Group 1: Market Performance - On September 1, stocks of "Yizhongtian" (Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication) and "Dehua" (Dekeli, Huagong Technology) reached historical highs, leading the CPO and optical communication module sectors [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang saw a price increase of 14.42%, with an intraday high near 414 yuan; Xinyi Sheng rose over 9%, peaking at nearly 400 yuan; Tianfu Communication increased by 11.90%, with an intraday high exceeding 225 yuan; Huagong Technology hit the daily limit; Dekeli also reached a new high of 131.33 yuan before closing lower [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Xinyi Sheng reported a net profit of 39.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.86%; Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a net profit of 39.95 billion yuan, up 69.40%; Tianfu Communication's net profit was 8.99 billion yuan, growing by 37%; Huagong Technology's net profit reached 9.11 billion yuan, increasing by 44.87% [4] - Xinyi Sheng attributed its revenue growth to investments in data center computing power and significant breakthroughs in high-speed optical modules, with overseas revenue accounting for 94.4% of total sales [4] Group 3: Industry Trends - The domestic and international computing power industry chain is experiencing positive resonance, with Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 capital expenditure on "AI + Cloud" reaching 38.6 billion yuan, a 220% year-on-year increase [3] - AI applications are driving growth in traditional computing storage products, with Alibaba Cloud revenue reaching 33.398 billion yuan, a 26% year-on-year increase, marking the highest growth rate in three years [3] - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that with increased capital expenditure from internet giants and accelerated mass production of domestic AI chips, there is a long-term optimistic outlook for domestic computing power demand growth [3] Group 4: CPO Technology Insights - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is recognized as a mainstream product form for future high-speed optical communication, significantly reducing power consumption and costs for switches [4] - The CPO/OIO (Optical Interconnects) supply chain is highly integrated, with key components including CPO optical engines primarily utilizing silicon photonics technology [5] - Companies involved in CPO/OIO development, such as FAU, MPO, and CW laser manufacturers, are expected to maintain their competitive advantages in their respective segments [5]

2025-09-01 九月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 8月行情强度 research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 统计意义上的强度属于一般高的范畴，但鉴于涨幅榜前20有4只起涨时自由流通市值已在100亿以上的个股， 甚至有起步时已1403亿的寒武纪，且起涨时成交额均是10亿量级的，8月的实质强度较大 表1：8月涨幅榜前20 | 属性 | 名称 | 最低到最高涨幅 | 前最低价（元） | 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） | 起涨时成交额（千万） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新产品 | 赛诺医疗 | 238 86% . | 13 92 . | 42 81 . | 40 53 . | | 并购重组 | 开普云 | 163 56% . | 62 28 . | 19 71 . | 37 91 . | | 算力 | 华胜天成 ...

今日A股 市场全天震荡分化，创业板指领涨，沪指窄幅震荡。沪深两市全天成交额2.75万亿，较上个交易日缩量483亿。 盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱， 个股涨多跌少，全市场超3200只个股上涨。 从板块来看， 黄金概念股集体大涨 ，西部黄金等10余股涨停。 CPO等算力硬件股维持强势，源杰科技等多股再创历史新高。创新药概念股展开反弹，长春高新等涨停。下跌方面，大金融股集体调整，保 险股领跌。 板块方面，黄金概念、CPO、创新药、存储芯片等板块涨幅居前，保险、证券、军工、银行等板块跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.46%，深成指涨1.05%，创业板指涨2.29%。 高开率 77% 获利率 75% 今日预测量能: 50 100 0 2.75万亿 [-483亿 涨停表现 封板率 79.00% 封板 104 触及 28 昨涨停今表现 4.23% 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 实时盯盘 VIP资讯 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed strong performance on August 28, with over 2800 stocks rising and the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. The market is in a bullish trend in the medium term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable due to the accumulation of risks and the need to digest profit-taking chips. [2][3] - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation; coking coal and coke may fluctuate repeatedly; urea may continue to consolidate within a certain range; steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom; egg futures can be shorted on rebounds; live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations; and cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term but bullish in the medium to long term. [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Options - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes strengthened collectively. The trading volume of A-shares exceeded 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching 3.0004 trillion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with semiconductor, communication equipment, and other sectors leading the gains, while automobile service, real estate service, and brewing industries declined. [2] - The IF weighted index of CSI 300 stock index futures increased in volume and price, with the basis of the current-month contract widening and the basis of the next-month contract narrowing. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of two 300ETF options both increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IH weighted index of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased in position and increased in volume. The current-month contract changed to a discount to the underlying, and the next-month contract changed to a premium to the current-month contract. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of CFFEX SSE 50 stock index options decreased, while those of Huaxia 50ETF increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IM weighted index of CSI 1000 stock index futures increased in position and volume. The basis of the current-month contract and the next-month contract both widened, the trading volume PCR increased, the option trading volume PCR decreased but remained above 1.09, and the weighted implied volatility rose. The option MO holding volume reached a new high since listing. [2] - Trend investors are advised to focus on the strength and weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors are advised to go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls. [2] Stock Index - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes closed higher. Concept sectors such as copper cable high-speed connection, CPO, lithography machine, and storage chips were active, while grain concept, animal vaccine, and weight-loss drug sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82%. [3] - On Thursday, most European and American stock markets closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes hitting new closing highs. Technology stocks mostly rose, and the US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, exceeding expectations, which boosted market sentiment. [3] - The market showed a rebound and repair trend on Thursday. The short-term fluctuations of the market are due to the accumulation of risks after the rapid rise of the index and the need to digest profit-taking chips, but the overall strong pattern remains unchanged. [3] - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for previous profit-taking positions and use the 10-day moving average as the mid-term trend watershed. [3] Aluminum - The market continues to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September. Fundamentally, due to the release of supply increments and the off-season of consumption, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong. Aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The weekly average daily output of raw coal was 188,600 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the raw coal inventory was 472,600 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The average daily output of clean coal was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 283,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. [4] - Due to stricter safety inspections in mines and the supply contraction of downstream coke enterprises and steel mills, the short-term raw material support still exists, and coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate repeatedly. [4] Urea - The domestic urea spot market price remained stable over the weekend, with the mainstream ex-factory quotation at around 1,670 - 1,680 yuan/ton. Recently, many urea enterprises have overhauled their equipment, resulting in a significant decrease in daily output, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient. [4] - Affected by the weak downstream demand, the inventory of upstream urea enterprises continued to accumulate. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, but the downstream pick-up improved gradually. The UR2601 contract may continue to consolidate within the range of 1,700 - 1,820 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the Indian tender opening. [4] Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - The five major steel products continued to accumulate inventory in the off-season. Rebar production and demand both increased, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly faster. The total inventory increase slowed down, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase, indicating an accelerated transfer from factory inventory to social inventory. Terminal procurement was relatively cautious due to the off-season. [4] - Hot-rolled coil production and demand both decreased slightly, and the total inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall inventory accumulation pressure was not large, with the factory inventory at a historical low and the social inventory lower than the same period last year. The spot market trading was weak over the weekend, and the quotation was partially reduced by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis was at a high level, and the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly by 0.1 to 49.4%. Steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [4] Eggs - The national egg spot price fell steadily last week and stabilized again over the weekend. The current spot price at the benchmark location is 2.6 yuan/jin, a weekly decline of 0.08 yuan/jin. After the callback in the north, the price tried to rise slightly but failed, and the high-price area in the south began to decline. The出库 of cold storage eggs suppressed the market, and the supply of large-sized eggs was short, while the supply of medium and small-sized eggs was relatively sufficient. The terminal's acceptance of the rapid rise in egg prices was limited, and the sales slowed down. It is expected that the spot price is unlikely to fall significantly further due to the support of Mid-Autumn Festival stocking. Egg futures can be shorted on rebounds. [4] Live Pigs - The live pig spot price remained stable last week, with the national average price at 14.00 yuan/kg. The overall supply is sufficient, and the demand is constantly recovering, so the price is stable. Although the存栏 of medium and large pigs has decreased, the actual supply is still sufficient. With the decrease of high-temperature weather, the demand has rebounded, and the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises has increased, which further supports the price. The futures market showed general performance, maintaining a volatile trend, and the current discount is slight, with limited room for a deep decline. The near-term contract reflects the reality of oversupply, while the far-term contract reflects the expectation of capacity reduction. Live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations, with a weak near-term and a strong far-term, and it is advisable to conduct reverse arbitrage. [5] Cotton - In the previous trading session, ICE cotton rebounded significantly, with the December contract closing at 67.3 cents/pound, up 62 points, or 0.93%. Zhengzhou cotton rose sharply on Friday. Internationally, India extended the duty-free period for cotton imports until December 31, 2025, which boosted market sentiment. However, currently, US cotton exports to India only account for about 1.5% of its total exports, so the overall positive impact is limited. [5] - The main drivers of Zhengzhou cotton's rise are the rise of ICE cotton, the tight supply of cotton commercial inventory as of August 22, and the market's expectation of the start of orders during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, from the fundamental perspective, the cotton destocking speed and the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have not improved significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and the increase in downstream cotton yarn prices is limited, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term, with an expected decline next week, and the focus is on the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, but it may be bullish in the medium to long term. [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the long-term growth potential of 汇聚科技 (Hui Ju Technology) in the data communication, automotive, and medical sectors, driven by its strong management and technological leadership [3][4][7] - 汇聚科技 is a specialized supplier of customized wire interconnection solutions, with three main business segments: wire components, digital wires, and servers [4][12] - The company has experienced rapid growth since becoming a member of the 立讯精密 (Luxshare Precision) group in 2022, with projected revenues of 35.9 billion, 48.3 billion, and 73.9 billion HKD for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4][21] Group 2 - In the data communication sector, the demand for AI computing is driving growth, particularly in MPO optical communication and AI server markets, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2030 [5][28] - The MPO business is a core profit source for the company, with significant demand from major cloud providers, and revenue from optical fiber products is expected to grow substantially [5][24] - The server business has seen a remarkable increase in revenue, with a 318% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, driven by AI demand [5][27] Group 3 - In the automotive sector, the successful acquisition of Leoni Kable is expected to enhance the company's capabilities and market position, with the global automotive cable market projected to reach 169 billion by 2030 [6][28] - The automotive segment has shown steady growth, with revenues of 1.58 billion and 0.76 billion HKD for the first half of 2024 and 2025, respectively [6][24] - The integration of Leoni Kable is anticipated to lead to significant revenue growth and improved profitability for the automotive business [6][28] Group 4 - The medical sector is benefiting from an aging population and advancements in AI technology, with a projected revenue increase of 217% to 8.2 billion HKD in 2024 [7][28] - The company is actively investing in innovative medical technologies and has established partnerships to enhance its capabilities in this field [7][28] - The medical device segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by the resources and expertise of 立讯精密 [7][28] Group 5 - The company has a concentrated and stable ownership structure, with 立讯精密 holding 70.6% of its shares, which enhances strategic collaboration and resource sharing [15][19] - Recent acquisitions and expansions, including the purchase of a copper wire company, are aimed at strengthening the company's supply chain and vertical integration [30][34] - The financial performance has shown a significant recovery, with projected revenues for the first half of 2025 reaching 48.54 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 82.1% [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuanjie Technology, reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by the increasing demand for computing power in AI and data center applications, leading to a substantial rise in revenue and net profit [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 205 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 46.26 million yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 330.31% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations [1] Business Segments - Revenue from data center and other businesses surged to 105 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1034.18%, becoming a crucial revenue pillar for the company [1] - The telecommunications market maintained stable performance, generating revenue of 99.87 million yuan [1] Product Development - The company has optimized its product structure, expanding beyond traditional telecommunications to actively develop data center and silicon photonics markets [1] - Yuanjie Technology successfully mass-produced 70mW continuous wave laser chips for 400G/800G optical modules and completed customer validation for 100G EML chips, while also launching the development of 200G EML products [1] - The company has achieved bulk delivery of optical chip products for next-generation 25G/50G PON networks, with technical specifications matching international competitors [1] Research and Development - The company invested heavily in R&D, with expenses reaching 26.73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22% [2] - The R&D team consists of 96 members, accounting for 16% of the total workforce, with a notable presence of highly educated personnel, including 10 PhDs and 17 Masters [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company has obtained a total of 51 intellectual property rights, including 20 invention patents, highlighting its technological barriers and innovation capabilities [2] Future Outlook - Yuanjie Technology has established a dual-driven development model focusing on the telecommunications and data communication markets, with plans to deepen its engagement in high-speed, high-power optical chip fields [2] - The company aims to actively explore emerging applications such as CPO, silicon photonics, and lidar, reinforcing its leading position as a high-end optical chip supplier in China [2] Profit Distribution - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), totaling 25.65 million yuan, which accounts for 55.44% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The AI computing power sector has recently strengthened, with key stocks like New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication reaching new highs, leading to significant fund performance in this area [1][2] - As of August 28, 25 funds have doubled their net value in the last three months, with 50 funds showing over 90% growth, primarily due to heavy investments in the AI computing power sector [1][2] - The surge in fund performance is attributed to accelerated AI commercialization, increased capital expenditure from overseas cloud providers, and strong demand from the supply chain [1][5] Fund Performance - The "doubling funds" list has seen a significant reshuffle, with seven active equity funds achieving over 100% net value growth in the last three months [2] - The top three funds in this category are Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, AVIC Opportunity Navigation A, and Xin'ao Performance Driven A, with growth rates of 139.25%, 132.12%, and 127.12% respectively [2] - A total of 21 active equity funds have shown net value growth rates exceeding 90%, all heavily invested in the AI computing power sector [2][3] Investment Focus - The 21 funds with over 90% growth all hold New Yisheng, with 20 holding Zhongji Xuchuang and 19 holding Tianfu Communication, indicating a strong focus on these stocks [3] - The market for CPO technology, which is crucial for AI computing, is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 172% from 2023 to 2030 [4] - Domestic companies in high-end optical modules hold a 70% global market share, positioning them well to benefit from the current AI computing wave [4] Policy and Demand Dynamics - The resurgence of the AI computing sector is driven by a combination of policy support and surging demand, as funds shift focus from the previously hot innovative drug sector to AI [5][6] - The Chinese government has introduced policies to promote AI across various industries, creating a favorable environment for the development of the AI industry chain [6] - The demand for AI computing is expected to explode, driven by advancements in generative AI products and increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers [7] Future Outlook - Industry experts predict potential differentiation among AI-themed funds, with some funds likely to take profits [8] - The concentration of investments in leading stocks like "Easy Zhong Tian" may lead to significant benefits during market upswings but could also pose risks during downturns [8] - Long-term investment opportunities remain in the AI computing power sector, with expectations of sustained growth in demand [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth significantly exceeded market expectations, with a Q2 revenue increase of 83% year-on-year and a H1 revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, up 58% year-on-year. However, profitability has declined, with a gross margin of 50.79%, down 6.98 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The company is increasing its R&D efforts in technologies such as 1.6T, CPO, and silicon photonics to strengthen its core technological competitiveness [2] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 899 million yuan, up 37% year-on-year. The gross margin was 50.79%, down 6.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.511 billion yuan, representing an 83% year-on-year increase and a 60% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit for Q2 was 562 million yuan, up 50% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company sold 127 million optical communication components in H1 2025, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of 19 yuan per unit, up 36% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.9 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 72%, and 28%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 72, 42, and 33 times [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tengjing Technology reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, driven by the demand for AI computing power and growth in the optical communication components market, with total revenue reaching 263 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.29% [3][4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.59 million yuan, up 11.47% year-on-year [3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 34.62 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.68% compared to the previous year [3] Business Growth Drivers - The growth in revenue was primarily due to the expansion in the optical communication sector and high growth in high-end optical modules for emerging applications like semiconductor equipment [3][4] - The company increased its R&D investment by 30.71% year-on-year, totaling 29.11 million yuan, which accounted for 11.07% of total revenue [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on technological research and development in optical and optoelectronic industries, enhancing its core technology capabilities and product offerings [4][5] - Efforts include expanding production capacity for crystal materials in the optical communication field and advancing AR smart glasses technology [5] Market Engagement - The company actively participated in several international industry exhibitions to enhance brand visibility and customer engagement, including events in the US and Germany [4][5] Capacity Expansion - The company is progressing with the construction of a production base in Thailand to improve overseas order fulfillment capabilities in optical communication and biomedical sectors [5][6]

Market Overview - All three major indices experienced gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% and the North Stock 50 increasing by 2.47% [2] - Trading volume surged, with a total turnover increase of nearly 67 billion compared to the previous day, indicating active capital movement [2] - Over 2,000 stocks in the market saw price increases, reflecting a positive market sentiment [2] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector saw a significant surge, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) rising over 10%, and companies like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy also experiencing gains [2] - The liquor sector remained strong, with stocks such as Shede Spirits and Jiu Gui Jiu rising [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector showed sudden strength, with Kangchen Pharmaceutical and Huahai Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2] - Insurance stocks had a brief surge, with New China Life Insurance reaching near the daily limit before retreating [2] Declines - The semiconductor and computing sectors faced collective adjustments, with Cambrian falling over 8%, and other companies like Northern Huachuang and Longxin Technology also declining [2] - The CPO concept showed significant internal differentiation, with some stocks dropping over 10% while others turned positive [2] - Overall, technology stocks remained inactive, with funds temporarily shifting towards lower-tier sectors [2] Afternoon Outlook - The ChiNext Index is expected to consolidate after its morning surge, with a likelihood of a stable yet fluctuating afternoon [2] - Continuous strong performance in lithium batteries and liquor stocks is less likely, with stability being a victory [2] - If technology stocks decline significantly, a potential rebound may occur, but a full reversal is not anticipated at this time [2]