市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势抄底，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上高铭鑫的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 换资前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（11月17日）现货黄金延续前两个交易日跌势，下跌约0.53%至每盎司4063美元附近。尽管黄金上 周五下跌逾2%，但成功从低点反弹，上周仍录得2%的涨幅，实现三周来首次周度上涨。这一表现彰显 了其非凡韧性——即便在政府停摆结束与贸易休战至少两项利空因素消散的背景下。上周五的下跌看似 终于击穿了黄金的韧性防线，但从周线表现来看其抗跌性依然稳固，关键技术位也未被突破。然而本 周，黄金会面临真正的压力考验、从而令前景偏向看跌吗？ 尽管周五将发布的全球PMI数据等国际宏观指标可能通过美元渠道间接影响金价，但市场焦点将完全聚 焦于美国经济。随着美国政府重启，虽然部分因 ...

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating dollar index, and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with London spot gold increasing over 56% this year and COMEX futures reaching a historic high of $4100 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold retail prices have also risen sharply, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook surpassing 1300 yuan per gram, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment and a decline in foot traffic at jewelry stores by approximately 20% [3][4] - Despite a decrease in overall gold jewelry consumption by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, sales of lightweight products (10 grams or less) have increased, accounting for 45% of total gold jewelry sales [3][4] Industry Trends - The preference for lightweight gold items among younger consumers is growing, with products like small rings and pendants becoming popular due to their affordability and design appeal [4] - Investment in gold bars and coins has increased, with consumption reaching 352.116 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 24.55%, indicating a shift towards direct investment in gold [4] - The "old for new" and gold recycling businesses are thriving, as consumers look to capitalize on high gold prices by exchanging or selling old jewelry, prompting retailers to offer promotions to stimulate the market [4] Company Strategies - Gold jewelry companies are adapting to changing consumer preferences by shifting from traditional pricing models to high-value fixed-price products, enhancing design and cultural value to improve profit margins [4] - Innovative product lines such as high-end customization, IP collaborations, and national trends are becoming crucial for brands to differentiate themselves in a competitive market [4] - Upstream companies like Zijin Mining are benefiting from rising gold prices and increased production, with a 20% year-on-year growth in gold output and a net profit increase of over 55%, making the gold sector a key driver of profit growth [4]

前言 最近刷财经新闻的朋友，估计都被黄金"秀"到了！ 一路蹭蹭往上涨，还屡次刷新历史高点，关键它不是那种几天就凉的短线暴涨，而是稳稳站在高位。 有人纳闷，这金疙瘩咋突然就成了香饽饽？ 其实真不是突然，是好几条硬逻辑凑一块，再加上最新的市场动态，才把金价抬到现在这位置。 咱们今天就看看这波黄金上涨到底靠啥，普通人该咋看。 利率+央行，双撑金价 说句实在话，过去两年黄金根本没这待遇。 那时候美国一个劲儿加息，真实利率飙得老高，大家拿着国债、货币基金就能躺赚无风险收益，谁还会 瞧得上不生息的黄金？ 但现在风向彻底变了。 截至2025年5月，美联储点阵图明明白白显示，市场普遍预期今年会有2-3次降息。 这意味着啥？真实利率要往下走，持有黄金的"机会成本"直接降低。 以前放着钱能赚利息，现在利息少了，黄金的吸引力自然就上来了。 更关键的是，还有央行在背后"托底"。 | 排名 | 30 53 | 2025年黄金储备面 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 美 国 国 | 8133.5 吨 | | 2 | 德 ■■ | 3351.5 吨 | | 3 | 意大利 | 2451.8 吨 | | 4 | 国 [ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, influenced by hawkish comments from multiple Fed officials and the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data [2][3] - As of November 17, 2025, the Gold ETF fund (159937) has decreased by 1.82%, with a recent price of 8.91 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.50% over the past week [2] - The trading volume for the Gold ETF fund was 3.91 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.02%, and the average daily trading volume over the past week was 15.36 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The COMEX gold futures price is currently fluctuating around 4100 USD per ounce, reflecting market adjustments [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 55.6%, marking a significant decline from a previous 67.3% expectation [2] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a sell-off in precious metals and a retraction of most gains made during the week [3] Group 3 - The Gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 2.45 million yuan over the last ten trading days, indicating stable investor interest despite market fluctuations [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting that gold may test lower support levels in the short term while maintaining a long-term upward trend [3]

换资前言： 天气渐凉，冬天悄无声息的到来，黄金上周前半周的热情也在周五的飞流直下中被降了降温，最近黄金 的大起大落，没有点心理承受能力，还真不能淡定从容笑看这风云，不过重要的是市场永远是对的，及 时跟上市场的步伐，不要一根筋思维，不要不撞南墙不回头，甚至还撞了南墙还不回头。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 展望本周，黄金市场的命运将系于新一轮经济数据的"风暴"之上。尽管政府重启，但缺失数据的"后遗 症"将让这些指标更具戏剧性。周一的纽约联储制造业指数将率先拉开帷幕，提供区域经济脉搏的初步 读数。周三的美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，则是市场解码10月决策的关键窗口，投资 者将从中搜寻对通胀和就业的蛛丝马迹。周四的美国9月份非农就业报告、费城联储制造业指数、周度 初请失业金人数，以及现有房屋销售数据，将进一步检验房地产和劳动力市场的韧性。周五欧美国家制 造业PMI初值PMI和密歇根大学消费者信心指数修正版，则可能放大市场波动，尤其若显示出通胀顽固 或消费疲软。此外，周五还将公布2025年10月美国各州就业与失业情况（月度数据），投资者也需要重 点关注。 11.17黄金行情走 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a probability of over 50% for a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1][2][4] - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching as high as $4245.23 per ounce, and have increased nearly 60% year-to-date, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [5][7] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by rate cut trades rather than safe-haven buying, indicating potential for further price breakthroughs if rate cut expectations are confirmed [7] Group 2 - Central banks globally have resumed gold purchases, with a total of 220 tons acquired in Q3 2025, marking a 28% increase from the previous quarter [8] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, adding 30,000 ounces in October, while global gold ETF inflows reached a record high of $26 billion in Q3 2025 [9] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has alleviated liquidity constraints, providing additional support for gold prices [9] Group 3 - Market participants remain optimistic about the potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with structural demand from official sectors providing strong fundamental support for long-term gold price increases [13] - The outlook for gold and silver prices is positive in the medium to long term (3-5 years) due to strategic allocations by central banks and the potential for global economic cooling and monetary policy easing [13] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data, as continued economic slowdown could enhance the likelihood of gold prices reaching $4200 [14]

随着金价持续攀升并伴随剧烈波动，银行端的黄金积存业务正在经历快速调整。中信银行、建设银行最 新公告显示，自11月15日起，两家银行均将积存金业务的月度起存金额明显上调，门槛普遍进入"千元 时代"。 11月14日，国际金价跳水，截至当天收盘，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司；沪金跟随下跌，当天收盘报 934.86元/克。 在国际金价高位震荡的大背景下，银行端正迎来新一轮黄金积存业务的集体调整。10月以来，多家大型 银行相继上调积存金起购门槛或调整相关交易规则，以应对价格快速波动带来的风险压力。 与此同时，国际金价近日在连续大涨后出现明显回调，市场对后续走势的判断出现分化，在机构普遍认 可黄金中长期逻辑的同时，2026年前后的短期路径仍存在较大不确定性。 银行再度抬高积存金门槛 建设银行公告称，为保护投资者权益、优化交易结构，该行修订了黄金积存业务规则，新增涉及报价机 制、巨额赎回等内容。其中，月积存金额起点由此前的较低水平提升至1200元，并按10元整数倍递增； 新规将自11月15日起正式执行。 值得注意的是，建行此次调整的核心，是将积存金买卖价差改为"动态调整模式"，允许银行依据市场行 情、头寸状况及流动 ...

那么，普通投资者应该如何看待黄金投资呢？以下三点至关重要： 金价的起伏，牵动着无数投资者的心。今年以来，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，年内涨幅突破60%，白银也紧随其后，涨幅逼近70%。然而，剧烈的波动也让许 多投资者心生疑虑。就在前不久，伦敦现货黄金经历了一次惊心动魄的暴跌，从接近每盎司4400美元的历史高位瞬间跳水，单日跌幅近7%，最低触及4082 美元，创下自2013年以来12年间的最大单日跌幅。面对如此剧烈的震荡，普通投资者不禁要问：现在入手黄金还靠谱吗？未来金价是否还能继续上涨？ 首先，黄金投资需要长期规划，切忌短视行为。投资黄金，并非着眼于近期的涨跌，而是要对未来一年甚至更长的时间做出预判。黄金价格的波动受到多种 因素的影响，其中最为关键的是人们对于黄金作为通用避险工具的共识。在这种观念的主导下，资金的流向往往会受到影响。例如，过去美元被视为全球货 币，一旦出现不利于美元信用的事件，人们对美元的信任就会下降，避险资金便会大量涌入黄金市场，从而推高金价。摩根大通的数据显示，目前民间投资 者和官方投资者持有的黄金总价值约为9.4万亿美元，而美国国债的公共市场规模高达29万亿美元。在美元信用持续下降的背景下，黄 ...

本文字数：2277，阅读时长大约4分钟 2025.11. 16 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 11月14日，国际金价跳水，截至当天收盘，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司；沪金跟随下跌，当天 收盘报934.86元/克。 在国际金价高位震荡的大背景下，银行端正迎来新一轮黄金积存业务的集体调整。10月以来，多家 大型银行相继上调积存金起购门槛或调整相关交易规则，以应对价格快速波动带来的风险压力。 与此同时，国际金价近日在连续大涨后出现明显回调，市场对后续走势的判断出现分化，在机构普遍 认可黄金中长期逻辑的同时，2026年前后的短期路径仍存在较大不确定性。 银行再度抬高积存金门槛 随着金价持续攀升并伴随剧烈波动，银行端的黄金积存业务正在经历快速调整。中信银行、建设银行 最新公告显示，自11月15日起，两家银行均将积存金业务的月度起存金额明显上调，门槛普遍进 入"千元时代"。 建设银行公告称，为保护投资者权益、优化交易结构，该行修订了黄金积存业务规则，新增涉及报价 机制、巨额赎回等内容。其中，月积存金额起点由此前的较低水平提升至1200元，并按10元整数倍 递增；新规将自11月15日起正式执行。 值得注意的是，建行此 ...

与此同时，国际金价近日在连续大涨后出现明显回调，市场对后续走势的判断出现分化，在机构普遍认 可黄金中长期逻辑的同时，2026年前后的短期路径仍存在较大不确定性。 随着金价持续攀升并伴随剧烈波动，银行端的黄金积存业务正在经历快速调整。中信银行、建设银行最 新公告显示，自11月15日起，两家银行均将积存金业务的月度起存金额明显上调，门槛普遍进入"千元 时代"。 【国际金价反复震荡，#银行积存金投资门槛升到1000元#】#银行再度抬高积存金门槛# 11月14日，国 际金价跳水，截至当天收盘，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司；沪金跟随下跌，当天收盘报934.86元/ 克。 在国际金价高位震荡的大背景下，银行端正迎来新一轮黄金积存业务的集体调整。10月以来，多家大型 银行相继上调积存金起购门槛或调整相关交易规则，以应对价格快速波动带来的风险压力。 来源：第一财经 ...