplement project is allocated 400 million yuan, fully funded by the raised capital [3]. Group 2: Business Growth and Market Position - The automotive and industrial IoT sectors are the core sources of revenue growth for the company, contributing over half of its income [4]. - The company has developed a "seven major automotive product technology ecosystem," covering various modules and has partnerships with over 30 leading automotive brands [4]. - The company is projected to ship over 20 million units of its 5G RedCap module by 2025, holding a 31% market share in global 5G module shipments in 2024 [4]. - The AI computing module and solutions are expected to see a 45% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with applications in industrial quality inspection and robotics [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global cellular IoT module market is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand from India, China, and Latin America [8]. - The company maintains its position as the global leader in cellular IoT modules, with a market share that, along with its closest competitors, accounts for over half of global shipments [8][11]. - The company anticipates benefiting from China's "5G Application Sailing Action Plan," with expectations to capture over 50% of new demand by 2025 [11]. - Emerging businesses such as satellite communication modules and edge AI modules are projected to account for over 30% of revenue by 2025, optimizing the company's product structure [12].
NB-IoT和LoRa的角逐再次打响,这次的"战场"是在天上
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-19 11:48
十年前,低功耗广域物联网(LPWAN)进入业界视野,这一赛道开启了群雄逐鹿的过程,虽然各类技术层出不穷, 但最终3GPP阵营和LoRa阵营占据了主导,基本覆盖了大部分低功耗广域连接场景,前者代表性技术包括NB-IoT和 LTE-M,后者借助LoRa联盟推出的LoRaWAN规范和众多厂商私有化LoRa协议为用户提供服务。 如今,以卫星通信为代表的非地面网络(NTN)成为物联网的一个热点领域,通过卫星物联网,为此前服务不足的地 区提供无处不在的连接解决方案。而在卫星物联网发展过程中,3GPP阵营和LoRa阵营又一次相遇,借助各自的技术 体系不断推进商用。目前,卫星物联网还处于起步阶段,这一次基本没有其他LPWAN阵营的加入,主要是NB-IoT和 LoRaWAN在天上的角逐。 LoRa阵营拓展卫星物联网由来已久 早在2018年,LoRa阵营的支持者就在探索LoRa用于卫星物联网下应用的可能性,在一次验证中,LoRa接收机捕捉到 了从低轨卫星传来的信号。彼时,LoRa技术得到全球广泛支持,已经在数十项LPWAN技术竞争中表现突出。卫星物 联网的成功验证,提升了LoRa阵营进一步扩大影响力的信心。 2022年2月,Lo ...
移为通信(300590) - 300590移为通信投资者关系管理信息20250516
2025-05-16 02:20
Group 1: Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company is focused on optimizing its supply chain and sourcing alternatives to reduce reliance on imports and enhance cost efficiency [2] - It aims to achieve core component localization through its chip-level development capabilities, which allows for hardware design and development based on baseband and positioning chips [2] - The company plans to increase R&D investment to enhance product value and core competitiveness [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company is actively investing in cutting-edge communication technologies, with dual-network integration products for vehicle applications currently in certification and testing [3] - Products based on high-orbit satellite communication for the livestock industry have been developed and are being promoted in key markets like Australia [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and International Presence - The company has a high proportion of overseas revenue and is closely monitoring geopolitical factors and exchange rate fluctuations to adjust its market strategies [3] - It has expanded its product coverage to over 140 countries and regions, diversifying its sales areas and customer structure to mitigate international risks [3] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling approximately 100,571,984.04 yuan, which represents over 63% of its net profit [4] - It has consistently implemented cash dividends for eight consecutive years and values shareholder feedback on its dividend plans [4] Group 5: Performance Outlook - The company maintains a stable growth trajectory, with future performance expected to continue growing, although it acknowledges potential impacts from macroeconomic conditions and industry changes [5] - The stock price is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and national policies, leading to inherent uncertainties [5] Group 6: Internal Control Measures - The company is revising its governance structure in line with the latest laws and regulations, enhancing internal control management training for its executives and departments [5] - The internal audit department will continue to monitor the execution of internal controls and strengthen oversight with the assistance of external audit firms [5]
可转债周报20250427:转债主体2025Q1业绩前瞻-20250427
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-27 11:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market valuation has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level in the long term, with a good risk premium ratio for allocation. The domestic economic fundamentals still have room for recovery, and the export growth rate may decline due to the base effect. Attention should be paid to the implementation of fiscal policies and market gaming under incremental policies. [18] - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking convertible bond supply. The current valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and it is expected that the subsequent valuation center of convertible bonds will fluctuate moderately within a range. [18] - In terms of industries, attention should be paid to popular themes, the domestic demand direction, and high-dividend sectors under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, as well as the military industry. [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 2025Q1 Performance Outlook of Convertible Bond Entities - As of April 25, 2025, 217 out of 474 convertible bonds (45.8%) have disclosed their Q1 reports, and 9 have disclosed performance forecasts. Most convertible bond entities' revenues in 2025Q1 increased compared to the same period last year. [1][9] - In terms of industries, convertible bond entities in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non-ferrous metals industries had relatively high year-on-year growth rates in Q1 revenues and net profits attributable to the parent. Entities in the light manufacturing, national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and automobile industries had significant year-on-year profit declines. Loss-making entities were mainly concentrated in the computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical and biological industries. [1][10] - Among the 217 convertible bond entities, 93 achieved year-on-year growth in both revenues and net profits attributable to the parent, and attention should be paid to their convertible bond conversion tendencies. 58 entities had year-on-year declines in both revenues and net profits, and attention should be paid to their subsequent convertible bond ratings and performance recovery. [2][10] 3.2 1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A-share market rose collectively. As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.74%. [17][18] - The current A-share market valuation has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level in the long term. The domestic economic fundamentals still have room for recovery, and the export growth rate may decline due to the base effect. [18] - On the convertible bond level, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking convertible bond supply. The current valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and it is expected that the subsequent valuation center of convertible bonds will fluctuate moderately within a range. [18] 3.3 2.1 Equity Market Rise - This week, the equity market rose. The Wind All A Index rose 1.15%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.74%. The market style was more inclined to small-cap value. [22] - Most industries rose this week. The automobile, beauty care, and basic chemical industries led the market, while the food and beverage, real estate, and coal industries were among the top decliners. [24] 3.4 2.2 Convertible Bond Market Rise, Decline in Overall Market Premium Rate - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.85%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.95%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased. [3][28] - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 28 industries rose and 1 fell. The media, automobile, and computer industries led the market in terms of gains. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 22 industries rose and 7 fell. [31] - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week. The top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Fuxin Convertible Bond, Zhenhua Convertible Bond, Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2, Limin Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond; the top five in terms of weekly losses were Huicheng Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, Huafeng Convertible Bond, Daoen Convertible Bond, and Liugong Convertible Bond 2. [32][34] - The number of absolute low-price convertible bonds decreased this week. The median price of convertible bonds in the entire market rose. The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate decreased. [36][41] 3.5 2.3 High-Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.5.1 Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all parities rose. Historically, high-parity convertible bonds are more elastic. [45] - This week, equity-biased, balanced, and debt-biased convertible bonds all rose. Historically, equity-biased convertible bonds are more elastic, and balanced convertible bonds are more resistant to declines. [46][47] - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Historically, high-rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while AA- rated convertible bonds have performed poorly, and low-rated convertible bonds have shown weaker resistance to declines and greater rebound strength. [49] - This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Since 2023, small-cap convertible bonds have recorded a 9.91% return, small and medium-cap convertible bonds 11.27%, medium-cap convertible bonds 8.02%, and large-cap convertible bonds 7.43%. [51] 3.5.2 Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of all types of convertible bonds rose. The valuations of balanced and equity-biased convertible bonds increased; the valuations of convertible bonds of all parities increased, with a significant increase in the valuation of (80, 90] parity convertible bonds; the valuation of AAA-rated convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of other rated convertible bonds decreased; the valuation of large-cap convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of other classified convertible bonds decreased. [53] - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds have bottomed out and rebounded. The conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds are currently below the 35% and around the 50% quantiles since 2017, respectively. [55] - The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of all ratings have fluctuated slightly. Currently, the premium rates of high-rated convertible bonds are relatively low. [56] 3.6 3.1 This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - This week, 3 new convertible bonds were listed, 0 were pending issuance, and 1 was pending listing. There were 8 primary approvals this week. [62] - Since the beginning of 2023 to April 25, 2025, there have been a total of 90 planned convertible bonds, with a total scale of 148.527 billion yuan. [66] 3.7 3.2 Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - As of April 25, 2025, 21 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 31 announced no downward revisions, 4 proposed downward revisions, and 3 actually had downward revisions. [5][69] - This week, 0 convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemptions, 1 announced no early redemption, and 2 announced early redemptions. [5][72][73] - As of the end of this week, there was 1 convertible bond still in the put option declaration period and 30 still in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period. Attention should be paid to the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's downward revision tendency. [5][75]