（文章来源：金十数据） 特朗普：鲍威尔又不降息，他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化了，不适合担任 美联储主席。 ...

但鲍威尔手握通胀数据这道防火墙。尽管整体通胀有所回落，核心PCE物价指数仍停留在2.6%，距离2%目标尚有差距。他深知1970年代政治干预央行引发 的滞胀灾难，在美联储内部会议中反复强调：决策必须基于经济数据，而非政治压力。面对特朗普不降息就换人的威胁，他在镜头前那个微小的摇头动作， 成为技术官僚最后的无声抵抗。 特朗普这个人最大的毛病，就是志得意满！本来这件事只出了80分的成绩，他偏要说自己做到了100分。 前几天，美国总统特朗普在摄像机簇拥下径直走向主席鲍威尔，这是二十年来首次有在任总统踏入这个全球金融权力的圣殿。他借视察大楼翻新工程之名， 手指天花板抛出质问：31亿美元！远超预算。 特朗普话音未落，鲍威尔面无表情地摇头纠正数据错误。这场精心编排的逼宫戏背后，特朗普真正目的昭然若揭：当面施压美联储立即启动降息。 PAN 8 3 rig the 27200 20000 15 12 483 are 7 2 2 011 0-11 AND START arm ar sing in 20 03 11 - 6 ten The a are all 018 TIPE AM rall and Press of the st ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with no guidance on a potential rate cut in September [1] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, primarily due to reduced consumer spending and weak exports, although business investment, particularly in equipment and intangible assets, has increased [3] - The housing market remains weak, with a long-term shortage in housing supply and insufficient construction rates [3] Employment Market - Powell expressed an optimistic view on the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is still outpacing inflation, providing support for consumption and economic stability [4] - There are no clear signs of weakness in the job market, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to rush into rate cuts [4] Inflation Concerns - Powell stated that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target is more than halfway complete, with service inflation slowing but goods inflation rising [6] - As of June, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7% [6] - Tariffs are identified as a new variable affecting inflation, with some goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs, leading to a slight increase in market inflation expectations [6] Tariff Details - Powell elaborated on tariffs, indicating that their impact on prices is slower than previously anticipated, and the current inflation data reflects only the beginning of tariff-induced inflation [7] - He emphasized the challenge of isolating the effects of tariffs from overall price changes, as prices are a composite result [7] - The Fed aims to ensure that price increases due to tariffs do not evolve into persistent inflation, balancing the timing of their actions to avoid unnecessary harm to the job market [7] Future Guidance - The Fed has not provided strong signals for the market, neither committing to a September rate cut nor closing the door on future cuts, opting instead to observe incoming data [10] - Powell highlighted the importance of upcoming data releases in determining the Fed's next steps, including inflation trends, the ongoing impact of tariffs, and labor market resilience [10] - The market is advised to remain patient and await clearer signals before making assumptions about potential rate cuts [10]

7 月 FOMC：降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨，美联储公布 7 月议息结果，联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾，本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息，对利率决议投反对票，是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来，鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温，两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击，且就业市场有走弱风险，建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多，历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近（加息或降 息），因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号，关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温，关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限，且经济稳定降温的格局，二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%，但主要是关税抢进口停止后，净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致，2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，美国6月核心PCE物价指数将于北京时间今晚20:30公布。昨日公布的二季度核心 PCE物价指数年化季率高于预期，暗示6月或出现通胀回升势头。但若数据不及预期，料推动9月降息的 押注升温。届时警惕行情波动…… 查看更多重要日程 今晚必盯！美联储最青睐通胀指标来袭 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 7 月 FOMC：降息预期继续推迟 证券研究报告 7 月美联储议息会议点评 7 月 FOMC：会议声明偏鸽，鲍威尔依旧谨慎 7 月美联储议息会议将联邦基金目标利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间，符合市 场预期，是去年 12 月降息之后，连续第 5 次按兵不动。 会议声明：偏鸽派，指出经济放缓风险。会议声明删除了"经济活动持续 稳健扩张"，改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"；删除了"经济前景的 不确定性有所减弱"；反映出相比于 6 月，委员会对经济前景的担忧上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表态：温和鹰派。一方面，对 9 月降息保持谨慎，表示 尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定，无法在下次会议上依据 6 月的点阵图（即 今年一共降息 50 bp）来做决策。 另一方面，强调对通胀担忧，表示商品通胀正在上升，关税正在推高一些 商品价格，核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税，合理的基本预期是关税对通 胀造成短期影响。 降息预期推迟，9 月降息的概率跌破 50%。根据美联储观察工具，FOMC 会议结束后，市场预期 9 月维持利率不变的概率升至 54.8%（1 天前为 35.4%）；预期年内只有 1 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说，美联储尚未就9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 美国有线电视新闻网报道截图 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析说，这次美联储维持利率不变 符合市场预期。 按照美联储的解释，现在美国的物价仍然略高于通胀目标，二季度的国内生产总值（GDP）比一季度要好，而且优于 市场预期，且失业率处于低位。但从美联储视角来看，要考虑防止通胀反弹。 由于未来存在一些不确定性，比如关税政策从8月份开始生效，整个8月份为美联储评估关税对美国物价的冲击提供了 一个时间窗口，所以美联储选择维持利率不变。 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 美联储公开市场委员会当天发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放缓，失业 率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。 此前，美国财长贝森特曾暗示，鲍威尔应 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is facing uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with two distinct scenarios being considered: one indicating potential economic weakness hidden beneath stable data, and the other suggesting resilience driven by AI investments and household wealth growth [1][4][6] - The current low unemployment rate of 4.1% may create a false sense of security about the job market, as there are signs of a weakening labor market, including a high number of workers not seeing wage growth and a decline in consumer spending on non-essential items [2][3][4] - Consumer spending is shifting, with reductions in travel and dining expenses, while essential costs like housing continue to rise, indicating a potential strain on the economy [3][4] Group 2 - There is a contrasting view that the warning signals regarding the economy may be overstated, with key factors such as AI investment and wealth accumulation potentially offsetting negative trends [4][5] - Economic challenges have persisted, including rapid interest rate hikes and regional banking crises, but some analysts believe that unless unforeseen shocks occur, a comprehensive recession is unlikely [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach, keeping options open for future rate decisions while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other economic factors [6][8]

美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上说，"我们有两位反对者"，他们表达了自己的立场。关于 降息，每个人都有其想法和论点。不过，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数成员认为目前的通胀水平略高于 目标，而当前的利率则处于适度限制水平。鲍威尔表示，"仍有很多不确定因素"，如果降息过早，可能 无法完全解决通胀问题。 声明称，在考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以 及风险平衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒两位美联储理事投票反对继续维持利率不变。他们主张 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。此外，阿德里安娜·库格勒理事缺席未投票。 《华尔街日报》报道说，这是自1993年以来首次出现多位美联储理事在联邦基金利率决策过程中投 反对票的情况。美联储利率决策由12名成员组成的联邦公开市场委员会投票决定，其中7人是美联储理 事。 中新社纽约7月30日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会30日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。这是美联储今年连续第五次"按兵不动"。此次决策过程中，有两位理事 罕 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impacts - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, leading to a nearly 18% drop in COMEX copper futures prices [1] - President Trump signed an order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, with specific exemptions for certain products [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change [4][5] - Fed officials expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, while geopolitical tensions and tariff policies may increase market volatility [9][10] - Gold prices experienced a significant decline following the Fed's announcement, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.72% [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may face short-term resistance due to resilient U.S. economic data and reduced uncertainty in trade policies [11] - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could rise as U.S. debt yields and the dollar index trend downward, supported by strong physical demand for gold [11]