1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper**: The short - term price range is expected to be between 77,300 and 79,000, and the medium - term range is 60,000 - 90,000. A volatile trading strategy is recommended. Trump's proposed 50% tariff on US copper imports, supply changes in Chile and Indonesia, weak growth in Chinese home air - conditioner exports, and inventory increases are the main influencing factors. The high tariff may negatively impact real demand in the US [1][2]. Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Protein Meal**: In the short term, the fluctuation of soybean meal is smaller than that of soybean oil. The soybean meal 2509 contract is expected to find a bottom in the range of [2,875, 3,100]. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850. The weather during the growing season of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, trade policies, and the results of relevant hearings are the key factors affecting the market [3][5]. Petroleum Asphalt - In the short term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate and strengthen following the cost of crude oil. In the long term, the supply is on the rise, and factors such as typhoon weather in summer and insufficient project funds may affect the release of rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement of asphalt demand in August [6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Supply**: In June, Chile's copper export value was $4.67 billion, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Indonesia may relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to local economic impacts [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's home air - conditioner exports were 9.695 million units, a slight 0.1% year - on - year increase, affected by the high base last year and "rush - to - export" behavior [1]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, LME copper inventory increased by 4,625 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 2,227 tons to 21,336 tons [2]. Protein Meal - **Soybean**: From late May to now, the soil moisture of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds has been good. As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of 25/26 US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. Anec expects sufficient soybean arrivals in South America in July and August, and the trend of imported soybean inventory accumulation is gradually ending [3][4]. - **Rapeseed**: The drought in Canadian new - crop rapeseeds in late June has recently improved. As of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseeds in Alberta has recovered from 45% to 58%. The development progress of oilseed crops and annual forage crops in Saskatchewan is still slower than normal but earlier than last year [4]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Supply**: As of July 8, the production profit of asphalt in Shandong independent refineries was - 543.66 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 95.61 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt refinery operating rate was 32.7%, a weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point. The domestic weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,000 tons. In the first six months of this year, China's cumulative asphalt production was 13.781 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for asphalt is weak, mainly restricted by capital shortages and heavy rainfall in the South. The demand in the North is relatively stable. After the plum - rain season in East and South China in July, it theoretically enters the peak demand season, but some northern regions are still affected by rainfall. The social inventory depletion has slowed down [7]. - **Cost**: The extension of the US tariff negotiation period and Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have provided upward momentum for oil prices. In summer, the peak driving season arrives, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries return to normal, and US shale oil production has declined for ten consecutive weeks, providing some support for oil prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is negotiating with the US to protect its automotive industry from high import tariffs, aiming to reach a trade agreement framework before the August 1 deadline set by Trump [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - Brussels is discussing measures such as reducing tariffs, setting import quotas, and providing deductions for EU car manufacturers' exports to the US [1] - The negotiations are part of the European Commission's efforts to secure tariff reductions in key sectors like automotive and aerospace [1] - A proposal on the negotiation table includes tariff reductions for car manufacturers producing in the US and exporting to other countries [1] Group 2: Importance of Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is considered a "red line" for the EU, making US concessions on this issue a prerequisite for any agreement [1] - EU negotiators are prioritizing the automotive industry in their discussions, indicating its critical importance to the EU economy [1] Group 3: Progress of Negotiations - Sources indicate that the negotiations are progressing "rapidly," suggesting a potential for a timely resolution [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam has officially announced an increase in tariffs on hot-rolled steel from China, with rates ranging from 23.01% to 7.83%, effective for five years [3] - This decision comes shortly after a trade agreement was announced between the US and Vietnam, indicating Vietnam's attempt to align with US interests [3][4] - The move reflects Vietnam's strategic shift in its trade relationships, prioritizing US relations over its historical ties with China [4][8] Group 2 - Vietnam's domestic demand for hot-rolled steel is approximately 12 to 13 million tons annually, while local production can only meet about 10 million tons, raising questions about the necessity of imposing tariffs on Chinese imports [6] - The decision to target Chinese steel specifically, despite also importing from India, suggests a politically motivated action rather than an economic necessity [6] - Vietnam's reliance on the US is highlighted by a projected trade surplus with the US of $104.6 billion in 2024, which is over four times its overall trade surplus, indicating vulnerability to US pressure [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions between the United States and BRICS nations, particularly India, due to trade policies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1][4][10] - President Trump announced that the U.S. would release tariff letters or agreements with trade partners, and any country supporting BRICS' "anti-American policies" would face an additional 10% tariff [1][8] - India has been negotiating with the U.S. for a trade agreement but faces challenges due to high tariffs on automotive parts and demands for agricultural market access, leading to growing dissatisfaction within India [1][3] Group 2 - India has rejected the large-scale entry of U.S. genetically modified agricultural products, citing food security and the protection of its agricultural sector, which is vital for its rural population [3][4] - In response to U.S. tariffs totaling $725 million on Indian goods, India plans to impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. products, asserting its rights under WTO rules [3][4] - The recent BRICS summit in Brazil provided India an opportunity to reassess its international positioning, with India voting in favor of a joint statement criticizing rising tariffs, indirectly targeting U.S. policies [4][10] Group 3 - India's shift in attitude at the BRICS summit reflects its realization of the need to diversify its international alliances and reduce dependence on the U.S. amid tough trade negotiations [7][10] - The BRICS nations, which account for a significant portion of the global economy, are increasingly uniting against U.S. trade policies, with potential implications for global trade dynamics [8][10] - The article suggests that the upcoming U.S. tariff announcements could lead to a new round of adjustments in global trade, with India's role in U.S.-India trade relations and BRICS cooperation being crucial to watch [10]

6 July 2025 | 11:36PM KST Vietnam: US-Vietnam Trade Deal: 20% US Tariffs (40% for Transshipment) Bottom line: On July 2, President Trump announced a new trade deal between the US and Vietnam. It includes a 20% tariff on US imports from Vietnam, a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, and zero tariffs on Vietnamese imports from the US. Since over one-third of Vietnam's intermediate imports come from China, Chinese goods routed through Vietnam could be significantly affected by the 40% tariff. Mai ...

Group 1 - The Indian government is taking a strong stance against the U.S. by threatening to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain American products in response to increased tariffs on Indian automotive products [1][2] - India has proposed to the WTO to impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods, amounting to a total of $725 million, which matches the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indian exports [2] - The Indian automotive sector, which exports $2.89 billion, is significantly impacted by the U.S. tariffs of 25% on Indian cars and parts [2] Group 2 - India is unwilling to rush into a trade agreement with the U.S., emphasizing that negotiations should be based on strength and mutual benefit rather than deadlines [2][3] - The Indian delegation has returned from negotiations in Washington, indicating unresolved issues in agriculture and automotive sectors [2] - India is resisting U.S. pressure to open its agricultural and dairy sectors, which are politically sensitive and economically significant for rural populations [3] Group 3 - The Indian government prioritizes the interests of its farmers and is unwilling to compromise on core interests, maintaining that negotiations will not be conducted under pressure [3] - The Indian agriculture minister has stated that any trade negotiations will focus on the welfare of farmers, reflecting the government's commitment to protecting rural livelihoods [3]

柬埔寨宣布与美国就关税谈判达成一致柬埔寨政府宣布，围绕对等关税的贸易协定框架，与美国讨论了联合声明并达成一致意见。关税税率等细节尚未公布。联合声明将于近期公布。🗒️特朗普4月向柬埔寨提出了49%的对等关税率。这一税率在东南亚最高。柬埔寨在服装等方面对美国的出口比例较高。如果按计划征收关税，将对就业环境等产生严重影响。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普宣称已经采取了宽容态度，决定施加“打折”的对等关税。随后白宫公布对多国加征对等关税的清单：中国 34%欧盟 20%越南 46%中国台湾 32%日本 24%印度 26%韩国 25%泰国 36%瑞士 31%印尼 32%马来西亚 24%柬埔寨 49%英国 10%南非 30%巴西 10%新加坡 10%以色列 17%菲律宾 17%智利 https://t.co/VFqtk3WzEj ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, expressed optimism about the trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, believing a fair agreement will be reached soon [1] - Hoekstra highlighted that both President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney are negotiating for beneficial agreements for their respective countries, aiming for a "real win-win" situation [1] - Following the suspension of trade talks by Trump, Canada announced the cancellation of its digital services tax, aiming to finalize a trade agreement by July 21 [1] Group 2 - The background of the tariff dispute includes a trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, signed during Trump's first term, which was later disregarded by Trump in his second term [2] - In response to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tax on steel and aluminum, Canada implemented counter-tariffs on U.S. manufactured goods worth billions, including vehicles and consumer products [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney chose not to retaliate when Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum shortly after taking office [2]

金十数据7月3日讯，德商银行外汇与大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen指出，昨日美国政府宣布与越南 达成贸易协议。乍看之下，这似乎是美国政府的胜利，但前提是认同"通过关税抑制进口吸引力具有经 济意义"这一逻辑。对此我深表怀疑。越南向美国出口的除大量消费品外，还包括咖啡等商品。且不论 美国能否迅速提升纺织品（越南主要出口品类）的产能，仅咖啡一项就难以替代——毕竟美国本土（除 夏威夷外）根本不具备适宜咖啡种植的气候条件。因此结论显而易见：即便关税不再高得离谱，进口关 税仍可能弊大于利。更何况越南经济规模有限，缺乏足够购买力来大幅增加美国进口。美元昨日未因该 协议消息走强，也就不足为奇了。 德商银行：美越达成贸易协定 美元"无动于衷"并不足为奇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is perceived as an unequal treaty, where Vietnam opens its domestic market in exchange for a 20% base tariff reduction on its exports to the U.S., potentially leading to severe consequences for its local industries [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The agreement includes a 40% punitive tariff on "third-country transshipment goods," specifically targeting the Chinese supply chain, which could severely impact Vietnam's electronics and textile sectors [3]. - Vietnam's early disclosure of negotiation positions, particularly in agricultural market access, lacks transitional protection, risking the collapse of its agricultural system under U.S. subsidized products [3][4]. - The influx of U.S. goods at zero tariffs may provide short-term consumer benefits but will likely lead to long-term damage to Vietnam's manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive industry where local brands hold less than 5% market share [3][5]. Group 2: Cultural and Economic Sovereignty - The U.S. demands for Vietnam to fully open its entertainment market could lead to a monopoly by American platforms like Netflix and Disney, undermining local cultural industries and altering the value perceptions of the younger generation [4]. - The agreement's "90-day grace period" serves as a political leverage tool, indicating the U.S. view of Vietnam as a battleground in the trade war with China, which may undermine Vietnam's geopolitical standing [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Risks - Historical precedents show that developing countries often suffer severe consequences from unequal trade agreements, as seen in Mexico's corn industry post-NAFTA and China's WTO accession without sufficient protection [5]. - The agreement's stringent intellectual property protections and prohibition on technology transfer could permanently confine Vietnam to a low-end position in the global value chain, risking its long-term economic development [5]. - The current global shift from globalization to regionalization highlights the need for economic sovereignty, which Vietnam appears to be compromising, potentially leading to a loss of market share and development opportunities [5].