美联储博斯蒂克：目前仍预计今年将降息一次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward risk to price stability has diminished, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - As economic growth slows, a gradual reduction in interest rates is deemed appropriate [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a marginal decline, significantly weaker than seasonal trends observed in previous years, with the new orders index particularly affected [1] - Manufacturing momentum is experiencing a marginal downturn, indicating overall downward pressure on the sector [1] - Despite the challenges, the political bureau meeting has set a positive policy tone for the future, suggesting a focus on stability and progress in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance as part of its policy response, particularly if data continues to show a downward trend [1] - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a hawkish stance from Chairman Powell, with a focus on employment and inflation [1] - June inflation slightly exceeded expectations due to rising commodity prices, adding uncertainty to the timing of potential interest rate cuts [1]

非农数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次批评鲍威尔，并再次呼吁降息。 ...

Core Points - The new tariffs announced by President Trump have led to an average tariff rate of 15%, the highest since the 1930s, significantly impacting global trade dynamics [1][10] - Despite initial concerns, the global economy has performed better than expected following the tariff announcements, with some Asian economies experiencing GDP growth [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs remains high, with potential changes to tariffs on key products and ongoing legal reviews of the tariff policies [5][11] Tariff Details - The revised tariffs include a minimum rate of 10% and higher rates of 15% for countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. [1][7] - Notable increases include a punitive 39% tariff on Swiss imports and a 35% tariff on certain Canadian goods [5][10] - The average U.S. tariff rate is projected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% by August 1, compared to just 2.3% before Trump's re-election [7][10] Economic Impact - Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate has increased by 12.8 percentage points since Trump took office, potentially leading to a 1.8% decline in U.S. GDP over the next two to three years [10][13] - The tariffs are expected to raise costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, leading to reduced purchasing power [7][13] - The tariffs may also create downward risks for exporters reliant on U.S. demand, particularly affecting countries like Switzerland facing high tariffs [10][11] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tariffs, Asian stock markets fell by 0.7%, and the European Stoxx 600 index dropped over 1% [5][10] - The market's initial reaction was less severe compared to the volatility seen during the April tariff announcements [5][10] Future Considerations - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as the new tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy decisions [14][15] - There is a possibility of further tariff adjustments and negotiations, particularly concerning China, as the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance in trade relations [10][15]

美联储理事鲍曼：降息将为进一步的走弱提供对冲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a four-month low against the US dollar, raising concerns among Japanese financial officials about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 150.89 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since March 28, with the rate reported at 150.58 yen at the time of publication [3]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu expressed concerns about the current exchange rate trends, emphasizing the importance of stable currency fluctuations that reflect economic fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Predictions - Kato indicated that the US tariffs on Japan could impact the Japanese economy, and the government will continue to analyze the tariffs' effects on Japanese industries [5]. - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market Research warned that the yen could depreciate to 155 against the dollar, which could trigger intervention from Japanese authorities to support the yen [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The yen's decline is closely linked to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has been bolstered by reduced concerns over trade wars and a slightly hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve [7]. - The US dollar index surpassed 100.10 for the first time since May 29, reflecting a strong dollar environment [7]. - The Bank of Japan's dovish stance, as indicated by Governor Ueda, suggests a tolerance for the current weakness of the yen, which has led to increased dollar buying [8][10].

澳新银行：预计泰国央行今年可能再降息两次 金十数据8月1日讯，澳新银行研究经济学家在一份报告中写道，鉴于价格压力减弱和增长前景疲弱，泰 国央行今年可能会再降息两次。泰国7月份的消费者价格可能会进一步下降。这反映出原材料食品和能 源价格下跌，以及基数效应的拖累。泰国6月份通胀率较上年同期下降0.25%，核心通胀率涨1.06%。澳 新银行预计泰国7月份的总体通胀率将下降0.5%，核心通胀率将上升0.93%。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points or 1.6% to close at 24,773 points on July 31, marking the second consecutive day of significant decline[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,453 points, with total market turnover at HKD 320.6 billion, indicating active trading[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 13.13 billion, showing continued positive sentiment[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.0%, consistent with Q1 but down from 2.7% in Q4 of the previous year[2] - U.S. nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, the lowest since Q1 2021, indicating a potential weakening in domestic demand[2] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC maintained interest rates but remains cautious about future rate cuts, with inflation being a primary concern[3] - The U.S. CPI is expected to rebound in the coming months due to low base effects and tariff impacts, although core service inflation may be constrained by a slowing job market[3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector, represented by the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, fell by 1.4% without significant negative news affecting the industry[5] - Notable stocks like Tencent and Kuaishou rose against the market trend due to AI application demand, while gaming stocks like MGM China surged by 6.4%[1] Industry Developments - The semiconductor sector faced challenges with Nvidia's H20 chip safety issues, impacting related stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw slight gains[4] - The new energy and utility sectors experienced widespread declines, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, with stocks like Xinyi Solar dropping by 4.7% to 6.4%[6] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a decline of 26.1%[11] - The land transaction volume decreased by 48.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in real estate activity[14] Company Performance - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.6% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit rising by 44.4%[7] - The company announced a mid-term dividend of RMB 3.50 per 10 shares, expected to boost market confidence[9]

2025-08-01 10:33:24 作者：狼叫兽 瘦了，他瘦了，美联储主席鲍威尔，承受着特朗普各种烽火"相胁"。在7月初公开活动中，鲍威尔疲态 重申谨慎观望。他还说："若无关税，美联储可能早就降息。"一下子，各大投行喜极而泣、奔走相告 ——他，鲍威尔，松口了！ 到底他有没有这个意思？市场猜的好苦！反正黄金从暴涨到暴跌，多头、空头都吃到了实实在在的波动 红利。 图源：网络 特朗普又是吹风"换帅"，又是亲自到访，威逼美降息……只能说，这届美联储主席不好当。 7月议息刚过，就迎来非农日，市场寻寻觅觅，一路追寻"降息"线索。黄金宛如坐上跷跷板，时而猛拉 涨破3430+，时而坠落3310附近，短线交易者却未尝不欣喜：大涨、再大跌，那是双向盈利机会啊！ 一出现实版《纸牌屋》在黄金市场上演，领峰贵金属冰爽点差狂欢助阵。超低申请门槛，注资$1000→ 每手返$20；注资$3000→每手返$26。就在议息点火之际，炒金成本却降了！ 图源/领峰贵金属官网 两个男人的"决斗"，黄金闪闪发光 图源：网络 非农、通胀不寻常！抢抓8月行情窗口期 8月炎夏，人人热盼9月降息，问题来了，若当真降息，你猜黄金准备涨到哪，3400还是350 ...