是说芯语，欢迎关注分享 加入"中国IC独角兽联盟"，请点击进入 投稿 、 商务合作 请微信 dolphinjetta 针对 美国商务部工业和安全局要求断供中国EDA软件供应的要求， 西门子在昨日发布了一则 声明 ： " 5月23日 ，美国商务部工业和安全局通知Siemens Industry Software Inc.，对向中国客户 和全球中国军事产品终端用户出口电子设计自动化（EDA）软件和技术采取新的控制措施。 在我们 应对这些新出口管制的复杂性并评估对我们的业务和客户的影响时，我们限制了对出口管制分类编 号（ECCN）3D991 和3E991下的软件和技术的访问 。 150多年来，西门子一直为中国客户提供支持，并分别与美国和中国的利益相关者合作，以减 轻这些新限制的影响。西门子将继续为世界各地的员工和客户提供支持，他们正在使用我们的技术 来改变日常生活。 " ...

>>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 出口管制催化，供需或加速错配 ， 具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见 完 整版 报告。 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 外盘稀土涨价为锚，内盘价格或随着出口许可下发形成海外"反向收储"通道。 由于海外的中重稀土氧化 物及磁材主要依赖中国供给，我们认为 2024 年以来稀土价格处于较低位置，海外终端需求方出于经济利 益考量，保持较低库存运行，从中国出口量也可以看出海外并未大规模补库。但中国此次实行中重稀土管 制后，海外中重稀土价格大幅上涨，将激发海外刚性需意求的补库愿。据 SMM ，中国从 5 月中旬开始 已经向部分稀土磁材生产商发动出口许可，随着合规化稀土磁材出口恢复正常，海外涨价有望向国内传 导。 复盘来看，中国实施出口管制的金属品种，多数有明显涨价。 2023 年以来中国先后对锗、镓、锑、钨、 碲、铋、钼、铟、中重稀土等金属品种实施出口管制，这些小金属品种多数在国防军工、电子信息、航 空、精密制造等领域扮演重要地位，从价格表现来看，中国实施出口管制后，多数品种实现了较大幅度的 价格上涨。 中国实施中重稀土出口管制后，海外中重稀 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：美国需要更多的出口管制执法人员。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to tighten regulations on foreign companies listing in the U.S., emphasizing the need for fair competition and a non-discriminatory business environment for all companies, including Chinese firms [2] - China will take necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises in response to the U.S. actions [2] Group 2 - China's export control measures on rare earths are in line with international practices and are non-discriminatory, not targeting specific countries [4] - The export controls have reportedly affected Japanese automaker Suzuki, which has paused production of its main small car due to delays in parts procurement [4] Group 3 - The U.S. announced a comprehensive entry ban for citizens from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Iran, which may impact international relations and cooperation [5] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry highlighted the importance of personnel exchanges as a foundation for international cooperation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's export control on rare earths as a strategic move to counter the United States' attempts to dominate global technology and supply chains, highlighting the escalating trade tensions between the two nations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Manufacturing - China's rare earth export restrictions have significantly pressured the U.S. government, particularly affecting its advanced manufacturing sectors [2]. - The U.S. is facing potential supply chain disruptions in critical industries such as automotive, aerospace, and military contracting due to China's control over rare earth supplies [1][5]. Group 2: U.S.-China Supply Chain Dynamics - The ongoing U.S.-China supply chain competition has roots in previous trade tensions, with U.S. companies relocating factories to countries like Vietnam and Mexico to mitigate risks [5]. - Since 2022, the U.S. has expanded its semiconductor export control measures to prevent advanced technology from reaching China, which has faced resistance from American industries [5]. Group 3: China's Regulatory Measures - China has implemented a new export licensing system for rare earths, requiring individual permits for each shipment, which enhances monitoring of the end-users and supply chain [6]. - The Chinese government has clarified that delays in rare earth exports are due to the new approval system rather than intentional obstruction [6]. Group 4: Diplomatic Tensions - The article notes that the U.S. has been increasing trade tensions by introducing new discriminatory measures against China, which has led to accusations of China violating trade agreements [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has urged the U.S. to correct its actions and work towards a stable and sustainable economic relationship [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing challenges faced by European manufacturers due to China's tightening of rare earth export controls, which could lead to significant costs and potential production halts for these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Issues - The China-EU Chamber of Commerce has indicated that European manufacturers are currently in a severe situation due to the ongoing export controls on rare earths imposed by China [1][2]. - The application process for export licenses has experienced significant delays, complicating the situation for European firms [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is reportedly working to address the increase in export license applications, but the lack of a sufficient transition period has left companies with little time to adapt [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Relations - The tightening of rare earth export controls is part of China's broader strategy to respond to the trade war with the United States, which has included retaliatory tariffs on various industrial products [1]. - Since the temporary suspension of most additional tariffs between China and the U.S. in mid-May, other retaliatory measures have been paused, but the export controls on rare earths remain in effect [2].

根据美国地质调查局（USGS）的数据，中国占全球稀土产量的近70%。由于美国在许多高端产品（从 战斗机到电动汽车）中极度依赖稀土，稀土管制被广泛视作中方反制美方的一张王牌。 中国商务部新闻发言人何咏前5月29日在例行新闻发布会上表示，对具有明显军民两用属性的物项，实 施出口管制是国际通行做法。作为一个负责任的国家，中国对相关物项实施出口管制，体现了坚持维护 世界和平与地区稳定的一贯立场。 报道称，关键矿产出口问题已成为中美之间的一个焦点。5月中旬，作为与美国贸易缓和的一部分措 施，中方暂停了对28家美国实体的出口管制禁令，其中可能包括部分稀土。 2025"相约春天赏樱花"经贸洽谈活动，中国美国商会会长何迈可发表讲话。视觉中国 根据出口管制相关法律法规规定，中国商务部于2025年4月4日和9日分别发布了第21号和22号公告，共 将28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单。 商务部发言人上月表示，为落实中美经贸高层会谈的共识，决定自2025年5月14日起，在90天内暂停上 述相关措施。出口经营者如需向上述28家实体出口两用物项，应当根据《中华人民共和国两用物项出口 管制条例》相关规定向商务部提出申请；商务部将依法依规进 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that due to U.S. export controls, China's HBM technology gap is narrowing, with Changxin Storage (CXMT) aiming to produce HBM3/3E by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: HBM Technology Development - China currently lags 3-4 years behind global leaders in HBM3 technology, but this gap is expected to close due to advancements in AI chip production capabilities [2][3]. - Changxin Storage's entry into the 1z nm DDR5 production has reduced its DRAM technology gap from 5 years to 3 years compared to market leaders [2][3]. - The rapid progress in HBM production in China may lead to increased competition and price volatility in the global DRAM landscape [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitors - The Chinese semiconductor ecosystem is becoming more competitive, with local solutions emerging across various segments, including chips, substrates, and assembly [4][5]. - By 2027, approximately 37% of wafer manufacturing capacity is expected to be concentrated in China, with significant growth in mature node semiconductors [5][6]. - The introduction of GDDR7 as a potential substitute for HBM in gaming GPUs could fill the gap in AI inference, with expected revenue growth of around $400 million from GDDR7 sales [2][7]. Group 3: Changxin Storage (CXMT) Production Plans - Changxin Storage plans to begin small-scale production of HBM2 by mid-2025, with HBM3 and HBM3E development accelerated to 2026 and 2027, respectively [14][19]. - The company aims to achieve a monthly HBM production capacity of approximately 100,000 wafers by the end of 2026, expanding to 400,000 wafers by the end of 2028 [18][20]. - Changxin Storage's DDR5 production is set to increase to 110,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, representing 6% of global DRAM capacity [19][20]. Group 4: Hybrid Bonding Technology - China leads in hybrid bonding patents, which are crucial for advanced HBM production, with significant advancements made by Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) [21][22]. - The hybrid bonding technology is expected to enhance the performance and yield of HBM products, with major manufacturers considering its implementation in future HBM generations [27][28]. - The competitive landscape in hybrid bonding is shifting, with Chinese companies developing local solutions that could help close the technology gap with global leaders [23][26].

以下文章来源于东不压桥研究院 ，作者南极土著 东不压桥研究院 . 关注地缘政治竞争中的科技政策与数字治理，仅代表个人观点，与作者所在的组织无关。 今天彭博社发布报道，透露美国政府计划借鉴财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）针对SDN清单主体子公司 的"50%规则"，规定： 上了商务部实体清单的公司持股50%及以上的子公司，也受到和实体清单企业等同的出 口管制。 DeepSeek 通过马来西亚和新加坡这些第三国绕过美国严格的出口管制，获取了先进的英伟达芯片，你打算怎么 解决这个问题。 OFAC的"50%规则"是判断下属公司是否受到制裁的重要标准。具体而言：如果某一被列入SDN（特别指定国 民）清单的实体，直接或间接持有另一家公司50%或以上的股份或权益（包括投票权），那么该下属公司即使 没有被单独列名，也会被视为SDN实体，同样受到制裁。 此外，如果多家SDN清单上的实体共同直接或间接持有某公司50%以上的股份或权益，那么该公司同样被视作 SDN。这种情形在实际操作中常常涉及交叉持股、多层级持股等复杂股权结构，是"50%规则"实务适用中的难 点。 根据彭博社的这个报道，"知情人士"透露：美国官员正在起草一项规定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of new U.S. export restrictions on EDA (Electronic Design Automation) software sales to China, highlighting the responses from major companies like Synopsys and Cadence regarding these regulations [3][7]. Group 1: Company Responses - Synopsys has received a notification from the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regarding new export restrictions, leading the company to suspend its annual and quarterly forecasts due to uncertainties in the Chinese market [3][5]. - The CEO of Synopsys, Sassine Ghazi, indicated that the new restrictions broadly prohibit the sale of their products and services in China, effective from May 29, 2025 [3][6]. - Specific measures taken by Synopsys include halting sales and deliveries in China and blocking new orders, as well as disabling access for Chinese customers to SolvNetPlus and related services [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Cadence also received a notification from BIS, stating that exports of certain EDA software and technology to China require prior approval, indicating a complex regulatory environment [6][7]. - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests that the comprehensive restrictions from the U.S. represent a significant blow to the EDA sector, affecting major players like Synopsys and Cadence [7].