智通财经7月4日电，欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫表示，通胀预期已得到良好锚定。 ...

亚洲早盘金价高位小幅震荡，受美国6月非农就业数据意外强劲的影响，金价在周四（7月3日）下跌近 1%，现货黄金收报3325.87美元/盎司。强劲的就业数据不仅推高了美元和美债收益率，还显著削弱了市 场对美联储提前降息的预期，令黄金的吸引力大幅下降。与此同时，美国国会通过了特朗普政府的大规 模减税和支出议案（"大而美"法案），进一步为经济注入了复杂变量。周五（7月4日）恰逢美国独立日 假期，金价在亚市早盘窄幅震荡，目前交投于3330美元附近。强劲就业数据打压美联储降息预期美国劳 工统计局最新公布的6月非农就业报告显示，美国新增就业岗位14.7万个，远超市场预期的11万个，显 示出劳动力市场的强劲动能。 尽管失业率从4.2%小幅下降至4.1%，但这份亮眼的数据背后也隐藏着一些隐忧。报告指出，近一半的 就业增长来自政府部门，而私营部门的岗位增幅仅为7.4万个，创下2024年10月以来最小增幅。此外， 平均每周工作时间从34.3小时缩短至34.2小时，工资增长放缓，平均时薪环比仅上涨0.2%，同比涨幅从 3.8%降至3.7%。这些细节表明，尽管总体就业数据强劲，但私营部门的疲软和劳动力市场的潜在放缓 可能为未来的经济走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in gold prices and a pull - back in silver prices after a rise. The tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, while silver prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the global situation has become extremely volatile. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall back, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Silver prices are more affected by tariff concerns and may see an enlarged increase [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation and causing gold prices to fall. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.71% to $3336.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Silver prices rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.85% to $37.04 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of gold futures increased by 3 kilograms to 18456 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 20, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 2133 kilograms to 1340792 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - All - day: US financial markets are closed. - 17:00: Eurozone May PPI. - 20:15: Speech by Villeroy, member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Bank of France. - 23:00: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 01:30: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 04:00: US President Trump will hold a signing and celebration event for the "Great Beautiful Tax Bill" at the White House. - Sunday: Vietnam's Q2 GDP, OPEC + meeting to discuss August oil production policy, and the opening of the 2025 BRICS Summit in Brazil. - 14:00: Germany's May factory orders. - 15:30: European Central Bank President Lagarde meets with German Chancellor Merz. - 16:00: Speech by Elderson, member of the European Central Bank Executive Board [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - gold premium has converged to 3.5 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - silver premium has converged to about 420 yuan per kilogram [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1456 to 200503, the short position decreased by 29 to 65235, and the net position decreased by 1427 to 135268 [27]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 29036 to 411699, the short position increased by 42443 to 338958, and the net position decreased by 13407 to 72741 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is focusing on the next round of precious metal trends, with expectations that both gold and silver prices will continue to rise due to structural economic risks and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,300 per ounce, while silver is fluctuating above $36, indicating potential for further gains [1] - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott highlights increased attention on silver due to its recovering industrial demand and a declining gold-silver ratio, suggesting silver has room for a rebound [3] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 in April to below 92, indicating silver's potential for price recovery [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a fundamental macro backdrop supporting gold and silver prices, with federal debt surpassing $37 trillion and a new budget proposal expected to add $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade [4] - Concerns over the long-term stability of the dollar are rising as the U.S. government continues to run large deficits relative to GDP, prompting a shift of capital from equities to hard assets like gold and silver [4] - Key drivers for rising gold prices include dollar depreciation, rising inflation expectations, and global liquidity excess [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the divergence between wage growth and inflation trends has led to a reassessment of "stagflation" risks [5] - Gold is viewed as a natural hedge against inflation, with its price support becoming more solid amid ongoing inflation expectations [5] - Silver, with over 60% of its demand coming from industrial sectors, is expected to benefit from the recovery in industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on Industrial Metals - The recent "Big and Beautiful" legislation in the U.S. significantly increases fiscal support for clean energy, manufacturing, and semiconductors, which will enhance demand for industrial metals like silver, copper, and platinum [6] - Silver's critical role in the photovoltaic industry is gaining market attention due to this legislative push [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize above $3,300 per ounce while silver could experience a rebound, with gold maintaining its strategic position in investment portfolios and silver serving as a tactical investment tool [8] - Key variables to monitor include Federal Reserve policy direction, U.S. inflation and employment data, global fiscal conditions, geopolitical risks, and changes in consumption and industrial cycles [8] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - The market is entering a slow bull phase driven by structural capital flows, with gold being the preferred choice due to its reserve asset attributes, while silver's dual financial and industrial characteristics present greater elasticity [9] - In the context of rising fiscal deficits, inflation risks, and complex economic data trends, both gold and silver are becoming critical options for investor asset allocation, with silver potentially emerging as a "dark horse" in the next precious metal rally [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should more clearly commit to maintaining stable inflation expectations within its policy framework [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of clear communication from the Federal Reserve regarding its inflation targets [1] - It suggests that a more defined commitment could enhance market confidence and economic stability [1] - The call for clarity in policy aims to prevent uncertainty that could arise from ambiguous inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may rise back to levels seen on April 2 if trade negotiations do not progress [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The Treasury Secretary cautions U.S. trading partners against prolonging trade talks, emphasizing the need for progress [1] - A meeting with EU negotiators is scheduled, but specific outcomes remain uncertain [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Market Confidence - The Treasury Secretary expresses confidence in strong domestic and international demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The debt management process is described as orderly, indicating a stable approach to handling U.S. debt [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Comments suggest that the two-year Treasury yield indicates that overnight rates are too high, with expectations for inflation to decline [1] - Criticism is directed at the Federal Reserve, suggesting that its judgment appears somewhat off [1] - The Treasury Secretary advocates for the Federal Reserve to control spending and adjust budget sizes appropriately [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：降息有助于支撑通胀预期，避免金融状况出现不必要的紧缩。 ...

美国财长贝森特：通胀预期应该会下降。 控制开支对美联储是有益的。 希望明年能够填补两名联邦储备委员会的空缺职位。 预计经济增长将超过3%。 拒绝就有关鲍威尔的问题做出具体回应。 美联储主席有很多强有力的候选人。 ...

美国财长贝森特表示，通胀预期应该会下降，美联储委员会的判断"似乎有点偏差"。 ...

美国财长贝森特：通胀预期应当开始下降。 ...