Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing pressure due to a strong US dollar and optimistic economic data from the US, with gold prices expected to maintain a range-bound movement before potentially rising [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have dropped 0.5% this week, trading above $3,330 [3]. - The dollar index is expected to achieve its second consecutive week of gains, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers [3]. - Recent US economic data shows a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for June, exceeding market expectations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, better than the forecast of 235,000 [3]. - These positive indicators suggest a solid US economic foundation, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term gold prices are fluctuating within the $3,377 to $3,320 range, with a potential breakout indicating initial directional signals [3][4]. - The $3,320 to $3,300 area is expected to provide solid support, aiding gold in challenging the upper range of $3,373 to $3,377 [4]. - If gold breaks above this range, it could target psychological resistance at $3,400 and the June 16 high of $3,452 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent weakness, gold has not firmly broken below the 10-week moving average support, indicating a potential for upward movement after a period of consolidation [4]. - The daily chart shows a rebound from recent lows, maintaining support above the 60-day moving average, suggesting continued range-bound adjustments [4][5]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,330 and $3,320, while resistance is noted at $3,445 and $3,460 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards bank gold purchases over traditional jewelry stores [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price fluctuated between $3,300 and $3,380, with a closing price of $1,986.65 per ounce on July 15, translating to approximately 459 yuan per gram in the domestic market [7]. - The construction bank's gold repurchase window is seeing long queues, indicating a preference for bank gold bars, which are perceived as more profitable compared to jewelry store buyback prices [5][8]. - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 6 tons in June, highlighting a trend of institutional accumulation [7]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting for bank gold bars due to lower costs and better returns, as illustrated by a customer who calculated a significant difference in processing fees between bank gold and jewelry store purchases [8]. - A customer expressed regret over selling gold jewelry back to a store at a loss, emphasizing the growing awareness of the financial implications of gold purchases [3]. - The contrasting experiences at jewelry stores, where foot traffic is declining, versus banks, where demand is rising, reflect a shift in consumer sentiment towards gold investments [5][8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not sustained upward pressure on gold prices, as evidenced by a brief price increase followed by a rapid decline [7]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation control remains a critical factor affecting market expectations, with recent inflation data dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts [8].

Core Insights - Gold prices have been on a steady rise since the beginning of 2025, with significant year-to-date increases across various markets, including a 25.84% rise in London gold prices and a 25.52% rise in COMEX gold prices as of June 30 [1][4] - The performance of A-share gold mining companies has improved in line with rising gold prices, with all seven listed companies that released half-year performance forecasts expecting year-on-year profit increases, the highest being Western Gold with an expected increase of 141.66% [1][2] Company Performance - Among the seven companies that disclosed performance forecasts, Hunan Gold is expected to have a net profit of less than 1 billion yuan, while the other six companies anticipate profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining Group projecting approximately 23.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.1 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The performance forecast for China National Gold is expected to show a net profit growth of 50% to 65%, leading to a significant stock price increase of 9.73% on the first trading day after the announcement [3] Market Trends - The gold market is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, loose monetary policies, and increased gold reserves by central banks, although there may be short-term adjustment pressures [4][5] - Analysts predict that the international gold price will fluctuate between 3,000 and 3,500 USD per ounce in the second half of the year, with gold maintaining its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty [5] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider gold as a strategic asset for hedging against economic uncertainties, with recommendations to gradually build positions during market adjustments [5] - Caution is advised for ordinary investors entering the gold market at current high price levels, emphasizing the importance of rational asset allocation to avoid increased financial risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on gold prices due to the strong rebound of the US dollar and questions whether gold can maintain the key support level of $3,300 [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's strong rebound is impacting gold prices negatively [1] - There is a focus on whether gold can hold the $3,300 threshold amidst current market conditions [1]

•瑞达期货：金价短期内或仍延续区间震荡格局 •申银万国期货：黄金长期驱动仍然提供支撑 但价位较高上行迟疑 •西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 •高盛：预计金价到2025年底达到每盎司3700美元 •Heraeus：最近美元的疲软预测可能有助于重启金价涨势 •瑞达期货表示，此前"大而美"减税法案的正式通过缓解了短期内市场对于美国政府债务上限问题的担 忧，经济预期小幅改善，税改法案推动长端美债收益率预期上行，美元获得一定支撑，短期内金价上行 受相对受阻。投资者静待即将公布的美国6月CPI通胀数据，预计关税政策加码或推动核心商品通胀边 际反弹，核心服务业通胀或延续放缓态势。本次CPI数据超出预期或推动9月降息预期继续下行，虽近 期有部分联储官员释放鸽派降息信号，但近期特朗普对于关税税率的上调给未来通胀前景续添不确定 性，美联储整体仍维持偏观望的态度，关税对于通胀影响的不确定性或加剧贵金属市场的多空博弈，金 价短期内或仍延续区间震荡格局。 •申银万国期货表示，近期良好经济数据下，美联储提前降息预期降温，美元企稳金银承压。但是美联 储官员们表态呈现分化，部分官员表示支持7月降息，但降息有着通胀降低、就业数据转弱、 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the downward trend of gold prices and questions whether there is potential for a long-term bullish outlook [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The article highlights the volatility of the US dollar against non-US currencies, which is contributing to the weakening of gold prices [1] - It raises concerns about the possibility of further declines in gold prices and the conditions necessary for a rebound [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop in both spot and futures prices, alongside the performance of related ETFs and the implications of upcoming U.S. tariff policy changes on market sentiment [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 7, spot gold prices fell below $3,310, experiencing a drop of over 1% before recovering [1]. - COMEX gold futures opened at $3,342.9 and reached a low of $3,309.6, closing down by 0.83% [2]. - Other precious metals also saw declines, with platinum down over 2% at $1,357.9 per ounce and palladium down 1.72% at $1,112.1 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.71% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 1.17% [3][4]. - The performance of constituent stocks within these ETFs varied, with some stocks like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long rising, while others like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold fell [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to exhibit volatility, particularly in light of the upcoming changes to U.S. tariff policies, which may influence market risk sentiment [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reporting a total of 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of the end of June [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - After 18 months of intense price increases, gold price volatility is expected to ease in the coming quarters, although supportive factors such as ETF inflows, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar will continue to favor upward movement in gold prices until 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Price Outlook** - There is an 80% probability that gold prices will remain stable or increase over the next 6-9 months, with a bullish scenario suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce [1] - **Supportive Factors** - The weakening dollar and potential dovish policies from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may attract more investment into gold from the record $7 trillion in money market mutual funds [1]