Core Points - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.51% on May 27, closing at 99.521 [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro exchanged for 1.1337 USD, down from 1.1381 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound exchanged for 1.3511 USD, down from 1.3562 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 144.26 Japanese Yen, up from 142.77 Yen the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 0.8272 Swiss Francs, up from 0.8208 Francs the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 1.3795 Canadian Dollars, up from 1.3736 Dollars the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 9.6103 Swedish Krona, up from 9.5163 Krona the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a V-shaped rebound, currently at 99.03, slightly up by 0.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 98.5-99.2 [1] - Federal Reserve officials are signaling a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic stating that the potential for rate cuts this year may be limited to 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 50 basis point cut [3] - Concerns about stagflation in the US economy are growing, and if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows signs of a deteriorating job market, the dollar's safe-haven appeal may be impacted [3] Group 2 - The upcoming durable goods orders data for April is a key focus, with expectations of a significant decline to -7.9%, down from a previous growth of 9.2%, primarily due to a sharp drop in Boeing orders [4] - If the actual durable goods orders data is significantly weaker than expected, it may heighten concerns about the weakness in the US manufacturing sector, further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [4] - Conversely, a rebound in the durable goods orders data could alleviate market worries regarding the negative impacts of tariffs, providing temporary support for the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a rebound, with notable movements in various currency pairs, particularly the USD/JPY which has seen a significant short-term increase [1] Currency Movements - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 10 points, currently standing at 99.16 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) has decreased by 10 points, now at 1.3729 [1] - The British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) has fallen by nearly 20 points, currently at 1.3541 [1] - The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) has increased by nearly 40 points, now at 143.16 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, attributing it to various factors including positive developments in US-China trade talks and a general depreciation of the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On May 26, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates surpassed 7.17, marking the highest level since November 2024, with the onshore rate closing at 7.1843, up 52 points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate against the US dollar was significantly raised to 7.1833, an increase of 86 points, the largest adjustment since January of the same year [1][2]. - In May, the onshore RMB appreciated by 906 basis points, while the offshore RMB rose by over 1,000 points [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The depreciation of the US dollar has been a key driver for the appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB, with the dollar index dropping by 0.84% in May [2]. - Concerns over the US fiscal health and the potential for increased government debt have contributed to the dollar's decline, particularly following the passage of Trump's fiscal bill [2]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies, such as interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, have bolstered the RMB's resilience against external fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Implications of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB can enhance its attractiveness and reflect market confidence in the Chinese economy, potentially benefiting the stock market [3]. - However, a stronger RMB may reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exports, which could negatively impact domestic employment [3]. - It is suggested that maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is crucial while expanding domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB - Future RMB movements will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the trajectory of the US dollar [4]. - The article indicates that the most significant pressure for RMB depreciation may have passed, with expectations of a more stable RMB compared to other major currencies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by both domestic and international factors, with the RMB reaching its highest level since November 2024, reflecting market confidence in China's economic stability and growth prospects [1][3][4]. Domestic Factors - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding expectations, which has bolstered investor confidence in the RMB [1][4]. - Continuous implementation of policies aimed at supporting consumption and effective investment has contributed to a stable macroeconomic environment [4][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports economic recovery while managing liquidity [7][8]. International Factors - The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the US fiscal deficit have weakened the US dollar, providing room for the RMB to appreciate [1][5][6]. - Market apprehensions regarding US economic prospects, exacerbated by poor results from US Treasury auctions and trade policy disputes, have led to a decline in the dollar index [1][5][6]. Market Trends - As of May 26, the offshore RMB reached a peak of 7.1614 against the dollar, marking a 0.10% increase and a 1.45% appreciation over the past 20 days [3][4]. - The dollar index experienced a drop of approximately 0.41% on the same day, indicating a new downward trend for the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the RMB may experience short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium, influenced by US tariff policies and domestic countermeasures [1][9]. - Long-term projections indicate that as China continues to advance its high-quality development initiatives, the RMB is expected to gain a more significant role in the global monetary system [1][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) continues, with both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates surpassing 7.17, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of May 26, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1843, up 52 points from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 7.1674. The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.1616, averaging 7.17. In May, the onshore RMB rose by 906 basis points, while the offshore RMB increased by over 1,000 points [1]. - The People's Bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.1833 on May 26, a significant increase of 86 points, the largest adjustment since January of this year [1]. Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, driven by concerns over the US fiscal health and the impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration [2][3]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and accelerated fiscal spending, have bolstered the resilience of the Chinese economy against external fluctuations, providing internal support for the RMB [2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note that the appreciation of the RMB is influenced by the strengthening of other Asian currencies, such as the Korean won, and the easing of external depreciation pressures due to positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. - The narrowing of the exchange rate gap between onshore and offshore RMB indicates strong motivation among overseas institutions to support RMB appreciation [3]. Economic Implications - Continuous RMB appreciation can enhance its attractiveness and reflect market confidence in the Chinese economy, potentially benefiting the stock market. However, it may also reduce the competitiveness of export goods, impacting domestic employment [3]. - Maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports, as excessive appreciation or depreciation could destabilize the Chinese economic fundamentals [3][4]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the performance of the US dollar. The complexity of resolving high tariff issues suggests that RMB fluctuations will continue, but the likelihood of sustained unilateral appreciation is low [4]. - The RMB is expected to experience a dual-directional fluctuation process against the dollar, with relatively smaller amplitude compared to other major currencies, indicating a more stable outlook [4].

Group 1 - The decision by President Donald Trump to delay higher tariffs on the EU has significantly boosted currencies closely tied to global trade, causing the dollar to drop to its lowest level in nearly two years against a basket of currencies [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, nearing its lowest level since July 2023, following Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for the 50% tariffs on the EU to July 9 [1] - The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar saw substantial gains, with the Australian dollar rising to 0.6537 USD and the New Zealand dollar reaching 0.6032 USD, both at their highest levels since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has cumulatively declined over 7% since 2025, erasing all gains from the previous year, which recorded the largest annual increase since 2015 [1] - Concerns over tariffs and the extension of tax cuts during Trump's first term have led to growing worries about the U.S. government's fiscal situation, resulting in a weakening demand for the dollar [1] - The delay in EU tariffs has provided support to G10 and emerging market currencies, with the euro rising by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since April [1] Group 3 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have declined, indicating that yields are expected to rise by more than three basis points, although global Treasury spot trading is paused due to a U.S. holiday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the underlying factors and potential implications for the market. Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has dropped approximately 0.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 8.92% [2] - The dollar index opened at 99.0858 and reached a low of 98.6921, indicating a significant downward trend [2] - The euro and British pound have strengthened against the dollar, with the pound reaching its highest level since February 2022 [2] Group 2: Chinese Yuan Performance - The onshore and offshore yuan have both surged, with the offshore yuan breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.1648, the highest since December 2024 [3][4] - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 86 basis points to 7.1833, marking the highest since April 2 [4] - Over the past month, the dollar to offshore yuan exchange rate has decreased from 7.42 to a low of 7.1616, reflecting a rise of over 2500 basis points [4] Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - Six key reasons for the yuan's appreciation include improved trade conditions, a weakening dollar, inflow of safe-haven capital, recovery of the Chinese economy, positive policy expectations, and stable exchange rate pricing mechanisms [6] - A report from China International Capital Corporation suggests that if concerns about the US fiscal deficit persist, the yuan may continue to benefit from a weaker dollar, maintaining a moderately strong trend in the short term [7] Group 4: Economic Uncertainty and Market Outlook - The US economy faces uncertainty due to inflation concerns and potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with officials indicating that a clearer economic picture may take several months to emerge [9][10] - Analysts warn that high tariffs could negatively impact corporate earnings, with estimates suggesting a 3% decline in overall earnings due to a 10% tariff affecting 30%-40% of revenues from overseas for S&P 500 companies [10] - There are concerns that the optimistic earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies may need to be revised downward, potentially affecting stock prices [10]

Currency Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to 96.2, down 0.5% week-on-week; the BIS RMB exchange rate index dropped to 101.79, down 0.57%, marking a new low since September 2023; the SDR RMB exchange rate index decreased to 91, down 0.42% [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1895, up 142 basis points for the week, reaching a new high since November 8 of the previous year; the offshore RMB against the USD rose by 376 basis points, closing at 7.1722 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction results were poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February of this year; the yield reached 5.047%, marking the second time it exceeded 5% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, indicating economic contraction, with the services PMI dropping to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024 [4] Foreign Investment and Trade - In April 2025, foreign capital net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, indicating a high level of foreign investment; foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying in late April [2] - China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached 329.68 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a simultaneous decrease in loan and deposit rates, with the one-year and five-year LPR down by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for the third consecutive month [7]