Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 11, 2025 [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,540 (domestic) and 9,639 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,470 (domestic) and 9,709 (LME) with a ratio of 8.08. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 15.62 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,480 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 7.99; March price is 22,520 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 5.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of - 1,883.64 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,611 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,614 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.49 with a profit of - 1,513.68 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 119,850 (domestic) and 14,946 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 1,763.36 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,700 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,850 (domestic) and 1,999 (LME) with a ratio of 11.26. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85 with a profit of - 692.53 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 20, 0, - 40 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 494, 887, 1288, 1689 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 30, - 25, - 55 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 459, 581 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 100, - 140, - 190 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 25, 50, 60 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 470, - 310, - 130, 150 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 710 with a theoretical spread of 5558 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 55 and - 15 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 155 and 596 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 35 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 101 and 232 (also 114 and 228 mentioned) [4][5]. - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 125 and 145 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 117 and 228 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.80, 4.66, 0.92, 1.23, 0.75 in Shanghai (triple - continuous) and 3.45, 3.74, 4.86, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 in London (triple - continuous) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene remain weak. In the second half of the year, with limited domestic demand growth, the downstream hard - rubber segment has limited incremental demand. However, in the short term, the structure of pure benzene has strengthened rapidly, and during the interval between the commissioning of downstream styrene plants and the slow release of new pure benzene plant production, pure benzene has strengthened periodically. Attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profits [3]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. With Brent crude oil rising to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. The reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In July, the planned maintenance loss was about 100,000 tons (Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical), and in August, it dropped to 40,000 tons. Pay attention to the commissioning of CNOOC Daxie on July 18 and the new plants such as Yulong Petrochemical (reforming + disproportionation), Jilin Petrochemical, Jingbo, and Hunan Petrochemical in August [3]. - **Pure benzene imports**: The US has imposed continuous tariffs on overseas, and the downstream plants in the US have restarted, leading to a stable rebound in the US pure benzene price. The refinery's operating rate has increased during the peak summer gasoline season, but the yield has been decreasing since July due to poor pure benzene economics. The profit of the STDP unit is negative. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The cracking profit in the European market is poor, and the load is expected to be reduced. The spot volume of pure benzene in Europe is limited, and factories are actively destocking and increasing contract volumes. About 30,000 tons of pure benzene were shipped from Europe to the US from May to June, and Europe imported more than 100,000 tons of styrene in June. The US - to - Europe EB window is currently closed from July to August. European downstream plants are planning a 2 - 3 - week seasonal maintenance in August. Pay attention to the opening of the pure benzene Europe/South Korea - to - US and styrene US - to - Europe windows [3]. - **Styrene**: Recently, there has been a significant increase in supply. Liaoning Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant has restarted, and new plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical's 680,000 - ton (August) and Jilin Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton (September) are about to be commissioned [3]. - **Caprolactam**: Hengyi's 300,000 - ton new plant in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be commissioned from August to September [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Phenol**: The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Yangnong is about to end. New plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton will be commissioned from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to be commissioned in October [3]. - **Aniline**: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted. Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new plant has been commissioned and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans a rotation maintenance from August to September [3]. - **Styrene downstream 3S hard rubber**: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. EPS has significantly reduced its load. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - to - high and shows resilience [3]. 3.3 Futures Contract - **Pure benzene futures contract rules**: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, etc. The initial trading margin standard is 8%, and the daily price limit is ±7%; on the listing day, it is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5900 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Delivery standards**: The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures follows the national standard 545, and the delivery systems include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash delivery. The delivery is mainly through factory warehouses, with warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualifications are for dangerous chemicals, and group - based delivery is adopted [10]. 3.4 Industry Trends - **2025 production and demand trends**: In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. In the second half of the year, domestic production supply will continue to increase, and the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total production of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [35]. - **Investment and commissioning**: In the second half of 2025, the commissioning of pure benzene downstream plants will gradually be implemented. From 2026 to 2027, the commissioning of styrene plants will still be relatively large [31][32]. 3.5 Product Structure and Profit - **Product structure change**: From the end of 2022 to May 2025, the proportion of styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, aniline, and phenol in the downstream of pure benzene has changed. The proportion of styrene has decreased, while the proportion of caprolactam has increased [63]. - **Profit situation**: The profit of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain shows a seesaw effect. The profit of downstream products such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol also fluctuates. The processing fee of styrene is relatively high in the near - term [36][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].

8月6日，焦煤期货延续涨势，截至发稿主力合约报1220.5元/吨，涨幅6.41%。 【消息面汇总】 8月6日临汾市场炼焦煤竞拍价格跌多涨少。截至目前统计到7家煤矿成交结果，其中4家出现流拍，仅1 家上涨，成交价平均跌幅约20元/吨。尧都区高硫主焦A11、S3、G92成交价950元/吨跌20元/吨，蒲县低 硫肥煤A11、S0.5、G90成交价1453元/吨跌22元/吨，乡宁高硫瘦煤A11、S3、G70成交价728元/吨涨13 元/吨。短期价格或将震荡运行。 本周统计314家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为36.2%，环比增1.19%；精煤日产26.0万吨，环比增0.6万 吨；精煤库存288.1万吨，环比增2.1万吨。 正信期货：昨日市场传闻山西煤矿要倒查1-6月超产情况，市场情绪提振，焦煤主力触及涨停，夜盘维 持涨势。焦炭方面，现货提涨落地五轮，但原料煤反弹，焦企盈利改善不明显，供应端变化不大。铁水 小幅下滑，尚在高位，刚需支撑较强。焦煤方面，煤矿生产端仍受限，蒙煤288口岸日通关车数恢复中 性偏高水平。下游采购节奏放缓，煤矿新签单减少，但因煤矿前期预售较多，基本无销售压力。综合来 看；反内卷预期反复，煤矿供应端扰动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term oversupply logic of lithium carbonate remains unchanged due to new projects in recent years, but short - term sentiment is highly volatile, with significant supply uncertainties and marginal improvements in supply - demand dynamics. LC prices are expected to remain in a wide - ranging consolidation pattern. It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread [1][5][59][63]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price Review and Four Changes 1.1 Price Review - Lithium prices this year have gone through three phases: a rebound before the Spring Festival due to bullish speculation and strong demand; a decline from February to May under the influence of factors like higher - than - expected supply, lowered demand forecasts, etc.; and a rebound since early June due to marginal improvements in fundamentals [12][13]. 1.2 Four Changes - **Macro Improvement**: Since 2025, as lithium prices entered the bottom range, macro factors have become more prominent. From April 2025, due to reciprocal tariffs, the influence of macro sentiment on lithium carbonate prices grew significantly, with R² jumping from near zero on April 7 to 0.8 by June and then easing to around 0.6. Since June, with eased US - China relations and stronger - than - expected demand resilience in some commodities, the market turned bullish and short positions in lithium carbonate were withdrawn [18][19][20]. - **Expected Temporary Supply Contraction**: The decline in lithium carbonate prices may lead to a reduction in China's lithium imports. From May to June, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China dropped sharply by 46% and 41% year - on - year respectively. Lithium ore imports also decreased from June, with a 18.1% year - on - year decline in June [24][25]. - **Off - Season Demand Slightly Exceeds Expectations**: Historically, lithium carbonate demand weakens in June and July. However, in 2025, cathode production in June and July is expected to increase month - on - month by 3.7% and 2.5% respectively, showing demand resilience [32][33]. - **Rapid Warehouse Receipt Reduction**: Since late March, futures' decline led to spot premiums. Due to lower prices this year, companies hedged less, and futures discounts weakened the willingness to deliver but increased the demand for warehouse receipt. After a concentrated cancellation in April, warehouse receipt started declining from late May, and by the end of June, it dropped to 22,000 tons. Low warehouse receipt levels may support futures prices [35][36][38]. 2. Key Influencing Factors - **Mine Issues**: Since mid - July, concerns over mine violations and license renewals have drawn market attention. Officially announced suspensions by Zangge Mining and Jiangte Motor have a limited output impact. However, issues like unqualified mining licenses and expiring permits in some mines may constraint about 25,000 tons/month and 14,000 tons/month of lithium supply respectively. If mines shut down, Q3 will see a supply gap and price rebound; if not, prices will return to fundamentals [40][41][43]. - **Sentiment Against "Involution - style" Competition**: Since early July, this sentiment has spread across commodities. The impact on lithium carbonate smelting is relatively limited, but on the mining side, it may raise standards and costs. In the short term, it may cause companies to cut lithium carbonate purchases; in the long run, it may improve industry margins and lead to slight price increases [45][46][47]. - **Warehouse Receipt Issue**: July is a month of concentrated cancellations, with low and declining warehouse receipt levels. As prices rise, more registrations are expected in August. However, with high open interest in the September contract, limited warehouse receipt increases in August may pose risks [49][55]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - In July - August, demand slightly exceeded expectations while imports fell short, likely maintaining a tight supply - demand equilibrium. If the peak season continues into September, a deficit of nearly 2,000 tons may emerge. Minor disruptions at major mines in August could cause a significant deficit, accelerating inventory drawdowns and price increases [56][57]. 4. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread (buy LC2509/sell LC2511) and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread (sell LC2511/buy LC2601). The September - November spread could widen if mine production cuts materialize, presenting a long - spread opportunity; otherwise, the spread volatility will narrow. The November - January period is the consumption low season, and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread is worth monitoring as it is less sensitive to mine production cuts, and the spread may return to below - 1,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][5][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 6, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,625, the LME spot price was 9,647, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of - 172.87. The domestic three - month price was 78,580, the LME three - month price was 9,715, and the ratio was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME spot price was 2,759, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.67 with a profit of - 1,611.98. The domestic three - month price was 22,390, the LME three - month price was 2,773, and the ratio was 6.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,520, the LME spot price was 2,574, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a profit of - 1,350.12. The domestic and LME three - month prices were both 20,530 and 2,574 respectively, and the ratio was 7.97 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,000, the LME spot price was 14,909, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.26 with a profit of - 2,154.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,525, the LME spot price was 1,927, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.87 with a profit of - 486.97. The domestic three - month price was 16,770, the LME three - month price was 1,969, and the ratio was 11.34 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 230, 230, 210, and 160 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 886, 1286, and 1687 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 120, 130, 125, and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 575 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 45, - 85, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 75, 70, 95, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 522 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 420, 570, 740, and 980 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 810, and the theoretical spread was 5552 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 245 and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 172 and 641 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 119 and 249 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 135 and 245 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.76, 4.88, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.72 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 4, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78370 in domestic and 9595 in LME with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 78390 in domestic and 9645 in LME with a ratio of 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.19 with a profit of - 18.16; spot export profit is - 12.21 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22310 in domestic and 2740 in LME with a ratio of 8.14; March price is 22330 in domestic and 2751 in LME with a ratio of 6.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.68 with a profit of - 1484.30 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20520 in domestic and 2572 in LME with a ratio of 7.98; March price is 20465 in domestic and 2575 in LME with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1364.15 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118650 in domestic and 14742 in LME with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.27 with a profit of - 1639.80 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16450 in domestic and 1925 in LME with a ratio of 8.60; March price is 16745 in domestic and 1967 in LME with a ratio of 11.37. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.88 with a profit of - 549.50 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 290, 230, 200 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 493, 883, 1283, 1682 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 25, - 30, - 55 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, 577 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 115, - 160, - 210 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 295, 305, 325, 280 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 414, 517 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 770, 900, 1160, 1400 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1150 and the theoretical spread is 5510 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 205 and 95 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 230 and 707 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 45 and 10 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 136 and 250 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 10 and 285 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 122 and 233 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of沪（三连） for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.51, 3.83, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, 0.75 respectively; the ratios of伦（三连） are 3.53, 3.75, 4.88, 0.94, 1.30, 0.72 respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash's main contract fluctuated significantly in July, with expectations of a weak adjustment in August due to macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1] Price Fluctuation - In July, the main soda ash contract experienced amplified price volatility influenced by external sentiment and market emotions [1] - Early in the month, optimistic expectations regarding anti-involution policies led to a rapid price increase, but by the end of July, weaker-than-expected macro policies cooled market sentiment, causing prices to decline [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash production load decreased month-on-month, but downstream purchasing intentions remained weak, resulting in soft terminal demand [1] - Both industry inventory and delivery inventory increased month-on-month, indicating significant absolute inventory pressure [1] - The upcoming supply side is expected to show limited contraction, while new capacity releases will gradually reveal supply pressure in the future [1] - Demand may also contract, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, leading to further pressure on the market [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - External sentiment continues to impact prices, with expectations of a high probability of weak adjustments in the soda ash market in August [1] - The logic of the 09 contract transitioning to physical delivery is under pressure due to tight delivery inventory and difficulties in spot sales [1] - Currently, the price difference between SA09 and SA01 is weak, and further weakening is limited after the main contract shifts [1]

期货热点追踪 美国铜进口关税豁免后，COMEX与LME价差一夜归零！套利空间还有吗？ 相关链接 ...