【东方汇理：美联储降息预期及新主席人选消息令美元承压走弱】东方汇理高级策略师David Forrester 指出，美国公布喜忧参半的经济数据后，市场加大了对美联储12月降息的押注，美元因此走弱。 Forrester认为，凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选的消息，也导致美元承压。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The aluminum market is waiting for guidance, the alumina market is under pressure and declining, and the cast aluminum alloy market follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,465, with a change of 85 compared to T - 1. LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,813, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of SHFE and LME aluminum contracts have different degrees of change. The LME注销仓单占比 is 10.97%, down 0.36% from T - 1. The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread is -31.16, up 1.72 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract is 2,727, down 9 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also show changes. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract is -35, and the cost of buying near - month and selling consecutive first inter - period arbitrage is 26.78 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,705, up 70 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest have decreased [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price is 5,887, with no change compared to T - 1. The processing fees of aluminum rods and bars in different regions have different changes. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 5,361.90, up 80.00 compared to T - 1. The import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M have different degrees of change. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 60.40 million tons, with no change compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,85୧, with no change compared to T - 1. The arrival price of alumina in Lianyungang in dollars and yuan per ton has different change trends [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea and the price of Yangquan bauxite have no significant changes compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -142, up 166 compared to T - 1. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,700, with no change compared to T - 1. The combined inventory of three places is 49,904, down 296 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,630, with no change compared to T - 1 [1]. Market News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on November 25 that Trump may announce the new Fed Chairman before Christmas. Bessent also advocated that the Fed should return to its behind - the - scenes role before the financial crisis and play down market intervention. The current Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the December meeting is still expected to achieve the third interest rate cut [3]. - Trump's chief economic advisor, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, is considered the leading candidate for the Fed Chairman. Hassett is believed to be highly consistent with Trump's economic view, including the view that interest rates should be lowered [3].

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director, Hassett, is seen as the leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman [1] Group 1 - Hassett's potential nomination could influence monetary policy direction in the U.S. [1]

美国财长贝森特：特朗普很有可能在12月25日之前宣布美联储主席人选。债券市场迎来自2020年以来最 好的一年。政府关门使美国GDP减少了1.5%，至少损失了110亿美元。美联储理事们似乎倾向于降息。 ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

来源｜总台环球资讯 编译、视频｜王昆鹏 编辑｜罗光旭 签审｜李琳 监制｜刘轶瑶 当地时间11月18日，美国总统特朗普在白宫会见来访的沙特王储兼首相穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。在回答有 关美联储新主席人选的提问时，特朗普表示他已经面试了一些人，并且心中已经有了人选。 特朗普再次对现任美联储主席鲍威尔表达不满，他的任期将于明年5月结束。特朗普称，"很想把在任的 那家伙（鲍威尔）现在就赶走……但人们在阻止我。他的工作很糟糕。事实是，我们已经如此成功，我 们已经超越了他的愚蠢的利率。他一直都做错了。所以我管他叫太迟先生。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump believes he has identified his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, while claiming that someone is preventing him from firing the current leader, Powell [1] Group 1: Potential Candidates - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed down the candidates to current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Riedel [1] - Trump mentioned that there are some surprising names as well as some conventional ones that everyone is discussing [1] Group 2: Future Considerations - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to maintain a careful balance between Trump's desire for low interest rates and the need to sustain investor confidence [1]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 特朗普：我想我已经知道我的美联储主席人选了。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hassett has not yet undergone a formal interview for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 1 - The potential candidate, Hassett, is still in the process of being considered for the role [1]

Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, as indicated by President Trump [1] - Kevin Hassett is a conservative economist and a loyal supporter of "Trumpism," likely to maintain low interest rates to support economic growth, potentially challenging the Fed's independence [2] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is seen as a hawkish figure who may prioritize financial stability and inflation risks, having criticized quantitative easing [3] - Christopher Waller, the current Fed governor, is expected to continue the cautious, data-driven policy approach of the current Fed leadership under Powell [4] Group 2 - The selection of the Fed Chair is crucial as it influences global financial markets, affecting interest rate cycles, the strength of the dollar, and market liquidity [5][6][7] - The potential outcomes of the candidates' selections could lead to different monetary policy paths, with Hassett being the most dovish, Warsh being hawkish, and Waller representing continuity and stability [9][10]