Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of China Postal Savings Bank's Shenzhen branch in supporting the real economy through targeted financial services aligned with national strategies, particularly focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its five key areas of financial development [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Support for Real Economy - The Shenzhen branch integrates its services with the "14th Five-Year Plan" by focusing on the development of a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy [2]. - The branch has developed a comprehensive service system that aligns with the "20+8" industrial cluster strategy, ensuring a precise match between financial resources and the needs of Shenzhen's real economy [2][3]. Group 2: Inclusive Finance Initiatives - The branch utilizes its 69 outlets across the city to enhance financial accessibility, particularly in urban agriculture and rural revitalization, launching products like "U Grain Easy Loan" to support the grain industry [3]. - It has served over 3,000 small and micro enterprises, issuing loans exceeding 15 billion yuan, focusing on advanced manufacturing and technology-driven businesses [3]. Group 3: Technological and Green Finance - The branch has established a dedicated technology finance division, offering specialized products like "Tech Innovation Loans" and "Intellectual Property Pledge Loans" to support key sectors such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [4]. - It is actively involved in green finance, supporting Shenzhen's dual carbon goals through various financial instruments, including green loans and bonds, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and green buildings [4]. Group 4: Regional Development and Strategic Partnerships - The branch has signed strategic cooperation agreements with local governments and organizations, channeling over 1 trillion yuan into major projects within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [5]. - It is committed to enhancing service capabilities through digital transformation and risk management improvements, ensuring robust support for the local economy [6]. Group 5: Focus on Livelihood and Consumer Finance - The branch has launched initiatives to boost local consumption, including personal loan subsidies and partnerships with merchants to enhance consumer experiences [7][8]. - It has developed a comprehensive pension finance system, supporting various aspects of elderly care and financial literacy, with significant growth in personal pension accounts [8]. Group 6: Commitment to Continuous Improvement - The Shenzhen branch aims to deepen its financial services' precision and effectiveness, contributing to the high-quality development of the real economy and supporting Shenzhen's role as a model for socialism with Chinese characteristics [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Investment Strategy Conference held by Guosen Securities focused on "New Momentum, New Landscape," addressing key topics such as China's 14th Five-Year Plan, Sino-U.S. technology and industry competition, wealth management, and investment strategies, attracting over 2,000 attendees and 6,000 total participations across various forums [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference featured prominent speakers including Guosen Securities President Deng Ge and Chief Marketing Officer Yuan Chao, along with experts from various academic and research institutions [2]. - The event included a main forum and seven sub-forums, facilitating over 300 meetings between listed companies and investors [1]. Group 2: Guosen Securities' Strategic Focus - Guosen Securities aims to enhance its research capabilities, focusing on a comprehensive research system covering macro, industry, and company analysis to support investors [4]. - The company is committed to providing top-tier investment banking services, offering a full cycle of financial services from IPOs to mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Guosen Securities is expanding its wealth management transformation, leveraging AI technology to provide personalized asset allocation solutions [5]. - The firm is actively developing cross-border business opportunities to support domestic companies in international markets [5]. - Enhancements in compliance and risk management are prioritized to ensure investor safety [6]. Group 3: Economic Insights and Future Outlook - Expert speeches highlighted the need for policy support to sustain economic recovery and balance consumption and investment for high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7]. - The Chief Economist of Guosen Securities, Xun Yugen, discussed the challenges of transitioning from old to new economic drivers, emphasizing the role of AI and smart manufacturing in future growth [8]. - The conference's sub-forums provided in-depth analysis of investment opportunities and risks in various sectors, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and public funds, offering timely research references for investors [8].

Group 1: 2025 A-Share Market Review - As of November 14, 2025, the overall A-Share index increased by 26.58%, with the ChiNext index and STAR 50 leading at 45.29% and 37.65% respectively [6] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 saw an increase in closing prices compared to the end of the previous year, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electric equipment leading with gains exceeding 50% [4][19] - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 3.40% [4][19] Group 2: 2026 Investment Environment Analysis - The 2026 investment environment is characterized by a stable macroeconomic policy in China, with expected resilience in economic growth and a potential recovery in inflation from low levels [4][36] - The international landscape remains uncertain, with geopolitical risks and trade order challenges impacting global economic growth [36][40] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide a clear development blueprint, enhancing market confidence in China's long-term economic resilience [4][36] Group 3: Market Trend Predictions for 2026 - The A-Share market is anticipated to benefit from improved liquidity, with the current valuation being relatively reasonable compared to global equity markets [4][36] - Earnings growth is expected to become a key focus, driven by the deepening of China's economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [4][36] - The PPI decline is expected to narrow, potentially leading to an increase in corporate profit margins [4][36] Group 4: Style Judgments for 2026 - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the context of a favorable environment for risk appetite driven by the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and the upward trend in emerging industries [4][36] - Growth stocks are projected to continue outperforming value stocks in the first three quarters of 2026, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [4][36] - In the fourth quarter, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, market risk appetite may shift, potentially favoring value stocks [4][36] Group 5: Structural Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create significant policy dividends and industry opportunities, focusing on two main lines: new productivity driven by technology and the "anti-involution" policy promoting supply-demand optimization [4][36] - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, new energy, and quantum technology, which are highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][36] - The consumer sector is seen as a potential area for investment, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and social welfare in China's economic growth strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% for 2026, focusing on enhancing living standards and consumption [4][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% to achieve a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with a potential growth rate of 5.0% [4][6]. - The shift in macroeconomic policy since June 2025 indicates a stronger emphasis on domestic demand, particularly in the areas of social welfare and consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Allocation - The 2026 budget is expected to increase spending in social welfare areas by approximately 320 billion yuan, with a projected budget deficit of 6.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 520 billion yuan increase from 2025 [11][10]. - In a more optimistic scenario, if child-rearing subsidies and pension standards are raised, the budget deficit could reach 6.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 960 billion yuan from 2025 [11]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to enhance support for families with children through subsidies and free preschool education, with a budget of 1 trillion yuan for child-rearing subsidies and 500 billion yuan for expanding preschool education [7][8]. - For elderly care, the basic pension is expected to increase by at least 50 yuan, with additional subsidies for elderly care services projected to cost between 500 to 800 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Service Sector Growth - The article highlights the need to boost service consumption, which is expected to grow significantly as the economy transitions, with service consumption growth outpacing overall retail sales growth [13][16]. - The government plans to issue consumption subsidies funded by special bonds, focusing on sectors like tourism, culture, and sports to stimulate consumer spending [16]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Effective Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for effective investment in urban renewal and public services, with a projected issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for urban renewal projects [18][19]. - The government aims to maintain a reasonable growth rate in investment while ensuring that it aligns with high-quality development goals [17][18]. Group 6: Debt Management and Financial Stability - The article discusses the continuation of policies to manage hidden debts and repay corporate debts, with a planned issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds [23][24]. - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.18 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a slight increase from 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability while supporting growth [26].

Group 1 - The 2025 "Understanding China" International Conference will be held from November 30 to December 2 in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Layout, New Development, New Choices - Chinese-style Modernization and the New Global Governance Pattern" [3][4] - The conference will gather prominent global political figures, scholars, industry leaders, and representatives from international organizations to discuss the significance of China's 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans and the new opportunities presented by Chinese-style modernization [3][4] - The event is co-hosted by the China National Innovation and Development Strategy Research Association, the China People's Institute of Foreign Affairs, and the Guangdong Provincial Government, with an expected attendance of around 800 participants, including approximately 200 international representatives from 72 countries and regions [4] Group 2 - A notable feature of this year's conference is the increased representation from global South countries, which constitutes 70% of the attendees, indicating the growing influence of the "Understanding China" conference as a platform for sharing successful experiences of Chinese-style modernization [4] - The agenda includes a variety of formats such as keynote speeches, guest dialogues, parallel seminars, thematic forums, and closed-door discussions, with a total of 19 thematic forums and 5 closed-door seminars planned [4] - The conference aims to promote the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a new high ground for China's reform and opening-up, showcasing its unique charm and image [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the increasing public participation in cultural creation, driven by improved living standards and technological advancements, leading to a new form of shared cultural expression [1][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need to enhance cultural service and product supply capabilities to meet the growing spiritual and cultural demands of the populace [3][5]. - The plan suggests a series of targeted measures to promote cultural development, including improving cultural originality, fostering new forms of mass art under internet conditions, and enhancing public cultural services [5]. Group 2 - The article mentions various cultural activities, such as performances and live broadcasts, showcasing traditional art forms like the Su Bei drum and the Morin Khuur, indicating a revival and promotion of cultural heritage [4][6][7]. - The focus on cultural confidence and self-reliance is underscored, with an emphasis on reforming cultural systems to adapt to new public demands and ensure continuous cultural vitality [5].

Core Points - The speech by Li Hongzhong emphasizes the positive momentum in China-Russia cooperation under the strategic guidance of Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, highlighting the pragmatic and progressive nature of the comprehensive strategic partnership [1] - The Chinese Communist Party's 20th Central Committee has outlined a top-level design for China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality development and high-level opening-up [1] - Both countries aim to optimize cooperation mechanisms to facilitate collaboration between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), leveraging the China-Russia Friendship, Peace, and Development Committee as a key platform for bilateral exchanges [1] Summary by Sections Economic Cooperation - China is committed to prioritizing economic construction and advancing high-quality development while sharing development opportunities with countries including Russia [1] - The Russian side acknowledges the unprecedented height of China-Russia relations and the vast potential for cooperation across various fields [1] Forum Significance - The forum serves as an effective platform for SMEs from both countries to connect and collaborate, enhancing bilateral economic ties [2] - The Russian side is closely monitoring the 14th Five-Year Plan proposed by the Chinese Communist Party, expressing willingness to work together to bring more development benefits to both nations [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions have released strategy reports indicating that China's economy will continue to show steady growth in 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Analysts highlight that China's vast market size and strong industrial system provide significant potential for economic growth and quality upgrades [3]. - There is a consensus among various institutions that the combination of policy support, structural upgrades, and the release of potential will lead to sustained economic growth [5]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Foreign institutions predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 due to policy support. Morgan Stanley expects moderate growth under a backdrop of appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [6]. - UBS anticipates more precise policy support in 2026, contributing to overall economic resilience, while the potential of the domestic market is accelerating [6]. - A series of consumer promotion and livelihood improvement policies are expected to be key drivers for expanding domestic demand in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Confidence in Manufacturing and Exports - The "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations have instilled confidence in foreign institutions, indicating China's commitment to enhancing the competitiveness of advanced manufacturing and boosting exports [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and actual GDP growth based on these recommendations [6].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of investment and financing coordination development in the securities industry, predicting a sustained industry boom in 2026 [8][16][20] - The report maintains a "market synchronization" investment rating for the securities sector, highlighting the expected strong performance of the equity market in 2026 [8][16][20] Group 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Recommendations - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction for capital market reform, emphasizing the need for a more inclusive and adaptable market system [14][15] - The plan aims to enhance the coordination of investment and financing functions within the capital market, promoting high-quality development [15][20] Group 2: 2025 Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed securities firms showed significant recovery, with revenues increasing by 42.55% year-on-year and net profits rising by 62.38% [8][16][20] - The main drivers of this performance were retail brokerage, margin financing, and directional equity business, while fixed income and asset management businesses experienced declines [8][16][20] Group 3: 2026 Business Outlook - The brokerage business is expected to maintain high levels of activity, with average daily stock trading volumes remaining at historical highs [8][16][20] - Investment banking is projected to see a continued recovery in equity financing, while debt financing will also grow, contributing positively to overall revenue [8][16][20] - The asset management sector is anticipated to experience narrow fluctuations in revenue, with limited impact on overall performance [8][16][20] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading listed securities firms that are likely to play a pivotal role in the sector's recovery [8][16][20] - It also highlights the importance of mid-sized firms with differentiated competitive advantages and those with strong performance resilience [8][16][20] - Key recommended companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, GF Securities, Dongwu Securities, Caitong Securities, and Guojin Securities [8][16][20] Group 5: Market Trends - The securities sector is expected to experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with average valuations around 1.54 times P/B, consistent with the average over the past decade [8][16][20] - The report notes that the securities index has shown a range-bound performance, underperforming the CSI 300 index [8][16][20]

界寻找可持续发展的优先选项。 锚定未来，中国作为全球第二大消费市场，坐拥全球最大规模中等收入群体，蕴含着巨大投资和消费潜 力。 编者按：党的二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建议，擘画了中国未来五年的发展战略与实施路 径。蓝图绘就新征程。央视网《联播观察》推出《解码"十五五"》系列微视频，与您一同聚焦宏伟新蓝 图，洞察时代新脉动，解码发展新机遇，见证中国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的坚定步伐。 联播+"与中国同行就是与机遇同行，相信中国就是相信明天，投资中国就是投资未来。" 党的二十届四中全会后首次出席国际盛会，习近平主席再次向世界发出共享机遇、共同发展的真诚邀 约。 "十四五"以来，我国持续推动贸易和投资自由化便利化，外资准入负面清单不断缩减，制造业领域外资 准入限制全部"清零"，累计吸收外资超7000亿美元，新设外资企业24万多家。"投资中国"成为海外工商 "十五五"规划建议提出一系列拓展双向投资合作空间的务实举措，包括落实好"准入又准营"、缩减外资 准入负面清单等。这将进一步擦亮"投资中国"金字招牌，同时为外资企业营造更加稳定、透明、可预期 的营商环境，让其在中国顺利发展，在全球竞争中抢占先机。 总监制 ...