植田和男讲话后，美元对日元走低至155.60，上周曾一度升至156.18高位，已超过通常的"干预"预警水 平155。日本东证指数涨幅扩大至1%。10年期日本国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%，续创2008年6月以 来最高。30年期国债日本收益率也上升5个基点至3.385%。两年期日本国债收益率也自2008年来首次触 及1.00%大关。 随着日元疲软加剧，以及高市早苗政府对弱日元的容忍度下降，市场上周开始对日本央行加息预期大幅 回升。 今日（1日），日本央行行长植田和男上午发表讲话后，其内容将市场对12月政策转向的猜测推向了高 潮。 但他也提示，投资日本眼下确实也存在一些风险，比如30年期日债持续呈现上升趋势。 植田和男助燃加息预期 在今日的讲话中，植田和男强调，日本央行"将在12月会议上就利率问题做出正确决定"，"如果经济展 望实现，将加息"，"我们将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。"这被市场解读为结束超 宽松货币政策的强烈暗示。 "为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过晚，也不能过早；越来越多观点认 为，关税政策对企业利润的影响将是有限的；日本经济前景的不确定性似乎正在逐步减弱 ...

日本央行行长植田和男发出了迄今为止最明确的信号，暗示其政策委员会可能会在本月提高基准利率， 他指出任何加息都仅仅是对宽松程度的调整，当局将对是否采取行动做出正确的决定。植田和男周一表 示，日本央行将通过审视国内外的经济、通胀和金融市场情况，考虑提高政策利率的利弊，并做出适当 的决定。根据隔夜掉期指数，交易员认为日本央行在12月19日结束下次政策会议时有约64%的加息可 能；到明年1月底前采取行动的可能性则上升至90%。植田发表此番言论后，日元兑美元小幅走高。在 他讲话之前，市场对日本央行加息的猜测日益升温，两年期国债收益率已升至2008年以来的最高水平。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar due to ongoing expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with the dollar-yen exchange rate reported at 155.78 yen, down from 156.18 yen in North American markets [1] Group 1 - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has reached 1.000% for the first time in 17 years, driven by easing concerns over US tariffs and persistently high inflation [1] - The recent downward target for the dollar-yen exchange rate is the low of 155.65 yen established last week [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, looking for clues regarding potential policy actions in the upcoming committee meeting later this month [1]

Market Overview - On December 1, spot silver reached a historic high of $57 per ounce, while spot gold fluctuated above the 4220 mark during Asian trading hours [4] - On November 28, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.61% to 47,716.42 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% to 6,849.09 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% to 23,365.69 points [4] - European stock indices also saw gains on November 28, with the FTSE 100 up 0.27% to 9,720.51 points, CAC40 up 0.29% to 8,122.71 points, and DAX up 0.29% to 23,836.79 points [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for September is expected to show a slight increase in the overall PCE year-on-year growth to 2.8%, while the core PCE price index is anticipated to remain at 2.9% [6] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is expected to give a speech that may hint at potential interest rate hikes in December, as the central bank is reportedly preparing for the possibility of raising rates [6] Corporate News - Airbus announced that approximately 6,000 A320 series aircraft need to be urgently grounded due to a software issue that makes them susceptible to strong solar radiation, leading to potential flight cancellations or delays for several airlines including Air France, easyJet, American Airlines, JetBlue, and Air New Zealand [7]

Group 1 - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above economists' expectations of 2.7% [1][3] - The core inflation indicator, excluding fresh food and energy, also increased by 2.8%, with service prices rising by 1.5% year-on-year [3] - The increase in industrial output by 1.4% month-on-month in October, surpassing the consensus expectation of a 0.6% decline, indicates a recovery in manufacturing [5] Group 2 - The Japanese government announced an economic stimulus plan totaling 7.7 trillion yen (approximately 113 billion USD) to address rising living costs, which includes expanding utility subsidies and cutting gasoline taxes [7] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, is urging the government to take more measures against inflation, as real wages have been declining for the past nine months [6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider interest rate hikes as early as December or January, with most observers anticipating a rate increase by January at the latest [7]

据报道，日本央行前理事门间一夫表示，日元近期走软提升了日本央行下月加息的可能性。 ...

Core Insights - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen has increased the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month [1] Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan board member, Kazuo Momma, indicated that the weakening yen is a significant factor influencing the central bank's monetary policy decisions [1]

来源：金融界AI电报 景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀庭表示，日元自高市当选以来走弱，反映出市场预期她在货币紧缩上采 取谨慎立场，以及对大规模刺激方案引发财政恶化的忧虑。政府对日元走弱感到担心，若美元兑日元接 近160，可能进行外汇干预。不过，一旦刺激方案的规模与细节明朗化，日元跌势预计将趋于稳定。赵 耀庭认为，日元走弱加上大规模经济刺激预期，为日本央行加息提供了助力。由于工资增长强劲及家庭 信心改善，国内需求保持韧性。在刺激措施及通胀回落的带动下，第四季经济增长预计将重返正区间。 日本央行在12月18至19日会议上加息的可能性增加。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管面临美国关税带来的利润压力，但日本2026年度薪资谈判的早期迹象显示，薪 资将再次实现稳健增长，这为日本央行进一步加息提供了依据。 日本央行行长植田和男此前表示，需要"更多数据"来评估明年薪资谈判的初步势头——尤其是受美国关 税影响的企业是否会持续加薪，这一表态让薪资前景再度成为市场焦点。 日本工会已明确表示，将再次要求大幅加薪。持续的薪资增长将支撑私人消费，赋予日本央行在不破坏 经济复苏的前提下加息的信心。尽管近年来薪资实现大幅上涨，但由于核心消费通胀持续高于央行2% 的目标，实际薪资增长仍处于负值区间。 拥有700万会员的日本最大工会联合组织Rengo计划在2026年劳资谈判中争取5%及以上的薪资涨幅。这 与该组织在2025年的要求相同，并最终在今年达成了34年来最大的加薪幅度。 作为受美国关税冲击最严重的行业之一，日本汽车行业最大工会负责人本月表示，尽管企业利润受到挤 压，但在明年的劳资谈判中并无下调加薪诉求的计划。 日本的年度薪资谈判通常于年末由工会起草要求，次年年初展开正式谈判，并于3月公布最终结果。 诚然，企业未必会完全响应2026年的工会加薪要求。未来几个月，美国对日本商 ...

日本首相高市早苗经济成长战略顾问小组成员片冈刚士表示，日本央行在明年3月之前不太可能加息， 因为当局需要确认大规模额外财政支出正在有效提振国内需求。片冈刚士曾担任日本央行委员会成员， 当时坚定支持财政与货币宽松政策。 他表示，若本周晚些时候即将公布的经济刺激方案能有效实施，国内需求最早可能在明年第一季度开始 扩张，"视情况而定，3月就可能具备加息条件。" （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管多数经济学家预计日本央行将在1月加息，尤其考虑到日元近期走弱，但片冈的观点暗示，加息时 间可能进一步推迟。与此同时，他的表态也表明，各方普遍认同日本央行应坚持逐步迈向加息路径的总 体方向。 ...