Economic Commentary - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is perceived as masking economic pain rather than reporting reality [1] - GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a primary metric atomizes humans into economic units, neglecting the standard of living and individual flourishing [1] - The share of young adults living with parents has reached levels not seen since the Great Depression [2]

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s a flying taxi! @JNBPage and @sarah_wu_ examine China’s plan to “draw GDP from the sky”, on “Drum Tower” https://t.co/DpbIxVN5hq ...

Economic Overview - Year-over-year inflation is reported at 2.9%, which remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - Recent economic data shows a decrease in the trade deficit and strong durable goods reports, leading forecasters to raise GDP estimates for the third quarter [2] Inflation Insights - Inflation is considered tame based on month-over-month data, although tariffs are expected to create a temporary increase in inflation [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is advised to look beyond tariff-induced price increases, as these do not reflect genuine demand in the economy [4] GDP Projections - The Atlanta Fed has increased its GDP estimate for the third quarter to the high 3% range, while Goldman Sachs projects mid-2% growth, indicating decent but not excessive growth [9] - The first half of the year saw GDP growth under 2%, with the first quarter being negative [9] Retail and Consumer Spending - The upcoming fourth quarter is critical for assessing the impact of tariffs on consumer spending, particularly during the holiday season when retail firms typically generate significant profits [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in the next two meetings [11][13] - Payroll growth has significantly decreased, with estimates for the upcoming employment report suggesting only 50,000 new jobs, compared to previous estimates of 150,000 to 300,000 [12]

Ask Wharton School professor of finance and wisdom chief economist Jeremy Seagull. Uh, Professor Seagull, what was your take on on the report today. Obviously came in line as expected, but year-over-year inflation at the headline up 2.9% still above the Fed's target rate.>> Yeah, most certainly. But but the news was good. It hit all the targets.Uh, nothing no upside uh surprise and and yesterday strong strong economic data. I think that uh both on the the trade deficit going down and on the durable goods re ...

But is the data reflecting the inflationary impact of tariffs. Let's discuss with Joe Leavourne, counselor to Treasury Secretary uh Bessant and here on set with me. It's great to see you, Joe. >> Great to be here.Thank you. >> All right, so inflation data that we got this morning. Core PCE basically in line with the month prior and actually we saw the month before that revised lower as well.What is that telling us. >> Actually, I like to look at the goods piece because that's where the tariffs would show up ...

It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, director and fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. Very good morning to you, Colin.Happy Friday. So, no surprises there from the PCE data. Does that set us up for two more cuts.>> Uh, we're not sure just yet. You know, if we look at this morning's release, no surprises, I think, is a good thing. We're looking to make sure we're not seeing any reaceleration or significant reaceleration in inflation right now.So even th ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 加拿大7月GDP环比升0.2%，前值降0.1%。加拿大7月GDP同比升0.9%，前值升0.9%。 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, similar to gold, a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tonight's PCE inflation data and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - The US second - quarter GDP was significantly revised up to a 3.8% increase, the highest in two years, with the previous value at 3.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] Fed Officials' Speeches - Fed Governor Bowman believes that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation. This year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thinks the more the balance sheet shrinks, the better. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is a bit worried about excessive early rate cuts based on the slowdown in employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also believes that it is too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [2]

Group 1 - The final Q2 GDP showed one of the largest upward revisions in recent years, indicating the strongest growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by consumer spending [1][3] - The contraction in the first quarter was attributed to higher imports as companies stockpiled goods ahead of new tariffs, but the positive Q2 results were not solely due to a decline in imports [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure rose by 2.5% in Q2, significantly higher than the second estimate of 1.6%, suggesting that concerns about a downturn in the USA may be premature [3] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims on 25 September were significantly lower than consensus, indicating a potentially stronger job market than previously perceived [4] - The likelihood of a Fed rate cut on 29 October remains high at around 85%, but the probability of cuts at future meetings has decreased by over 20% compared to the previous week [5] - The euro-dollar has declined recently as sentiment on the dollar improved, supported by the upward revision to GDP and lower initial jobless claims [7]