Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Following the decision, traders maintained their bets on ECB rates, anticipating a further rate cut of 22 basis points by 2025 [1] - The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2%, with monetary policy decisions to be made based on data assessments [1] Interest Rate Policy - The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are being reduced at a steady and predictable pace, with no reinvestment of principal from maturing securities [3] - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and maintain the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission [3] - The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address unreasonable and chaotic market dynamics that threaten effective monetary policy transmission across Eurozone countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is committed to ensuring that inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2% [1] Group 1 - The ECB's Governing Council emphasizes its determination to maintain price stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2% and to maintain smooth functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council is ready to take necessary actions to achieve its inflation target [1] - The focus is on ensuring that the monetary policy transmission mechanism operates effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan, led by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, aims to guide monetary policy to achieve a stable 2% inflation target while maintaining close communication with the government as mandated by law [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is committed to stabilizing the economy through effective monetary policy [1] - The focus on achieving a 2% inflation target indicates a proactive approach to economic management [1] - The legal requirement for communication with the government highlights the collaborative nature of monetary policy in Japan [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its final interest rate cut until December, with no immediate concerns about the market prematurely concluding the end of the easing cycle [1] - Most economists surveyed expect the deposit rate to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September, but half believe that traders will not immediately conclude that rates have bottomed out even if the ECB maintains rates in the following meetings [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to a longer "policy observation period," allowing the ECB more time to assess economic and inflation dynamics before making decisions [3] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated a preference for maintaining current policy stability in July to further observe economic and inflation trends [3] - There is a lack of consensus among ECB decision-makers regarding future policy directions, with some officials expressing caution about further rate cuts [3][4] - Concerns about inflation remaining below the 2% target, particularly with a strengthening euro, are prompting some officials to consider more accommodative policies to boost inflation [4] Group 3 - The internal divisions within the ECB reflect the complexities of formulating future policies, balancing economic growth resilience against the need to ensure inflation progresses towards targets [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring ECB actions, as predictions and statements from economists and officials will influence expectations for future interest rate movements and asset price fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) can delay its final interest rate cut until December without worrying about premature market assumptions regarding the end of the easing cycle [2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Most respondents expect the deposit rate to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September, while half of the economists believe that even if the ECB maintains rates in the following three meetings, traders will not immediately conclude that rates have bottomed out [2] - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has ended its rate-cutting cycle, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it to wait until December [3] - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further easing in September and December [3] Group 2: Trade Policy and Economic Conditions - The progress of EU-US trade negotiations is a critical observation point that could disrupt the balance between domestic and external demand [4] - The ECB will be unable to signal whether further rate cuts are necessary or if the terminal rate has been reached before the upcoming meetings due to the lack of a trade agreement [4] - The ECB's June forecast indicated inflation stabilizing at 2% by 2027, with an average of only 1.6% expected for the following year [4] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Concerns - The euro has appreciated nearly 12% against the dollar this year, with ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warning that if the exchange rate exceeds 1.20, the economy may face challenges [5] - Economists show a higher tolerance for exchange rate pain points, with only about one-quarter agreeing with de Guindos' view, while others believe the warning threshold could be as high as 1.35 [6] - There are concerns that increased public spending may keep core inflation above target levels, and the ECB should not assume that core inflation will easily return to the target range [6]

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

近期，多数美联储官员认为本月底将维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%至4.5%不变。6月会议上，美联储官员预 计今年晚些时候可能降息两次，投资者则普遍预计9月会议将开启降息。不过，也有少数官员主张更早降息，认为 特朗普政府不断变化的进口关税政策对物价的影响可忽略不计。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周就表示，货币政 策可能过于紧缩，可考虑7月降息，且强调其利率观点与政治无关。 尽管特朗普一直向美联储施压要求尽快降息，甚至曾批评鲍威尔工作"糟糕"，但近日在被问及是否会解雇鲍威尔 时，特朗普称无相关计划。美联储官员则始终专注于经济数据本身。 哈马克称，当前利率已非常接近中性利率水平，经济展现出韧性且运行良好。在她看来，除非劳动力市场出现明 显疲软，否则降息缺乏依据。目前通胀率虽从疫情严重时超7%降至3%以下，但持续在该区间徘徊，未达美联储 2%的目标，这是暂不考虑降息的主因。她强调，需等待已出台新政策对通胀的影响进一步明晰。 对于7月29日至30日举行的FOMC会议，哈马克秉持开放态度，表示将依据经济数据和讨论方向做决策。但她明确 指出，就业方面已达成目标，通胀却未达标，因此有必要维持限制性货币政策，以确保通胀降至2 ...

Group 1 - Cleveland Fed President Harmack emphasized that due to persistently high inflation in the U.S. and ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of trade tariffs on price pressures, there is currently no immediate need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Harmack stated that the inflation level remains above the 2% target, which is a significant barrier to any short-term reduction in credit costs [1] - Most Fed officials seem to agree that the current target federal funds rate range (between 4.25% and 4.5%) will remain unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] Group 2 - A minority of Fed officials are inclined to consider a rate cut in July, arguing that the aggressive and changing import tariffs from the Trump administration will only have a one-time effect on inflation [2] - Fed Governor Waller indicated that current policies may be too tight and suggested that a reduction in policy rates could be considered [2] - Harmack warned that the evolving nature of tariffs makes it unclear how their impact will manifest, suggesting that a cautious approach is advisable [2]