金十数据7月24日讯，美国银行策略师Alex Cohen表示，围绕美联储领导层前景的不确定性正在削弱美 元表现，相关疑虑"显然比其他资产更早影响到美元"，并可能是美元迟迟未能反弹的主要阻力。"即便 未来领导层更换以较常规方式进行，市场也开始预期一个更加宽松的美联储环境，"科恩指出。特朗普 持续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求其降息，今日还计划到访美联储总部，进一步凸显政治干预迹象。 美银：美联储独立性存疑施压美元 市场担忧加剧宽松倾向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Portuguese government has nominated Alvaro Santos Pereira, the chief economist of the OECD, to be the next governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, whose term ended on July 19 [1] Group 1: Appointment Details - Alvaro Santos Pereira will replace Carlos Costa, who was known as a "dove" representative advocating for loose monetary policy within the European Central Bank [1] - The governor of the Bank of Portugal is nominated by the cabinet for a five-year term, which can be renewed once [1] - Carlos Costa had previously expressed a willingness to continue in the role of governor [1] Group 2: Nomination Process - The new nominee must undergo questioning by a parliamentary committee, although this committee does not have the authority to veto the nomination [1] - Following the committee's questioning, the government can proceed with the official appointment of the new governor [1]

金十数据7月24日讯，土耳其央行周四宣布将基准利率下调300个基点至43%，超出市场预期。随着市场 趋于平稳、通胀持续回落，土耳其央行再次转向降息。该央行表示，未来的降息步幅将以审慎方式逐次 会议决定，并将其利率走廊的上限从49%下调至46%。土耳其央行在4月将政策利率从42.5%上调至 46%，逆转去年12月启动的降息周期，原因是3月伊斯坦布尔市长、总统政敌伊马莫卢被捕后引发的市 场波动。土耳其央行表示，6月核心通胀趋势保持平稳，预计本月受一次性因素影响，月度通胀将出 现"暂时上行"。货币政策委员会指出，最新数据显示，需求对通胀的抑制效应正在增强。 土耳其央行重启宽松周期 大幅降息300个基点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, which have led to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets [4][5]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% "reciprocal" tariff on goods exported to the U.S. from Japan [4][8]. - The U.S. is reportedly close to finalizing a trade agreement with the EU, which may involve a 15% tariff on European imports, preventing a potential increase to 30% [4]. - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan that could reach up to €93 billion, with a maximum rate of 30%, if an agreement is not reached by August 1 [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreements, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 400 points, reflecting strong market optimism [5]. - Analysts suggest that the clarity in trade policies is beneficial for market stability and could lead to continued stock market gains [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - There is increasing speculation regarding a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy [11][12]. - Market participants are betting on a significant interest rate cut in 2026, with expectations rising from a 25 basis point cut in April to a 76 basis point cut now [11]. - The potential for a new Fed chair who favors rate cuts is influencing investment strategies on Wall Street [12].

Core Viewpoint - Bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will implement more aggressive interest rate cuts in 2026, driven by speculation that a potential leadership change at the Fed will lead to a more accommodative monetary policy as desired by President Donald Trump [1] Group 1 - Traders are focusing on the yield spread between SOFR futures maturing in December 2025 and December 2026, which reflects market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts during that period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the necessity for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the annual target [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was only 3.9%, with a GDP deflator index decline of 1.2%, indicating persistent supply-demand imbalances [4][6]. Policy Drivers - Economic growth was supported by proactive policies and early implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as the "trade-in" policy, which significantly improved retail sales in various categories [6][9]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy showing substantial growth, such as home appliances and communication equipment [6][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment at 4.6% and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [9]. - Investment in equipment and tools surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [9]. Export Performance - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [13][20]. - Diversification of exports helped mitigate the decline in U.S. exports, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [13][20]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate [15][16]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on consumer spending may weaken in the second half due to lower absolute funding compared to the first half and higher base effects from last year [16]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the second half of the year will see targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, focusing on optimizing existing budget allocations and supporting key sectors [27][28]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and address unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [29]. Investment and Infrastructure - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key growth driver, with ongoing projects and new policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [31][32]. - The government is likely to focus on urban renewal and improving housing quality while avoiding excessive stimulus measures [34]. Monetary Policy - A slight reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates may occur, but significant monetary easing is not anticipated in the short term [36][37]. - The stability of the RMB against the USD is expected to be maintained, with potential slight depreciation against other currencies [36][37].

智通财经7月23日电，日本央行副行长内田真一表示，目前而言，日本央行必须通过宽松货币政策支撑 经济。 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：目前而言，日本央行必须通过宽松货币政策支撑经济。 ...

Core Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains extremely high [1] - Maintaining an accommodative monetary policy is crucial to support the economy [1] Group 1 - The high level of uncertainty in trade policies could impact economic stability [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy indicates a proactive approach to economic support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].