经济学家Taro Kimura指出："如果日本央行迟迟不加息，市场可能会开始质疑其独立性。在政治与央行 职能的微妙平衡中，日本央行继续维持紧缩政策的可能性仍然存在。" 分析人士指出，如果日本领导人似乎推迟加息并导致日元贬值，这对美国来说可不是什么好事。美国总 统特朗普曾表示，日本正试图通过低汇率来获取优势。美国财政部长贝森特在 8 月份曾表示，日本央行 在应对通胀方面行动迟缓，这是他上任以来罕见的言论。 Nissay Asset Management高级投资经理Eiichiro Miura表示："市场正在考验自民党总裁高市早苗、财务 省以及日本央行的立场。在达到 160 之前，高市早苗很可能会被日本央行说服。而且，来自美国方面的 加息压力也可能存在。" 高市早苗所在的自民党在最近的全国选举中失去了对议会两院的控制权，民众对生活成本的不满被认为 是主要原因之一。日本的关键通胀指标已连续三年保持在或高于日本央行设定的 2%的目标水平，导致 实际工资持续下降。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相候选人高市早苗赢得自民党总裁选举，有可能会促使日本央行在本月提高 利率。由于高市早苗主张推行宽松货币政策，在她当选自民党总裁后， ...

Group 1 - The potential new Prime Minister of Japan, Sanna Takashi, may inadvertently prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as this month due to her perceived disinterest in the central bank's actions, which has contributed to the depreciation of the yen [1][2] - The weakening yen is increasing import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures, and complicating Takashi's plans to alleviate the impact of rising living costs [1] - If the yen continues to decline towards 160, and the Bank of Japan maintains interest rates, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may need to intervene in the market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, indicated that the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October has increased under Takashi's leadership due to public dissatisfaction with the inflation caused by yen depreciation [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations of continued monetary easing by the new government and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 152.50, with a weekly increase exceeding 3%, marking the largest rise since September 2024 [1] - Market participants are questioning the likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates in October or December, given the ongoing weakness in Japan's economy [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts, with inflation risks still a concern [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The probability of a BOJ rate hike in late October has dropped to 27%, while December's likelihood stands at 44%, subject to changes with the new government [2] - BOJ officials express a mix of optimism and caution regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning wage-related uncertainties [2] - Former BOJ officials suggest that the rationale for a rate hike this year is weak, advocating for a careful approach to policy normalization [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Interventions - If the BOJ does not raise rates in October, the risk of foreign exchange intervention may increase, although decisive action is unlikely from the current government [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 日本央行前副行长若田部昌澄称，日本央行尚未承诺加息的具体时间，也未释放任何信号。由于第三季 度GDP前景疲软，日本央行今年可能难以证明加息的合理性。 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected election of high-ranking official Takemi Saimai as the new leader of the ruling party has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen, with the exchange rate approaching the critical psychological level of 155 yen per dollar [1] - The yen's decline has prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance to closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, indicating potential intervention if the depreciation continues [1][2] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have diminished due to Saimai's victory, with analysts suggesting that any rate increase may be postponed until December [1][3] Group 2 - The yen is nearing the intervention levels previously established by the Bank of Japan in 2024, with specific points of intervention identified around 157.99 to 161.76 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from SBI FXTRADE have stated that there is currently no incentive to buy yen unless strong warnings are issued by the Ministry of Finance or signals of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan are provided [2] - Following the election results, Bank of America has revised its year-end forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate from 153 to 155, while Deutsche Bank has downgraded its yen rating from "bullish" to "neutral" [3] Group 3 - The appointment of former finance ministers Shunichi Suzuki and Taro Aso to senior positions within the ruling party has provided some reassurance to market participants regarding fiscal policy stability [3] - The market's expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped significantly, from over 60% to approximately 25%, indicating a shift in sentiment following the election [3] - The future trajectory of the yen's value is heavily dependent on guidance from the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding short-term interest rate policies [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a presidential election on October 4, with five candidates competing for the position [1] - The candidates include current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi [1][7] - Voting will begin at 1 PM local time, with the first round results expected around 2:10 PM, and if no candidate receives a majority, a final voting round will take place, with results anticipated by 3:20 PM [1] Group 2 - Candidate Shinjiro Koizumi advocates for reducing consumption tax, increasing defense budget, strengthening economic security, and tightening foreign relations policies, with a conservative political stance [8] - Candidate Yoshihide Suga focuses on addressing the impact of rising living costs on the economy, supports interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and emphasizes local revitalization, with a relatively moderate political stance [12] - Candidate Toshimitsu Motegi aims to lead Japan towards revitalization within two years, achieve wage growth exceeding inflation rates, and propose multi-trillion yen subsidies, also holding a relatively moderate political stance [13]

彭博Markets Live策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（MarkCranfield）表示 ， 目前日元的看涨预期正迅速升温，因 日本央行即将开启加息、美联储计划再次降息，而自民党领袖选举还将为日本经济带来更多刺激政策。 全球资产管理公司Orbis Investment Management Ltd.则在观望：若高市早苗胜选，市场可能出现混乱， 而该公司将把这种混乱视为增持其所持资产（如内需导向型股票）的机会。 本周六，日本执政党将投票决定下任领袖人选，候选人为改革派的小泉进次郎（Shinjiro Koizumi）与右 翼倾向的高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi），当前民调结果呈现胶着状态。在此背景下，各类交易策略纷纷 浮出水面。鉴于两位候选人的政策主张存在差异，此次选举结果可能对这个亚洲第二大经济体产生长期 影响。 以对冲基金Epic Partners Investments Co.为例，该公司已做好准备：一旦尘埃落定，若股市出现任何可 能的上涨，便会趁机抛售。 "我的目标是在胜者确定后，利用市场暂时的定价偏差获利，"这家位于东京的杠杆基金首席执行官竹秀 松（Hidematsu Take）表示，"如果高市早苗 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行行长植田和男周五表示，央行将密切关注美国关税及海外经济持续不确定 性是否可能抑制企业加薪意愿。他重申，若经济和物价走势符合预期，央行将继续提高目前仍处于低位 的利率。 但他同时指出，日本经济前景面临诸多不确定性，包括美国劳动力市场疲软迹象增多，以及美国加征关 税对日本企业利润的潜在影响。 植田和男在大阪对商界领袖发表演讲时称："若海外经济与贸易政策的不确定性持续高企，企业可能更 注重成本削减，并削弱将物价上涨转嫁至工资的努力。" 年度大阪会议历来是日本央行行长发表年度重要演讲的场合。本次演讲在央行发布最新短观调查数日后 举行，系2013年以来首次在季度调查后安排重要演讲，此时机加剧市场对央行可能借重要数据铺垫加息 的猜测。 央行副行长内田真一周三称短调显示企业信心仍处良好水平，暗示经济符合央行展望——这是加息的重 要前提。 日本通胀率持续超过央行2%目标已逾三年，植田和男以基本通胀趋势仍未达标为由采取渐进加息策 略。 近期市场对加息预期升温，但植田和男未预告任何政策变化。上月政策会议已有两名委员对维持现状投 出反对票，本周更有一位鸽派委员在演讲中强调政策调整必要性。 植田和男转而采 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is anticipating a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October, leading to weak demand for the latest issuance of Japanese two-year government bonds, which saw the lowest demand since 2009 [1][3] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the two-year bonds dropped from 3.24 times before the auction to 2.81 times, significantly below the 12-month average of 3.79 times, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The yield on the two-year bonds rose by 1 basis point to 0.935%, marking the highest level since 2008, while the 10-year bond futures also turned from gains to losses [1][3] Group 2 - Two members of the BOJ's policy committee opposed the decision to maintain interest rates at the last meeting, intensifying speculation about an imminent rate hike [3] - Asahi Noguchi, a typically dovish BOJ member, indicated that the necessity to adjust policy rates is increasing, which the market interpreted as a sign that the BOJ is moving closer to a rate hike [3] - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance of 1-5 year bonds in November, while also reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds in upcoming liquidity enhancement tenders [3] Group 3 - The recent two-year bond auction has shown weak performance for the second consecutive time, suggesting that traders expect the BOJ to raise rates in October and are demanding higher yields as compensation for risk [4] - Potential candidates for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership are taking stances that may influence the BOJ's policy decisions, with one candidate emphasizing the need for the central bank to independently determine monetary policy details [4] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from the BOJ's governor and deputy governor, as well as the short-term economic outlook survey, for new clues regarding the monetary policy path [5]

Core Points - The US dollar is experiencing a decline as the week begins, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on September 29, continuing its previous trend [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown looms, with both parties maintaining their positions, while important economic data, particularly the monthly employment report, is set to be released this week [1] - The Japanese yen is appreciating against the dollar, with upcoming economic data and central bank officials' speeches expected to influence market expectations regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index reached its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] - Traders are closely monitoring whether the developments in the US and Japan will affect expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to a decrease in expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Chairman Powell indicated challenges ahead due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook [1]