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Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market will enter a "game" era in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy and a focus on "debt reduction + development," with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4% [5][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nominal GDP growth rate of around 5.5% to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035, necessitating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%-7.5% from 2026 to 2035 [31][32] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards a focus on "coupon and leverage" rather than solely capital gains, as the market lacks clear trends [5][21] Group 1: Supply and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to expand, with a focus on "debt reduction + development," leading to a significant increase in special bond issuance [7][12] - The monetary policy will maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to support fiscal efforts and alleviate bank liabilities [5][13] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to a high supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2026, which may test market sentiment [5][12] Group 2: Economic Growth and Internal Demand - The report highlights a shift in global monetary policy towards differentiation, with domestic growth needing to focus more on internal demand expansion [32][40] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market to enhance economic efficiency [31][32] - The expected economic growth will require a stable inflation rate and a focus on enhancing internal growth dynamics to recover from the impacts of previous economic models [31][32] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The report suggests prioritizing duration control in investment strategies for 2026, focusing on capturing short-term opportunities and structural adjustments in bond types [5][21] - The changing landscape of asset pricing and institutional demand may lead to differentiated investment behaviors among banks, insurance companies, and funds [5][12] - The report warns against a mechanical extension of duration for capital gains, advocating for a more active management approach to enhance returns [5][21]

作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 去年基础设施建设投资（下称基建投资）增速罕见出现下滑。 1月19日，国家统计局公开数据，2025年全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）约48.5万亿元，比上 年下降3.8%。分领域来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）下降2.2%。 这是2014年以来国家统计局公布的基建投资增速中，首次出现增速下滑情形。 根据国家统计局数据，2014年基建投资增速同比增长约21.5%，此后几年基建投资增速均保持两位 数高增长，但2018年基建投资增速大幅降至3.8%，2020年疫情冲击下，基建投资增速进一步下 滑，2021年降至0.4%低点。2022年国家积极推进落实稳经济一揽子政策和接续措施，基建投资增 速反弹至9.4%，2023年和2024年基建投资增速逐步放缓，分别为5.9%和4.4%，基本保持平稳增 长。 不过2025年全年基建投资同比增速下滑至2.2%。从2025年全年的月度增速来看，增速呈现逐步放 缓态势。2025年一季度基建投资增速高达5.8%，上半年这一增速放缓至4.6%，前三季度这一增速 放缓至1.1%，而全年则出现下滑。为何如此？ 2026.01. 19 本文字 ...

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure investment growth rate in China has experienced a rare decline in 2025, marking the first drop since 2014, with a total fixed asset investment of approximately 48.5 trillion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - In 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2%, contrasting with previous years of high growth [1] - The growth rate of infrastructure investment has shown a "high at the beginning, low at the end" pattern, aligning with the overall economic growth pace, influenced by tight local finances and limited quality project reserves [1][2] - The monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2025 started at 5.8% in Q1 but slowed to 4.6% in H1 and further to 1.1% in Q3, ultimately resulting in an annual decline [1] Group 2: Funding Sources and Fiscal Policies - The main sources of funding for infrastructure investment include self-raised funds, national budget funds, domestic loans, foreign investment, and other funds, with a significant reduction in net financing from local government bonds due to strict regulations [3] - In 2025, public budget expenditures for infrastructure saw a decline, with agricultural, forestry, and water expenditures down 13.6%, and urban and rural community expenditures down 8.3% [3] - The fiscal expenditure structure is optimizing, with increased spending on social welfare sectors like education and healthcare, indicating a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people" [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated a list of major projects and a central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, to support economic growth [6] - The 2026 fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be more proactive, which will support infrastructure investment and overall economic development [5] - Local governments have begun issuing bonds exceeding 2 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, directing funds towards significant project construction, such as the new high-speed railway project [6]

去年基础设施建设投资（下称基建投资）增速罕见出现下滑。 1月19日，国家统计局公开数据，2025年全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）约48.5万亿元，比上年下 降3.8%。分领域来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）下降2.2%。 这是2014年以来国家统计局公布的基建投资增速中，首次出现增速下滑情形。 根据国家统计局数据，2014年基建投资增速同比增长约21.5%，此后几年基建投资增速均保持两位数高 增长，但2018年基建投资增速大幅降至3.8%，2020年疫情冲击下，基建投资增速进一步下滑，2021年 降至0.4%低点。2022年国家积极推进落实稳经济一揽子政策和接续措施，基建投资增速反弹至9.4%， 2023年和2024年基建投资增速逐步放缓，分别为5.9%和4.4%，基本保持平稳增长。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒对第一财经分析，2025年基建投资增速总体呈现出"前高后低"格局，与经 济增速总体节奏一致。这与地方财政处于紧平衡以及优质项目储备有限有关。 不过2025年全年基建投资同比增速下滑至2.2%。从2025年全年的月度增速来看，增速呈现逐步放缓态 势。2025年一季度基建投资增速 ...

再论 2026 年化工行业投资机会 20260116 摘要 基础化工板块配置当前有所回升但未达标配，行业景气度回升有望使其 恢复至标配甚至超配。2025 年二季度起，化工行业收入、利润、毛利 率等指标触底回升，预示行业复苏。 国内自建工程和资本开支增速放缓，欧洲关闭大量化工产能，缓解国内 外市场供需压力。2023 年以来，欧洲关闭约 1,100 万吨产能，多家化 工企业业绩大幅下滑甚至亏损。 2026 年是"十五五"规划开局之年，历史数据显示规划开局年前两季 度基础化工行业指数通常跑赢大盘。国家电网未来五年投资 4 万亿人民 币，将拉动相关化工需求。 制冷剂行业受益于配额方案的持续推行，高景气度有望维持。2025 年 制冷剂价格稳定在高位，下游空调厂采购合同周期缩短，有助于业绩及 时反映市场情况。 磷化工领域，磷矿石价格维持高位稳定，储能需求超预期带动磷酸铁锂 及磷酸铁原材料价格。草铵膦价格近期上涨，农药小品种价格也出现显 著涨幅，行业前景向好。 Q&A 2026 年化工行业的投资机会有哪些？ 2026 年化工行业的投资机会主要基于以下几个方面： 炼化和聚酯板块受益于油价回升及库存收益，PX 盈利能力较好，P ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent National Ecological Environment Protection Work Conference emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year" plan for ecological environment protection and the construction of a beautiful China, marking a significant milestone in ecological civilization and environmental protection efforts in the country [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Importance - The "14th Five-Year" period is crucial for laying the foundation for socialist modernization and achieving the second centenary goal, with a focus on significant progress in beautiful China construction [2][3]. - The construction of a beautiful China is linked to the overall realization of socialist modernization and is a key aspect of the economic and social development goals set by the 20th National Congress [2] Group 2: Implementation Mechanisms - Strengthening the party's leadership in beautiful China construction is essential, with a comprehensive responsibility system established that includes central coordination, provincial accountability, and local implementation [2][3]. - The implementation system for beautiful China construction will be improved, with a focus on integrating pollution prevention and ecological protection efforts [2][3]. Group 3: Major Goals and Tasks - The main goals for the next five years include forming a green production and lifestyle, achieving carbon peak targets, and establishing a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system [3][4]. - Continuous efforts will be made to advance pollution prevention and ecological system optimization, alongside the promotion of a new energy system and green lifestyle [3][4]. Group 4: Action Plans - High-quality planning for the "14th Five-Year" beautiful China construction will be developed, outlining strategic tasks, major projects, and key initiatives [4]. - The implementation of special planning for key areas will be prioritized, focusing on air quality improvement, water ecological environment protection, and nuclear safety [4].

Core Viewpoint - By 2035, Shanghai aims to double its per capita GDP compared to 2020, with significant advancements in various sectors and the establishment of a modern international metropolis with global influence [1]. Economic Growth and Development Goals - Shanghai's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, synchronizing with national growth, and enhancing overall productivity [1]. - The plan includes a focus on manufacturing, service sector innovation, and the development of a modern rural industrial system [1]. Key Industries and Technological Advancements - Shanghai will prioritize agile development in quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, controlled nuclear fusion, biomanufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile communications [1][4]. - The city aims to strengthen its position in three leading industries: integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, promoting comprehensive breakthroughs across the entire industry chain [4]. Financial Sector Development - Shanghai plans to enhance its international financial center status by establishing a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, and by promoting the Shanghai International Financial Asset Trading Platform [5]. - The city will focus on developing technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to support small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. International Trade and Shipping - The plan includes strengthening trade hub functions, expanding high-value product imports and exports, and promoting digital trade [6]. - Shanghai aims to enhance its international shipping center status by improving its global air and sea hub capabilities [6]. Innovation and Talent Development - The city will deepen basic research and focus on high-risk, high-value foundational research to produce significant original outcomes [7]. - There will be an emphasis on creating a talent development system that aligns with innovation and entrepreneurship [7]. High-Level Reform and Opening Up - Shanghai's strategy includes deepening high-level reforms and opening up to enhance the vitality of various business entities and to create a new open economic system [9][11]. - The city will focus on optimizing state-owned enterprise reforms and supporting the growth of the private economy [9]. Market Reforms and Infrastructure - The plan aims to eliminate barriers in factor acquisition and improve logistics costs through comprehensive reforms [10]. - Shanghai will establish a global technology trading hub and enhance data element circulation mechanisms [10].

李贻伟在报告中指出，过去一年，在中共广东省委、广州市委的坚强领导下，市政协深入学习贯彻中共 二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真学习领悟习近平总书记视察广东和出席第十五届全国运动会开幕式 重要讲话重要指示精神，紧扣"拼经济、保安全，办全运、提品质"工作主线，坚持发扬民主和增进团结 相互贯通、建言资政与凝聚共识双向发力，组织动员各参加单位、广大政协委员认真履职尽责，为推动 广州高质量发展作出了积极贡献。 报告从七个方面回顾总结了2025年的主要工作：一是围绕建设现代化产业体系集智献策，在培育新兴产 业、巩固优势产业、促进服务业优质高效等方面提出系列高质量建议；二是围绕激活科创动能献计出 力，助力创新平台建设、创新成果转化和夯实人才支撑；三是围绕优化营商环境出谋划策，推动市场化 法治化国际化一流营商环境建设与高水平开放平台构建；四是围绕促进城乡区域协调发展建言发声，积 极响应省"百千万工程"，着眼激活存量资源、强化品牌效应，推动下好区域协调发展"一盘棋"；五是围 绕推进城市高效能治理调研协商，在优化交通治理、筑牢安全防线、建设绿美广州等方面提出实招；六 是围绕提高人民健康水平履职尽责，推动医疗服务提质、全民健康数智化 ...

"2025年上海写字楼市场穿越逆周期， 2026年将是完成新旧动能转换的关键一年。"1月15日，莱坊华北 和华东区董事总经理黄蔚如是表示。 近日，多家商业地产顾问服务公司相继发布2025年第四季度及全年报告与2026年展望。整体来看，2025 年上海甲级办公楼市场尽管需求复苏速度缓慢，但呈现逐季递增的趋势。CBRE世邦魏理仕的报告显 示，下半年随着企业搬迁和扩租活动明显增多，全年净吸纳量同比增长76.6%。仲量联行的报告显示， 2025年四季度，整体市场流动性继续温和修复，随着甲级与乙级项目之间的租金差距缩小，升级需求持 续释放。莱坊的报告显示，2025年第四季度市场新增供应环比增长55%，不过净吸纳量环比增长9.3%， 释放出需求端改善的积极信号。 仲量联行上海商业地产部总监兼华东区零售地产部负责人黄臻表示："整体市场继续利好租户方，企业 利用当前市场条件积极争取有利的租约条款和升级机会，部分行业在年末录得大面积成交。" 展望2026年，多家商业地产顾问服务公司的报告认为，"十五五"规划的开局有望为市场注入强劲动力， 推动市场供需更趋动态平衡。 莱坊的报告指出，从市场基本面看，供应压力有望边际缓解。过去五年 ...