"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文指出，无论结果如何，美联储12月会议至少可能出现三张反对票—— 如果决定维持利率不变，特朗普任命的三位理事将投反对票；如果美联储降息25个基点，也至少会有三 人异议。 在缺乏新经济数据指导复杂决策的情况下，美联储官员们正面临一项挑战：解决利率设定方面的分歧。 "风险平衡的演变凸显出降息需循序渐进的必要性，"杰斐逊在堪萨斯城联储的一次讲话中表示。 除了这一观点，杰斐逊的言论既未支持长期暂停降息，也未为下月会议降息提供依据——这一决策正变 得异常具争议性。 作为美联储领导层成员，杰斐逊通常会强化主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的观点，鲍威尔预计 将在调和下月分裂的政策制定委员会方面发挥关键作用。 近几周，市场对美联储在12月9日至10日会议上降息的预期稳步下降，这在没有重大经济指标发布的时 期实属罕见。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）数据显示，周一早盘，市场隐含的降息概率约为45%，低于一周前的 60%，也低于10月28日至29日会议时的90%。 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）周一用实例展现了该央行的困境，他承认 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a further interest rate cut at the December meeting due to a weakening labor market and the pressure high interest rates are placing on middle- and low-income households [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Waller emphasizes that continuing to lower rates is a form of "good risk management" in the current economic environment [1] - He notes that with core inflation nearing the FOMC target and signs of weakness in the labor market, he supports a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting [1] - The upcoming September non-farm payroll report is unlikely to change his view on the need for another rate cut [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Household Impact - Waller highlights that high mortgage and auto loan costs are straining American household budgets [1] - Despite the stock market reaching new highs due to optimism around AI, this has not translated into job growth [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Waller's stance reflects a division within the FOMC, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation while others are wary of the risks posed by a weakening labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month in response to labor market weakness [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped from nearly 100% to about 40% following hawkish comments from several officials [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, leading to pending economic data that may impact market participants and the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The September U.S. employment report is expected to show an addition of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, despite previous data indicating a weak job market [3][4] - If the employment data is significantly weak, it could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar and an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the dollar index potentially testing the support level of 98.57 [3] Group 2 - The U.K. economy is under scrutiny due to stagnation, with GDP data for September and Q3 falling short of expectations, reinforcing market expectations for further monetary easing by the Bank of England [5][6] - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee recently voted 5 to 4 to maintain the base rate at 4.0%, indicating a split between hawkish and dovish members [5][6] - Upcoming inflation reports in the U.K. are critical, with the core CPI expected to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6%, and the core CPI from 3.5% to 3.4%, which may influence market expectations for interest rate cuts [7]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has not significantly worsened during the longest government shutdown in history, according to Wall Street economists, who base their views on limited information, particularly weekly unemployment claims [1][3] - During the 43-day government shutdown, initial unemployment claims remained low, with estimates showing 218,000 claims in the last week before the shutdown and 228,000 in the most recent week [3][4] - Economists believe that the labor market has not experienced a sharp deterioration, despite a slowdown in hiring activity since spring [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The low layoff rate is crucial for the ongoing economic expansion, with the unemployment rate remaining below historical averages, previously at 4.3% before the shutdown [3][4] - However, hiring has nearly stalled, making it more difficult for job seekers, although low unemployment rates may still support consumer confidence and spending [4][5] - Structural changes in the labor market, such as the retirement of the baby boomer generation and a decrease in immigration, are contributing to the slowdown in hiring [5] Inflation Concerns - Inflation pressures remain high, with the annual inflation rate at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% and nearly double the average inflation rate from 2010 to 2019 [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may not yet be fully realized, and persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during its December meeting [6][7] - The dual pressures of a tightening labor market and high inflation are affecting the economy, particularly impacting middle- and low-income households [6] Dollar Impact Analysis - In the short term, persistent inflation expectations may support the dollar, but medium-term pressures are accumulating, with the dollar's trajectory dependent on the interplay between inflation resilience and economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.08% to around 99.35, indicating market reactions to inflation and employment data [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on job markets, particularly focusing on the decline of entry-level positions and the overall employment landscape [6][11][12] - It highlights a significant decrease in job postings, with a projected 8% drop in global job postings from 2024 to 2025, indicating a contraction in the job market [11][12] Job Market Trends - The analysis of 180 million job postings reveals that certain positions have seen a drastic decline, particularly in creative fields such as CG artists, photographers, and writers, with declines of up to 22% for journalists and 21% for brand public relations [14][16] - Conversely, management positions, especially in creative roles, have shown resilience or growth, with creative directors and managers experiencing an upward trend [18][20] Position Performance - The top ten growing positions include roles such as software engineering directors and machine learning engineers, with the latter seeing a remarkable increase of 39.62% [24][25] - Senior leadership roles have been less affected, with a decline of only 1.7%, while entry-level positions have decreased by 9%, indicating a widening gap in job opportunities for new graduates [30][31] Implications for New Graduates - The article emphasizes the struggles faced by recent graduates in securing entry-level positions, as many traditional roles have diminished, leading to a sense of despair among young job seekers [39][40][44] - The narrative illustrates a shift in hiring practices, where companies prefer experienced individuals combined with AI capabilities over investing in training new employees [45][46] Cultural and Educational Impact - The traditional apprenticeship model, which has been a cornerstone of skill development, is being undermined by AI's efficiency, leading to a potential loss of craftsmanship and innovation [56][80] - The story of a young carpenter symbolizes the broader issue of losing the experiential learning process that fosters creativity and innovation, as AI takes over repetitive tasks [58][66][80]

Group 1 - Dallas Fed President Logan issued a strong hawkish signal, opposing further rate cuts in December unless there is compelling evidence of declining inflation or a significant cooling in the labor market [1] - Logan emphasized that current inflation remains too high and is declining slower than expected, advocating for a slightly restrictive policy to ensure sufficient economic restraint [1] - In contrast, Fed Governor Milan argued that recent data supports further rate cuts, citing weakening inflation and labor market conditions [1] Group 2 - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt joined the hawkish camp, warning that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's inflation credibility and that recent labor market weakness is due to structural factors [2] - Schmidt expressed concerns about inflation pressures from various sectors, advocating for stable rates and opposing recent rate cuts [2] - He also supported ending the balance sheet reduction process in December while suggesting measures to keep the Fed's balance sheet as small and non-distorting as possible [2] Group 3 - Boston Fed President Collins stated that rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a weak labor market [3] - Other hawkish officials, including those from Chicago and Cleveland Feds, echoed similar sentiments, cautioning against further rate cuts [3] - Support for rate cuts came from officials like Milan, Miann, Waller, and Bowman, indicating a divided stance within the Fed [3]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims for the week of November 1st were reported at 228,000, indicating stability in the job market, although this figure is on the higher side compared to recent numbers [2][4] - Continuing claims decreased by 18,000 for the week of October 25th, but remain elevated at 31,000, the highest level since 2019, suggesting ongoing challenges in the labor market [2][5] - The data does not currently reflect the significant layoffs announced by major companies, which may lead to job losses over time but have not yet translated into increased jobless claims [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal jobless claims were reported at 7,500, down from 10,000 the previous week, indicating some improvement in federal employment [5] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish members are interpreting the low jobless claims as a sign of stabilization in the job market, which may influence their stance on inflation and interest rates [5][6] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates multiple times in upcoming meetings, with a 52% probability for December and a 73% probability for January [6]

波士顿联储主席柯林斯于周三的演讲表达了对短期内进一步降息的审慎立场。他表示"从我的基本判断 来看，为了在当前高度不确定的环境中平衡通胀和就业风险，将政策利率维持在现有水平一段时间或许 是合适的。我认为，有几个理由让我们对短期内进一步放宽政策设置一个相对较高的门槛。" 10月FOMC会议，柯林斯曾支持将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，但她当时已暗 示这应是短期调整的终点。如今更明确的认为当前金融环境仍对经济构成"顺风"，过度宽松反而可能逆 转抗通胀成果。 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，12月降息25个基点的概率已降至59.4%。 通胀的顽固性风险，尽管住房通胀呈回落态势，但受关税推动的商品价格上涨已形成抵消效应，核心通 胀年化增速仍维持在3.6%的高位，远高于美联储2%的目标线。这种风险在需求仍具韧性的背景下更需 警惕。 柯林斯承认就业市场"疲软值得关注"，但通过美联储联络网络收集的信息显示，自夏季以来就业下行风 险并未加剧。这种"弱而不崩"的状态让她认为，无需通过激进降息提振就业。 尽管政府停摆僵局已结束，但白宫确认10月核心通胀与就业报告可能无法发布。柯林斯直言，劳工统计 局连9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]

2025.11.14 本文字数：1443，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间11月13日，多位美联储官员先后发声，为市场迅速升温的降息预期"泼冷水"。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策 过度宽松。 同一天内，其他地区联储主席也释放了类似信号。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，利率政策目前仍应保持在"限制性区 间"，以继续对仍高于目标的通胀施加下行压力；明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）则称，约3%的通胀"仍然偏高"，部分劳 动力市场指标已经显露压力迹象，不宜过快放松。 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）也提到，在今年已两次降息之后，美联储在"充分就业"和"物价稳定"这两大目标之间的风险大致重新回 到平衡状态，但服务业通胀尚未出现持续回落，市场对进一步宽松的预期需要更克制一些。 Crossmark公司首席执行官兼首席投资官鲍勃·多尔（Bob Doll）在评论中提到，市场对降息寄予厚望，但从美联储官员的最新表态来看，"更多是 一 ...