Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has risen into the expansion zone, indicating robust economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has improved significantly, reaching its highest level in nearly a month[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index has notably increased, driven by policy support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Inflation and Prices - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the seasonal level by 0.1 percentage points, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024[2] - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and fell by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting pressures from high temperatures and international trade uncertainties[2] Global Economic Trends - In the U.S., the July CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations[5] - The U.S. PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since February 2025[6] - The UK GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, driven mainly by the services sector[5]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the Bank of Japan's hawkish signals and the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a strengthening of the Japanese yen [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - As of August 18, the USD/JPY is trading around 147, with a current quote of 147.50, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - The USD/JPY is at a critical technical level, with support seen at 147.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 145.80-146.00 (50-day and 100-day moving averages) [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2025 high/low) [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan's July policy meeting indicated a hawkish stance, raising inflation expectations and keeping the option for rate hikes within the year [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Bank of Japan for its "policy lag," urging for rate hikes to combat inflation pressures [1] - Market analysis suggests that Japan's weak consumer recovery and potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles may lead the Bank of Japan to maintain a cautious approach [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, impacting the USD/JPY dynamics [1] - The market is currently assessing the interplay between the normalization of Japanese monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's policy shift [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - US President Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and threatens to consider a major lawsuit against Fed Chairman Powell over cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to lower rates, stating he is only discussing neutral interest rate models [1] - The Federal Reserve has terminated the "new activity supervision program" established in 2023, which was aimed at enhancing regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities, continuing the trend of relaxed regulation in the crypto industry [1] - Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 regarding economic outlook and Fed policy framework assessment [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, marking the third rate cut this year [2] - The Bank of Thailand lowers its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, with a unanimous vote, citing expected economic growth and low inflation [3] - The Bank of Canada decides to maintain its current monetary policy due to trade uncertainties and economic resilience, with some officials believing current rate cuts are sufficient to address the mild impact of tariffs on consumer prices [2] - The Bank of Japan considers shifting focus from "potential inflation" indicators to overall inflation rates and expectations, which may pave the way for a rate hike in October [2] - The Norwegian central bank indicates that policy rates may be adjusted more quickly if inflation returns to target levels faster than expected or if unemployment rises more than anticipated [2] - The Turkish central bank continues to implement tight policies despite a decrease in inflation expectations, stating that exchange rate policies will not change [2] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the US stock market experienced a style switch following the July CPI release, reminiscent of the "rate cut trade" seen after the June CPI release in 2024 [6] - Barclays analysts note that the nomination of Stephen Moore as a potential new Fed governor could influence future Fed policy direction, raising market concerns [6] - BlackRock analysts suggest that the latest US inflation report alleviates concerns and supports a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with some bets on a significant cut [6] - Goldman Sachs believes the European Central Bank's rate cut cycle has ended, predicting three rate cuts from the Fed this year and two next year, totaling a 125 basis point reduction [7]

Group 1: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is more severe than the same period last year, necessitating interest rate cuts to counteract a significant slowdown in economic growth expected after 2025[2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points over the past year, but further cuts may be limited due to the current economic conditions[4] - The downward trend in hard data in the U.S. is likely to continue, and Powell's stance at the Jackson Hole meeting will be crucial[4] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - There is skepticism about Powell providing clear guidance on the interest rate cut path at the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 25 basis point cut in September facing resistance[2] - The decision for a September rate cut will depend heavily on the August non-farm payroll data, particularly the unemployment rate and revisions to previous employment figures[2] - If the August non-farm report shows a stable unemployment rate and upward revisions, Powell may have sufficient reasons to reject a September rate cut[21] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a rate cut may be overly optimistic, especially if data does not consistently point towards a clear monetary policy direction[27] - Risks include increased uncertainty from Trump's policies, which could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[28] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected levels of synchronized easing, potentially alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[28]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis points (0.25%) cut in September [1] - Lower interest rates could positively impact growth stocks like Tesla by reducing the discount rate applied to future potential and lowering financing costs for consumers [1] - A looser monetary environment benefits capital-intensive projects like Tesla's expansion, Optimus robot, and SpaceX's Starship program [1] Government Policy & Infrastructure - The Trump administration, despite initial opposition to green energy subsidies, aims to improve the deployment of electric vehicle charging infrastructure [1] - The previous Biden administration's NEVI program faced challenges, with 84% of funds unutilized due to overly strict requirements [1] - The Trump administration plans to streamline regulations to accelerate the construction of charging stations, potentially benefiting companies like Tesla with established charging networks [1] Electric Vehicle Safety & Public Perception - A truck fire involving eight Tesla vehicles highlighted the issue of public perception and bias regarding electric vehicle safety [2] - Data indicates that gasoline vehicles have a significantly higher fire incident rate (1530 per 100,000 vehicles) compared to electric vehicles (25 per 100,000 vehicles) [2] - Hybrid vehicles have the highest fire incident rate at 3475 per 100,000 vehicles [2]

Group 1 - The focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will deliver a significant speech at the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this Friday [3] - Wall Street anticipates the Fed may restart interest rate cuts in September due to previous economic disruptions caused by tariffs and pressure from the White House [3] - Powell may not provide clear guidance this time, as inflation remains above the 2% target and tariffs complicate the situation [3] Group 2 - The recent trading activity in London gold shows a breakthrough above $3340 per ounce, with a 0.37% increase, indicating active market participation [4] - Algorithmic trading and speculative buying triggered a short-term upward momentum after prices touched around $3323 [4] - Trading volume is estimated to be in the range of 25 million to 35 million ounces [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations, with the year - on - year PPI at 3.3%, the month - on - month PPI at 0.9%, and the month - on - month import price index at 0.4%. Fed officials have different views on inflation, and the Trump administration's selection of the new Fed chair has influenced their statements [2]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium on August 22. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting with a probability of 92.1%, and also prices in another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed chair, which may further boost the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to wait for Powell's statement. If it is dovish, consider going long on gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On August 18, Shanghai Gold fell 0.01% to 775.08 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.10% to 9217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.13% to 38.02 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index was 97.85 [2]. - For other market data on August 18, such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., specific closing prices, changes, and percentage changes are provided [4]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on August 15, COMEX Gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory had different changes compared to the previous day, with the closing price down 0.02%, trading volume down 28.99%, open interest down 0.78%, and inventory down 0.02%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators like LBMA Gold, SHFE Gold, and Au(T + D) are also presented [6]. - For silver on August 15, COMEX Silver's closing price, open interest, and inventory had changes, with the closing price down 0.04%, open interest down 3.00%, and inventory up 0.11%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators like LBMA Silver, SHFE Silver, and Ag(T + D) are also provided [6]. 3.3 Charts and Their Information - Multiple charts show the relationships between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure. For example, there are charts of COMEX Gold price vs. the US dollar index, COMEX Gold price vs. real interest rates, etc. [11][12] - There are also charts showing the near - far month structures of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, and related spreads, as well as similar charts for silver [20][21][37][38] - Charts about the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX Gold and Silver and their prices are presented [40] - Charts of the total holdings of Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs are provided [47] - Charts of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver, including their MA5 and seasonal patterns, are shown [50][51][57]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies, initially celebrated as a success, have led to significant stock market declines, undermining his claims of economic improvement [1][5][10] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff diplomacy has caused dissatisfaction among various countries, with tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% imposed by allies and other nations [3] - The ongoing negotiations with China are complicated by China's control over rare earth materials, making it difficult for Trump to achieve a decisive victory in tariff negotiations [3][9] - The recent stock market crash, including a 0.74% drop in the Dow Jones and a significant decline in the Nasdaq, is closely linked to Trump's tariff policies [5][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The tariffs have led to rising domestic prices and increased business costs in the U.S., contributing to weakened consumer and employment power [8] - Despite Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the Fed has not complied, leading to increased pressure on the U.S. economy [8] - Job growth has fallen short of expectations, with only 70,000 new jobs added in July compared to the anticipated 100,000 [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Trump is unlikely to abandon his tariff strategy, viewing it as essential for economic recovery and political leverage, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [9][10] - The effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, particularly in dealing with a powerful economy like China, which is prepared for ongoing economic competition [9][10] - The long-term success of Trump's tariff strategy will be influenced by the overall direction of the U.S. economy and global economic changes [10]

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]