Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE US cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.22 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 decreased 1.27% to 13,650 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 26,391 lots to 349,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - For sugar, consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - south region to 40.16 million tons, a reduction of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The expected total cane crush is 598.8 million tons, a 3.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with future import pressure gradually emerging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: International market: After the macro super - week, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. Powell's speech reduced market bets on a September rate cut, and the US dollar index approached 100. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market continues to shift, with the 09 contract reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread widening. The 09 contract's open interest has returned to the average level in recent years, and the net long positions of the main players have decreased. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: StoneX's report shows a reduction in Brazil's sugar production forecast due to heavy rainfall in June. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the main contract is shifting positions. The market is returning to fundamentals, and future import pressure is emerging [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 190, down 40; the main contract basis is 1,675, down 40. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130, and the national spot price is 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 140, up 10; the main contract basis is 262, down 9. The Nanning spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,055 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. 3. Market Information - On July 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous trading day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load remained flat at 49.3, and the yarn inventory rose to 29.6. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained flat at 47.8, and the inventory rose to 33.5 [4]. - On July 31, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][9][10][11][12]. - Charts for sugar include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17].

| 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 回收 | | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | | 995 | -0.70% | | 周六福 | | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | | 991 | -1.00% | | 六福珠宝 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 我是章 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | | 992 = - 0.70% | 截至8月1日8时30分，国际现货黄金已跌破3300美元/盎司，报3289.26美元/盎司。 国内金饰现价也普遍跌至1000元/克下方。 据央视财经此前报道，市场对美联储降息预期遇冷，美元指数延续上涨势头，国际金价周四承压下跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3348.6美元，跌幅为0.13%。今年7月，因美国政府 关税威胁，国际金价一度涨回每盎司3400美元关口上方。此后，随着美国政府陆续与主要贸易伙伴达成 协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 225 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, translating to an increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan per liter, which exceeds the upper limit for price hikes [1] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, closing at $69.36 per barrel after a decline of 1.34% [4] - Brent crude oil also fell by 1.36%, closing at $71.74 per barrel, with current prices at $69.27 per barrel, reflecting a further decrease of 0.13% [4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a surprising rise in core PCE inflation to 2.8%, has impacted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced oil demand [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The following are the expected fuel prices in various regions: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.23 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 7.22 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.68 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.48 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.89 yuan, and diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 10.06 yuan, and diesel at 6.99 yuan [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump signed an executive order establishing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple trade partners, which has influenced market sentiment and the dollar index [1] - The dollar index recorded its first monthly increase of the year, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The market is currently awaiting the July non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide further insights into economic conditions [1] - Various trading instruments are showing mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, as indicated by the data from the "Gainscope Market Barometer" [1]

截至8月1日8时30分，国际现货黄金已跌破3300美元/盎司，报3289.26美元/盎司。 国内金饰现价也普遍跌至1000元/克下方。 | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 晋陵 | 银行 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | ઠેઠેર | -0.70% | | 周六福 | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | 991 | -1.00% | | 六福珠宝 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 芙圭章 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | ● 29 或者 20 | 据央视财经此前报道，市场对美联储降息预期遇冷，美元指数延续上涨势头，国际金价周四承压下跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3348.6美元，跌幅为0.13%。今年7月，因美国政府 关税威胁，国际金价一度涨回每盎司3400美元关口上方。此后，随着美国政府陆续与主要贸易伙伴达成 协议，国际金价涨幅收窄，7月累计小幅上涨，涨幅为1.24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the RMB/USD exchange rate is attributed to various factors, including the impact of tariff policies, the performance of the US dollar index, and the ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US [2][3][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of July 31, the onshore and offshore RMB/USD exchange rates were reported at 7.193 and 7.2019, respectively, marking a continuous decline over five days and a cumulative drop of 0.38% for July [2]. - The RMB/USD central parity rate also fell to 7.1494, deviating significantly from market expectations, indicating a stronger than anticipated market response [2]. Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent US-China trade negotiations have not exceeded market expectations, contributing to the depreciation of the RMB. The lack of concrete outcomes from the talks has led to a weaker market sentiment [3][6]. - The extension of the existing tariff measures for 90 days was the only confirmed outcome from the negotiations, which did not provide the market with the anticipated clarity [6][7]. Economic Factors - The US dollar index has reached a two-month high, which has been a significant factor in the RMB's decline. The stability of the US economy and the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates have supported the dollar [9][10]. - China's economic fundamentals, including trade surplus and consumer demand, are also influencing the RMB's performance. However, concerns about insufficient domestic demand persist [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate may rise to 7.1 in the next three to six months, driven by expectations of a resolution in trade negotiations and continued strong export performance [4][13]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.10 and 7.00 in the next three to six months, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [5][13]. External Influences - The ongoing strength of the US dollar and the potential for future Fed rate cuts are expected to play crucial roles in shaping the RMB's exchange rate dynamics [10][14]. - The recent data indicates that China's import and export scale remains robust, with significant growth in foreign currency deposits, suggesting a stable liquidity environment for the RMB [14].

老王紧盯着手机屏幕，指尖微微颤抖，心中的苦涩如同眼前的绿色数字般蔓延。三天前，账户里还盈余着14万多的利润，如今却尽数 化为泡影，只剩一片惨淡的绿意。时间回溯到7月22日，国际金价如火箭般蹿升，一度触及3431美元/盎司的历史高位。彼时，老王心中 盘算着再等等，凑个整数便出手。 然而，市场的风云变幻莫测。7月23日开盘，金价便如断崖般跳空低开，紧接着，连续四根巨大的阴线砸了下来，3400、3380、 3350……每一道关口都如同被摧枯拉朽般击溃。最终，金价重重地摔回3300美元的起跑线，老王这半年来在黄金市场上的辛勤耕耘， 连本带利，尽数吐回。 与此同时，国内金店的景象也并不乐观。周大福的柜台前，几位大妈凑在一起，看着标签上的数字，啧啧叹息。"前个月还1080呢，你 看现在，999元！"老庙黄金更是直接打出了"999元/克"的醒目横幅，相较于六月份，足足便宜了一百块。导购小姐姐小声嘟囔着："金 价这么个跌法，我开了十年店还是头一回见。" 回顾整个七月，黄金市场犹如一辆疯狂的过山车，走势之惊险刺激，令人心惊胆战。六月底，金价还在3300美元的平台上苦苦盘整， 七月初却突然启动加速模式，20号一举突破3400美元 ...

美国将对柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、印尼商品征收19%的关税，将对越南商品征收20%关税。 美国将对瑞士商品征收39%关税。 美国将对韩国、土耳其、委内瑞拉商品征收15%关税。 美国将对南非商品征收30%关税。 美元指数日内小幅下跌，美国将对中国台湾商品征收20%的关税。 ...

美元指数日内微幅走低。美国将对柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、印尼商品征收19%的关税，将对越南商品 征收20%关税。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, indicating a mixed performance among non-US currencies, with most showing an upward trend against the dollar [1] Currency Performance - The euro appreciated by 0.02% against the dollar, reaching a rate of 1.1419 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.01% against the dollar, with a rate of 1.3209 [1] - The Australian dollar rose by 0.10% against the dollar, reaching 0.6432 [1] - The Japanese yen saw a minor decrease of 0.01% against the dollar, with a rate of 150.7400 [1] - The Canadian dollar declined by 0.09% against the dollar, with a rate of 1.3845 [1] - The Swiss franc increased by 0.01% against the dollar, reaching 0.8124 [1]