分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 3 月 11 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 胜宏科技发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告，归属于上市公司股东的净利润 7.8 亿 元–9.8 亿元，比上年同期增长 70%–90%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 6.9 万 元–7.9 亿元，比上年同期增长 72%–97%。按公司 2024 年业绩预告，公司 2024 年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 11.6 亿元，同比增长 72.9%，扣除非经常 性损益后的净利润 11.4 亿元，同比增长 71.5%。今年一季度的业绩相当于 2024 年全年的约 80%。业绩增长的主要推动因素是参与国际头部大客户新产品预研， 突破超高多层板、高阶 HDI 相结合的新技术，实现了 PTFE 等新材料的应用。快 速落地 AI 算力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for computing power is expected to increase further driven by AI technologies, with the State Grid's first tender scale reaching a new high [1] - The power equipment capacity can reach 3-5 times that of computing chips, with the supply and distribution market space expected to reach 73 billion yuan by 2026 [4] - The AIDC power equipment sector has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in backup diesel power sources (+26.6%), lead-acid batteries (+14.1%), and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) (+13.6%) [4] - The industry is characterized by a long power transmission chain with global giants like Vertiv, Eaton, and Schneider having established strong product lines and solution capabilities [4] - Domestic companies are gaining competitive advantages in various segments of the data center industry, with leading firms gradually building solution provision capabilities [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for global AIDC construction, with major cloud providers expected to significantly increase capital expenditures [4] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - The global data center's IT load is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The investment in power engineering reached 302.2 billion yuan in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54% [4] - The first batch of 2025 State Grid transmission and transformation equipment tenders amounted to 15.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [4] Grid Industry - The grid investment for 2025 is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time, with a continuous increase in investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The tender results for the State Grid's high-voltage direct current equipment showed a significant increase in the value of contracts awarded [4] - The domestic grid sector is expected to maintain high investment levels, with an estimated average annual investment exceeding 700 billion yuan [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 109% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA growth of 108%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 87% [3][12] - For the full year 2024, revenues increased by 51% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 55%, achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 88% [3][12] - Free cash flow for Q4 was approximately $26.7 million, with a free cash flow margin of 73%, while for the full year, free cash flow totaled $66.7 million [16][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Surface use royalties and revenues increased by 54% sequentially in Q4, contributing significantly to revenue growth [13] - Non-oil and gas royalty revenue accounted for nearly 90% of overall revenue in Q4, remaining flat from the prior quarter but up about 20% year-over-year [14] - Resource sales and royalties declined by 28% sequentially due to decreased brackish water sales and royalty volumes [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its land holdings from approximately 72,000 surface acres to about 273,000 surface acres, with significant acquisitions in Q4 [4][5] - The acquisition of the Wolf Bone Ranch added 46,000 acres in a strategic location for oil and natural gas production [5] - The company is pursuing growth opportunities in digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and commercial real estate [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on an active land management strategy to create shareholder value, with plans to continue acquiring underutilized and under-commercialized surface [4][18] - Future growth is expected from digital infrastructure and renewable energy projects, including agreements for solar energy project development [6][7] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet while pursuing value-enhancing land acquisitions [19][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential from digital infrastructure and the need for data centers, particularly in West Texas [8][9] - The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025, expecting adjusted EBITDA of $170 million to $190 million driven by recent acquisitions and increased surface use royalties [22] - Management noted that the business model allows for significant cash flow growth without substantial capital expenditures [15][18] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with $385 million in debt, up from $281.3 million at the end of Q3 2024, and has total liquidity of $107 million [19][21] - A cash dividend of $0.10 per share was declared, with plans to revisit the amount quarterly [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Surface use economic efficiency growth expectations - Management indicated that there is still room for improvement in surface use economic efficiency, with potential to achieve over $3,000 per acre [25][27] Question: Details on the WES agreement and third-party agreements - The WES agreement is expected to generate low to mid-teens of royalties once operational, with ongoing discussions for additional third-party agreements [29][32] Question: Data center roadmap and revenue expectations - The data center project has a 2-year site selection period followed by a 4-year construction period, with expected revenues ramping up post-construction [35][39] Question: M&A outlook and market fragmentation - The market remains fragmented with many opportunities for M&A, which continues to be a priority for capital allocation [79][82] Question: Impact of oil prices on 2025 guidance - The 2025 guidance does not incorporate significant oil price fluctuations, as the company is insulated from commodity price sensitivity [74][75] Question: Water needs for data centers - Brackish water and produced water require treatment for use in cooling data centers, but the company has abundant resources available [67][70]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cloud Investment - Deepseek's breakthrough technology significantly lowers costs and user barriers, boosting demand for cloud computing from government and enterprises[1] - Major cloud providers in China are expected to increase capital expenditure (Capex) in AI, with a projected total Capex of approximately 500 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 65%[2] - The global Capex for leading cloud service providers (CSPs) is estimated to reach $228.3 billion in 2024 and $288.1 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of about 55% and 30% respectively[2] Group 2: Data Center Growth and Copper Demand - The data center industry is entering an upward cycle, with significant increases in capital expenditure expected from leading cloud providers, driving demand for data centers[3] - China's data center copper consumption is projected to grow from 1.2% to 2.5% of total copper consumption from 2024 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.3%[4] - Total copper consumption for data centers in China is expected to reach 42,000 tons by 2027, with annual growth rates of 36% in 2025 and 26% in 2026[6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The IDC industry is currently at a bottom reversal stage, with capital expenditure growth shifting from negative to positive, indicating a recovery in demand[3] - Key risk factors include slower-than-expected development of large models, lower-than-expected capital expenditure from cloud providers, and potential changes in the macroeconomic environment[7] - The demand for AI data centers (AIDC) is expected to increase significantly, with China's intelligent computing capacity projected to double to 2,328 EFLOPS by 2025[3]

Summary of Conference Call on Humanoid Robots Industry Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant growth, with a strong market consensus on the potential of AI and robotics applications, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which has seen transaction volume ratios reach 40-45% [2][3][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - The current market is characterized by a structural opportunity, especially in the AI and robotics sectors, which have driven market sentiment and trading volume, with AI-related sectors achieving a percentile rank of 90-100 [2][3]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see a rebound despite recent declines, as there are no major negative factors affecting the industry, and production targets for companies like Tesla are achievable [3][6]. - The automotive industry is playing a crucial role in advancing humanoid robots, with companies like Chery, Seres, and Xiaomi actively investing in this space [3][10]. - Policy support is expanding for humanoid robots, potentially leading to new business models such as contract manufacturing and partnerships among manufacturers [3][11]. - The growth trajectory of the humanoid robot industry is expected to be faster than that of the new energy vehicle sector, with a wide range of end-use applications and clear cost-reduction pathways [3][18]. Market Dynamics - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as domestic political events and international policies [5]. - The recent downturn in the humanoid robot sector is attributed to prior excessive gains and external factors, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and production capabilities [6][7]. - The market for humanoid robots is projected to achieve production targets of 5,000 to 10,000 units in 2025, driven by supportive policies and technological advancements [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on core components such as actuators and gear reducers, as well as undervalued companies with production potential [9]. - Companies in the automotive supply chain, particularly those with low valuations and high growth potential, are highlighted as key investment targets [10][15]. - The emergence of new business models and alliances among humanoid robot manufacturers is expected to create additional investment opportunities [11]. Comparative Analysis - The valuation multiples of the humanoid robot industry are comparable to those of the new energy vehicle sector during its early growth phases, suggesting that current valuations are not excessively high [19]. - The development of the humanoid robot industry mirrors that of the new energy vehicle sector, with both relying on policy support and showing potential for rapid growth [18][20]. Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is positioned for significant growth, supported by technological advancements, policy backing, and increasing market demand. Investors should remain vigilant for opportunities within this evolving landscape, particularly in core components and strategic partnerships.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company [1]. Core Insights - The company, Taiyong Changzheng, operates in the power grid equipment sector and has seen its smart circuit breakers contribute approximately 8% to its revenue over the past three years, with sales influenced by industry construction cycles and market competition [18]. - The company's power and distribution products are utilized in various aspects of the renewable energy sector, including wind, solar, and energy storage systems [18]. - The sales volume of charging piles is primarily directed towards high-quality real estate groups, large operators, and public buildings, although this segment represents a small portion of total revenue [18]. - In the data center sector, the company's power automatic transfer switches are widely used, showcasing a leading technological level and brand recognition [18]. - As of Q3 2024, the company faces revenue pressure due to cyclical impacts from the real estate industry, leading to reduced construction investments [19]. - The decline in gross margin for power electrical products is attributed to intensified market competition and rising material costs, although the company maintains a competitive advantage in gross margin compared to peers [19]. - Following the acquisition of a 35% stake in Chongqing Yuantong, the company plans to strengthen its advantages in the power grid sector while expanding into industrial and large client markets, focusing on digital and intelligent product upgrades [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research was conducted on February 28, 2025, focusing on Taiyong Changzheng in the power grid equipment industry, with key personnel including the board secretary and financial head [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - The research involved institutions such as Haitong Securities, represented by personnel like Ma Tianyi [16]. 3. Research Institution Proportions - The report does not provide specific data on the proportions of research institutions involved [17]. 4. Main Content Information - The report highlights the company's product applications in renewable energy, data centers, and the impact of market conditions on revenue and margins [18][19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the electronic components industry or the specific company being analyzed. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a record high in sales revenue of 5.897 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 832 million yuan, up 29.91% from the previous year, with a net profit excluding extraordinary items of 781 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.96% [14][19]. - The company has been expanding its product lines in traditional markets such as mobile communications and consumer electronics while also making significant inroads into emerging markets like automotive electronics and data centers, gaining recognition from top global clients [14][15]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 36.50%, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous year, attributed to strong product demand, increased production capacity utilization, and ongoing innovation in technology and processes [19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focusing on long-term development strategies, managing both existing and new business segments effectively. It has successfully expanded its product offerings in traditional markets while also entering new strategic markets [14][15]. Automotive Electronics - The automotive electronics sector is identified as a key growth area, with the company having established a presence since 2009 and achieving tier 1 automotive certification in 2017. The company aims to continue expanding its product offerings in this sector, which includes applications in electric vehicles and intelligent driving [14][15]. Mobile Communications - The mobile communications sector remains a traditional stronghold for the company, with a high market share. The company plans to maintain its market position while introducing new products to drive growth [16]. Data Centers - The data center business is a strategic focus, with the company supplying various types of power inductors and capacitors. The demand for high-power density and low-power consumption products is increasing, driven by trends in AI and data storage [17]. New Energy and Fuel Cells - The company has established a subsidiary focused on high-temperature fuel cells, recognizing the long-term potential of clean energy. This subsidiary will develop and produce composite ceramic components for solid oxide fuel cells [20]. Capital Expenditure - The company is in a capital-intensive industry, requiring ongoing investment in capacity expansion and R&D. Recent capital expenditures have focused on industrial park construction, with plans to slow down such investments as projects near completion [20]. Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently prioritized shareholder returns, achieving a total cash dividend of 702.07 million yuan in 2024, reflecting strong operational performance and cash flow [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the AIDC industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - Major domestic and international manufacturers are making significant capital expenditures in the AIDC sector, indicating substantial growth potential in the infrastructure industry [4]. - The AIDC infrastructure can be categorized into internal and external components, with overseas value being higher compared to domestic counterparts [5]. - The AIDC sector is experiencing exponential growth in computing power and a significant increase in power consumption compared to traditional IDC [6]. - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures by major players such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba in China, as well as the four major US tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon) [19][22]. Summary by Sections AIDC Infrastructure Composition - AIDC is designed specifically to support and accelerate AI applications, featuring high-performance computing resources and large-scale storage solutions [11]. - The key differences between AIDC and traditional IDC include a significant increase in power density and computing power, with AIDC cabinets typically ranging from 20-100 kW [15]. Internal AIDC Components - High-power AI servers create investment opportunities in power supply, liquid cooling, supercapacitors, and BBU [25]. - The global market for AI server power supplies is expected to exceed $5 billion by 2026, driven by increased power density and efficiency [6][40]. - Supercapacitors are gaining importance in AIDC for their dual functions of peak shaving and backup power, with a projected market increase due to their integration into NVIDIA's GB300 [55][56]. - Liquid cooling technologies are becoming essential as cabinet power densities exceed 20 kW, with various liquid cooling methods emerging to meet high thermal demands [63]. External AIDC Components - The demand for UPS, HVDC, diesel generators, transformers, and switchgear is expected to grow significantly due to AIDC requirements [8]. - The UPS market is projected to reach 19.1 billion yuan by 2025, with leading companies like Kehua and Huawei holding significant market shares [9]. - The diesel generator market for AIDC is anticipated to reach 238 billion yuan, indicating a vast market potential for domestic manufacturers [9]. Major Players and Investment Plans - ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to 160 billion yuan by 2025, focusing on AI computing procurement and data center construction [20]. - Tencent's capital expenditure is projected to reach 230 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 176% year-on-year increase [19]. - Alibaba aims to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, significantly increasing its previous decade's total investment [20]. - Major US tech companies are also ramping up their investments in AI data centers, with total investments expected to reach $218 billion by the end of 2024 [22][23].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue was $3.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $271 million, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [10][11] - Full year 2024 revenue reached $12.3 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, also a nearly 20% year-over-year increase [11][38] - Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $1.44, more than double last year's fourth quarter [10][38] - Cash flow from operations for the full year was $1.1 billion, with net debt reduced by over $700 million [11][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Communications Segment**: Fourth quarter revenues increased by 28% year-over-year to $975 million, with EBITDA up 67% [18][42] - **Power Delivery Segment**: Fourth quarter revenues rose by 16% year-over-year, with expectations for double-digit growth in 2025 [21][52] - **Pipeline Segment**: Fourth quarter revenue was $430 million, with a forecasted decline in 2025 due to the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline [24][49] - **Clean Energy and Infrastructure Segment**: Fourth quarter revenue was the highest in the segment's history, up 18% year-over-year, with EBITDA more than doubling [26][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Backlog at year-end totaled $14.3 billion, an increase of over $400 million sequentially and nearly $2 billion year-over-year [40] - Non-pipeline revenue increased by 21% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, with non-pipeline EBITDA improving by 57% [12][11] - The company expects 2025 non-pipeline revenues to increase by 14% and EBITDA to grow over 25% [14][55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth, with potential tuck-in acquisitions to accelerate goals [63] - There is a strong emphasis on improving margins across all segments, with a goal of reaching $15 billion in revenue with double-digit margins [109] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on significant opportunities in communication, power delivery, and clean energy sectors [29][124] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the unprecedented demand for services across all segments, driven by fundamental needs rather than short-term trends [16][15] - The company anticipates continued backlog growth in all segments throughout 2025, despite potential lumpiness in project awards [81][80] - There is optimism regarding the pipeline business, with expectations for revenue in 2026 to exceed 2024 levels [61][155] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced days sales outstanding (DSO) to 60 days, down from 68 days in the previous quarter [39] - The company is preparing for future workforce needs with over 30 dedicated trading facilities across the country [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pipeline business revenue expectations for 2026 - Management confirmed expectations for 2026 revenues in the Pipeline segment to exceed 2024 levels, citing increased optimism among customers [61][62] Question: Clean Energy margins and execution - Margins were driven by execution, with management indicating potential for exceeding guidance in 2025 [66][68] Question: Backlog growth in all segments - Management expressed confidence in backlog growth across all segments in 2025, despite historical lumpiness [81][80] Question: Communications segment growth profile - Management indicated that growth in the Communications segment is driven by new contracts and existing customer demand, with limited reliance on BEADs funding [82][84] Question: Margin improvement confidence - Management attributed margin improvement to a combination of factors, including increased revenue and operational efficiency [105][109] Question: Capacity for large transmission projects - Management stated readiness to take on additional large projects, with expectations for awards in 2025 [129][130] Question: Renewable business backlog and timing - Management confirmed strong backlog in renewables with no significant delays expected due to policy uncertainty [156]

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点，主要观点摘录如下。 国家发改委已明确表示，2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年，并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大，政府已下达2025年首批消费品以旧换新资金 810亿元。得益于该笔资金支持，消费电子产品销量在春节假期期间实现激增，国家发改委数据显示，手 机销售收入同比大幅增长182%。2024年，政府从1万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中，统筹安排1500亿元 人民币支持消费品以旧换新计划。2025年，我们预计政府将从1.3万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中安排 2000亿元人民币资金，加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新计划。 得益于2024年9月24日以来政府推出的一系列宽松政策措施，中国房地产市场再次呈现出企稳态势。一度 严重负增长的新房销售同比增速在近期出现反弹，降幅收窄接近零。部分一线城市的现房价格出现了自 2021年年中以来的最大涨幅。不过我们认为这种企稳仅限于一线城市，一些自我延续的下行螺旋仍然存 在，目前还没有出现明显的持续复苏迹象。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十 ...