商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支 | | | | | 撑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 119,540 | 1,560 | 1,100 | 20,800 | 24,900 | 45,500 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 9,368 | -9,570 | -13,025 | -14,434 | -133,899 | -72,552 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 15 ...

今天（12月31日），商务部等7部门发布《关于提质增效实施2026年消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对 汽车、家电、数码和智能产品等重点消费品的补贴范围和标准进行了优化升级。 此次新政策提出，2026年，中央继续安排超长期特别国债资金，各地按比例安排配套资金，支持消费品 以旧换新政策实施。 在汽车方面，《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》明确，明年将继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更 新，全国统一按照新车销售价格的固定比例给予补贴。 记者注意到，此次新政策给予了地方更多自主空间，支持新技术新产品发展。 新政策提出，对地方安排的配套资金，允许各地在符合消费品以旧换新政策导向前提下，用于因地制宜 自主制定实施增量补贴政策。对中央下达的支持资金，除用于执行中央统一明确的汽车报废更新、汽车 置换更新、6类家电以旧换新、4类数码和智能产品购新等4个领域补贴政策之外，各地还可用于支持智 能家居（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任邹蕴涵：今年在中央承担主要责任的基础上，给予地方 更多的自主权。地方可以根据当地群众的购买需求、购买特点，或者其他情况，来进一步在一定范围内 增加一些消费品的以旧 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-31 震荡运⾏为主，关注钢⼚复产与下游补 库节奏 国家发展改⾰委、财政部发布关于2026年实施⼤规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知，政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库， 基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏。铁矿⾼库存或将⾯临堆存费征收的 压⼒，盘⾯上涨乏⼒。焦煤交割博弈加剧，盘⾯波动剧烈。玻璃供给 扰动带动玻纯盘⾯价格反弹，但供需过剩压制上⽅空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后蒙煤进口冲量行为将 有所改善，总体供应压力将得到缓解，焦煤基本面将延续边际改善， 期现价格仍有上涨动力。 3. 合金方面：内蒙 ...

●2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达 据介绍，2026年"两新"政策主要做了3个方面优化。 优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合 体、购物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。消费品以旧换新方面，进一步集中 资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消费品"得补率"。继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更 新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类 产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手 表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）。 优化补贴标准。设备更新方面，将住宅老旧电梯更新由定额补贴调整为按电梯层（站）数分档差异 化补贴；在老旧营运货车报废更新补贴中，优先支持更新为电动货车。消费品以旧换新方面，在保持汽 车补贴上限不变的基础上，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴；家电以旧换新调整为补贴1级能效 或水效产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

通知明确，设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养老机 构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合体、购 物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。这些新部署，有望更好发挥设备更新对产 业升级、节能降碳、民生改善和高质量发展的支撑作用。 在消费品以旧换新方面，明年汽车置换、洗衣机和冰箱等家电换新还有没有补贴？购买智能手机、 智能手环还能申请补贴吗？ 透过这些规定看，消费品以旧换新进一步集中资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消费 品"得补率"。 答案是肯定的：继续支持。 二是优化补贴标准。 明年"两新"政策，将继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支 持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品。同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为 数码和智能产品购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品 （含适老化家居产品）。 为充分发挥超长期特别国债资金效益，进一步提高补贴质效，2026年"两新"政策对一些领域的补贴 标准作出了优化完善。 12月30日，备受社 ...

【今日头条】 两部门：2026年个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品 按产品销售价格的 15%给予补贴 国家发展改革委、财政部发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知。支持家电 以旧换新。个人消费者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类家电中1级能效或水效标准 的产品，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过1500元。 支持数码和智能产品购新。个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品（单件销 售价格不超过6000元），按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴 不超过500元。支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴，具体补贴品类、补贴标准由地方结 合实际自主合理制定。 【大势展望】 隔夜COMEX白银期货上涨7.88% 隔夜美股道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌94.87点，收于48367.06点，跌幅为0.2%；标准普尔500 种股票指数下跌9.5点，收于6896.24点，跌幅为0.14%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌55.27点，收于23419.08 点，跌幅为0.24% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

【两部门：2026年个人购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品 给予15%补贴】12月30 日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知。支持 家电以旧换新。个人消费者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类家电中1级能效或水效 标准的产品，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过1500 元。支持数码和智能产品购新。个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品（单 件销售价格不超过6000元），按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件 补贴不超过500元。支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴，具体补贴品类、补贴标准由地 方结合实际自主合理制定。 【机会前瞻】 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的具体补贴标准与执行细则。与2025年相比，新政策最引人注目的变 化是将智能眼镜正式纳入补贴范围，这是被视为"下一代人机交互入口"的智能眼镜首次获得国家级消费 政策支持。 【 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 2026年"国补"政策来了！ 12月30日晚间消息，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。 2026年，将继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰 箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品 购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品。 另据新华社报道，近日，国家发改委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别 国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 两部门重磅发布 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发的《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的 通知》（以下简称"通知"）对外发布。据悉，2026年"两新"政策主要做了3个方面优化： 一是优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消 ...