Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Aorede (600666) experienced a significant decline of 8.61% on the trading day, with a turnover rate of 21.51% and a total transaction value of 1.774 billion yuan, indicating high volatility and trading activity [2]. Trading Activity - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of -9.00%, with a net buying amount from brokerage seats totaling 78.6188 million yuan [2]. - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction value of 350 million yuan, with a buying transaction value of 214 million yuan and a selling transaction value of 135 million yuan, resulting in a net buying of 78.6188 million yuan [2]. - The largest buying brokerage was Goldman Sachs (China) Securities, which purchased 57.9284 million yuan, while the largest selling brokerage was East Asia Qianhai Securities, which sold 48.8010 million yuan [2]. Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 145 million yuan in main funds, with a significant outflow of 133 million yuan from large orders and 12.2697 million yuan from medium orders. Over the past five days, the net outflow of main funds reached 38.6727 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - Aorede's Q1 financial report revealed that the company achieved an operating income of 98.3838 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.74%. However, the net profit was reported at -8.3320 million yuan [2].

联合电话会议：如何看待大金融板块走势的分化？ 20260629 摘要 银行板块作为核心红利资产，2022 年至 2024 年已形成强共识，受长 线资金青睐，呈现向上趋势，而央行货币政策调整预期及季末调仓需求 导致近期银行股小幅回调。 中长期来看，银行板块因其股息率相对优势（国有大行加权平均股息率 4.07%）和业绩分红确定性，对配置资金（尤其是险资）具有吸引力， 负债成本下降也为银行股上涨打开空间。 银行业绩稳定性源于丰厚的资产基础和较小的业绩波动，2024 年上市 银行整体利润增速为 2.35%，预计 2025 年保持稳定增长，自营债券浮 盈、投资收益和拨备是主要支撑因素。 边际变化显示息差降幅有望收窄，利好银行业绩增速。2025 年一季度 净息差环比下降 9 个 BP，优于 2024 年一季度下降 13 个 BP，受益于 存款利率下调等政策。 资金流向显示，2025 年以来南向资金持续增配港股银行股，公募基金 对内地市场金融板块配置比例提升至 3.75%，银行板块低配比例接近 11 个百分点，未来仍有增配空间。 Q&A 今年以来大金融板块内部走势分化的现象是什么原因导致的？ 今年以来，大金融板块内部走势分 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% on June 27, with 18 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by non-ferrous metals and communications, which increased by 2.17% and 1.79% respectively. The textile and apparel sector ranked third in terms of gains [1] - The banking and public utilities sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 2.95% and 1.01% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 19.41 billion yuan across the two markets, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows. The communications sector led with a net inflow of 2.579 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.79%, followed by the electronics sector with a net inflow of 2.435 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.92% [1] - Conversely, 23 sectors experienced net outflows, with the computer sector leading at 6.630 billion yuan, followed by the defense and military industry with a net outflow of 2.891 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included basic chemicals, automotive, and electrical equipment [1] Textile and Apparel Sector Performance - The textile and apparel sector rose by 1.23% today, with a net inflow of 195 million yuan. Out of 105 stocks in this sector, 84 stocks increased, including 6 that hit the daily limit, while 17 stocks declined [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the textile and apparel sector were Jihua Group with 288.94 million yuan, followed by Feiyada and Jinyi Culture with 165.18 million yuan and 101.35 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also saw significant outflows, with Wanlima leading at 241.76 million yuan, followed by Bangjie Shares and Nanshan Zhishang with outflows of 35 million yuan and 24.74 million yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium prices are gaining attention in the precious metals market, with expectations of breaking the 300 yuan/gram barrier amid significant increases in gold and platinum prices. However, achieving this goal requires careful consideration of supply-demand dynamics, industry changes, macroeconomic conditions, and capital flows [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The palladium market is at a critical juncture between traditional demand and emerging sectors. While traditional automotive demand remains dominant, it faces challenges from the shift towards electrification. Global sales of fuel vehicles are declining, but the rise of hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) supports palladium demand, as they require three times more palladium than pure electric vehicles. Additionally, the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is accelerating, with each vehicle requiring 50-100 grams of palladium catalyst, potentially leading to a new growth point for palladium demand [1][3]. Supply Challenges - The palladium market faces significant supply challenges, with over 75% of global production concentrated in Russia and South Africa. Geopolitical risks and power crises are affecting these major producing countries. Western sanctions have limited palladium exports from Russia, while South Africa is experiencing frequent production cuts due to electricity shortages. Although recycling technology has improved, accounting for 15%-20% of total demand, it cannot fully compensate for the shortfall in primary mine supply [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent price increases in palladium are driven by market sentiment, influenced by the recovery of the automotive industry, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain restructuring. Global fuel vehicle sales rose by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, breaking a three-year decline. Major automakers like Tesla and Volkswagen are accelerating their hybrid vehicle strategies, further boosting palladium demand. Additionally, production cuts in Russia and South Africa due to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather have led to the lowest visible global palladium inventory in nearly a decade, raising concerns about supply shortages [3][5]. Capital Flows - Palladium is becoming a key choice for capital seeking safe-haven assets due to its industrial and financial attributes. In the context of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies causing divergence in the precious metals sector, palladium prices have risen against the trend. The A-share precious metals sector has seen significant net inflows into leading stocks, indicating strong market interest in palladium [5]. Technical Analysis and Price Trends - Technically, palladium prices are expected to maintain a short-term strong oscillation trend. Domestic palladium prices are fluctuating in the range of 272-274 yuan/gram, with an average price of 273 yuan/gram, up by 2 yuan from the previous day. International palladium prices have also risen, with spot palladium increasing by 8.00%, reaching a peak of 1149.99 USD/ounce. However, to break the 300 yuan/gram barrier, palladium must overcome several resistance levels, particularly at 250 yuan/gram and 265 yuan/gram [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of palladium prices will depend on several key variables, including the stability of fuel vehicle sales and the continued increase in the share of hybrid vehicles, which are crucial for supporting traditional palladium demand. The acceleration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle commercialization will also drive demand growth in emerging sectors. Furthermore, the stability of supply and advancements in palladium recycling technology will significantly impact palladium prices [7].

个股方面，全天资金净流入的个股共有2155只，净流入在1000万元以上的有715只，其中，净流入资金 超亿元的有92只，净流入资金最多的是东方财富，今日上涨10.04%，全天资金净流入37.47亿元，其次 是天风证券、国泰海通等，净流入资金分别为12.13亿、10.22亿。资金净流出超亿元的有61只，净流出 资金规模居前的个股为贵州茅台、万马科技、中际旭创，分别净流出资金6.70亿元、5.45亿元、4.90亿 元。（数据宝） 行业资金流向方面，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业 今日上涨4.46%，全天净流入资金123.13亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨幅为2.99%，净流入资金为 67.93亿元。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，医药生物行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日上涨0.41%，全天净流出 资金23.26亿元，其次是电力设备行业，今日涨幅为1.66%，净流出资金为22.87亿元，净流出资金较多 的还有基础化工、通信、有色金属等行业。 6月25日，沪指上涨1.04%，深成指上涨1.72%，创业板指上涨3.1 ...

Group 1 - Ningbo Marine (600798) experienced a decline of 9.78% today, with a turnover rate of 21.67% and a trading volume of 1.178 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 6.11% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's watchlist due to a daily price deviation of -10.81%, with a total net sell of 33.67 million yuan from brokerage seats [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 233 million yuan, with a buying amount of 99.43 million yuan and a selling amount of 133 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 33.67 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The largest buying and selling brokerage was Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters, with a buying amount of 36.49 million yuan and a selling amount of 37.06 million yuan [3] - Over the past six months, the stock has appeared on the watchlist 12 times, with an average price increase of 1.90% the day after being listed and an average increase of 0.04% over the following five days [2] - The stock saw a net outflow of 71.78 million yuan in main funds today, with a significant outflow of 39.46 million yuan from large orders [2] Group 3 - As of June 24, the margin trading balance for the stock was 116 million yuan, with a financing balance of 115 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 761.5 thousand yuan [3] - In the past five days, the financing balance decreased by 42.54 million yuan, a decline of 26.97%, while the securities lending balance increased by 56 thousand yuan, an increase of 7.93% [3] - The company's Q1 report indicated a revenue of 392 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.54%, and a net loss of 46.45 million yuan [3]

Group 1: Recent Market Volatility - Global stock markets have shown alternating rises and falls, with accelerated sector rotation since June 2025 [2] - A-shares are fluctuating between 3200-3500 points, with growth stocks like new energy and semiconductors experiencing increased volatility, while defensive sectors like banks and consumer goods remain stable [2] - The Nasdaq index has seen daily fluctuations exceeding 2% due to tech stock earnings reports, with Federal Reserve policy expectations being a focal point [2][3] Group 2: Core Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Uncertainty in global economic recovery is evident, with the U.S. experiencing easing inflation pressures but volatile employment data, leading to debates on the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5] - European economies face recession risks due to fluctuating energy prices and weak manufacturing [5] - China's economic recovery is mixed, with consumer and investment rebounds but ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector affecting market confidence [6][7] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve's June 2025 FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish stance, cooling rate cut expectations and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which suppresses risk assets [8] - In China, the A-share market is influenced by the "New National Nine Articles," which strengthen dividend requirements for listed companies, putting pressure on some high-valuation growth stocks [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - Ongoing disruptions in energy and food supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are exacerbating global inflation expectations [11][12] - The U.S.-China relationship impacts foreign investment risk appetite in A-shares, with rising investor caution reflected in the VIX index [12] Group 5: Fund Flows and Institutional Adjustments - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have slowed, with significant net outflows on certain trading days [13] - Institutional investors are reducing holdings in high-valuation sectors, shifting towards low-valuation, high-dividend assets [13] Group 6: Divergence in Corporate Earnings Expectations - Some AI and semiconductor companies are reporting earnings below expectations, putting pressure on the Nasdaq index [14] - Domestic consumption recovery is weak, with sectors like liquor and home appliances experiencing slowed growth [14] Group 7: Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with single assets, including a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds [16] - Focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets such as banks and utilities is advised for conservative investors [16] - Implementing a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging in index funds, can help smooth market volatility [17][18] - Maintaining a cash reserve of 30%-50% during high uncertainty allows for flexibility in investment opportunities [19] - A long-term perspective is crucial to avoid emotional trading and capitalize on the inherent value of quality assets [20] Group 8: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The stock market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by monetary policy decisions, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and further easing in China [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Keri International, which closed at 27.08 yuan with a 3.79% increase, resulting in a rolling PE ratio of 23.95 times and a total market value of 5.33 billion yuan [1] - Keri International operates in the professional services industry, which has an average PE ratio of 54.98 times and a median of 36.23 times, placing Keri International at the 15th position within the industry [1][2] - The company reported a net inflow of 2.36 million yuan in principal funds on June 24, although it experienced a total outflow of 20.71 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2 - Keri International specializes in providing comprehensive human resource service solutions, including high-end talent search, recruitment process outsourcing, flexible employment, and technical services [1] - The company has received several awards, including the Best Global Human Resource Service Agency Award for 2024 and recognition as one of the Top 100 Private Enterprises in Beijing [1] - In the latest quarterly report for Q1 2025, Keri International achieved an operating revenue of 3.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.13%, and a net profit of 57.78 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.15% with a gross profit margin of 5.52% [1]

尽管年初至今涨幅不错，欧洲股市正面临投资者日益增长的怀疑情绪。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在6月20日的报告中表示，尽管年初至今欧股STOXX 600指数上涨5%，但这一涨幅完全来自于价值重估和股息收益，而 非盈利增长。 从板块表现来看，银行和公用事业板块年初至今表现最佳，而汽车和生物技术板块表现最差。银行板块受益于利率环境和估值修复，年初至今涨 幅显著。相比之下，汽车板块面临需求疲软和结构性挑战，表现持续低迷。从风格角度看，价值股明显跑赢成长股，小盘股表现略好于大盘股。 投资者对欧洲市场的担忧主要集中在两个关键问题：缺乏近期催化剂和增长动力不足。 高盛预计STOXX Europe 2025年每股收益增长率为0%，2026年仅为4%。 欧洲股市过去12个月的表现完全依赖于价值重估和股息贡献，而其他地区的回报则来自盈利和估值的混合推动。欧洲股票的市盈率已达到14.2 倍，接近历史区间的第70百分位，不再便宜。强势货币、疲弱的经济增长以及低油价都对欧洲每股收益构成拖累。 欧洲股市年初至今虽然获得了强劲的资金净流入，特别是来自国内投资者的回流，但这一趋势正在减弱。 高盛统计显示，本土投资者在过去几年持续抛售欧洲股票后， ...