证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor leader Zhongwei Company (688012) announced a share reduction plan by major shareholders, including its founder and chairman Yin Zhiyao, for personal management needs and tax-related reasons [1][5]. Shareholder Reduction Plans - Xunxin (Shanghai) Investment Co., Ltd. holds 68.4739 million shares, accounting for 10.94% of the total share capital, and plans to reduce its holdings by up to 12.5229 million shares (2% of total share capital) within three months after the announcement [1]. - Yin Zhiyao plans to reduce his holdings by up to 290,000 shares (0.046% of total share capital) through centralized bidding within three months after the announcement, citing the need to handle tax matters after restoring his Chinese nationality [1][5]. Company Performance - As of January 9, Zhongwei Company's stock price was 336.68 yuan per share, with a total market value of 210.8 billion yuan. The estimated market value of Yin Zhiyao's planned share reduction is approximately 9.764 million yuan [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongwei Company achieved an operating income of 8.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.66% [8]. Leadership Background - Yin Zhiyao, born in 1944, has a distinguished educational and professional background, including a bachelor's degree from the University of Science and Technology of China and a Ph.D. from UCLA. He has held significant positions in major semiconductor companies before founding Zhongwei Company [3][5]. - Under Yin Zhiyao's leadership, Zhongwei Company has made significant technological advancements, including the development of the first domestic plasma etching equipment and achieving high precision in semiconductor manufacturing [8].

Market Overview - On January 9, US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.18%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.07% [1] - Most popular Chinese stocks opened lower, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.4%, and Alibaba, Netease, Xpeng Motors, and iQIYI down over 2% [1] - Chip stocks saw a general increase, with ASML up over 3%, Applied Materials up over 2%, and Intel, Broadcom, and Micron Technology up over 1% [1] - OKLO's stock surged 17% due to a nuclear agreement with Meta, while VISTRA rose 16% [1] Company News - Apple is reportedly accelerating the selection process for CEO Tim Cook's successor, with John Ternus, the current Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, emerging as the top candidate [2] - Tim Cook, aged 65, has expressed a desire to reduce his workload and may step down as CEO this year, potentially transitioning to the role of Chairman of the Board [2] - TSMC announced a 31.6% year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue for 2025, with December revenue at approximately NT$335 billion, a 20.4% increase year-on-year [3] - BMW Group reported a 0.5% year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries for 2025, totaling 2,463,715 units, with electric vehicle deliveries reaching 642,087 units, an 8.3% increase [4] - Google Cloud's marketing VP Alison Wagonfeld announced her departure to join NVIDIA as Chief Marketing Officer at the end of January [5]

Group 1 - The market shows resilience, achieving a 15-day consecutive rise despite initial declines, indicating potential for further growth [1] - The current market sentiment is driven by the commercial aerospace sector, with key emotional anchors being航发 and胜通, which significantly influence market dynamics [1] - The performance of航发 and胜通 will be critical in shaping market sentiment in the coming days, necessitating close monitoring [1] Group 2 - The commercial aerospace sector saw 24 stocks hitting the daily limit up, reflecting a strategy of high sell-low buy and low-position recovery [2] - Other sectors such as brain-machine interfaces, intelligent driving, robotics, and nuclear power are experiencing rotation, benefiting from the overall positive market sentiment [2] - The potential for a return to previously performing themes exists as long as the market remains favorable, providing opportunities for bottom-fishing investors [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Chinese semiconductor design company, Montage Technology, plans to conduct a secondary listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise between $800 million to $1 billion, which would mark the largest IPO in Hong Kong since September last year [1] - Montage Technology has already passed the listing hearing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and is expected to list on January 26, although the timeline is not yet finalized [1] - The surge in IPO activities for AI and semiconductor companies in Hong Kong and mainland China is driven by the country's push to enhance domestic technological capabilities and reduce reliance on U.S. technology [1] Group 2 - Montage Technology, established in 2004, specializes in fabless integrated circuit design, focusing on improving data transmission speeds between chips in servers and data centers [2] - The company was previously listed on NASDAQ in September 2013, raising $71 million, but was privatized a year later by a state-owned investment firm [2] - As of now, Montage Technology has a market capitalization of approximately $22 billion, with its stock price nearly doubling over the past year [2] - According to the company's prospectus, it is projected to hold a 36.8% market share in the global memory interconnect chip market by 2024 [2] - For the fiscal year 2023 to 2024, Montage Technology expects a revenue growth of 59% year-on-year, reaching 3.64 billion RMB (approximately $521.27 million), with a net profit of 1.34 billion RMB and a gross margin exceeding 58% [2] - The funds raised from the upcoming listing will be allocated to enhance R&D in interconnect chips, marketing activities, and seeking strategic investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has implemented stringent conditions for Chinese customers, requiring full payment upfront for orders of the H200 chips, with no cancellations or modifications allowed [1] Group 1: Payment Terms and Conditions - Nvidia's new terms for Chinese clients include a full prepayment requirement, which is stricter than previous practices that allowed for deposits [1] - In exceptional cases, customers may provide "commercial insurance" or collateral as alternatives to cash payment [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply - Chinese tech companies have reportedly ordered over 2 million H200 chips, each priced at approximately $27,000, exceeding the current inventory of 700,000 units by more than 70% [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that demand for the H200 is "very high," and the company has requested its supply chain to increase production capacity [1] - Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress mentioned that the company has applied for export licenses for the H200 and is awaiting approval from the U.S. and other governments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The reduction plan announced by Liu Jianwei, the actual controller of Heertai, has caused stock price fluctuations, primarily aimed at alleviating debt pressure due to a high pledge ratio of over 55% [1][2][3] Group 1: Shareholding and Reduction Plan - Liu Jianwei plans to reduce his shareholding by up to 18,417,800 shares, accounting for no more than 2% of the company's total share capital, from January 28 to April 27, 2026 [2][3] - As of the announcement, Liu Jianwei holds approximately 139 million shares, representing 15.06% of the company's total share capital [2][3] - The reduction is intended to repay pledged financing debts and meet personal funding needs, with a total of 76.76 million shares pledged, exceeding 55% of his holdings [3][5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - Heertai's stock price fell by 4.69% on the first trading day following the reduction announcement, closing at 38.80 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 35.88 billion yuan [5] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 8.27 billion yuan (up 17.47%) and net profit of 603 million yuan (up 69.66%) [8] - Heertai's investment in the chip company Moer Thread is noteworthy, with shares valued at over 2.5 billion yuan, contributing positively to its financial standing [8][9] Group 3: Corporate Structure and Management - Heertai's management structure is clearly defined, with Liu Jianwei overseeing financial, investment, and human resources, while the executive president, Qin Hongwu, manages the implementation of strategies and operational goals [9]

Group 1 - Musk stated that China has a significant advantage in the AI race due to its energy resources, which could allow it to catch up in the coming years [2] - He mentioned that improvements in chip technology have reached diminishing returns, indicating a potential slowdown in advancements from this area [2] - Musk predicted that the next 3 to 7 years will be very challenging for the industry, suggesting potential volatility and uncertainty ahead [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's self-developed chip "Xuanjie O1" won the highest award at the 2025 "Million Technology Award," highlighting the company's commitment to innovation and technology development [1][5]. Group 1: Award Details - The 2025 "Million Technology Award" received submissions from 10 departments within Xiaomi, totaling 154 projects, with 66 projects entering the review phase, marking a historical high in both quantity and quality [3][7]. - The highest award was given to the "Xuanjie O1" team, while other notable projects included the Xiaomi 17 Pro series, 2200MPa super steel, and various innovations in AI and battery technology, which received second and third prizes [3][7]. Group 2: R&D Investment - Over the past five years, Xiaomi committed to a research and development investment of 100 billion, with actual spending around 105 billion, and plans to invest 200 billion in the next five years [4][8]. - The CEO emphasized the importance of effectively allocating these funds to tackle core technologies in chips, operating systems, and AI, aiming to build a comprehensive ecosystem for Xiaomi [4][8]. Group 3: Future Plans - By 2026, Xiaomi aims to integrate self-developed chips, operating systems, and AI models into a single terminal, while also focusing on innovation in robotics [4][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market continues to show strong investor interest despite profit-taking, with a clear upward trend supported by robust market fundamentals [1] - The macro environment is expected to remain favorable for mid-term investments, with anticipated acceleration in local government special bond issuance and central budget investments [1] - January marks the disclosure window for listed companies' performance forecasts, with a significant rebound expected in year-on-year growth rates for 2025 earnings reports [1] Group 2 - The ongoing market rally has exceeded expectations, emphasizing the importance of broad-based investments while right-side funds are inclined to actively position in high-growth sectors such as AI, new energy, and robotics [2] - Left-side funds are advised to seek opportunities during market pullbacks while maintaining a focus on low-position Hong Kong tech stocks and dividend assets to enhance portfolio resilience [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include broad-based options like the CSI 300 ETF and A500 ETF, as well as high-growth assets such as AI ETFs and robotics ETFs [3] - Low-position Hong Kong tech ETFs and dividend-focused ETFs are also highlighted, with some funds offering the lowest fees in their respective categories [3]