Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July 2025 meeting, with some members opposing and supporting a 25BP rate cut [8]. - Powell's stance is hawkish, and he has no pre - set expectations for the September policy decision, which dampens market rate - cut expectations [8]. - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is low. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for tariff transmission results [9]. - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term [9]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space, and the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged. Members Bowman and Waller voted against and supported a 25BP rate cut this month [8]. Powell's Stance - Powell adheres to data - dependence and has no policy expectations for September, which hits market rate - cut expectations [8]. - In terms of inflation, Powell aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into continuous inflation, hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy, and believes that tariff transmission to prices may be slower than expected [8][10]. - Regarding employment, Powell thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downward risks [5][10]. - On economic growth, Powell admits that the overall economic growth has slowed down, and large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making some signals difficult to interpret. He also believes that although consumer growth has slowed down, consumers' credit conditions are good [5][10]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered the expectation of a September rate cut. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to rise, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose by 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared with before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [9]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is not high. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for longer - term tariff transmission results [9]. Outlook for US Treasury Yields - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term, and the downward revision of the rate - cut expectation provides some allocation opportunities [9]. Outlook for US Dollar Index - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has generally risen and has now rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space. Without a substantial weakening signal in the US labor market and continuous rate cuts by the Fed, the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating for this specific topic in the given content. Core Viewpoints - At the July 2025 meeting, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%, with dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller who supported a 25BP rate cut. Powell's hawkish stance dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [2]. - The market adjusted its September rate - cut expectations after the Fed's press conference, with short - term interest rates rising significantly, the US dollar continuing to strengthen, and the US stock market under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. - Regarding US Treasury yields, if inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration [2]. - For the US dollar index, short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5%. Bowman and Waller voted against, supporting a 25BP rate cut this month [2]. Powell's Stance - Powell's stance was hawkish, not pre - setting expectations for the September policy decision. He adheres to data - dependence. In terms of inflation, he aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into persistent inflation and hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy. He believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is in the early stage and the transfer to consumers may be slower than expected [2]. - Regarding employment, he thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downside risks. In terms of economic growth, he admits the overall economic growth has slowed, and the large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making it difficult to interpret some signals. He also believes consumers' credit conditions are good despite the slowdown in consumption growth [2]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered its September rate - cut expectations. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to strengthen, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. US Treasury Yields Outlook - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration, and the downward revision of rate - cut expectations provides some allocation opportunities [2]. US Dollar Index Outlook - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has risen. Short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between hawkish and dovish views within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, leading to a weak performance in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating between 3300 and 3350 [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence - The Federal Reserve's July meeting maintained interest rates, but notable internal dissent emerged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while Powell emphasized no decisions had been made regarding September rates [3]. - The core disagreement stems from differing economic outlooks: hawks are concerned about inflation persistence due to tariffs, while doves focus on marginal deterioration in the job market [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 68% in June to 45%, although the market still anticipates at least one cut this year [4]. - Fluctuations in market expectations have caused gold to be influenced by both "policy expectation trading" and "actual data validation," leading to significant price movements [4]. Group 3: Commodity Market Interactions - A stronger dollar and increased risk appetite have impacted other commodity prices, with oil prices rising over 3% and drawing funds away from precious metals [6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price has shown a downward trend, breaking below the previous support level of 3345, with a focus on the 3250 support level [8]. - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with moving averages indicating downward momentum and Bollinger Bands showing a downward trend [8].

7 月 FOMC：降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨，美联储公布 7 月议息结果，联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾，本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息，对利率决议投反对票，是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来，鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温，两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击，且就业市场有走弱风险，建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多，历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近（加息或降 息），因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号，关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温，关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限，且经济稳定降温的格局，二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%，但主要是关税抢进口停止后，净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致，2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...

新华财经上海7月31日电（葛佳明）美联储当地时间7月30日结束货币政策例会后如期维持利率不变。值得注意的是，两位美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒 （Christopher Waller）和米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）均投下反对票，二人主张应在此次会议上降息25个基点。这是1993年以来美联储首次出现两位理 事反对货币政策决议的情况，凸显美联储内部对于降息存在较大分歧。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在货币政策例会后结束的记者会上的表态相对"鹰派"，并未对9月是否降息给出明确指引，称需要更多数据来确认关税政策对美国通 胀的传导效应，市场对美联储今年内降息的预期明显下调。那么美联储究竟何时重启降息周期？短期大幅反弹的美元还有上行空间吗？ 但中金公司研究部宏观分析师肖捷文则持不同看法。肖捷文认为，关税带来的通胀风险尚未解除，且美国劳动力市场依然稳固，因此美联储尚不具备降息的 条件。 市场对美联储后续降息路径分歧加剧 美联储7月议息会议仍然延续此前"观望"的基调，静待更多经济数据"出炉"进行判断，未来核心变量基本取决于美联储判断关税对通胀的冲击是否为"一次性 的"短期影响以及美国就业市场状况。 财通证券首席经济学家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential rebound of gold prices following a significant drop on July 31, influenced by strong ADP data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The US dollar index has risen for five consecutive days, approaching the 100 mark, suggesting a high risk for short positions as negative news has already been priced in [1]. - Gold prices are currently supported by the weekly MA20 moving average and daily support levels around the 3270-3280 range, indicating a potential stabilization [1]. - If gold prices can effectively break through the resistance zone of 3320-3330, there is potential for upward movement towards the 3360 level; otherwise, prices may remain within the 3270-3320 range [1]. Group 2: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested to buy gold in the range of 3285-3280, with a stop loss at 3373 and a target price of 3315 [3].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1494，较上一交易日下调53个基点。 美元指数强势拉升，逼近100关口，截至9时30分，报99.7778。 兴业研究认为，支持人民币升值的因素主要包括：境内充裕的美元流动性、股汇正向联动；影响人民币 贬值的因素包括：美元指数反弹，但由于人民币相对于美元指数偏低估，该影响或被削弱，表现为面对 美元升值呈现偏小的贬值弹性，此外密切关注风险偏好的变化。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）7月31日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌77 个基点，报7.1900，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1823。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.19879。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]

来源：智昇财论 黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不 变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上涨约1%， 达到5月29日以来最高点99.99，进一步加剧了黄金的压力。周四（7月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3281.76美元/盎司附近， 投资者还将关注国际贸易局势和美国6月份PCE等数据，周五还将公布非农就业报告。 美联储"鹰爪"撕裂黄金多头 美联储在7月30日的会议中以9:2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，这是连续第五次维持利率稳定。然而，会议结 果中两位理事的反对票成为市场焦点。特朗普任命的金融监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒明确表示支持降息25个基点，这不仅是30多年来反对票最多 的一次，也反映出美联储内部对政策路径的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上进一步浇灭了市场对9月降息的期待。他明确表示，美 联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定，并强调将根据未来经济数据谨慎行事。鲍 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve continues to pause interest rate cuts, indicating a shift from "economic activity continues to expand steadily" to "economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year" [1] - Powell's hawkish stance suggests that asserting a rate cut in September is premature, with inflation outlook showing mixed signals [1] - Market's expectation for rate cuts has retracted by 10 basis points, with the CME FedWatch indicating a drop from 45 basis points to 35 basis points for the year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Labor market indicators such as turnover rates, job vacancies, and unemployment rates are close to levels from a year ago, indicating no significant weakness [1] - Employment creation and labor supply are slowing, presenting downside risks to the labor market [1] - The market is now leaning towards a single rate cut for the year, with expectations for a potential shift towards rate cut anticipation in August if tariff impacts on inflation remain manageable [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose approximately 0.5%, nearing 100, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 4.34% to around 4.38% [1] - The market's confidence in a rate cut in October has decreased to about 80% following the meeting [1] - The overall economic data rebound and retraction of rate cut expectations are expected to support the dollar, although future agreements remain uncertain [2]