1月8日，黄金，破位4400大关后，出现了一波单边的上涨行情，最高冲击至4500关口位置，但在触及 4500后，盘面价格未能冲破站稳，看来黄金逼近历史高位放缓了多头上升突破的步伐，即使是ADP小非 农数据利多，黄金多头也未有太有力的表现，最高也就在4470附近，因此，暂时黄金介于4400-4500区 间内大概率是一个震荡上行走势。 既然周三的ADP引爆不了市场，那今日周四就更难有较大动作的突破，不过从黄金上周触及4550高点大 跌之后，本周收复了绝大部分跌幅，可见黄金多头仍保持较为强势的态势，我们依然维持低多看涨思路 不变，周三周四数据波动不会太大，市场主要目光聚焦于本周五美盘大非农数据，数据前保持低多不追 涨，非常数据后再行布局。 从当前盘面走势来看，昨天下探后，多次反弹止步在4470附近，今日首先需关注4470附近压制，反弹不 破还会下探，上破之后行情走强，下一个阶段就是看向4500昨日高点以及4550历史高点是否破位；下方 支撑的话，关注昨日低点4423小双底位置，然后就是4400整数大关，4400大关看作多头生命线，守住 4400继续看多头冲击4500以及新高。 日内操作方面，黄金回踩靠近4423小双 ...

基本面与技术面在这一阶段形成了明显呼应，一方面，美国就业数据释放出的降温信号支撑了市场对2026年美联储继续宽松的预期，为黄 金中期逻辑提供托底；另一方面，美元指数的阶段性反弹与数据博弈又对金价构成短线扰动，使价格难以在缺乏新催化的情况下直接突破 技术压制。叠加地缘政治不确定性持续升温，在特朗普强硬政策风格主导下，全球风险溢价仍处于高位运行区间，黄金的避险属性并未削 弱，反而在回调过程中持续吸引中长期资金关注。总而言之，当前黄金并未进入趋势反转阶段，而是处于关键结构收敛与方向抉择的前 夜，4440美元得失将成为短线走势的重要分水岭，在该位置上方运行，市场更偏向震荡偏强并等待向上突破的机会；一旦有效跌破，则需 警惕回调向4338美元支撑区延伸的可能性，在方向正式明确之前，金价仍将维持高位震荡、节奏反复的运行特征。 从技术结构来看，当前金价正运行在一个收敛形态之中，上方受制于自前高回落形成的下降趋势线压制，下方则受到自年初低点抬升而来 的上升趋势线支撑，价格正逐步逼近关键交汇区域，波动率在压缩的同时，也预示着方向选择正在临近。短线而言，4440美元附近是当前 多空反复争夺的核心区域，该位置不仅对应前期密集成交区， ...

Group 1 - Central banks have increased their gold reserves for only 17 out of the past 60 years, and this trend is expected to continue, although gold prices may not always rise in tandem with central bank purchases [1][16] - The primary drivers for gold investment are its value preservation and safe-haven attributes, with the former being the main reason for price increases and the latter being significant due to geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts [1][15] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks has decreased from 1.225 billion ounces in 1964 to an estimated 1.166 billion ounces in 2024, despite significant monetary expansion during the same period [3][6] Group 2 - The price of gold has increased dramatically, from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2,639 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a nearly 75-fold increase, while the broad money supply (M2) has grown by 159 times during the same period [3][6] - As of the end of 2024, the market value of central bank gold reserves exceeds $3 trillion, but this still represents a low percentage of global broad money, increasing from 4.3% in 1964 to only 1.9% in 2024 [6][9] - The decrease in gold reserves among central banks is attributed to a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves, particularly in U.S. dollars, which rose from 31% of total reserves in 1960 to 77% in 2024 [9][12] Group 3 - Since 2025, the U.S. dollar index has weakened due to the continuous expansion of U.S. debt, leading central banks to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against concerns over U.S. debt creditworthiness [12][15] - The global gold stock has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the past 60 years due to advancements in mining technology, yet central banks only hold about 17.5% of this total, indicating a significant gap in potential gold reserves [12][15] - The article concludes that to enhance the international status of the Chinese yuan, it is essential to optimize the central bank's reserve structure by reducing holdings in U.S. and Japanese bonds while increasing gold reserves [15][16]

0:00 智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春：在2026年，黄金还会保持相对强势，但是绝对不会出现60%的持 续上涨幅度。价格处在高位的时候，建议大家不要只盯着黄金。未来大家对黄金和白银的投资，或者说 配置比例，要去做一个长期的、宏观的结构性判断，理解它背后的涨跌逻辑。 ...

摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 【要闻速递】 近期黄金下跌主要源于前期大涨后的获利了结。2025年底金价一度冲上4550美元历史高位，2026年初虽 有回落，但仍处超高位运行。盘中现货金最低跌至4422.89美元，跌幅达1.7%，反映部分资金锁定利润 以规避风险。 不过，尾盘跌幅明显收窄，美国就业数据疲软成为支撑因素。11月职位空缺降幅超预期，12月ADP新增 就业远低于预期，显示劳动力市场降温，强化市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期。投资者目前押注2026年 美联储累计降息61个基点。周五将公布的非农就业报告若继续疲软，金价可能快速反弹，因为低利率环 境会降低持有黄金的机会成本，利好这一无息资产。 【最新现货黄金 ...

美国将于周四公布当周初请失业金人数，周五发布的12月非农就业报告则是市场关注的焦点。市场预期 12月新增就业约6万人，失业率或小幅降至4.5%。这些数据将为评估美国经济韧性及美联储未来利率路 径提供重要依据。 若就业数据不及预期，可能强化市场对美联储年内降息的预期，进而压低实际利率，降低持有无息资产 黄金的机会成本，对金价构成支撑；反之，若数据表现强劲，金价短期或继续承压整理。 摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并 刷新阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧 有所降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并刷新 阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧有所 降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 【基本面解析】 与此同时，市场逐渐进入观望模式，静待本周美国一系列关键宏观数据集中公布。当前金价回落更多是 前期大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 黄 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's gold reserves have increased for the 14th consecutive month, reaching 7,415 million ounces (approximately 2,306.323 tons) as of the end of December, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 0.73%, with significant increases in individual stocks such as WanGuo Gold Group (03939) up 4.20% and ZhaoJin Mining (01818) up 2.97% [1] - An analysis by Anliang Futures indicates a paradigm shift in the gold market driven by global macroeconomic changes, highlighting the importance of sovereign credit risk premium, diversification of reserve assets, and improvements in microstructure as key support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 63.58% of the total index weight, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) being the largest contributors [2]

短期来看，中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜指出，美联储政策转向预期下的实际利率下行是核心驱动 力，它通过压低实际利率与美元，降低了黄金的持有成本，触发了程序化交易与投机资金的追涨。 苏商银行特约研究员张思远进一步强调，从市场运行逻辑看，黄金作为零息资产，其价格与实际利率呈 现显著负相关关系。当前美国劳动力市场疲软特征持续显现，消费者信心指数回落至2022年6月以来低 位，市场对美联储连续降息的预期显著升温，这直接降低了黄金的持有机会成本，成为推动金价上行的 核心动力。 中信证券在最新研报中也强调，在基本面因素没有出现明显变化时，基本可以断定黄金价格的大幅变动 是投机性交易驱动的。在现货市场，2025年12月上海黄金交易所的持仓量和交易量均未出现大幅抬升。 在ETF市场，截至12月19日一周，全球ETF净增持也仅有小幅增长，明显低于2025年8月底至10月中的 增持幅度，显示出机构投资者在本轮行情中参与度不高，散户也并不是上行的主要推手。因此，投机性 资金的短期买入才是黄金快速上涨的重要原因。 不过，中国房地产数据研究院院长陈晟指出，金价连续突破关键点位的核心原因，与黄金作为避险贵金 属的属性紧密相关。 张思远也 ...

光大证券指出，长周期看美元信用弱化，央行持续购金逻辑不变，继续看好金价上行。黄金现货方面， 在地缘政治局势升级、美元弱势和流动性宽松的情况下，贵金属开启趋势性上涨行情，近期因去杠杆交 易出现显著波动，但长期来看供需紧平衡与库存结构分化、美元走弱主导金融属性定价，有望带来价格 支撑。 消息面，1月7日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年末，中国黄金储备为7415万 盎司，较去年11月末增加3万盎司。中国央行本轮增持黄金始于2024年11月，截至2025年末，已经连续 14个月增持黄金。 央行连续14个月增持黄金，资金面看，黄金基金ETF（518800）连续5日净流入超14亿元，规模超300亿 元 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建 ...

Group 1: Retail Gold and Platinum Prices - The domestic gold jewelry market shows a significant price differentiation among brands, with leading brands like Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, and others maintaining high gold prices around 1390 CNY per gram [1] - The overall market price range for gold is between 1158 CNY and 1390 CNY per gram, with specific stores like South Ping Sun Gold Store and Wu Han Ya Yi Gold Store quoting prices of 1209 CNY and 1389 CNY per gram respectively [1] - Platinum prices also exhibit notable differences, with retail prices ranging from 583 CNY to 920 CNY per gram, indicating a strong brand premium effect [1] Group 2: Precious Metal Recycling Market - The recycling market shows that the gold jewelry recycling price is 998 CNY per gram, while platinum is at 533 CNY per gram [2] - There is a significant discount between retail and recycling prices for platinum, with some brands experiencing a discount rate exceeding 20%, reflecting a depreciation of brand premium in the second-hand market [2] Group 3: Financial Institutions and Professional Institutions Gold Bar Prices - Bank gold bar prices range from 1019 CNY to 1062.5 CNY per gram, with the highest price from Pudong Development Bank [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange standard gold bar is priced at 1001.5 CNY per gram, aligning closely with market benchmarks [3] - Various professional institutions have different pricing for gold bars, with China Gold Investment Gold Bar priced at 1017 CNY per gram and other brands showing price variations based on brand value and craftsmanship [3] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - The technical outlook for gold indicates a weak short-term trend, with bearish K-line structures and MACD showing limited rebound strength [5] - Key support levels are identified at 4400 points, with a potential drop below this level leading to a clearer mid-term downtrend [5] - Short-term strategies suggest treating gold for value preservation through gradual accumulation, while short-term trading should respect market trends and avoid aggressive bottom-fishing strategies [6]