巴西央行加息50BP至近20年高位，对下一步行动持开放态度 金十数据5月8日讯，巴西央行周三加息50个基点至14.75%，为连续第六次加息，将借贷成本推升至近 20年来高位，在全球不确定性和国内通胀持续高企的情况下，巴西央行对未来的举措持开放态度。央行 决策官员强调，当前的环境需要"长期采取明显限缩的货币政策"，以实现通胀目标。央行决议声明称， 由于不确定性上升，加上当前货币政策周期所处的进阶位置及其累积影响尚待观察，下一次会议需要对 货币政策行动更加谨慎，并灵活纳入影响通胀前景的数据。BMG银行首席经济学家Flavio Serrano表 示，央行暗示必要时6月可能以更小幅度升息，但他认为这种可能性不大。"我的基本假设是6月零加 息，维持在14.75%。年底可能还有降息空间，这取决于前景如何演变。" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：长期通胀预期与目标保持一致。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government has urgently implemented a comprehensive plan to mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. tariff policies on its businesses and consumers [1][3] - The plan includes measures such as improving corporate consulting systems, enhancing financing support for businesses, maintaining employment, stimulating domestic consumption, transforming industrial structures, and increasing competitiveness [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the potential fundamental changes to the international economic order due to U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting Japan's key industries like automotive and steel [3][8] Group 2 - Specific measures include lowering gasoline prices, providing subsidies for electricity and gas, and easing conditions for employment adjustment subsidies for companies that maintain employment without layoffs [3][4] - Japan is planning to increase imports of U.S. corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations, with an estimated import volume of about 11.5 million tons valued at approximately 459 billion yen in 2024 [4] - The Bank of Japan is facing uncertainty regarding its interest rate decisions due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with expectations of maintaining the current rate at 0.5% and potentially lowering growth forecasts [6][8]

新华财经北京5月1日电（马萌伟）由于美国关税带来的不确定性加剧，日本央行全票一致通过利率政策 决定，连续第二次会议将目标利率维持在0.50%不变，并下调经济增长预期。受此影响，美元兑日元走 高。 由于特朗普的贸易战推动了对美国资产的抛售以及避险需求增加，日元在过去四个月连续上涨，上周达 到了自去年9月以来的最高水平。 考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势，市场将密切关注日本央行行长植田和男在下午的新闻 发布会上对未来加息的任何指导。 目前，掉期交易员推迟了对日本央行加息的押注，隔夜指数掉期显示，日本央行到今年年底加息的可能 性约为50%，而4月初则是肯定的。 日本央行表示，实际利率处于历史较低水平，将从可持续、稳定地实现2%通胀目标的角度，酌情实施 货币政策。 日本央行下调其对2025和2026财年的经济增长预测，2025-2026财年实际GDP增速预期中值分别为 0.5%、0.7%，1月份预期分别为1.1%、1.0%。 日本央行也下调了核心通胀预期，2025-2026财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.2%、1.7%，1月份预期为 2.4%、2.0%。但日本央行预计通胀水平仍将大致按计划在未来几年达到2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate while lowering economic growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 due to uncertainties in global trade policies, particularly from the U.S. [1][2] Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan highlights that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which would suppress export demand, squeeze corporate profits, and cause households and businesses to delay consumption and investment [2] - The central bank perceives the downward pressure on the economy as temporary, expecting a gradual recovery in overseas economies to alleviate the negative impacts of tariffs [2] Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan observes that tariff risks are causing a chain reaction affecting inflation, predicting a stagnation in potential inflation rates for a period before a return to upward momentum [2] - Due to tariff increases, the Bank has revised down its growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, anticipating a period of slowing inflation and wage growth, although a severe labor shortage is expected to sustain a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases [2][3] Policy Response - The Bank of Japan adopts a pragmatic approach, indicating that policy responses will depend on the extent of deviations in inflation and growth from expectations [4] - Despite lowering growth forecasts, the central bank has not altered its policy framework, emphasizing the need for continued monetary easing to support economic activity [4] Future Considerations - Trade negotiations are identified as a critical variable for future policy, with the potential for a reassessment of economic forecasts if trade disputes escalate and disrupt global supply chains [5] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its timeline for achieving its inflation target, now suggesting a delay of several years compared to previous expectations of reaching the target around FY2025 [5] Market Reaction - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate increased, and market participants have pushed back expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies will likely delay any rate increases [7] - The Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, but there are still weak indicators, particularly in exports and output, which may continue to be affected by trade policy uncertainties [7]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果我们对下一财年晚些时候实现2%的通胀目标有足够的信心，那么加息是 有可能的。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：推迟实现通胀目标的时间不等于推迟加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：（当被问及关于在2026财年下半年至2027财年之间实现通胀目标的问题时）这 样说是对的。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，日本央行行长植田和男表示，预计美国关税将比10%的基础税率要高，要实现之前 的通胀目标并不简单。 ...

日本央行推迟通胀趋势达到目标的预期时间。 ...