Investment Outlook - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle supports the global liquidity environment, while domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, creating a favorable liquidity foundation for the A-share market, which is likely to continue a slow bull market trend [1][53] - Investment themes can focus on both technology and dividend sectors, with particular attention on domestic chip manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and humanoid robots in the technology sector, and insurance, banking, and other high-dividend sectors in the dividend space [1][53] Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by the service sector [2][13] - The core CPI has expanded for six consecutive months, indicating a gradual accumulation of internal consumption momentum, while industrial price transmission remains under pressure [2][14] - The macro policy for 2026 is expected to maintain coherence and targeted measures, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on major technology projects and advanced manufacturing upgrades [2][22] Sector-Specific Insights Technology Sector - The development of new productive forces is a key policy direction for the domestic economy, with liquidity easing expected to benefit innovative companies, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [3][23] - The domestic AI chip market has seen significant growth, with sales increasing from $6 billion to $16 billion, and market share rising from 29% to 42%, reflecting a 112% growth rate [27] Non-Banking Financial Sector - Brokerage firms are expected to benefit from the slow bull market, with a significant increase in trading activity and new account openings, indicating a positive outlook for the brokerage business [45] - The insurance sector is poised for growth due to new policies aimed at enhancing health insurance offerings and improving asset returns [46] Metals and Commodities - The copper market is expected to see continued upward price trends due to tight supply-demand dynamics, driven by increased demand from AI infrastructure and electric vehicles [4][51] - The global demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel remains strong, supported by battery and energy storage needs, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for energy metals [4][52] Power Equipment - The explosion in AI computing demand is driving significant changes in energy infrastructure, with data centers requiring advanced power solutions and energy management systems [39][40] - The new energy storage market is transitioning from a supplementary option to a market player, with significant growth expected in the coming years [44] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing accelerated development, supported by national policies aimed at fostering innovation and application in various industries [36][38]

Macro Environment - Economic data for November shows weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI has turned positive year-on-year, and the decline in PPI has narrowed, indicating signs of mild recovery in prices. The export structure has improved, with high-tech product exports showing strong resilience [6][10][12] - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and supporting "stable growth" through counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Various government departments have introduced policies to stimulate domestic demand and private investment [6][11][67] Market and Industry Performance Bond Market Review - In November, the bond futures market faced pressure, with the ten-year main contract falling by 0.67% and the thirty-year bond dropping by 1.84%. This decline was influenced by three factors: cooling expectations for rate cuts, credit concerns stemming from the Vanke bond incident, and a weakening of the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The outlook for December suggests a stabilization in the ten-year bond futures, transitioning into a slight oscillation pattern [6][45][67] Stock Market Review - The equity market in November continued to favor value over growth, with the performance of various sectors showing mixed results. The consumption sector rose by 1.02%, while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors saw declines of 3.5% and 3.41%, respectively. The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach among investors [6][51][57] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in November included comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). Conversely, the worst performers were pharmaceutical biology (-3.62%), non-bank financials (-3.81%), and electronics (-5.04%) [57][64] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - Looking ahead to December, the easing of US-China trade relations and key policy meetings are expected to influence market risk appetite. A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and utilities, while also considering the improved valuation attractiveness of TMT and AI sectors following November's adjustments [6][67]

Core Viewpoint The news conference held by the Shaanxi Provincial Government highlighted the achievements in social welfare and construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on employment stability, social security reforms, talent development, and healthcare improvements. Employment and Social Security - The employment situation in Shaanxi has remained stable, with over 2.14 million new urban jobs created during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supported by various employment policies and training programs [5][6]. - The social security system has been enhanced, with the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reaching 32 million, 5.66 million, and 7.27 million respectively, showing significant increases from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Talent Development - The province has focused on aligning talent development with key industrial needs, resulting in over 2.6 million professional technical personnel and attracting more than 6,000 postdoctoral talents for research and innovation [7][8]. - A comprehensive talent support system has been established, including a new skill level system and extensive training programs, contributing to over 6.1 million skilled workers in the region [8]. Healthcare Improvements - Shaanxi has strengthened its public health system, effectively managing multiple COVID-19 outbreaks and reducing the incidence of tuberculosis from 47.26 per 100,000 in 2020 to 36.72 per 100,000 [14][15]. - The province has improved healthcare access and quality, with 434 hospitals implementing streamlined services, and the establishment of regional medical centers to enhance healthcare delivery [15][16]. Education Development - The education system has made significant strides, with 8 universities included in national "Double First-Class" initiatives and over 600 new educational institutions built or renovated [9][10]. - The province has implemented various educational reforms, including a focus on moral education and the integration of technology in teaching, resulting in improved student engagement and performance [10][11]. Social Welfare and Governance - Shaanxi has enhanced its social welfare programs, with an increase in the average urban and rural minimum living standards by 10.1% and 15.5% respectively, ensuring support for over 1.19 million urban low-income individuals [19][20]. - The province has optimized social governance, with initiatives to improve marriage registration services and reduce funeral costs, enhancing overall community welfare [21][22].

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [1][11][60] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [1][19] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [1][24][73] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology-driven innovation, which can highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [1][4][28] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][33][79] - The experience from Hong Kong shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to be close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [1][38][86] Group 3 - The past year and a half has seen significant changes in China's capital market due to shifts in policy, enterprise dynamics, and funding [2][9][23] - Enterprises have shown resilience and adaptability, enhancing competitiveness and innovation despite facing challenges from domestic real estate adjustments and external geopolitical pressures [13][14][65] - The trend of foreign investment returning to China is evident, as global investors seek diversified allocations beyond dollar assets [3][20][70] Group 4 - The real estate sector remains a significant influence on China's economy, with traditional industries still holding substantial sway [5][31][82] - The adjustment period for real estate in China is nearing its end, with significant declines in construction and sales volumes observed [85][86] - The need for a balanced approach in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on both technological advancement and consumer demand [25][51][100] Group 5 - Consumer spending is being targeted for enhancement through the establishment of a unified national market and increased fiscal investment in social welfare [42][92][95] - The low consumer rate and high savings rate in China are attributed to an inadequate social security system, which needs reform to boost consumer confidence [46][96][99] - The potential for a significant increase in domestic consumption is projected, with the goal of raising the share of consumption in GDP from approximately 40% to 45% by 2030 [49][50][99]

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to maintain balance under constrained supply and demand, but the labor market is still experiencing cyclical slowdowns[4] - Inflation is projected to slow down in its return to target levels due to core components, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[4] Group 2: Domestic Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in policy focus to solidify development foundations while addressing external uncertainties and weak internal demand[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital[5] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but will focus more on credit quality and liquidity management[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to stabilize around 5%, with investment leading the recovery while consumption requires systematic policy support[6] - External demand is expected to ensure stable growth in industrial value added, with a focus on high-tech industries and their ability to enhance competitiveness[6] - Inflation is expected to have a basis for recovery, particularly with the PPI growth potentially rebounding significantly[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic and policy changes pose significant threats to the economic outlook[7]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 盘面轮动，股指缩量 市场分析 关注"十五五"主线。宏观方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业 体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。对外方面，中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全 利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 共识。海外方面，特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收低，沪指跌0.42%收于3897.71点，创业板指跌0.69%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，石油石化、轻工制造、家用电器行业领涨，传媒、有色金属、计算机、医药生物行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.59%报23413.67点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，特朗普近期公开表示拟于2026 ...

新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德在致辞中表示，中新两国建交35年来，双边关系发展良好，不仅为两 国人民带来福祉，也为地区稳定和繁荣作出贡献。 中国社会科学院学部委员李向阳发表主旨演讲，指出"十五五"时期是中国基本实现社会主义现代化承上启下 的关键时期，全会明确提出要建设现代化产业体系、加快科技自立自强、推进高水平对外开放、推动绿色低碳发 展等战略任务，这不仅为中国自身发展锚定了方向，也为包括新加坡在内的世界各国带来了新的合作机遇。李向 阳研究员深入解读了"十五五"规划的核心内涵，简述了国际环境变化对中国经济政策的影响，分析了其中蕴含的 中新合作有关机遇。 与会的专家学者们还围绕深化双边经贸合作、共创区域经济繁荣等议题进行了深入研讨，为共谋中新未来合 作、促进地区繁荣稳定贡献智库力量。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德致辞。人民网记者 李晨摄 人民网新加坡12月2日电 （记者李晨）12月2日，由中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院和新加坡国立大学 东亚研究所联合主办的庆祝中新建交35周年"中新智库论坛"在新加坡举行，来自中新两国的数十位专家学者出席 论坛。 中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副院长刘历彬在致辞 ...

11月24日至25日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神中央宣讲团在香港特区为中央驻港机构和中资 企业代表、香港特区管治团队、社会各界人士进行了三场宣讲，并赴北部都会区调研及交流。 "有幸在现场聆听宣讲，收获满满，信心倍增。"作为长期从事国际海事及商事仲裁与争议解决业务 的执业律师，海问律师事务所香港办公室合伙人刘洋注意到，"十五五"规划建议提到"扩大高水平对外 开放"，他说，"香港在'一国两制'下可以用好普通法法律制度优势，在助力外资进入内地、内地企业走 出去过程中发挥独特作用。在国家扩大高水平对外开放进程中，香港法律及专业服务界将迎来新的时代 机遇。" "宣讲让我对全会精神有了更深入的理解，对香港如何把握发展机遇、在进一步融入和服务国家发 展大局中实现更大发展，有了更强的紧迫感、更大的信心和更明确的方向。"香港特区政府政务司司长 陈国基表示。 宣讲过程中，中央宣讲团成员，中央财经委员会办公室副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室副主 任祝卫东在回顾"十四五"时期国家和香港取得的发展成就时感慨道，"我们越来越深刻地感受到，国家 好、香港一定好，香港好、国家会更好"。这引起了在场人士强烈共鸣。 "'十五五'规划建议提 ...

Core Insights - The focus of national development is shifting from "quantitative recovery" post-pandemic to "qualitative leap" in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "high-level technological self-reliance" and aims for a dual goal of "effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [5][11] Group 1: Economic and Industrial Strategy - The national strategy is entering a new cycle centered on innovation efficiency, industrial structure, and regional collaboration, marking a shift from "policy following" to "system co-creation" [4] - The plan aims to build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, focusing on future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy [11] - The transition from "incremental manufacturing" to "efficiency manufacturing" indicates a shift in focus from merely increasing production to optimizing resource allocation [12] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Hard technology investment, including semiconductors and advanced materials, is positioned as a foundational logic for "systematic breakthroughs" [10] - Investment institutions are encouraged to engage in pre-financing and result transformation for national technology tasks, fostering capital co-creation [10] - The emphasis on "entrepreneurial investment + risk-sharing mechanisms" presents opportunities for investment firms to participate in national innovation initiatives [10] Group 3: Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" elevates green development from a secondary goal to a structural institution, influencing all industrial allocations [17] - The integration of green issues into financial and market mechanisms signifies a shift in perspective, making green development a capital issue [17] - Sustainable investment opportunities in green infrastructure and carbon asset management are expected to grow [20] Group 4: Consumer and Market Dynamics - The plan positions consumption upgrade as a core driver of economic structural transformation, moving from recovery to quality enhancement [22] - The "silver economy" is recognized as a significant industrial opportunity, transforming aging issues into growth engines [22][25] - Investment opportunities in healthcare, elder care, and technology-assisted living are anticipated to rise due to demographic shifts [25] Group 5: Regional Development - The focus of regional policy is shifting from "development gradient" to "structural coordination," promoting a unified market and efficient resource allocation [27] - Investment institutions are encouraged to collaborate with local guiding funds to strengthen project foundations and facilitate new industry development in less developed regions [30] Group 6: Financial Market Reforms - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes structural improvements in capital markets, transitioning from a focus on financing to a comprehensive investment-funding-exit cycle [32] - Direct investment institutions are identified as key players in building a strong financial nation, with multiple exit pathways being developed [35] - The plan aims to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting direct financing methods [31] Strategic Summary - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new engines for China's economic growth, including technological innovation and green transformation, while establishing a more inclusive capital market system [36] - Investment institutions are encouraged to align their strategies with national planning, leveraging professional judgment to identify promising sectors and companies for investment [36]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.44%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.51%. The new energy vehicle sector continued its downward trend, with Xpeng Motors (09868) dropping by 2.6%. Meanwhile, the new Hong Kong stock LeMo Technology opened up 62%, trading at HKD 64.8, compared to its issue price of HKD 40 [1] - According to CMB International, domestic demand policies are being promoted, and the market is focusing on the "New Year Opening" expectations. After a consolidation phase in November, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to welcome a layout window for the year-end rally in December. Attention is shifting from external environments to internal policies, particularly the Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for mid-December, which is expected to further detail the "14th Five-Year Plan" and set the fiscal tone for 2026 [1] - China Galaxy stated that as the year-end approaches, market risk appetite is becoming cautious, and the Hong Kong stock market may continue its volatile trend. Suggested sectors to watch include: (1) cyclical stocks that may continue to rebound due to changes in supply-demand dynamics and rising downstream commodity prices; (2) defensive dividend stocks as market risk appetite declines; (3) the positive development of China-U.S. trade relations, which is beneficial for overseas sectors in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - GF Securities noted that historical data shows the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index is about to enter a period (from December to mid-January) where calendar effects are most significant. The probability of achieving absolute and excess returns during this period is relatively high, and the performance of returns is expected to be considerable. In the current market environment, focusing on the allocation opportunities in the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend sector may become an effective strategy for investors to enhance year-end and early-year returns [1][2]