Core Viewpoint - The White House is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, accusing him of lying or mismanaging the $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, potentially paving the way for his removal [1][3][5]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - White House budget chief Russell Vought has suggested that Powell may have committed perjury regarding the renovation project, which has faced significant cost overruns [1][3]. - The renovation project, which involves three office buildings near the National Mall, has reportedly seen costs soar to $2.5 billion, raising concerns among lawmakers [3][5]. - Trump's administration has placed three White House advisors on the federal committee responsible for major construction project approvals, indicating a strategy to create legal grounds for Powell's removal [1][4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The current pressure tactics echo those used by President Nixon in 1972, when his administration spread false information to undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve [2][6]. - Analysts view the ongoing situation as a transparent attempt to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, with some experts warning of potential instability in the global economy if Powell is targeted [6][5]. Group 3: Internal Divisions - There are divisions within the Trump administration regarding the approach to the Federal Reserve, with some advisors advocating for the preservation of its independence [4][5]. - The recent developments have emboldened factions within the government that have long sought to challenge the Fed's autonomy, particularly in light of Powell's stance on interest rates [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The current Federal Reserve is suggested to lack independence according to the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett [1] Group 1 - The statement from Hassett indicates a potential shift in the perception of the Federal Reserve's autonomy in its decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent comments target Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, claiming current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and calling for immediate rate cuts [1] - Trump estimates that every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates adds $360 billion to the refinancing costs for the U.S., based on a rough estimate of the national debt [1] - Market response to Trump's comments has been muted, with traders expecting a 93.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's pressure [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the market is often more intelligent than politicians, as market participants will ultimately vote with their money rather than being swayed by political rhetoric [5] - It highlights the importance of how news is interpreted in the financial market, noting that institutional investors and retail investors often have different interpretations of the same news due to their differing motivations [7] - The article provides examples of how market dynamics can lead to different outcomes based on institutional participation, such as the contrasting reactions of stock prices to gold price surges in different years [8] Group 3 - The article suggests that the true driving force behind market movements is capital flow rather than surface-level news, urging investors to look beyond appearances to understand the underlying dynamics [9] - It stresses the importance of relying on quantitative data for investment decisions, as the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on employment and inflation data rather than political pressure [10] - The article advises ordinary investors to focus on real market data rather than getting caught up in political debates, emphasizing the need for a data-driven approach to investing [12] Group 4 - Key recommendations for ordinary investors include not being influenced by political disputes, focusing on actual economic data, utilizing quantitative tools for market analysis, and developing personal investment logic rather than following trends [14]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普希望美联储尽快削减美国利率，但无论如何作妖，他实际上都无法在短期内对借贷成本 产生太大影响。主要原因包括以下五个。 美联储主席只有一票 自20世纪50年代摆脱财政部的过度干预后，美联储官员就极力捍卫独立性，不会轻易屈从于政治压力。 美联储理事会改组耗时 此外，特朗普很难在短期内彻底重塑美联储理事会。理事会7名成员的任期长达14年且相互交错，目的 就是防止任何一任总统过度影响美联储。 在特朗普剩余任期内，仅有民主党任命的美联储理事库格勒的任期即将结束；其他3名民主党任命的成 员可留任至2030年代。 即便特朗普任命新主席，鲍威尔仍可继续担任理事（其14年理事任期还剩3年）。通常美联储主席卸任 后会退出理事会，但有一个例外：前主席马瑞纳·埃克尔斯（Marriner Eccles）1948年在杜鲁门总统施压 下辞去主席一职后，仍以普通理事身份留任3年，期间始终给杜鲁门制造麻烦。 美联储无法直接控制多数借贷利率 特朗普希望通过替换美联储主席鲍威尔，让顺从自己的人推动降息，但鲍威尔的主席任期要到2026年5 月才结束，且他坚称不会提前辞职。 即便鲍 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔最近老是挨骂。 当地时间7月9日，美国总统特朗普发文批评鲍威尔，称目前的利率至少高了三个百分点，给美国造成了高额的再融资成本。7月以来，特朗普多 次向鲍威尔发难，称其"糟糕透顶""太迟先生"，并称"他应该立刻辞职，我们应该找个愿意降息的人来接替他"，对美联储频繁施压。 特朗普连番炮轰鲍威尔为哪般？鲍威尔能顶住压力吗？美联储目前针对降息有什么看法？ 频繁开炮 当地时间7月9日，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"发帖批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并再次批评美联储当前的利率政策，称美联储的利率至少偏高了3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了3600亿美元的再融资成本。 "我们正在努力实现宏观稳定。"鲍威尔在论坛上表示，"要成功做到这一点，我们需要以一种完全非政治的方式来做，这意味着我们不偏袒任何 一方。" "非政治的考虑"是鲍威尔的底气，美联储有权保持其独立性。根据美国法律，虽然美联储主席由美国总统提名，但美联储并不直接对总统负责， 享有很高的独立性。鲍威尔曾表示，美联储的使命是促进充分就业和维持物价稳定，在设定货币政策时没有也不应该把政府的债务成本纳入考虑 范围内。但特朗普对美联储的频繁施压，以及对货币政 ...

美国总统特朗普宣称，除美联储主席鲍威尔外，"任何人"都能执掌美联储。这是否意味着财政部长贝森 特也可能兼任？ 特朗普在加大对鲍威尔的批评力度、呼吁降息时，用词无疑夸张，但"美联储主席同时担任白宫关键职 位"的设想，不禁让华盛顿怀疑其可行性，并查阅历史与法律文献。据报道，特朗普的部分顾问曾讨论 让贝森特身兼两职。 关于这一设想，以下是外界最好奇的一些相关问答： 美联储和财政部的关系 1913年美联储成立时，该央行在华盛顿财政部大楼办公，财政部长凭借职位成为美联储理事会事实上的 成员。但旨在增强美联储独立性的1935年《银行法》（Banking Act of 1935）终结了这一惯例。 美联储前总法律顾问斯科特·阿尔瓦雷斯（Scott Alvarez）在给《市场观察》的邮件中指出，现行法律要 求美联储理事会成员"须将全部时间投入理事会事务"。 "从法律角度看，财政部长若继续担任财政部长，同时担任美联储理事会成员或主席，似乎难度极 大。"阿尔瓦雷斯说。 角色分离的核心原因 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储前副主席斯坦利·费希尔（Stanley Fischer）解释，美联储仅拥有"工具 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the unique composition of the United States as a nation of immigrants, suggesting that traditional governance methods may fail in this context [1] - The relationship between Musk and Trump has shifted from alliance to open conflict due to differing views on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [3][4] - Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is seen as a reaction to Trump's policies, aiming to represent the people's interests but facing challenges in the existing two-party system [13] Group 2 - Musk's lack of practical experience in political governance is highlighted, noting that his previous efforts to cut foreign aid faced significant backlash [6][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, arguing that Trump's desire to control it could undermine the global trust in the dollar [10][12] - The article concludes that if the U.S. were governed like a traditional nation, it would lose its dynamism and creativity, ultimately leading to mediocrity [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has expressed strong criticism of current interest rates, claiming they are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and urging the Federal Reserve to lower rates [1][3] Group 1: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has accused Fed Chairman Powell of causing an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower rates by at least 1 percentage point, contrasting with the Fed's current rate of 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Trump's insistence on rate cuts is linked to reducing government debt servicing costs, believing that a significant rate reduction could save taxpayers approximately $800 billion [4] Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions have raised concerns about the Fed's independence, with discussions around the potential loss of credibility and the emergence of a "fiscal-led era" [4] - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and the potential for political influence over monetary policy decisions [5] - The idea of appointing a "shadow chairman" to exert pressure on the Fed has been proposed, which could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the Fed's decision-making process [5][6] Group 3: Challenges for the Next Fed Chair - The next chair will likely be viewed as someone who may be expected to follow Trump's directives, which could damage their credibility [5] - Finding a candidate willing to take on the role of "shadow chairman" poses significant challenges, as it could harm their reputation and lead to undesirable outcomes [6] - The ongoing political pressure from Trump complicates the Fed's ability to maintain its traditional non-political stance, creating uncertainty in financial markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve's current interest rates, claiming they are too high and urging for a reduction to alleviate refinancing costs for the government [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump asserts that the current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high," leading to an additional annual cost of $360 billion for refinancing [2]. - He emphasizes that there is "no inflation" and that businesses are "pouring into America," pushing for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2]. - The proposal of appointing a "shadow chairman" before Powell's term ends raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for the Next Fed Chair - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and potential compromises made for nomination, especially if they are perceived as being aligned with Trump's interest rate reduction agenda [5][6]. - Trump's push for a "shadow chairman" could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the decision-making process within the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - The market's reaction to potential early nominations and the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy could lead to confusion and volatility [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Financial markets typically dislike uncertainty, particularly in sensitive areas like monetary policy, which could lead to adverse reactions if Trump's proposals are implemented [6][8]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's stance, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [8].

两位名叫"凯文"的共和党人，目前正成为角逐下任美联储主席的最大热门。 据素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos援引知情人士透露，这两位"凯文"分别是：现 任美国国家经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 其中，之前呼声还并不算高的哈塞特，如今正逐渐成为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。他的崛 起甚至已经开始威胁到了凯文·沃什的地位。 沃什曾是该职位的早期热门人选，自从八年前特朗普未选择他而选择鲍威尔以来，沃什一直在 暗暗谋求此位。不过，一些与总统关系密切的人士担心，不属于特朗普核心圈子的沃什，可能 不会轻易支持降息。 Timiraos对此撰文形容称，瑞正在发生的事情似乎具有典型的特朗普风格：让两个雄心勃勃的 男人在一场高风险竞赛中争夺他的认可，这与特朗普曾在真人秀节目《学徒》中推崇的董事会 博弈如出一辙…… 注：红线代表哈塞特当选概率 哈塞特正异军突起？ 据知情人士透露，哈塞特在6月份已至少两次与特朗普会面讨论美联储职位的问题。这些讨论 标志着哈塞特的转变，他之前曾告诉盟友自己对此不感兴趣，但现在却表示如果被邀请，他会 接受这份工作。 现年63岁的哈塞特是一位书卷气十足的博士经济学 ...