新华社北京12月26日电（记者王雨萧）国家统计局26日发布关于2024年国内生产总值最终核实的公告， 经最终核实，2024年，GDP现价总量为1348066亿元，比初步核算数减少1018亿元；按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0％，与初步核算数持平。 GDP是国民经济核算的核心指标，也是衡量一个国家经济状况和发展水平的重要指标。按照我国GDP核 算和数据发布制度规定，年度GDP核算包括初步核算和最终核实两个步骤。近日，根据国家统计局统计 年报、财政部财政决算和有关部门年度财务资料等，国家统计局对2024年GDP数据进行了最终核实。 （来源：邯郸日报） 转自：邯郸日报 ...

（据新华社电） （文章来源：证券时报） ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Friday following a higher close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing a decrease [1][2] - The Dow Jones futures fell by 0.12%, S&P 500 by 0.06%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.06%, and Russell 2000 by 0.27% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) decreased by 0.029% to $690.18, while Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell by 0.014% to $623.84 in premarket trading [2] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending Dec. 20, better than market expectations of 223,000 [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.15%, and the two-year bond yield was at 3.51% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January [2] Company Highlights - Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ:DVAX) shares surged by 38.19% following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccines company [5] - Davis Commodities Ltd. (NASDAQ:DTCK) reported revenue of $95 million for the six months ending June 30, a 42.1% increase from $66.9 million a year earlier, leading to a 7.19% rise in its shares [4] - Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose by 0.58% after announcing a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq [5] - Sobr Safe Inc. (NASDAQ:SOBR) shares dropped by 15.61% after announcing a private placement of 1.29 million shares at $1.55 per share [5][6] - Biohaven Ltd. (NYSE:BHVN) shares fell by 14.06% after its Phase 2 study of BHV-7000 in major depressive disorder failed to meet its primary endpoint [13] Analyst Insights - University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers criticized the media's focus on record stock numbers, stating that U.S. markets are up 18% but lag behind global markets, which have risen by 30% [9][10] - Wolfers highlighted a disconnect between GDP growth of over 4% and a more modest Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth of 2.4%, suggesting potential job creation stagnation [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.18% from 6.21% last week, down from 6.85% a year ago [1] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.5% from 5.47% last week [7] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3%, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [5] - The consumer price index rose 0.2% in November from the prior month and increased 2.7% year-over-year, both figures lower than economists' projections [6] Labor Market - Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [7] Market Outlook - Higher inventory levels compared to last year may provide buyers with a better rate environment entering the new year [9] - If mortgage rates stabilize or decrease slightly, buyers could experience increased purchasing power in 2026, following two slow housing years [10]

Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]

Labor Market Insights - The labor market appears to be stable with minimal layoffs reported, indicating a contained environment [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits are showing a downward trend, suggesting that unemployed individuals are finding jobs [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to around 4.4% in the upcoming December report, despite recent fluctuations influenced by government shutdowns [3] Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a weaker trend in growth, inflation, and the labor market, with recent data reflecting lower sales, activity, and investment [5][6] - Consumer confidence has not rebounded, and sentiment remains low due to the impact of the government shutdown [8] - Inflation data is anticipated to rise, particularly with a rebound in rent inflation, leading to a higher overall inflation environment [9] Future Economic Outlook - There is an expectation that economic growth will begin to pick up, with a potential shift in narrative regarding the economy in Q1 [10]

中金研报指出，美国2025年第三季度实际GDP环比折年率升至4.3%，超出市场预期。从分项来看，强 劲的消费支出与AI相关的设备投资需求对增长贡献较大，而传统行业投资（如建筑类与房地产）则持 续表现低迷，显示经济内部"冷热不均"的分化格局加剧。进口连续两个季度下降，表明在年初"抢进 口"过后，企业整体已放慢进口节奏。尽管这份GDP数据较为滞后，但其表现出的韧性或将打压短期内 降息的呼声。中金维持美联储1月将按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 exceeded expectations, with an initial annualized rate of 4.3%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous quarter's final value of 3.8% [4] - Personal consumption expenditures rose from 2.5% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q3, surpassing the expected 2.7% [4] - Exports increased significantly by 8.8%, while imports decreased by 4.7% [4] Industry Insights Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures at $4,515 per ounce (up 1.02%) and silver at $71.61 per ounce (up 4.44%) [7] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the U.S. government [7] Medical Supplies - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been officially launched, including drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables, with bidding set for January 13, 2026 [8] - The introduction of anchor pricing and a multi-repetition mechanism is expected to prevent malicious competition, although significant price declines are anticipated [8] Automotive Industry - Retail data for January-November 2025 shows that major brands like BYD, Volkswagen, and Toyota dominate the market, with the top ten brands holding a combined market share of 51.7% [10] - The competitive landscape remains fragmented, with ongoing price wars likely due to the lack of a dominant market structure [10] - Demand resilience in the battery supply chain is noted, but profitability will depend on product structure and bargaining power [10] Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning industry experienced a significant decline in production and sales in November, with production and sales down approximately 37% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The decline is attributed to high base effects from previous government subsidy policies and abnormal weather conditions [12] - A cautious outlook is maintained for the industry, with production plans for January 2026 indicating a year-on-year increase of about 21% [12]