2025年，这些影响将主要体现在投资领域，而出口方面则会相对较少，随着美 国加大将制造业和生产活动"回流"国内的力度，东南亚地区吸引外资将面临日 益激烈的竞争。外国直接投资可能会越来越多地从东南亚转向其他地区，使该 地区争夺剩余资金的竞争加剧。认为马来西亚7.5%的GDP来自对美出口，而总 出口额占经济总量超过75%，使马来西亚在面对高达25%的美国关税时处于不 利地位，马来西亚电气设备行业等关键出口产业极易受到冲击。预计马来西亚 2025年的GDP增长可能将跌破4%，而若关税持续存在，2026年经济增速甚至 可能进一步大幅下降。 关于美国方面，亨德森表示，作为全球最大的经济体，美国自身也难以避免影 响。高关税将推高生产成本、削弱国内需求，进而抑制GDP增长。此外，高关 税还可能限制美联储在短期内降息的能力，导致宏观政策环境更为复杂和严 峻。 （原标题：美国关税政策可能影响东盟五国GDP增长） 《越通社》7月18日转载《马来西亚国家新闻社》（Bernama）报道，东南 亚地区经济学家塔玛拉·马斯特·亨德森博士（Tamara Mast Henderson）在马来 西亚CIMB证券公司7月17日发布的报告中指出， ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing major global economies [1] - The average wage income for residents reached 12,628 yuan, an increase of 5.7% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating stable price levels [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping by 3.60% [5] - Major cities, including first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, are also seeing significant price declines [5] - There is a growing demand for the cancellation of pre-sale housing, with a shift towards selling completed properties expected in the second half of 2025 [5][7] Automotive Industry - A price war has emerged in the automotive sector, with brands like Honda and Chevrolet reducing prices by over 60,000 yuan on certain models [9] - Domestic brands such as Geely and BYD are also participating in price reductions, with some models seeing price drops from 220,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan [9] - Factors contributing to the price decline include market oversupply due to the influx of electric vehicles and increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive market [9] Consumer Behavior and Economic Conditions - The overall trend indicates a stable yet declining price environment, suggesting that money is becoming more valuable [10] - However, this also points to a deflationary cycle, leading to decreased consumer demand and challenges for businesses in terms of cash flow and hiring [10]

Group 1 - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, surpassing the forecast of 4.2% [1]

Core Insights - Henan Province's GDP for the first half of the year reached 31,683.80 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Economic Breakdown - The primary industry added value was 2,252.14 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.7% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 12,189.39 billion yuan, showing a growth of 6.0% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 17,242.27 billion yuan, also growing by 6.0% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in June 2025 was mixed. Although the Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, the demand declined significantly in June, with negative month - on - month growth in social retail and fixed - asset investment. Constraints on China's economic rebound are accumulating, including declining resident income, deteriorating real estate, and deepening deflation. For the stock market, due to the negative beta truncation effect of the national team's entry into the market, funds continue to drive the stock index up. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 June Economic Data Analysis - **GDP situation**: The real GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The Q2 GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter growth, better than last year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 was only 3.94%, a 0.65% decline from Q1. Low prices are still eroding the real growth rate [8] - **Supply - demand situation**: On the supply side, the industrial added value and service production index in June maintained a growth rate of about 6%. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment in June were 4.8% and - 0.1% respectively, lower than market expectations and showing a decline from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rates were negative, at a poor level compared to historical data. Consumption growth highly depends on subsidies, and the fiscal impulse from the early issuance of national debt is fading [12] - **Real estate situation**: In June, the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. The new construction area and sales area and amount all showed negative growth, and housing prices were accelerating their decline. The total capital source of real estate enterprises was still in a low - level shock. The real estate market has been deteriorating since Q2, and policies are needed to stop the decline [20] - **Resident income situation**: In Q2, the growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents was 5.08%, a 0.47% decline from Q1. Except for the increase in transfer net income, other income sources such as wage income and business net income declined. The pressure on domestic consumption will increase in the second half of the year [27] - **Industrial capacity utilization situation**: The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74%, a 0.1% decline from Q1. The mining and public utility industries were the main drags, while the manufacturing industry increased slightly. Some industries such as electronic information manufacturing and electrical equipment manufacturing saw an increase in capacity utilization, which may be related to export and investment [31] 3.2 Investment Suggestions - Although theoretically a GDP growth rate of about 4.7% in the second half of the year can achieve the full - year target, there are accumulating unfavorable factors for the economic rebound. It is necessary to increase the subsidy for consumer goods replacement and the efforts to stabilize the real estate market. For the stock market, unless there is a major change in US tariffs on China or a rapid decline in China's economic growth in Q3, the market may still ignore the fundamentals and remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate each stock index to cope with the rapidly rotating market [2][35]

Economic Overview - The domestic GDP for the first half of the year reached 660,536 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 239,050 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 390,314 billion yuan, increasing by 5.5% [1] Market Performance - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index (930939) increased by 0.17%, with notable stock performances including LIZHU Group (000513) up by 6.71% and KEDALI (002850) up by 6.43% [1] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) is showing positive momentum, currently priced at 1 yuan [1] Policy Insights - Everbright Securities noted that domestic policies have shifted towards a focus on fundamentals and liquidity since September of last year, maintaining a positive stance despite some restraint [1] - The flexibility and foresight of policy measures are expected to stabilize market expectations and promote healthy capital market development [1] Investment Opportunities - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the A-share market is accumulating positive factors, with the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index's valuation at a historical low, with a latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.9 times, below 88.94% of the past three years [2] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the CSI 500 Index, providing diverse investment options [2] Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 20.42% of the index, including Dongwu Securities (601555) and Kaiying Network (002517) [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - China's GDP maintained high growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, reaching 6.60536 trillion yuan. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, and Q2 by 5.2%. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In June 2025, the decline in commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow year-on-year, while prices decreased month-on-month. In first-tier cities, new and second-hand residential sales prices dropped by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively month-on-month [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Conditions Upstream - Black commodities: Prices of rebar and iron ore rose slightly [2] - Chemicals: PTA prices declined [2] Midstream - Chemicals: The operating rates of polyester and PX stabilized, and the urea operating rate increased [3] Downstream - Real estate: Sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities stabilized at the bottom [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Group 3: Industry Credit Spreads - The report provides credit spread data for multiple industries as of July 2, 2025, including agriculture, mining, chemicals, and others, showing the spreads' trends over different time periods [48] Group 4: Key Industry Price Indicators - The report tracks price indicators of multiple industries as of July 15, 2025, including agriculture, energy, chemicals, and real estate, presenting the current prices, year-on-year changes, and trends over the past 5 days [49]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505.00 points, down by 0.42%[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up by 0.56%[2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up by 1.73%[2] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with a turnover of 16,120.63 million yuan[5] Economic Data - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a second-quarter growth of 5.2%[3] - The first quarter GDP growth was recorded at 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1%[3] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 million yuan, growing by 3.7%[3] - The secondary industry added value was 239,050 million yuan, growing by 5.3%[3] - The tertiary industry added value was 390,314 million yuan, growing by 5.5%[3] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index declined, with telecommunications, computers, and electronics leading the gains[2] - Coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and public utilities sectors experienced the largest declines[2]

Key Insights - The report highlights that the US core CPI has been below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating potential shifts in inflation trends [3] - The global smartphone market experienced a year-on-year decline of 1% in Q2 2025, suggesting challenges in consumer demand [3] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of this year, reflecting a stable economic environment [3] - The eleventh batch of national drug procurement has been initiated, including 55 varieties, which may impact the pharmaceutical industry [3] - China’s biopharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant activity, with a $500 million acquisition of an innovative drug company [3] - Nvidia is set to resume sales of its H20 product in China, indicating a recovery in the tech supply chain [3] - The CEO of Yushutech reported a noticeable increase in robot shipments this year, highlighting growth in the robotics sector [3] - The integration of thousands of vehicles from Luobo Kuaipao into Uber's global mobility network signifies expansion in the ride-hailing market [3] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1783.00, up 7.22% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 20677.80, with a slight increase of 0.18% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44023.29, down 0.98% [4] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6243.76, decreasing by 0.40% [4] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was $68.86, down 0.51% [4] - The London gold price was $3323.14, down 0.59% [4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.17, up 0.06% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24590.12, up 1.60% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505.00, down 0.42% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a decrease in the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold market. However, the long - term outlook for gold remains positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips when it reaches an important support level [8][9]. - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is expected to maintain a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is recommended [12]. - The glass market is mainly driven by news and sentiment. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the price has support below after a high - level decline today, so a bullish view is taken [14][15]. - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports has increased. The inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. With the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - selling strategy with a light position is recommended [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the second quarter. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Technical Analysis of Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market. But the long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips at important support levels [8][9]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it maintains a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is appropriate [12]. 3.4 Technical Analysis of Glass - The fundamentals of the glass market have not changed significantly, and it is mainly driven by news and sentiment. After a high - level decline today, there is support below, so a bullish view is recommended [14][15]. 3.5 Technical Analysis of Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons from the previous period. East China has seen inventory accumulation, while South China has experienced destocking. With continuous inventory accumulation, a short - selling strategy with a light position is suggested [18].