Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials released hawkish statements, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a significant increase in gold prices, which reached a new historical high of $3748.53 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of over $60 [2] - Spot silver also hit a new high since May 2011, closing at $44.047 per ounce, up 2.38% [2] - The US stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, S&P 500 up 0.44%, and Nasdaq up 0.70% [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 1.21% increase in gold T+D, closing at 845.21 yuan per gram, while silver T+D rose by 1.47% to 10,280.0 yuan per kilogram [4] - The US Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 3.605% and the 10-year yield up by 1.1 basis points to 4.150% [2][5] Group 3 - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding further interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the 2% target, indicating a need for careful consideration before any policy changes [5] - The effective federal funds rate is expected to rise moderately, reflecting a faster-than-expected consumption of excess reserves by banks [5][7]

米兰的观点与其他美联储官员存在显著差异。9月22日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆明确表示，美联储 进一步降息的空间有限，若通胀风险增加，将不再支持任何宽松举措。他在上周虽支持了25个基点的降 息，但强调通胀率仍比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点，过度降息可能导致公众对通胀回归目标的 信心动摇，继而引发更严重的经济代价。 这种担忧在克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的发言中得到呼应。她指出，通胀已连续四年半高于目标，且可能 持续数年，因此，美联储在撤销限制性政策时需"非常谨慎"，避免经济重新过热。 哈玛克甚至认为，当前利率仅略高于中性水平，过早放松可能使抗通胀努力前功尽弃。 尽管上周美联储宣布降息25个基点，但美联储内部对于降息存在巨大分歧。 当地时间9月22日，由特朗普新任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动 上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，未来数月应继续大幅降息保护美国劳动力市场，年内累计降息幅 度需再达125个基点。 这是米兰上周宣誓就任美联储理事后的首次政策演讲。 米兰指出，今年以来的关税政策、移民限制和税收政策，已压低了中性利率（即既不会刺激也不会拖累 经济的政策利率水平）。 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight decline of 0.10% from the previous close of 0.6595 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is close to achieving its inflation target of 2%-3% and the economy is nearing full employment, according to Assistant Governor Hunt [1] - The RBA is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting on September 29-30, with economists predicting a rate cut in November and another early next year, bringing the terminal rate to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - If buying pressure returns, the AUD/USD may test the recent high of 0.6707, with a potential breakthrough pointing towards last year's high of 0.6942 [2] - Temporary support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6535 and the 100-day SMA of 0.6510; a drop below these levels could refocus attention on the August low of 0.6414 [2] - The relative strength index (RSI) is around 52, indicating weakened bullish momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) is around 20, suggesting a gradually strengthening overall trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the financial markets, particularly focusing on the U.S. dollar index, silver prices, and the implications of Federal Reserve officials' comments on interest rates and inflation [1][3][4]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.29, while spot silver opened at $44.00 per ounce and is currently around $43.97 per ounce [1]. - On September 22, the dollar index fell by 0.35% to close at 97.32, while spot silver rose by 2.29% to $44.05 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011 [1]. - Spot gold surged over $60, reaching a new historical high above $3740, closing at $3746.36 per ounce [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is expected to speak on economic prospects, and the U.S. will release preliminary PMI data for September [1]. - Fed official Milan suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated and advocates for a 1.25% rate cut this year, estimating the neutral rate at around 2.5% [3]. - Fed's Bostic expresses reluctance to support another rate cut in October due to inflation concerns, indicating only one expected cut in 2025 [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasizes caution in monetary policy adjustments due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [4]. Silver Market Analysis - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons [2]. - Silver market opened at 43.113, experienced a slight pullback, and then surged to a high of 44.11 before closing at 44.053, indicating a bullish trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts in the coming months to protect the U.S. labor market, arguing that current rates are too high [1][2]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate - Miran estimates the neutral interest rate at approximately 2.5%, which is notably lower than the Federal Reserve officials' median forecast of 3% [2]. - He suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated in the past and is currently under downward pressure due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Cuts - Miran believes that maintaining short-term rates about 2 percentage points above the appropriate level could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [2]. - He opposed the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower rates by only 0.25 percentage points, advocating instead for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Miran hopes for an additional 1.25 percentage points reduction in the remaining two FOMC meetings of the year, contrasting with the median forecast of a 0.5 percentage point cut from other officials [2]. Group 3: Inflation Target and Policy Independence - Miran expressed potential support for abandoning the precise 2% inflation target, emphasizing that any adjustment should occur only after achieving and maintaining that target for a period [3]. - He stated that his call for significant rate cuts is not a panic response but a necessary measure to mitigate rising risks associated with prolonged high rates [3]. - Miran's stance aligns with President Trump's requests for aggressive rate cuts, yet he maintains a position of independence within the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial reactions to Miran's speech have been skeptical, with observers questioning the assertion that current monetary policy is significantly tight given the still accommodative financial environment and near-full employment [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that having a precise inflation target can enhance macroeconomic management [1] Group 2 - The statement emphasizes the importance of clear inflation goals for effective economic policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials are anxiously awaiting new economic forecasts in December to assess if current interest rates are sustainable for achieving a 2% inflation target [1] Group 1: Current Economic Situation - ECB officials believe the current deposit facility rate of 2% is suitable for achieving the inflation target, but there is disagreement on assessing economic risks and tolerance for short-term inflation below the target [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank has achieved its price stability goal, but uncertainties remain despite a trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates in September, indicating that monetary policy is in a "good state," which led to reduced expectations for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks emphasized that it is inappropriate to adjust rates every time inflation deviates from the target, suggesting a high threshold for rate changes in October and December [2] - Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras noted that the current balance is acceptable, with no immediate need for rate adjustments, but acknowledged that significant changes in the economic outlook could prompt a reassessment [2] - Maltese central bank governor Edward Scicluna stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate, with no discussions on rate cuts, while monitoring trade tensions and the euro exchange rate [3] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus expressed a preference for rate cuts to support inflation targets, predicting that mid-term inflation will likely remain below the target [3] - Estonian central bank governor Madis Muller indicated that current rates support growth and inflation is at desired levels, suggesting no need for further action [4] - Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno mentioned that while a few quarters of inflation below the target can be tolerated, prolonged low inflation could lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has successfully achieved its price stability target, but uncertainties regarding the future economic outlook remain despite a trade agreement between the EU and the US [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The uncertainty in the economic landscape has decreased by approximately 50% compared to previous conditions, marking a significant improvement [3]. - The ECB has maintained its lending rates steady for the second consecutive meeting, following eight rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the past year [3]. - Officials expect inflation to temporarily dip below the target level next year but stabilize around the 2% target thereafter, with gradual economic momentum anticipated in the coming quarters [3]. Group 2: Policy Stance - As long as the economy does not face major shocks, there is no need for further easing of monetary policy, according to several officials [3]. - However, some officials believe that the possibility of implementing additional policy measures should not be ruled out [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25% [1] Economic Activity - Recent data indicates that economic activity has grown moderately in the first half of the year [1] - Employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased but remains low [1] - Inflation levels have risen and continue to exceed expectations [1] Federal Reserve's Commitment - The Federal Reserve emphasizes its commitment to maximizing employment and achieving a long-term inflation target of 2% [1] - The Fed will continue to carefully assess various data, economic outlooks, and risk balances [1] Asset Holdings - The Federal Reserve has clarified its intention to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [1]

Group 1 - The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 7% to adopt a cautious stance amid inflation pressures, global uncertainties, and a bleak domestic economic outlook [1] - The monetary policy committee had six members, with four in favor of maintaining the rate and two advocating for a 25 basis point cut, aligning with market expectations [1] - SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago expressed confidence in achieving the 3% inflation target, although adjustments may take longer than anticipated [1] Group 2 - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2%, but export predictions have been downgraded from a growth of 2.6% to a contraction of 0.2% due to increased tariffs on South African goods by the U.S. [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell to 3.3% in August, with core inflation at 3.1% [1] - SARB projects average inflation rates of 3.4% and 3.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expectations to return to 3% by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of First National Bank highlighted that interest rates are just one factor affecting confidence, emphasizing the importance of improving income and employment [2] - Despite improvements in consumer confidence, business confidence remains low, indicating an overall negative sentiment [2] - SARB and the Treasury are working on establishing a new inflation target to stabilize expectations, with ongoing communication between the Governor and the Finance Minister [2]