今日周四(10月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于47.42一线上方，今日开盘于47.51美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报47.51美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储正在密切关注可能正在恶化的就业市场状况，因为低收 入家庭正出现更多压力迹象。鲍威尔指出，对于近期裁员公告数量上升的情况，"我们正在非常仔细地 关注"，因为这可能会削弱就业创造能力。 不过他补充说，目前这些裁员公告尚未导致失业救济申请数量上升。他还表示："我们认为确实存在这 样一种情况——高收入家庭的状况良好、支出强劲，而其他群体则正面临日益严峻的挑战。 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。 事实上，远非如此。"这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照预设路径 ...

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息远未成定局，并指 出，美国政府"停摆"将"对经济活动造成影响"。 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25% 10月30日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%，即时生效。 | 公布时间 | 指标周期 | 预测值 | 前值 | 公布值 | 变动值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-30 07:00 | 截至2025年10月30日 | | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.25 | | 2025-09-18 08:00 | 截至2025年9月18日 | | 4.75 | 4.5 | -0.25 | | 2025-07-31 07:00 | 截至2025年7月31日 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-06-19 07:00 | 截至2025年6月19日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-05-08 07:00 | 截至2025年5月8日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-03-20 09:00 | 截至2025年3月20日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25% 中国基金报记者 张舟 10 月 30 日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25% ，即时生效。 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨 2 点，美联储宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率从 4.00% ～ 4.25% 降至 3.75% ～ 4.00% ，符合市场预期。同时，美联储决定从 12 月 1 日开始停止 缩表。 香港金管局宣布： 降息 25 个基点 | 公布时间 | 指标周期 | 预测值 | 前值 | 公布值 | 变动值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-30 07:00 | 截至2025年10月30日 | | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.25 | | 2025-09-18 08:00 | 截至2025年9月18日 | | 4.75 | 4.5 | -0.25 | | 2025-07-31 07:00 | 截至2025年7月31日 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-06-19 07:00 | 截至 ...

Group 1 - The market indicates that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in December, with no rate cuts expected for the year [1] - The Fed's focus in November will remain on stabilizing employment due to rising job risks, despite dovish comments from Powell [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as temporary, with expectations for future price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, following a previous cut in September. This decision reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was widely anticipated by the market, despite internal disagreements among officials regarding the extent of the cut [3]. - Two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut, with one advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to expedite policy easing [3]. - The Fed's internal divisions between hawkish and dovish perspectives are becoming more pronounced, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Recent indicators align with these trends [4]. - The latest data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [4]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests the possibility of three rate cuts within the year, with December potentially being the last opportunity for a cut [4]. - Following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut diminished significantly [5].

美联储如期降息25基点并宣布12月1日起停止缩表（避免当前流动性有所收紧下重现2019年“钱荒”），此前市场已对此充分计价，焦点更多集中在后续降息路径上。本次会议偏鹰派。鲍威尔表示美联储内部对12月份是否继续降息分歧加大，越来越多的人认为或许应该等待一次。市场对此反应剧烈，美债利率大幅走高近10基点、美元同样冲高、美股与黄金调整。经过9月和10月接连两次降息后，利率已有所调整来应对“已知”的就业压力，但政府关门停摆无法提供更多新增经济信息，所以鲍威尔担心“盲飞”前进太快，适得其反。所以从这点看，美联储似乎有理由和动力12月暂停降息，观察后续变化。预计在短期内，政府关门的影响会使市场对继续让“宽松交易”受挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive approach [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was influenced by the lack of updated macroeconomic data due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) on December 1 [1] - The current economic indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with a slight increase in unemployment and rising inflation rates [2] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty about future rate cuts [2] - The dot plot from September indicated the possibility of three rate cuts this year, suggesting December could be the last cut [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments indicated that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting significant internal disagreement on future policy actions [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's hawkish remarks, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.55% and the Dow Jones down 0.16% [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut diminished after Powell's statements, highlighting the impact of the government shutdown on economic data availability [3]