研 究 院 货 金 融 多重利好，铜价再创历史新高 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 融 研 究 院 议息会议将至，市场继续提高美联储降息预期。美国巨量买盘导致智利提高美国铜现货升水，中国冶炼行业酝酿联 合减产，同时芝商所火灾也扩大了市场波动，周五伦铜大涨创历史新高。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但 房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货 铜上涨。 弘 业 期 货 金 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报89280，现货报89260，沪铜高位震荡，现货较期货贴水-20点。今日现货基差升水上升 至110点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周大幅升水45美元，外盘现货需求明显好转。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高， 伦铜库存上升，沪铜库存小幅下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价下降至30美元的新低，上涨后国 内现货需求不足。铜价伦沪比下降至7.96，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1109点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史 ...

11月27日夜间，外盘LME铜价格再度创下历史新高11210.5美元/吨，沪铜亦冲破88000元/吨一线，接近 前高。12月1日开盘后，沪铜继续冲高，盘中涨幅超过2%，并创下新高89650元/吨。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】116号 此外，行业人士称，智利国有铜业公司Codelco向美国客户提供的铜溢价创历史新高，每吨较伦敦金属 交易所（LME）溢价500美元以上，该溢价在基准LME铜价基础上追加支付，同时涵盖运输费、税费等 成本。COMEX铜价也站上5美元/磅一线，地区间价差以及美国对于铜的囤货需求之下，全球铜库存仍 在向美国转移。 数据显示，11月28日，COMEX铜库存增至418727短吨。与此同时，截至11月27日，LME铜库存约15.9 万吨，处于历史较低区间，且远低于COMEX铜库存。铜库存在地区间分布不平衡的情况短期内难以扭 转，将成为铜价进一步走高的推动力。 免责声明：本资讯所载内容和观点仅反映分析师发出此资讯时的判断，公司可随时发出其他与本资讯不 一致或者不同结论的其他报告。资讯中数据来源请见原文研报，本资讯内容和观点仅供交易者参考，交 易者应自行作出投资决策并独立承担投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the tightness in copper mines is being transmitted to electrolytic copper, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices reaching new highs [1] - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper mine production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating a commitment to address the supply shortage [2] - CSPT members cover approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422,000 tons as of October 2025 [3] Group 2 - The reduction in copper mine production is seen as an inevitable result of the tight supply expected in 2025/2026, with several mines already adjusting their production forecasts downward due to various disruptions [4] - The profitability of smelting companies is increasingly reliant on by-products like sulfuric acid, as the treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have been declining, with spot prices reaching historical lows [5] - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, but regional imbalances may exacerbate tightness in electrolytic copper outside the U.S., particularly due to expectations of U.S. tariffs [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus among CSPT member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 indicates a significant tightening in copper supply, which is expected to drive copper prices to new highs [4][1]. - The disruptions in copper mining in 2025, including production guidance reductions from major mines, are likely to exacerbate the supply constraints [2]. - The current low processing fees (TC) for copper smelting, coupled with reliance on by-product revenues, poses profitability challenges for smelting companies [3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity - CSPT members account for approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of over 10 million tons per year [1]. Mining Disruptions - Significant production guidance reductions from various mines in 2025, totaling a decrease of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively, represent about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper mine production [2][19]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC) for copper smelting has reached historical lows, with spot prices at -43 USD/ton and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to depend on by-product revenues for profitability [3][11]. Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, with LME copper at 159,000 tons and COMEX at 419,000 tons, but the distribution is uneven, leading to potential tightness outside the U.S. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to monitor Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4].

今日早盘，A股市场震荡走强，有色金属板块大幅领涨，消费电子板块表现活跃，中兴通讯涨停。截至午间休市，上证指数站上3900点 关口，报3904.90点，涨0.42%；深证成指、创业板指分别上涨0.95%和0.90%。 消息面上，据"中兴通讯"微信号，目前，搭载豆包手机助手技术预览版的工程样机努比亚M153少量发售，供开发者和感兴趣的朋友体验 豆包手机助手。 据介绍，豆包手机助手是豆包和手机厂商在操作系统层面合作的手机AI助手。基于豆包大模型的能力和手机厂商的授权，豆包手机助手 能够为用户带来更方便的交互和更丰富的体验。豆包表示，没有开发手机的计划，目前正在和多家手机厂商推进手机助手的合作落地计 划。 有色金属板块多股涨停 A股主要股指早盘表现 消费电子板块崛起 中兴通讯涨停 早盘，消费电子板块表现活跃。截至午盘，中兴通讯涨停，半日放量成交139.9亿元，公司市值扩大至2215亿元。其他消费电子概念股方 面，北交所股票豪声电子收获30%幅度涨停，昀冢科技、贝隆精密等收获20%幅度涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅器 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920701 | 豪声电子 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global copper prices have reached a historical high, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark three-month copper rising to $11,294.5 per ton, driven primarily by supply shortages [1]. Group 1: Supply Factors - Major copper-producing countries, such as Chile, have underperformed in production this year, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper output and low levels of imports for intermediate products like scrap copper and anode copper [1]. - The overall copper inventory in both domestic and international exchanges is on a downward trend, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting low copper stock levels that continue to decrease [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut in December is influencing market sentiment, although the real estate sector is experiencing a downturn [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has emphasized strict control over smelting capacity, advocating for a 10% reduction in copper concentrate smelting capacity to balance supply and demand [2]. - Despite the fourth quarter showing lower-than-expected consumption and an increase in COMEX copper inventory, the LME inventory remains under pressure, indicating a complex market dynamic [2].

Core Insights - LME copper prices have reached record highs due to supply concerns, leading to a strong performance in A-share copper-related stocks [1] - A well-known "copper bull" has reiterated a bullish outlook for copper prices, warning that recent shipments of metals to the U.S. may deplete inventories in other regions, suggesting further price increases [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank have noted that the narrative around tightening copper supply is becoming more prevalent, although they emphasize the lack of a decisive catalyst for a significant price breakout [1] Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper (600362) saw a price increase of 9.99%, with a total market capitalization of 142.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 107.59% [2] - Silver Industry (601212) rose by 9.96%, with a market cap of 40.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 94.60% [2] - Yunnan Copper (000878) increased by 7.82%, with a market cap of 35.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 50.03% [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) rose by 7.25%, with a market cap of 73.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 76.55% [2] - Electric Alloy (300697) increased by 6.93%, with a market cap of 7.281 billion and a year-to-date increase of 75.60% [2] - Other notable performers include Shengtu Mining (5.27%), Zhongya (3.85%), and Pengxin Resources (3.38%) [2]

有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、华友钴业(603799)、中国铝业(601600)、赣锋锂业 (002460)、中金黄金(600489)、山东黄金(600547)、天齐锂业(002466)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比52.34%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；接I：022886)。 截至2025年12月1日 09:48，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨4.20%，成分股白银有色(601212)上 涨9.96%，江西铜业(600362)上涨9.72%，兴业银锡(000426)上涨9.53%，云南铜业(000878)，铜陵有色 (000630)等个股跟涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in copper-related stocks in the Hong Kong market, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Jiangxi Copper and China Gold International [1][2]. - Jiangxi Copper's shares rose by 8.02%, reaching a price of 33.140, with a total market capitalization of 114.755 billion and a year-to-date increase of 194.36% [2]. - China Gold International and China Nonferrous Mining also saw significant gains, with increases of 6.86% and 6.22% respectively, reflecting strong market interest in copper stocks [2]. Group 2 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a historical high, driven by bullish predictions from prominent market analysts who warn that recent shipments of metals to the U.S. may deplete global inventories, suggesting further price increases [2]. - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that the narrative around tightening copper supply is becoming more prevalent, although they indicated that a decisive catalyst for a significant price surge is still lacking [3]. - The report emphasizes that copper prices are highly sensitive to incremental bullish signals, such as improvements in downstream demand and moderate supply disruptions from small to medium-sized mines or smelters, suggesting potential for continued upward movement in prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper into the U.S. may deplete global inventories in other regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen traders increase copper shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs, aiming to capitalize on the significant premium of COMEX copper [1]. - The volatility in copper prices this year was triggered by President Trump's initial tariff threats, leading to a surge in copper imports and subsequent price spikes [1][2]. - Bintas indicates that the revival of profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is exacerbating supply shortages in other regions, suggesting that copper prices will soon rise further [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Bintas notes that the LME copper price is nearing record highs and is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply [2]. - Despite a slowdown in U.S. copper imports following Trump's tariff decisions, Mercuria anticipates a rebound in imports in the coming months, potentially matching record levels from the second quarter of this year [2]. - The ongoing awareness of the potential for increased metal flows into the U.S. is leading to concerns about supply shortages in other markets, even amid weak demand [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - Bintas acknowledges that his bullish forecast is driven by U.S. policy, highlighting how Trump's economic policies have disrupted traditional supply-demand dynamics in the metal market [3]. - Reports indicate that some traders are willing to pay premiums significantly above LME prices for Chilean copper, reflecting the heightened demand and pricing pressures [3].