Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a "near - strong, far - weak" view on cotton. It shows the current situation of the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the situation of US cotton [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 14,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 14320 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.49% - 0.51%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.24%, and the night - session closing price was 20535 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 68.84 cents/pound with a 0.41% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 673,094 lots, an increase of 286,459 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 919,015 lots, an increase of 35,587 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 10,517 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 20,012 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,585, a decrease of 58, and the effective forecast was 223 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 97, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.70% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.73%. The price in Shandong was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 0.50%, and in Hebei was 15,393 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.52%. The 3128B index was 15,354 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan or 0.54%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound with no change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.88%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was sluggish, and some high - price quotes began to lower the basis. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different basis quotes for self - pick - up in the region [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market changed little, but there were potential restocking and speculative demands from downstream due to continuous price increases. The price of all - cotton grey cloth increased, with some small orders increasing and urgent delivery times, but the overall market was still sluggish with limited improvement. Currently, fabric mills still faced high inventory pressure for regular varieties, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, supported by the expectation of a possible trade agreement between the US and other countries. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and the average weekly export sales data of US cotton limited the increase. As of the week ending July 10, the export shipment of US cotton in the 24/25 season was 156,400 bales, a 35% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average. The net sales of US cotton in the 25/26 season increased by 73,000 bales [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, representing different levels of bullish or bearish views, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price spreads, as well as macro and industry news, and concludes that the cotton market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.18% daily increase, and 13,945 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.69% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,050 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.35% daily increase, and 20,140 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.45% increase; ICE cotton futures for December closed at 68.57 cents/pound with a 0.68% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 297,507 lots, an increase of 95,684 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 845,684 lots, a decrease of 9,262 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,077 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 21,168 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,716, a decrease of 91 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, an increase of 7. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,264 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,362 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan compared to the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan compared to the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent compared to the previous day; the price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 22,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Price Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 price spread was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton has not improved, and textile enterprises mainly purchase on a need - to - basis, with the overall basis remaining stable. Different regions and varieties have different sales basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has not improved, and the overall atmosphere is dull. Textile enterprises continue to reduce production by lowering the operating rate, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The trading of all - cotton grey cloth is dull, the increase in the grey cloth transaction price is less than that of cotton, and the losses continue. Grey cloth orders are mainly small and scattered, the sales of finished product inventory are scarce, and some weaving factories said that sales improved only after price cuts, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly for the second consecutive day. The weather forecast shows that the weather in the US cotton - producing areas will be dry in the next two weeks, which triggered some short - covering [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks obvious driving factors, and the futures price is oscillating [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,875 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The price of ICE Cotton No.12 was 68.11 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.02% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 201,823 lots, a decrease of 64,689 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 854,946 lots, a decrease of 9,135 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 5,384 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,210 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,807, a decrease of 43, and the valid forecast was 216, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, an increase of 7, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 84 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the price in Hebei was 15,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.99 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39%. The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan, and the arrival price was 22,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis is stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market remains dull, and the turnover has changed little. Spinning mills continue to reduce their production capacity. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the actual transaction price remains the same. Weaving mills maintain on - demand and low - price purchases [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, mainly due to bargain - hunting and technical support. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton rose to 54%, compared with 52% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year [3]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15163 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 49 元/吨。2024/25 北疆机采 4129 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price lacks effective drivers and remains in a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session price was 13,775 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session price was 20,050 yuan/ton; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.96 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,050 lots, a decrease of 200,500 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 854,338 lots, a decrease of 9,073 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,335 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,023 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,211, a decrease of 62 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 301 with no change; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, with no change, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,204 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,212 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.25 cents or - 1.63% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of cotton has changed little, mostly for the rigid - demand procurement of textile enterprises, and the overall basis has remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the overall offers are few, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the basis of 2024/25 Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 and above, for self - pick - up in the inland; the 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was traded at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The market of pure - cotton yarn has shown little change recently, and the yarn prices have remained stable. The cash - flow losses of inland textile enterprises exceed 500 yuan/ton, the downstream demand is sluggish, and textile enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains cold. Currently, manufacturers are mostly looking forward to the start of autumn orders in July. The domestic sales are light, with few inquiries. Some weaving factories reported that they have been on business trips to visit customers recently but have received few orders. Individual weaving factories reported that they have no orders and face great operating pressure in July, considering further production cuts [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. The higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton put pressure on ICE cotton, but external factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices provided support for ICE cotton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Optimistic sentiment drives the cotton futures price to fluctuate and rise [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 had a closing price of 13,845 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.62% and a daily increase of 0.29%. Its trading volume was 250,977 lots (down 833 from the previous day), and the open interest was 875,506 lots (up 11,714) [1]. - CY2509 had a closing price of 20,170 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32% and a daily increase of 0.22%. Its trading volume was 7,428 lots (down 1,999), and the open interest was 21,860 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 had a price of 69.32 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.81% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,302 sheets (down 32), and the effective forecast was 295 sheets (unchanged) [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 2 sheets (unchanged), and the effective forecast was 3 sheets (down 1) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 15,010 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) [1]. - Cotton in Shandong was priced at 15,115 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (0.61%) [1]. - Cotton in Hebei was priced at 15,018 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan (0.72%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,109 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (0.59%) [1]. - The international cotton index M was 76.27 cents/pound, up 1 cent (0.71%) [1]. - Pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,933 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spot trading was mostly sluggish, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Partial basis - locked transactions occurred, and the overall basis remained stable. The sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5) was CF09 + 1300 - 1600, with some low - price supplies at 1250 - 1300 and corps supplies at 1650 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck changed little [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn stopped falling and rebounded, with little change in the mainstream price. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, but the acceptance was average. The pure - cotton fabric market remained sluggish, with few recent orders and slow shipment. The performance of home textile grey fabrics was also worse than before, and many weaving factories in Nantong had no new orders and continued to reduce production [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, benefiting from the overall optimistic market sentiment. The market was waiting for the USDA's area outlook and quarterly inventory report early on Monday [1][2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory showing a mixed picture. The basis is bullish as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is bearish according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market trend shows a bullish signal on the disk, but the main position is bearish. Overall, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export rush period, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: USDA's June report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. ICAC's June report indicates that in the 25/26 season, the global production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. In May, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.21 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. China imported 40,000 tons of cotton in May, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. The Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season in China is a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,020 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1300 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season shows an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: US cotton has a slight rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. The financial market has generally turned optimistic, and the Sino - US trade dispute has been temporarily put on hold. The center of Zhengzhou cotton is slowly rising, and the upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: It shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of cotton in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2025/26, with detailed data and month - on - month changes [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the global cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory from 2017 to 2024 [14]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2024/25 to 2025/26 seasons includes data on beginning inventory, sown area, yield, production, import, consumption, and ending inventory [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The USDA June report shows that for the 2025/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. The ICAC June report indicates that for the same period, the production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 production at 625 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 823 million tons [5]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,883 yuan, with a basis of 1273 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season is 823 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - The 20 - day moving average of the cotton futures price is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. - The main positions in the futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5]. - The US cotton has a slight rebound, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. Considering that the textile industry has entered the off - season, the upward momentum of the 09 main contract will not be strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 13,600 - 13,700 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period in the future, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis shows a neutral situation overall, with mixed signals from production, consumption, and inventory data from different sources. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bearish. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered for the 09 main contract due to the off - season in the textile industry [5]. - Bullish factors are the reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the futures price near historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in foreign trade orders, and increased inventory [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2547.2 million tons (a decrease of 17.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast), consumption is 2563.8 million tons (a decrease of 7 million tons), and the total import is 975.8 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons), and the total export is 975.1 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2600 million tons, and consumption is 2570 million tons [5]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons [5][16]. - **Customs Data**: In May, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5].