Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the impact of U.S. economic indicators on gold prices. The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average, despite pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 31, gold opened at $3275.89 per ounce, reached a low of $3273.86, and peaked at $3314.81 before closing at $3289.93, marking a daily increase of $14.04 or 0.43% [1]. - The daily trading range was $40.95, indicating significant volatility and trading opportunities [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting key economic data, including U.S. unemployment rates and non-farm payroll figures, with expectations of rising unemployment and declining job numbers, which could support gold prices [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has recently strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time in two months, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 [7]. - The gold price is currently supported by an upward trend line from previous highs, indicating that any pullback may stabilize above $3000 [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is trading below the 5-10 week moving averages, with a possibility of further declines to $3200 or $3000 [9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a period of volatility, with the potential for a rebound if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in September, which could push gold prices towards $3570 [11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that gold may experience a period of consolidation before potentially rising again in the fourth quarter of the year [5][12].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：通常情况下，美联储只有在美国就业市 场显著恶化或通胀压力明显缓解的情况下，才会考虑降息。而从近期的数据来看，一方面2025年6月， 美国失业率下降至4.1%，非农部门新增就业人数达到14.7万，就业市场依然保持了相对的稳健。另一方 面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，仍然高于美联储2%的长期目标。值得注意的是近期加征关税对美国部 分商品价格的影响已经开始显现，未来通胀压力很可能进一步上升。综合来看，当前美联储不具备降息 的紧迫性和必要性，而且在特朗普关税政策及其影响高度不确定的情况下，美联储选择继续观察是合理 的一个选择。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：美联储坚持不降息，这很可能导致美联 储与白宫的紧张关系持续升级。接下来不排除特朗普可能进一步施压美联储，甚至通过人事安排等手段 影响其政策取向。如果美联储迫于政治压力提前降息，短期内可能刺激美国的消费和投资 ...

Market Overview - On July 31, U.S. stock markets opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining despite strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 330.30 points, a decrease of 0.74%, closing at 44,130.98 points; the S&P 500 dropped by 23.51 points, down 0.37%, at 6,339.39 points; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 7.23 points, down 0.03%, closing at 21,122.45 points [2] - In July, the S&P 500 rose by 2.17%, the Nasdaq increased by 3.70%, and the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.08% [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed lower, with the healthcare sector leading the decline at 2.9%; the real estate sector fell by 1.7%, and materials, financials, energy, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors all dropped over 1% [2] Company Earnings - Microsoft shares rose by 3.9%, with Q4 revenue reported at $76.44 billion, exceeding market expectations of $73.89 billion; Azure business revenue grew by 39%, and the company entered the "four trillion dollar club" [3] - Meta's stock surged by 11.2%, with Q3 revenue expected between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, significantly above analyst estimates of $46.2 billion, indicating a recovery in generative AI advertising [4] - Apple reported Q3 revenue of $94.04 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations of $89.53 billion; iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, and Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, both exceeding forecasts [4] - Amazon's Q2 revenue reached $167.7 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, significantly above the expected $162.09 billion; however, its stock fell approximately 6.8% in after-hours trading [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.8%, above the expected 2.7%; overall PCE increased to 2.6%, marking the second consecutive month of growth [5] - Labor cost index rose by 0.9%, and initial jobless claims were at 218,000, slightly below expectations [5] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming July non-farm payroll report and the deadline for tariff negotiations [5] Commodity Market - WTI September crude oil futures fell by $0.74, a decrease of approximately 1.06%, closing at $69.26 per barrel, ending a streak of increases [5] - Despite the drop, WTI saw a cumulative increase of over 8.47% in July, marking one of the strongest months of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The second quarter economic growth data in the U.S. is seen as overstated, masking underlying trends of economic slowdown, with various media outlets suggesting that the economy remains under pressure from tariffs and other policies [1][3][4]. Economic Growth Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, a significant rebound from a contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [1]. - The increase in GDP is primarily attributed to a decline in imports, as businesses opted to deplete existing inventories rather than increase imports, which positively impacted GDP calculations [3]. - The final sales to domestic purchasers, a key indicator of economic health, only grew by 1.2%, marking the weakest performance since Q4 2022 [3]. Investment and Consumer Spending - Business investment in equipment slowed from 23.7% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, indicating a cautious approach from companies amid economic uncertainty [3]. - Analysts suggest that the real economic growth rate for the first half of the year is only 1.25%, down from 2.3% in the same period last year, highlighting a significant slowdown [4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, reflecting caution due to economic uncertainties stemming from government policies [5]. - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more cautious outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity [5]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The upcoming week is critical for the U.S. and global economy, with significant economic data releases and corporate earnings reports expected [7]. - The core issue remains the ongoing tariff negotiations, which will significantly influence global trade dynamics in the second half of the year [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1] - Since January's meeting, there has been ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell to lower interest rates, including threats of dismissal, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that if the upcoming PCE price index shows persistent inflation, market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period may solidify [1][2] - Economists predict that the core PCE month-on-month rate will rise from 0.2% to 0.3% [1][2] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, market sentiment shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 80% to 40% [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent policy stance was anticipated, with Barclays Bank's U.S. interest rate strategy head stating that the market should focus more on the delayed start of rate cuts, expecting the first cut to occur in December [5] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Powell emphasized that the conditions for a rate cut are not currently met due to a strong labor market and high inflation [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April, as indicated by swap contracts [5] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook, with businesses starting to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [6] - Powell suggested that the Fed views the price increases from tariffs as potentially temporary, which may influence their decision-making [6] - The complexity of the inflation path is prompting some investors to adopt defensive strategies, such as increasing holdings in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [6]

值得注意的是，尽管黄金价格在利率决议公布后表现相对稳健，但鲍威尔随后在新闻发布会上缺乏明确 前瞻性的言论，削弱了市场对年内降息的信心。GTC泽汇表示，这种"数据依赖型"表态令投资者陷入观 望，黄金作为非息资产在高利率环境下吸引力受到一定抑制。 与此同时，部分市场分析人士认为，鲍威尔虽未正面释放降息信号，但讲话中仍透露出偏向宽松的语 气。例如，他提到长期通胀预期依旧锚定在2%目标附近，并认为关税带来的价格压力属于短期现象。 GTC泽汇认为，这可能意味着在通胀没有持续性走高的前提下，美联储仍具备政策调整的空间。 联邦储备主席鲍威尔近日重申，美联储在是否降息的问题上仍持观望态度，这一表态显著打击了市场对 9月宽松政策的预期，令黄金价格面临短期压力。GTC泽汇表示，当前的政策语境缺乏明确指引，使得 市场风险偏好与避险情绪之间出现反复，黄金走势因此呈现调整格局。 从市场预期变化来看，鲍威尔讲话后，降息概率有所回落，反映出投资者对短期宽松的信心削弱。GTC 泽汇表示，尽管如此，部分经济学家依旧认为9月存在政策调整的可能性，尤其是在未来经济数据若出 现走弱的情况下，委员会可能会选择先发制人的应对策略。 尽管本次会议如市场普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].

美国财长贝森特：不确定不降息的理由是什么。为美联储主席候选人列出一份好名单。美联储委员会将 有两席空缺。 ...