Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated his preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council rather than nominating him for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, suggesting a shift in expectations regarding the Fed's leadership [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The likelihood of Kevin Walsh being nominated for the next Federal Reserve Chair increased from slightly above 40% to around 60% following Trump's comments, while Hassett's chances dropped from approximately 35% to about 15% [1]. - Kevin Walsh, a visiting scholar at Stanford University, previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 and was considered by Trump for the Fed Chair position in 2017 before Powell was ultimately chosen [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Context - Since taking office again, Trump has advocated for significant interest rate cuts and has publicly criticized Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2].

特朗普此前称，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 特朗普作出上述表态后，美国预测平台"卡尔希"网站和波利市场预测网站均显示，沃什获美联储下任主 席提名的可能性从略高于40%的水平显著升至60%左右，而哈西特获得提名的概率从35%左右降至约 15%。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。特朗普2017年就美联储主 席一职面试过沃什，但最终选择了时任美联储理事鲍威尔。鲍威尔的美联储主席职务任期将于今年5月 份结束。 再次就任美国总统以来，特朗普主张大幅降息，曾多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。（完） 特朗普当天在出席一场公开会议时对在场的哈西特说："实际上，我想让你待在原地。" 新华社纽约1月16日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普16日上午在白宫讲话时暗示，他打算让美国白宫 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特继续担任现职，而非提名他出任下一任美国联邦储备委员会主席。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's hesitation regarding the nomination of Kevin Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has disrupted the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market, with market participants reassessing potential interest rate paths based on different candidates' policies [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments, betting markets indicated a significant drop in Hassett's chances of being nominated, with former Fed governor Waller's probability rising to nearly 60% [1][3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.23%, the highest level since September 2 of the previous year, while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since December 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Hassett was previously viewed as the leading candidate to succeed current Fed Chair Powell, known for his loyalty to Trump and potential to advocate for interest rate cuts. His exit could lead to a more hawkish candidate being appointed [3][6]. - Waller, in contrast, is seen as a more unpredictable candidate with a history of hawkish views, even advocating for rate hikes during the financial crisis. His recent calls for rate cuts have raised questions about his future policy direction [6][7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The recent spike in Treasury yields followed a period of stability, with the 10-year yield trading within a narrow range of just 8 basis points earlier in the month [8][10]. - The low volatility in the Treasury market, indicated by the ICE BofA MOVE index dropping to its lowest level since September 2021, has contributed to the market's subdued activity [10].

【导读】美股跳水，黄金白银暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注全球市场的表现。 1月16日晚间，美股三大指数高开低走，随后不断跳水。 贵金属方面，黄金、白银价格也在同步跳水暴跌。 那么，究竟发生了什么事情？原来，特朗普又释放了一个美联储的重磅消息。 美国总统特朗普对提名凯文·哈塞特出任美联储主席一事表现得并不积极，这进一步加深了外界对他寻找下一任央行掌门人的不确定性。特朗普暗示哈塞 特可能不会成为美联储新主席，此前哈塞特多次呼吁美联储大幅降息。 | 最高: 49616.70 | 今开: 49466.70 | 52周最高: 49633.35 | 量比: 1.74 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 49271.67 | 昨收:49442.44 | 52周最低: 36611.78 | 振幅: 0.70% | | | 成交量: 1.54亿股 | | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | | 最新:49295.02 -147.42 -0.30% | | ...

【周六你需要知道的隔夜全球要闻：美联储新掌门再生变数，金属、美债应声下挫；特朗普关税案下周 或迎美最高法裁决】 1、特朗普周五表示，如果哈塞特不再当国家经济委员会主任，他的政府将失去最 有力的经济代言人之一，想让他继续留任。哈塞特一直被视为接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的最热门人选 之一。 2、由于遴选下一任美联储主席的进程再添不确定性，金属全线下跌，现货黄金一度下跌1.7%， 现货白银一度下跌5.1%，LME期铜下跌2.3%，LME期铝下跌1.1%，LME期镍下跌5.3%，LME期锌下跌 3.2%，LME期锡下跌7.8%，LME期铅下跌2.6%。 3、随着市场加码押注凯文·沃什将获美联储主席提 名，美国国债价格下跌，交易员下调了对美联储2026年降息两次的预期。 4、交易员们评估伊朗紧张局 势以及更广泛市场的积极情绪，油价以小幅上涨结束动荡一周。WTI2月原油期货收于每桶59.44美元， 涨幅为0.42%；布伦特3月原油期货收于每桶64.13美元，涨幅为0.58%。 5、美国财长贝森特表示，美联 储主席候选人缩减至4人，预计美联储主席人选将在达沃斯之前或回来以后做决定。 6、特朗普称，可 能会对那些不支持美国获得 ...

据彭博社，Donald Trump 表示对提名 Kevin Hassett 出任 Federal Reserve 主席持保留态度，原因在于 Hassett 目前担任白宫国家经济委员会主任，是政府对外传达经济政策的重要人物，若调任将削弱这一 角色。尽管 Hassett 曾被视为接替现任主席 Jerome Powell 的主要人选，但相关提名在参议院面临阻力， Trump 近期仍在评估其他候选人，并称将在未来几周内作出决定。 （来源：吴说） ...

【导读】美股跳水，黄金白银暴跌 大家好，今晚继续关注全球市场的表现。 1月16日晚间，美股三大指数高开低走，随后不断跳水。 贵金属方面，黄金、白银价格也在同步跳水暴跌。 与此同时，特朗普填补美联储职位空缺的行动在参议院已遭遇阻力，因为总统的提名需要参议院确认。参议院银行委员会的关键共和党人、参议员汤姆· 蒂利斯誓言，在司法部对美联储的调查结果出炉之前，他将反对总统提出的任何人选。其他共和党参议员也对这项调查提出了质疑。 特朗普在周五的讲话中没有直接回应上述争议，但暗示他的遴选流程仍未最终敲定。他最近表示，计划在未来几周内公布美联储主席提名人选。 "我们不想失去他，"特朗普谈到哈塞特时说。"看看最后会怎么发展吧。" 在特朗普发表相关言论后，前美联储理事凯文·沃什跃升为角逐美联储主席的最热门人选。 在Kalshi平台上，交易者将沃什的胜算大幅推高，使其明显领先于被视为最接近竞争对手的凯文·哈塞特。 那么，究竟发生了什么事情？原来，特朗普又释放了一个美联储的重磅消息。 美国总统特朗普对提名凯文·哈塞特出任美联储主席一事表现得并不积极，这进一步加深了外界对他寻找下一任央行掌门人的不确定性。特朗普暗示哈塞 特可能不会成 ...

【导读】美股跳水，黄金白银暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注全球市场的表现。 1月16日晚间，美股三大指数高开低走，随后不断跳水。 | 最高: 49616.70 | 今开: 49466.70 | 52周最高: 49633.35 | 量比: 1.74 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 49271.67 | 昨收:49442.44 | 52周最低: 36611.78 | 振幅: 0.70% | | | 成交量: 1.54亿股 | | | | | | 分时 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 孝K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | | 最新:49295.02 -147.42 -0.30% | | | | | | 49616.70 | | | | 0.359 | | 49573.13 | | | | 0.269 | | 49529.57 | | | | 0.189 | | 49486 01 | | | | 0 090 | | 纳斯达克综合指数(NASDAQ:.IXIC) | | | ag ... 加自选 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may influence his decision to remain on the board after his term ends in May, amidst President Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts [1][8]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Market Reactions - Following the investigation news, the probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve by May 30 has dropped from 74% to 45%, and the likelihood of him leaving by the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62% [1][3]. - Market participants are increasingly speculating that Powell may stay on the board for an extended period, potentially until 2028, to uphold the Fed's independence [8][10]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - The pressure exerted on Powell by Trump may backfire, as premature interest rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, undermining the Fed's credibility [8]. - The investigation has brought the issue of the Fed's independence to the forefront, with Powell's potential decision to remain seen as a move to protect that independence [8][10]. Group 3: Nomination Dynamics - The probability of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has diminished, with Kevin Warsh gaining more support among potential candidates [4][7]. - Trump's proposal to nominate Hassett faces increasing challenges in the Senate, particularly due to Hassett's support for aggressive rate cuts [8][9].

Inflation Data - The US December 2025 CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices down by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.8% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.18%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.2[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a near 0% probability for January and less than 30% for March[3] - The market anticipates approximately 2.1 rate cuts throughout 2026[3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - Recent developments in the nomination of the new Fed chair have created uncertainty, with close probabilities for candidates Waller and Hassett[4] - Current chair Powell faces criminal charges, leading to discontent among Republican senators, which may impact the nomination process[4]