周一（7月28日），现货黄金美盘一度跳水至3300美元/盎司附近，连跌四日，创近三周新低。金价的震 荡下行不仅受到美欧达成贸易协议的直接影响，也与美元指数的强劲反弹、全球风险偏好的回暖以及市 场对美联储利率政策的期待密切相关。 与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展，以及地缘局势的持续紧张，仍为黄金市场的未来走势增添了更多不确 定性。而本周（7月28日-8月1日）即将登场的"超级数据周"，更被视为黄金投资的关键分水岭。 一、美欧协议：避险情绪退潮，黄金短期承压 根据最新达成的框架协议，美将对欧商品统一征收15%关税，而欧承诺五年内增加对美投资6000亿美 元，并采购7500亿美元能源及装备。这一消息直接推动标普500指数和纳斯达克指数刷新历史高位，风 险资产吸引力显著提升，避险资金随之撤离黄金市场。 不过，美元强势背后暗藏变数。尽管短期受贸易协议预期提振，但美元指数上周仍录得近一个月最大单 周跌幅。天誉国际团队报告指出，美联储在货币政策上的谨慎态度，叠加特持续施压要求降息，可能限 制美元进一步上行空间。若美联储独立性受损引发美元走软，将为黄金提供重要支撑，黄金投资者需密 切关注这一变量。发美元走软，将为黄金提供重要支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been declining significantly, with gold jewelry prices in China dropping below 1000 yuan per gram [2][5]. Price Trends - From July 23 to July 28, COMEX gold futures prices fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of nearly 4% [2]. - On June 28, the London gold spot price closed at 3314.18 USD per ounce, down over 110 USD per ounce from the high on July 22 [5]. - Major domestic gold jewelry brands have seen their prices drop below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific examples including: - Zhou Shengsheng: 994 yuan per gram, down 35 yuan from the high of 1029 yuan on July 23 [5]. - Lao Miao: 995 yuan per gram, down 28 yuan over six days [5]. - Chow Tai Fook: 998 yuan per gram, down 25 yuan over six days [5]. Market Influences - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets, influenced by easing global trade tensions and economic talks between the US and China [8]. - On July 23, President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, reducing auto tariffs, which is seen as a template for future trade policies [8]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is also impacting gold prices, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, which may lead to mixed market reactions [9]. Historical Context - In the first half of 2025, global conflicts increased demand for gold, leading to a significant price rise. By the end of June, the London gold price had increased by 24.31% compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - The average gold price for the first half of 2025 was 3066.59 USD per ounce, up 39.21% year-on-year [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that while gold may experience short-term declines due to shifting interest towards silver and copper, the fundamental reasons for gold's strength as a safe-haven asset remain unchanged [9].

与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，今年初尤其是4月初以来， 关税战和全球贸易战成为影响金价的重要因素，贸易战激烈时金价上行，达成关税协议、贸易战缓和时金价明 显回落。 美日、美欧之间关税谈判落定，市场对全球经济风险判断转向，作为避险资产的黄金投资热度下降。 此外，地缘政治风险上升时金价抬升，缓和时金价下行，过去几年地缘政治风险一直是影响金价的主要因素。经济数据和货币政策也有影响。美国就业率 好转、美元指数上升，对黄金价格形成压制。 29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价 995元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌25元/克。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。 从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报3310.0美元/盎司。 专家提醒，未来黄金价 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, closing at $3314.44, marking a drop of approximately 0.66% [1] - The downward trend in gold prices is influenced by the strong rebound of the US dollar index, improved global risk appetite, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - The recent US-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a global economic downturn, boosting risk assets and putting pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement that sets import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to make strategic purchases worth up to $750 billion during Trump's term, further enhancing market optimism and reducing demand for gold [4] - Ongoing US-China trade talks provide some support for gold prices, as negotiations aim to extend the trade truce by 90 days, although no significant breakthroughs are expected [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [6] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with four consecutive days of declines suggesting strong selling pressure [8] - Short-term price movements may challenge the support level around $3250, with potential further declines if this level is breached [8] - Current trading activity shows gold prices stabilizing around the $3300 mark, with traders advised to monitor for potential short positions near $3330 [8] Market Sentiment - The US bond market reflects optimistic sentiment, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continue to perform strongly, indicating a preference for risk assets among investors [2] - Despite the positive sentiment in equities, the upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases may introduce new volatility into the market [2]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a tariff agreement, alleviating some concerns about a potential trade war between the two economies [1][3] - The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, but there are unresolved issues regarding the scope of the agreement, particularly concerning metals [3] - UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the trade agreement could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold while also potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this year, which is typically favorable for gold [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased by over 25% this year, driven by uncertainties from President Trump's aggressive trade policies and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East [3] - After reaching a historical high of over $3,500 per ounce in April, fund managers have raised their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in 16 weeks, according to the latest CFTC report [3] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming data that may influence market and economic trends for the remainder of the year, with particular attention on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy [3]

周一（7月28日）白银上涨力度不足回落，市场短空轻仓布局方案。本周市场将经历国际贸易局势、美联储等央行利率决议、美国PCE等重磅经济数据和地 缘局势的多重重磅风险事件冲击。美元强势：黄金的"天敌"卷土重来美元作为全球储备货币，其走势对黄金价格的影响至关重要。上周，美元指数从逾两周 低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，例如6月核心资本财订单的温和增长，还得益于市场对美欧 贸易谈判乐观情绪的消化。美元的反弹直接削弱了黄金的吸引力，因为更高的美元价格让持有其他货币的投资者望而却步。这种短期压力使得金价在3400美 元关口受阻后迅速回落，凸显了美元对黄金价格的"紧箍咒"效应。 然而，美元的强势并非没有隐忧。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美联储在货币政策上的 谨慎态度以及特朗普对美联储的持续施压，可能限制美元的进一步上涨空间。这种复杂背景为黄金提供了一定的支撑，因为市场对美联储未来降息的预期并 未完全消退。 美欧贸易谈判的进展成为近期金价下跌的另一大推手。当地时间7月27日，特朗普宣布美国与欧盟达成框架协议，对欧盟输 ...

Group 1: ETF Market Expansion - The ETF market has continued to expand in the first half of the year, with the market size surpassing 4 trillion yuan and the number of products exceeding 1,000 [1] - Leading brokerage firms in the ETF trading business include Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities, which together hold over 25% market share [1] - Huatai Securities leads in trading account numbers with a market share of 10.6%, indicating increased concentration among top brokerage firms [1] Group 2: Asset Management Industry Consolidation - Guotai Junan has announced the merger of its asset management subsidiary with Haitong Asset Management, marking the first merger of brokerage asset management subsidiaries in the industry [2] - This merger is expected to enhance the core competitiveness of Guotai Haitong Securities in wealth management and address issues of intra-industry competition [2] - The consolidation may serve as a model for further structural adjustments within the asset management sector [2] Group 3: Growth of Gold-themed Funds - Gold-themed funds have gained significant investor interest this year, with 53 funds collectively increasing in size by 128.5 billion yuan, a growth rate of 108.53% [3] - All 53 gold-themed funds have seen their net values rise, with 22 funds achieving net value growth rates exceeding 30% [3] - The surge in gold fund investments reflects heightened investor focus on safe-haven assets, potentially impacting market risk appetite [3] Group 4: Regulatory Actions in Private Equity - Over 600 private equity firms have been deregistered this year due to increased regulatory scrutiny, with more than 200 disciplinary actions taken against violators [4] - Regulatory bodies are pushing for a more standardized development of the private equity industry, leading to a significant acceleration in the elimination of non-compliant firms [4] - This trend is expected to enhance the overall quality of the private equity sector and reinforce market discipline, promoting long-term stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing bullish sentiment towards gold among hedge funds, driven by rising risk aversion due to trade tensions and economic uncertainty, with gold prices experiencing a significant increase this year. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have raised their bullish bets on gold to the highest level since April, with net long positions increasing by 19% to 170,868 contracts as of the week ending July 22, marking a 16-week high [1] - The ongoing trade war has led to market volatility, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which has contributed to a 27% increase in gold prices year-to-date [1] Group 2: Central Bank Support - The rise in bullish positions for gold is also supported by continuous purchases from global central banks, providing additional support for gold prices [2] - Despite potential easing of trade tensions that may reduce demand for safe-haven assets, strong central bank buying remains a solid fundamental support for gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates has significant implications for the U.S. economy and international gold prices, drawing attention from global markets [1]. Impact on International Gold Prices - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies typically increases the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, especially amid inflation, currency devaluation, and political instability [2]. - The potential removal of Powell due to political pressure or significant adjustments in monetary policy could lead to drastic fluctuations in gold prices, particularly in a complex global economic landscape [2]. - If Trump successfully influences the Fed to lower interest rates, gold prices may rise due to heightened economic growth concerns; conversely, if Powell maintains current policies, the gold market may enter a period of adjustment with reduced short-term volatility [2]. Market Volatility and Investor Strategies - Regardless of future developments, the volatility in the gold market remains a critical factor that investors must monitor closely, adjusting their strategies as necessary [3]. - Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in Federal Reserve policies, as any major adjustments could directly impact the gold market [5]. - Flexibility in responding to gold market fluctuations is essential, particularly during periods of policy changes and increased global economic uncertainty [6]. - Selecting a reliable trading platform is crucial in a turbulent market environment, with companies like Lingfeng Global providing robust technical support and real-time market analysis [7].