Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23) is highly anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals potentially acting as a key catalyst for gold price movements [1] - The market is currently experiencing cautious consolidation at high levels due to heightened uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine situation and comments from Trump regarding tariffs [1] - The focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 17, with a recent economist survey on August 15 indicating ongoing market divergence in interpreting Fed policies [1] Group 2: Gold Price Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a slight breakdown in the daily chart, with short-term trends focusing on support around 3310 [3] - A descending wedge pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential bullish breakout risks, but is currently constrained by the 100-period simple moving average at $3346.98 [3] - Key resistance is identified at $3370, with a breakthrough potentially leading to targets of $3400 and the early August high of $3410; however, a drop below $3330 could direct prices towards $3300 and possibly test the August low of $3282 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [5] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [5] - The silver market opened at $38.024, experienced fluctuations, and closed at $37.377, forming a large bearish candle, with short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5]

本周周一，黄金亚市早盘开盘先行走低，直接走出了上周五整日波幅，其周末特朗普宣布与俄罗斯取得 重大进展，对金价造成打压，虽然在触底低点有所反弹，但预计力度有限，日内美乌将在华盛顿会晤， 料将再度打压金价，故此今日金价走势依然还是偏空回落为主。 另外，本周包括初请等一系列数据都预期都偏向利好金价，再加上市场也即将进入9月降息利好预期前 景。 不过，由于美联储官员仍表示年内将降息两次，特朗普表示未来两周将确定钢铁和芯片关税，半导体关 税有可能高达300%；并扩大对钢铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品纳入清单。这将再度 提振金价； 所以，金价当下虽偏弱回落，也需关注在利空消息出尽后，触及100日均线支撑或30周均线附近后，产 生的看涨买盘需求和机会。 日图；金价再度运行在中轨及60日等均线下方，空头占据优势，走势偏弱看空，但下方临近100日均线 支撑，以及震荡区间的底部支撑，故此，如进一步回落，下方触及此等支撑位置，也可先行看涨，上方 则关注各均线阻力压制，多头需重回中轨上方才能加大看涨动力。 ...

黄金市场上周：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，几乎收复前两周涨幅，但仍处于中轨上方，且布林带也趋向缩口，暗示后市仍将维持震荡调整为主波动，并在方 向上方，仍趋向向上攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3398.34美元/盎司，便先行录得当周高点3404.51美元后，则遇阻回落，日跌超1.6%，跌幅55美金，虽而收取止跌形态，周三 到周四也止跌震荡回升表现，但周四反弹的多头未能持稳，最终回落收复前两日反弹涨幅，微幅刷新周二低点至3329.84美元当周低点，周五震荡偏弱， 收于3336.11美元，周振幅74.67美元，收跌62.23美元，跌幅1.83%。 影响上，受到中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天，以及黄金税谣言的破除等，金价遇阻回落，虽然由于特朗普再次炮轰鲍威尔应立即降息，美财长也甚至建 议降息50个基点，投资者也基本锁定美联储9月降息，令金价止跌震荡回升； 张尧浠：地缘会晤压力有限、降息加关税预再助金价多头 周图，金价自去年开涨攀升以来，如期第4次回踩中轨线支撑展开震荡调整，虽然附图指标一直处于空头信号发展，但持续处于中轨上方的震荡调整，也 是在消耗空头压力，那么对于后市来讲，大概率也将震荡调整之后，再度向上走强攀升。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that there is currently no significant momentum in gold prices for the short term, suggesting a stable market environment [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The analysis highlights that gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and interest rates, which are expected to remain stable in the near term [1] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have not led to a substantial increase in gold demand, indicating a lack of urgency among investors [1] Group 2: Price Trends - Recent data shows that gold prices have fluctuated within a narrow range, with no clear upward or downward trend observed [1] - The report mentions that gold prices are currently hovering around a specific level, reflecting a balance between supply and demand in the market [1]

宝城期货分析指出，继上周五纽约金冲高回落，本周一金价维持颓势，纽约金由3450美元回落至3400美 元关口，沪金和伦敦金也跟随下行。此前市场预期美国将对黄金征税，昨日美国总统特朗普称黄金不会 被加征关税。短期纽约金冲高回落，依旧处于二季度以来震荡区间，关税预期被证伪，预计持续震荡偏 弱运行。 消息面上，美国财长贝森特在接受采访时表示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策旨在将制造业带回美国。贸 易方面，他认为到10月底前就能基本完成相关工作。 8月11日，受特朗普黄金不会被征收关税表态及美贸易谈判预计10月结束消息催化，金价大幅跳水，创 近一周新低，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌2.80%报3393.7美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)跌1.05%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌2.53%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have drawn significant attention from global investors, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations, with a medium-term upward trend anticipated after short-term adjustments [1][3] Price Fluctuations - As of August 11, COMEX gold futures were priced at $3415.7 per ounce, down approximately 2%, while London gold spot prices were at $3359.81 per ounce, indicating a period of high volatility since late July [1] - The price gap between international gold futures and spot prices has widened significantly, reaching levels not seen in recent years, with a peak difference of over $100 per ounce [2] Market Dynamics - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which heightened concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 22 tons in global official gold reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases, with China's gold reserves reaching 2300.41 tons by the end of July [2] Future Price Predictions - Institutions generally expect gold prices to maintain an upward trajectory, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential rise to $3700 per ounce by year-end, and some optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4000 per ounce [3] - UBS maintains a price target of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for $3800 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate or global economic conditions worsen [4] Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 78%, and inflows into gold ETFs reaching the fastest half-year growth since 2010, indicating strong market interest [4] - UBS has revised its annual gold ETF demand forecast from 450 tons to slightly above 600 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, despite current holdings being approximately 650 tons below historical peaks [4]

黄金股早盘走低，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)跌4.92%，报25.52港元；山东黄金(01787)跌4.5%，报 28.46港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌3.15%，报73.9港元；紫金矿业(02899)跌0.69%，报22.9港元。 消息面上，8月7日，中国人民银行数据显示，7月末黄金储备达7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，已连续 9个月增持。世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月 环比小幅上升。2025年上半年全球央行净购金量达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 招商证券8月初发布研报称，金价短期上涨动力减弱。 虽然黄金具备配置价值，但在短期维度，上涨动 能不足，需警惕局部过热风险。该机构建议投资者，关注结构性机会，而非全面押注黄金上涨。东证期 货指出，市场对未来美联储降息的预期增加，但也基本反映在了金价中。 ...

| 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 769. 80 | 元/克 | | 采自黄金 | 775.30 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 767. 60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 773.90 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 782.80 | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金走势有点类似于前一日，整体呈V型走势。不过昨日金价在晚间回升后，再次迎来下跌，最终收报3369.19美元/盎司，跌幅0.33%。 今日金价暂有上行趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3377.67美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | l | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | O | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a pullback from an eight-day high of approximately $3,390, influenced by concerns over the Federal Reserve's appointments and potential easing measures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar entered a downward consolidation phase due to worries surrounding the Federal Reserve's appointments and further easing [2][5]. - On Tuesday, gold prices closed above the critical resistance level of $3,380, with a bullish crossover indicated on the daily relative strength index [2][3]. - President Trump announced he would soon decide on a short-term replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and mentioned four candidates to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM reported that the services PMI for July fell to 50.1, down from 50.8 in June and below market expectations of 51.5 [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold remains optimistic, with the 14-day RSI holding above the midline, currently close to 55, suggesting any downward movement may be temporary [10]. - A bullish crossover was confirmed as the 21-day moving average surpassed the 50-day simple moving average at Tuesday's close [10]. - Immediate resistance is at the $3,400 level, with the next bullish target set at the static resistance of $3,440, followed by the June 16 high of $3,453 [10].

中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...