Core Viewpoint - Egypt's inflation rate remained unchanged at 12.3% in December, which may create conditions for the central bank to further lower borrowing costs in 2026 [1][3]. Inflation Data - The urban consumer price index in December showed a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in November [1][3]. - Egypt experienced a historical peak inflation rate of 38% in September 2023 and received $57 billion in global rescue funds, leading to ongoing efforts to control inflation [1][3]. Factors Affecting Inflation - Despite a significant reduction in overall inflation over the past year, recent adjustments in fuel subsidies supported by the International Monetary Fund and a legal amendment causing rent increases for millions of properties have prevented inflation from falling to single-digit levels [1][3]. - Food and beverage prices, which constitute the largest single category of inflation, increased by 1.5% year-on-year in December but decreased by 0.7% month-on-month [4]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The decline in inflation has provided the central bank with room to lower interest rates, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 725 basis points over five monetary policy meetings [4]. - The current benchmark deposit rate stands at 20%, with the next rate decision scheduled for February 12 [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the benchmark deposit rate may be further reduced by 700 basis points by 2026 [4].

旧金山联邦储备 银行行长Mary Daly表示，对决策者来说美联储目前正处于"微调"阶段。"我们现在并非 处于需要进行大规模政策调整的阶段，而是需要随着经济发展进行微调，"Daly在周五发布的接受Kyla Scanlon采访的播客节目中说道。Daly表示，最近一次降息旨在抵消劳动力市场的走软，并指出通胀率 仍高于美联储2%的目标。（智通财经） ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. decreased from a revised 4.5% in November to 4.4% last month, with employers adding 50,000 jobs, which was below expectations [1][3] - The decline in the unemployment rate may alleviate the Federal Reserve's concerns about a weak labor market and provide justification for maintaining policy interest rates for a longer period [1][3] - Despite the ongoing slowdown in monthly job growth, the improvement in the unemployment rate gives the Federal Reserve more breathing room to keep short-term borrowing costs unchanged while waiting for better inflation data [1][3] Group 2 - Following the employment report, short-term interest rate futures fell, with traders now estimating a 45% chance of a rate cut by April, down from approximately 50% before the report [2][4] - The market now believes it is more likely that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June [2][4]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is above 18457, with a recent opening at 18245 and a current report of 18597, reflecting a decrease of 2.54% [1] - The highest price reached today was 18872, while the lowest was 17830, indicating a short-term volatile trading pattern [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan expects a rate cut of 150 basis points this year to boost the labor market, with core inflation projected to remain around 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Silver TD prices experienced a significant drop of over 5% yesterday, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive days [2] - The one-hour MACD histogram indicates emerging bullish momentum, although prices remain below the zero line, suggesting that bearish conditions persist [2] - Key support levels for silver TD are identified between 16500 and 17500, while resistance levels are noted between 18500 and 19000 [2]

今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报1003.84 元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏向震 荡走势。 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1003.84元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线 偏向震荡走势。 在最近三次会议累计降息0.75个百分点后，美联储内部对今年降息幅度仍有分歧，部分官员倾向在数据 进一步明确前维持利率不变。米兰自去年9月起休长假担任美联储理事，任期将于本月结束，未来是否 留任尚未确定。外界预计特朗普可能利用该席位提名新主席，而鲍威尔5月任期结束后或另有一席空 缺。 【最新黄金行情解析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在高位震荡偏强一些的走势中，日线连续留下较长的下影线短周期均线 继续勾头向上发散，K线也继续在短周期均线上运行在日线走势上可能还有延续上行的空间，短期关注 下4500一带的压力带。4小时级别走势上技术形态开始逐步调整完成， ...

美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周四预测，美联储今年可能进一步小幅降息，以"应对劳动力市场的下行风 险"。 今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于77.32一线下方，今日开盘于76.91美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报77.03美元/盎司，上涨0.09%，最高触及77.49美元/盎司，最低下探75.45美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 另外，市场目前普遍预计美联储2026年将降息两次，这与美联储内部部分分歧形成对比——12月会议 上，美联储暗示今年仅降息一次，但交易员认为劳动力市场信号将推动更多宽松。 【要闻速递】 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 CBO指出，更高的关税以及特朗普政府减税政策带来的消费需求增长预计将使通胀率高于美联储2%的 目标。CBO在其最新的经济展望中表示，目前利率成本在3.5%至3.75%的区间内，预计第四季度将降至 3.4%，并维持在该水平直至2028年。 CBO预测，美国失业率今年将降至4.6%，并在2028年降至4.4%；而美联储青睐的PCE通胀率今年将降 至2.7%，并在2028年降至2.1%。 周四在确定74止跌后，给出了74.5做多看涨，虽然有部分利润，但前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates slightly to address the downside risks in the labor market, but will likely halt further reductions as inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's 2% target due to increased tariffs and demand growth driven by the Trump administration's tax cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to make a slight interest rate cut in response to labor market risks [1] - Inflation is projected to stay above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve in the coming years [1] - Factors contributing to sustained inflation include increased tariffs and demand growth from tax policies [1]

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周四预测，美联储今年可能进一步小幅降息，以"应对劳动力市场的下行 风险"。CBO指出，更高的关税以及特朗普政府减税政策带来的消费需求增长预计将使通胀率高于美联 储2%的目标。CBO在其最新的经济展望中表示，目前利率成本在3.5%至3.75%的区间内，预计第四季 度将降至3.4%，并维持在该水平直至2028年。CBO预测，美国失业率今年将降至4.6%，并在2028年降 至4.4%；而美联储青睐的PCE通胀率今年将降至2.7%，并在2028年降至2.1%。 ...

据欧盟统计局1月7日初步数据显示，2025年12月份欧元区通胀率为2%。从品类看，服务业涨幅为 3.4%，食品、酒精和烟草涨幅为2.6%，非能源工业品涨幅为0.4%，能源价格同比下降1.9%。 欧元区成员国中，12月份爱沙尼亚和斯洛伐克的通胀率为4.1%，居欧元区之首；其次是奥地利和克罗 地亚，分别为3.9%和3.8%；塞浦路斯的通胀率最低，为0.1%。 ...

Market Insights - In December 2025, private sector employment in the US increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations [1][11] - The US ISM Services PMI rose by 1.8 points to 54.4 in December 2025, marking the highest level since October 2024, with new orders increasing at the fastest rate since September 2024 [1][11] - The unemployment rate in Germany reached 6.3% in December 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of rising unemployment [2][12] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.0%, down from 2.1% in November, aligning with the European Central Bank's target [2][12] - In December 2025, the number of job vacancies in the US fell to 7.146 million, significantly below the expected 7.6 million, the lowest level since September 2024 [1][11] Commodity and Financial Markets - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $4,467.10 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce [8][17] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 466.00 points, closing at 48,996.08, a decline of 0.94%, while the S&P 500 fell by 23.89 points to 6,920.93, a drop of 0.34% [16] - The DAX index in Frankfurt surpassed 25,000 points for the first time, reaching a historical high, attributed to government infrastructure investments and a recent increase in risk appetite in European and global markets [16]