贵金属日报 2025-12-23 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2025-12-22 2025-12-19 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2025-12-22 2025-12-19 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | 4480.60 | 4368.70 | 上涨 | 2.56% | 99.60% | | 成交量 | | 万手 | 19.85 | 16.12 | 上涨 | 23.16% | 49.20% | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 43.26 | 41.85 | 上涨 | 3.36% | 7.54% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1123 ...

Group 1 - The potential announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts next year, which may attract more foreign capital into the A-share market and enhance overall market valuations [1] - The robotics industry gained significant attention over the weekend, highlighted by a performance at a concert where a robot executed a difficult flip, and a Chinese robot winning a global combat robotics competition, indicating China's leading position in the robotics sector [1] - The commercialization of Level 3 autonomous driving is accelerating, with the first official license plate for Level 3 autonomous driving being issued, marking a significant step beyond testing to actual commercial application [1] Group 2 - SpaceX's IPO process is being led by Morgan Stanley, representing a major development; however, a rare incident involving Starlink satellites has created volatility in market expectations for SpaceX [1] - Regulatory scrutiny in the brokerage sector is increasing, with 326 penalties issued against 73 brokerage firms in 2025, which may be seen as a positive development for retail investors as it suggests a healthier market environment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm employment and inflation data in the US have boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 1002 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the significant increase in the early stage during the Hassert nomination process, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and pay attention to the risk of short - term sharp fluctuations. The reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract is 13918 - 16000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 980.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.42% to 15228.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4363.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 65.45 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.12%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.44 [2] - The inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday was significantly lower than expected, which boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy and supported the prices of gold and silver. The year - on - year CPI in the US in November was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, significantly lower than the expected 3%. The housing rent, which accounts for the highest proportion, showed a significant decline. The year - on - year CPI of out - of - home accommodation was - 4.1%, significantly lower than - 0.1% in September, which also caused the year - on - year CPI of housing to fall from 3.5% in September to 3%. The housing rent CPI accounts for 35% of the overall CPI, which is an important reason for the significant decline in this inflation data [2] - The US labor market showed weakness. The number of newly added non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the newly added non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [3] - With the weakening of both employment and inflation data in the US, the current CME interest rate observer shows that the market's probability expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 26.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by March is 46.8% [3] Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 0.17% to 4363.90 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume increased by 11.14% to 228,600 lots; the position volume decreased by 3.34% to 418,500 lots; the inventory increased by 0.22% to 1122 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.41% to 4342.10 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) contract increased by 0.08% to 980.50 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 9.26% to 318,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.15% to 349,800 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.01% to 91.72 tons; the settled funds increased by 1.23% to 54.873 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 0.18% to 974.68 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 14.24% to 42.67 tons; the position volume increased by 0.92% to 219.11 tons [5] - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 1.49% to 65.45 US dollars/ounce; the position volume increased by 4.35% to 150,800 lots; the inventory increased by 0.05% to 14095 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 4.71% to 65.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE contract increased by 0.06% to 15,521.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 4.76% to 2,736,200 lots; the position volume decreased by 1.94% to 783,300 lots; the inventory increased by 0.03% to 912.16 tons; the settled funds decreased by 1.88% to 32.824 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 0.05% to 15,463.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 31.79% to 900.98 tons; the position volume decreased by 3.71% to 3622.722 tons [5] Price Difference Information - For gold, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 5.30 yuan/gram or - 23.40 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.02 yuan/gram or 4.50 US dollars/ounce [50] - For silver, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 817.72 yuan/kilogram or 3.62 US dollars/ounce [50]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Core Logic: "De-dollarization" and credit hedging are the fundamental drivers, with central banks continuing to purchase gold amid concerns over U.S. debt and dollar credit [1] - Strong Trend: Institutions predict potential for gold prices to continue rising due to ongoing central bank purchases and Federal Reserve's accommodative stance [1] - Global Central Bank Demand: This is the most solid long-term demand source for gold [1] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - Financial and Industrial Attributes: Silver benefits from both its financial properties and additional support from industrial demand, particularly in sectors like renewable energy [3] - High Volatility and Elasticity: Due to a smaller market size and structural supply-demand gaps, silver often experiences larger price increases compared to gold [4] - Long-term Supply-Demand Imbalance: Visible inventories are at historical lows, significantly below safe boundaries, providing fundamental price support [5] Group 3: Market Scenarios - Scenario One: If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance through 2026 and U.S. debt issues persist, gold may continue its upward trend steadily [8] - Scenario Two: If strong U.S. economic data leads to a slowdown in Fed easing or unexpected rate hikes from the Bank of Japan trigger capital flow reversals, significant market volatility may occur [10] Group 4: External Factors and Risks - External Risks: Geopolitical conflicts and sudden liquidity shocks could heighten short-term volatility across all assets [12] - Regulatory Changes: Monitoring adjustments in margin ratios and price limits by domestic exchanges is crucial for risk management [12]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate from 4% to 3.75% [1][9] - The labor market is under significant pressure, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% in August 2024 to 5.1% in October 2024, indicating a deteriorating employment situation [3][11] - The UK's GDP growth has been declining, with the quarterly growth rate falling below 1% for two years, reaching a low of 0.1% in Q3 2023, prompting the Bank of England to consider more accommodative monetary policies [5][15] Group 2 - The GBP/USD currency pair is currently in a medium-term consolidation phase, with a trading range of 778 points between a high of 1.3787 and a low of 1.3009 since May 12 [8][18] - The previous medium-term high of 1.3725 may act as a resistance level for the current upward movement, and a break below the lower boundary of the rising channel could indicate the formation of a new downward trend [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Indonesian government has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down over one-third from the 379 million tons planned for 2025, aiming to stabilize nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian government is strengthening its maritime and mining regulatory oversight, with new regulations reducing the approval cycle for the RKAB policy from three years to one year, increasing market expectations for future tightness in ore supply [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that nickel prices will rebound to $15,500 per ton by 2026, with supply and demand expected to grow simultaneously [2] Group 2 - Company, Liqian Resources, primarily operates in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain, including upstream nickel resource integration, laterite nickel ore and nickel product trading, and the production of nickel compounds and nickel iron, with a wet nickel production capacity of 120,000 tons [2] - The optimistic long-term supply outlook for nickel is leading to a reassessment of the value of Liqian Resources as a core participant in the industry chain [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the entire industrial metals sector, with the Federal Reserve recently announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans to purchase a large amount of short-term debt, which is expected to continue in the coming year, enhancing the attractiveness of commodities priced in USD [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of domestic futures contracts on December 18, 2025, with most contracts showing gains, particularly coking coal rising nearly 5% and silver, coking coal, and glass increasing over 3% [2][6] - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment continues to support precious metals, with the US dollar index rising [8] - Federal Reserve's survey shows that businesses expect a 4% increase in prices next year due to tariff pressures, reinforcing long-term inflation expectations [8] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted that interest rates remain 50-100 basis points above neutral levels and emphasized that there is still room for rate cuts, solidifying a dovish outlook [4][8] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding discussions between the US and Russia on the Ukraine issue, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets [4][8] - Policy statements from the central banks of Japan and Thailand also contribute to a relatively accommodative financial environment [4][8]

格隆汇12月17日｜财经网站分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示，国际现货白银价格飙升至历史新高，不断变化的市场动态正推动这种工业金属的表现远远超出历 史常态。在今天早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上的，突破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一。持续的供应短缺，以及行业 和投资者的强劲需求，罕见地结合在一起，支撑了这轮上涨。全球调查显示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然受限，而可再生能 源、电子产品和其他工业部门的消费继续扩大。宏观因素也有影响。对宽松货币政策和实际收益率持续压缩的预期降低了持有贵金属等非收益资产的机会成 本，吸引了寻求多元化和通胀对冲的机构投资组合的兴趣。 | 65.177 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 63.838 | | | | | | | | | | 62.569 | | | | | | | | | | 61.301 | | | | | | | | | | 60.032 | | | | | | | | | | 58.7 ...

Group 1 - The international silver price has surged to a historical high, driven by changing market dynamics and strong demand from both industries and investors, marking one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025 [3] - The silver market has experienced a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year due to limited mining output, while consumption in renewable energy, electronics, and other industrial sectors continues to expand [3] - Analysts suggest that silver has reached its long-term target's minimum threshold, with potential for further increases, aiming for a target range of $75 to $80, contingent on market performance towards the end of the year [3] Group 2 - In the Asian trading session, silver prices rose nearly 3%, approaching $66.00, with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising to $63.28, indicating a positive short-term trend [4] - The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.16, nearing the overbought threshold, suggesting that momentum may weaken before the next upward movement [4] - Maintaining above the 20-period EMA will preserve the upward potential, while a drop below it could shift the bias to a downward trend, making the psychological level of $60.00 vulnerable [4]

持续的供应短缺，以及行业和投资者的强劲需求，罕见地结合在一起，支撑了这轮上涨。全球调查显 示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然受限，而可再生能源、电子产品和其他 工业部门的消费继续扩大。宏观因素也有影响。对宽松货币政策和实际收益率持续压缩的预期降低了持 有贵金属等非收益资产的机会成本，吸引了寻求多元化和通胀对冲的机构投资组合的兴趣。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 来源：金十数据 财经网站分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示，国际现货白银价格飙升至历史新高，不断变化的市场动态正推 动这种工业金属的表现远远超出历史常态。在今天早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上的，突 破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一。 ...