对中国而言，这既是时代赋予的机遇，更是企业出海、产业升级与投资布局的历史性窗口。 2026年开年以来，A股市场表现强劲。一边是AI赛道全面开花，另一边是商业航天火出圈，这波行情你跟上了吗？2026年投资有哪些重点方向？ 近期，"跨越·新程——天弘基金2026年度投资策略会"在北京举办，天弘基金副总经理聂挺进在主题演讲中指出，未来五年的核心投资机遇在于"全球再工 业化"。他认为，这几年与其说是"逆全球化"，不如说是"另一种形式的全球化"。这种全球化比之前更重视产业链安全、供应能力的韧性和服从新的全球 治理，在原有地缘政治格局变化驱动下，全球产业链开始重新解构，从而给各个国家和地区带来再工业化机遇。 时代的浪潮：被重构的全球工业 聂挺进指出，当前全球再工业化由三大因素共同驱动：地缘政治的变迁，促使各国重新审视产业链安全，从"效率优先"转向"安全与效率并重"，产业链 的区域化、近岸化布局成为新常态；以ChatGPT为代表的AI科技革命，正从软算法走向新基建，催生了对算力、电力前所未有的巨量投资；而全球对可 持续发展的共同承诺，则让绿色能源转型从口号变为实实在在的电网改造与新能源建设。 浪潮之下，世界各区域的工业化路 ...

2026年伊始，全球经济延续激荡的"分化"与"重塑"，如何在变革大潮中寻求结构性的投资机遇，成为投 资者关注的焦点。近日，以"跨越·新程"为主题的天弘基金2026年度策略会在北京举行，多位业内人士 给出了自己的思考。 债券投资方面，随着全球降息周期深化与我国利率中枢持续下移，利率低位运行的宽松流动性与供需结 构重塑成为债券市场的新特征。在此背景下，天弘基金总经理助理马龙认为，债券市场将从过去两年由 非银机构主导、追逐资本利得的"新常态"，回归到由银行主导、重视资金成本与仓位管理、票息收入为 先的"旧常态"。 马龙认为，2026年银行业扩表速度将放缓，债券市场将从全面"资产荒"过渡到部分领域供大于求的情 况，在利率债市场中，随着银行需求占比和定价权的提升，市场定价将重新挂钩银行负债成本，这意味 着利率下行将面临银行息差保护的"硬约束"，债券市场投资将呈现出先赚取票息、再寻求资本利得的稳 健本源。 展望2026年债券市场投资机会，马龙认为，债券市场虽然面临挑战，但由于年初中短端利率水平高于 2025年同期水平、机构预期更加理性、负债成本下行进入尾声等因素，2026年的债券基金投资回报预计 将好于2025年投资回报 ...

制造、量子科技、生物制造、芯片、新材料和核聚变六大领域。这些领域与中国"十五五"规 划中的重点产业高度重叠，预示着两大经济体之间的竞争与合作并存。 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 这一判断得到了丹麦著名科技投资人Lars Tvede的验证。他认为，世界正经历史上技术扩散 最快的阶段，AI的影响力已显现在实际的生产活动中。他预计，未来五年有效算力有望增长至 当前的约180万倍，这将催生包括个人AI、具身智能在内的广泛应用，到2050年，按模型推 算的AI认知处理量将达到全人类大脑合计的约5000万倍，并可能承担绝大多数人类白领与体 力工作。Lars Tvede也指出，尽管AI领域的投资存在局部过热，但基于健康的公司财务状 况、有利的宏观背景和相对合理的估值，他将当前阶段视为由强大基本面驱动的前瞻性投 资，而非泡沫。 2026年伊始，全球经济延续激荡的 "分化"与"重塑"，AI浪潮正从资本开支迈入应用落地关键 期，全球再工业化驱动大规模财政投入与制造业回流，重塑供应链格局。国内经济方面，"十 五五"规划的开局之年，围绕发展新质生产力，经济的高质量发展进一步落地见效。 投资者如何在宏观变革的大潮中，寻求结构性的投资机遇，天 ...

回到市场表现，聂挺进表示，2025年，居民资金通过多渠道入市、险资提高权益持股比例、关键资金维稳，形成了多方资金共振的A股行情。2026年，中国 经济结构性亮点仍然突出，有利于主被动公募、私募基金持股比例进一步提升，与主题投资和成长趋势投资共振；保险资金、银行理财资金持续流入，为市 场风险偏好提供支撑。 具体投资方向上，AI的投资逻辑正在从"硬"向"软"和"应用"两端延伸。聂挺进认为，目前的投资重点集中于算力芯片和基础设施，而未来将更多地向AI软 件、端侧智能体应用以及支撑算力爆发的底层绿色能源与电力设备领域扩展。 天弘基金的基金经理张磊进一步分析科技的投资机会。他认为，AI投资重心正从追逐算力硬件向需求侧验证与国产化突破延伸。 "2026年应重点关注三个方向。"张磊称，一是国产算力芯片的性能提升与产能改善；二是半导体设备厂商的基本面改善、存储环节的扩产加速；三是国内AI 应用端出现爆款的可能性。这标志着AI投资进入更务实、更深入的阶段。 此外，全球再工业化直接拉动了对先进制造全产业链的广泛需求。聂挺进强调，这一趋势将带动工业金属之王"铜"的需求，并进一步扩散至锂、钴、铝、镍 等其他工业和能源金属，估值合理的 ...

当前，人工智能正以前所未有的速度和广度渗透经济。财政部原副部长朱光耀在发言中强调，中美两国 已共同处于人工智能发展的第一梯队，美国在最新政策中已明确将人工智能作为实现科学突破、强化国 家安全、确保能源领导地位的战略核心，其产业政策具体指向先进制造、量子科技、生物制造、芯片、 新材料和核聚变六大领域。这些领域与中国"十五五"规划中的重点产业高度重叠，预示着两大经济体之 间的竞争与合作并存。 权益投资：拥抱"AI+全球再工业化"浪潮，关注投资机会的蔓延和扩散 专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 2026年伊始，全球经济延续激荡的 "分化"与"重塑"，AI浪潮正从资本开支迈入应用落地关键期，全球 再工业化驱动大规模财政投入与制造业回流，重塑供应链格局。国内经济方面，"十五五"规划的开局之 年，围绕发展新质生产力，经济的高质量发展进一步落地见效。 投资者如何在宏观变革的大潮中，寻求结构性的投资机遇，天弘基金在刚落幕的《跨越·新程——天弘 基金2026年度策略会》给出了它的思考。 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 这一判断得到了丹麦著名科技投资人Lars Tvede的验证。他认为，世界正经历史上技 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

Core Conclusions - The bull market is entering its second phase, transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull" [1] - After the "super macro month" in October, the market is expected to favor cyclical stocks as a better allocation choice due to high valuations and potential adjustments if EPS does not improve [1][5] - Current market conditions present an optimal window for investing in cyclical stocks, supported by five key reasons [1] Reason 1: Cyclical Stocks as "Friends of Time" - Since Q3, the market has begun to trade based on changes in profitability (△ROE), indicating a return to investment in economic recovery [21] - Cyclical stocks have lagged behind in price compared to improvements in fundamentals, making them more favorable during market adjustments [21][24] Reason 2: Potential Requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, per capita GDP should reach the level of moderately developed countries, requiring an annual growth rate of 4.1% plus inflation and currency appreciation [2][30] - Achieving this goal necessitates a combination of moderate inflation and currency appreciation to establish a growth baseline for cyclical industries [2][31] Reason 3: Cross-Border Capital Inflow, Repeating 2019-2021 - Recent reports emphasize that cross-border capital inflow will effectively support domestic demand, with signs of cyclical improvement already emerging [3][33] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to drive a revaluation of global commodities and domestic manufacturing, similar to the core asset bull market seen post-pandemic [3][36] Reason 4: New Regulations for Public Funds Guiding "Rebalancing" - The introduction of new regulations for public funds is expected to lead to a rebalancing of holdings between TMT and cyclical stocks [4][39] - As public funds have not significantly increased new issuances, the shift from cyclical to TMT stocks has resulted in a decrease in the pricing power of TMT stocks [4][40] Reason 5: Slowdown in Incremental Capital Inflows, Entering a Competitive Phase - Since September, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the inflow of various types of capital, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][44] - The market is transitioning into a phase of competition, with cyclical stocks likely to benefit from this change [5][51] Investment Recommendations: Transitioning from "Technology Bull" to "Wealth Bull" - The report suggests continuing to invest in cyclical stocks, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, as these areas are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [5][54]

Group 1 - Global capital is hesitant, indicating a "noise" before a major market rebound, with A-shares returning to a defensive style focused on dividends and micro-cap stocks [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted its strategic focus from "technological innovation" to "supply chain enhancement," ensuring supply chain security and high-end manufacturing autonomy [2][18] - The emphasis on domestic consumption has upgraded from "comprehensive promotion of consumption" to "strongly boosting consumption," reflecting a stronger policy commitment [2][18] Group 2 - Cross-border capital is significantly returning, which is a crucial material guarantee for the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy and the macro engine for China's asset revival [3][20] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to fundamentally improve cash flow for enterprises and households, providing a material basis for boosting consumption and supporting manufacturing [3][20] Group 3 - China is adopting a steady path, focusing on solidifying competitive advantages through capital expenditure expansion and policy adjustments, while the U.S. faces challenges due to premature and excessive investment in AI infrastructure [4][23] - The U.S. is experiencing a "Ponzi-like" dilemma, where high unit costs of AI infrastructure hinder commercialization, potentially leading to a significant economic crisis [4][23] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic layout for the "golden era" of Chinese assets, emphasizing a combination of sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [5][26] - The anticipated "ice-fire conversion" moment for manufacturing and consumption assets is supported by the return of cross-border capital and the strategic shift in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][26]

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical expectations [2] - The globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements [2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [3] - The recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risk outlook [3] - The upcoming reforms in the capital market, including the launch of the growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, are anticipated to accelerate market adjustments [3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive funding environment supporting the ongoing trend [4] - The key factor for the continuation of the positive feedback from the funding side is the profitability effect [4] - Focus areas for investment include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] Group 4 - The three main drivers of the current upward trend in A-shares remain unchanged, with a focus on low penetration sectors [5] - Attention is drawn to solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [5] - The market is still in a bull market phase, with expectations for further growth [5] Group 5 - There has been significant inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with a notable increase in passive fund inflows [6] - The reduction in positions in high-priced options indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - Overall, the long-term outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index remains bullish [6] Group 6 - The market is currently experiencing a rotation among sectors, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [7] - Key areas of interest include humanoid robots, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The market is expected to continue its rotation while maintaining a high level of focus on individual stock performance [7] Group 7 - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market driven by improving corporate earnings is in the making [8] - Opportunities are identified in upstream resources, capital goods, and raw materials due to improved operating conditions [8] - Domestic demand-related sectors are also expected to present opportunities as earnings recover [8] Group 8 - The market is transitioning from a focus on existing stocks to an expansion of new opportunities driven by incremental capital [9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities based on industry trends and economic conditions rather than merely switching between high and low positions [9] - The market is expected to see a broadening of investment opportunities as new capital flows in [9] Group 9 - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market approaches the fourth quarter [10] - Historical trends indicate that stocks that performed well in the third quarter may not continue their momentum into the fourth quarter [10] - The focus is on cyclical stocks and those benefiting from global pricing resources as key areas for investment in the upcoming quarter [10] Group 10 - The recovery of free cash flow in export-advantaged manufacturing sectors is anticipated due to policy changes and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is expected to undergo systematic restructuring [11] - The return of global capital to China is likely to drive a bullish trend in high-end manufacturing sectors [12]

Group 1 - Foreign capital is expected to increase investment in "export advantage" assets such as new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which typically accelerate global capital flow back to China [1][10][11] - The expansion of capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the manufacturing sector, supported by fiscal subsidies since 2019, has solidified China's global competitive advantage in high-end manufacturing, despite negatively impacting financial metrics like return on invested capital (ROIC) and free cash flow [2][16][19] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance the financial returns of China's manufacturing sector, with signs of improving free cash flow in some "export advantage" industries as CAPEX contracts [3][24][30] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to experience a "main rising wave" as foreign capital returns to Hong Kong stocks, driven by both southbound capital and foreign investment [4][33] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on three main lines: "hard currency" assets under globalization, "hard technology" sectors, and Chinese manufacturing benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [5][34][37] Group 3 - The report highlights that the current market environment may lead to a phase of consolidation in A-shares, with a shift in market style towards high-quality manufacturing and technology sectors [5][34][40] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in retail sales and industrial output, suggesting potential challenges for consumer-driven sectors [51][52]