Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced mixed results on July 28, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached new historical highs [3] - The Nasdaq rose by 0.33%, closing at 21,178.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.02%, closing at 6,389.77 points [3] Key Events and Data - The upcoming week is termed a "super week" for the U.S. market, with significant events including earnings reports from major tech companies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and critical employment and inflation data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 29-30 is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current interest rates and a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut [7] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. and securing commitments for the purchase of $750 billion in U.S. energy products [4][5] - The agreement also includes a $600 billion investment from the EU in the U.S. and a commitment to purchase military equipment [4] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, eight out of eleven sectors declined, with real estate and materials leading the losses at 1.75% and 1.44%, respectively [9] - The energy and technology sectors led the gains, with increases of 1.15% and 0.77% [9] Notable Company Movements - Nvidia reached a new all-time high with a market capitalization exceeding $4.3 trillion, as it prepares to enter the memory market [10] - Tesla's stock rose by 3.02% following the announcement of a $165 billion chip contract with Samsung [10] - Meta Platforms is expected to report strong Q2 earnings, with projected revenues of $45.5 billion, surpassing market expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% this week, with potential dissent from dovish members Waller and Bowman, indicating a possibility of faster rate cuts in the future as more Trump-appointed officials join the board [1] Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at Platts, Urupeirsi, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week [1] - Dovish members Waller and Bowman may argue for a rate cut, citing restrictive monetary policy due to inflation related to tariffs being offset by other factors [1] - The neutral interest rate is suggested to be close to 3%, which could support arguments for lowering rates [1] Group 2 - Powell is expected to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October compared to September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a potential bullish outlook despite current pressures from trade negotiations and a strengthening US dollar [1][4][6]. Market Performance - On July 28, gold opened lower at $3321.78, reached a high of $3344.99, and closed at $3314.39, marking a decline of $24.11 or 0.72% from the previous close of $3338.50 [4]. - The trading range for gold is expected to remain between $3000 and $3500 in the short term, with key support levels at $3300 and $3270 [8][12]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently within a three-month consolidation triangle, indicating potential for a rebound, especially if it holds above the 100-day moving average [1][14]. - The ZZ indicator suggests a bottoming pattern, while MACD signals a bearish trend, indicating mixed signals for future price movements [10][14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [6]. - The expiration of the US trade agreement on August 1 is a critical date, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [6][7]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that regardless of trade agreement outcomes, gold prices may not face significant downward pressure, with a bullish trend expected in the long term due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][11]. - The potential for a rebound in gold prices is supported by the expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a bullish market for gold in the coming year [7][11].

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。 纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特 朗普政府8月1日关税最后期限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌 64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨 1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | ...

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特朗普政府8月1日关税最后期 限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报 44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) increased nearly 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) surged 10% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.24% to 564.02 points, with a total market turnover of 250.3 billion HKD [5] Group 2 - The international oil market saw a rebound, with WTI crude oil rising 2.85% to $66.70 per barrel, marking a two-week high, and Brent crude oil increasing 2.91% to $69.57 per barrel [3][6] - Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3,314.63 per ounce, while silver prices remained unchanged at $38.17 per ounce [3][6] - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, closing up 1% at 98.633 points, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield at 4.417% [3][6]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.02% [1][8] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the sixth consecutive trading day, while the Nasdaq set a record for the 14th time this month, marking July as the month with the most record highs since December 1999 [8] Sector Performance - Popular technology stocks mostly rose, with notable gains from AMD (up over 4%), Nvidia (up over 1%), and Tesla (up over 3%) [1][9] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector, along with the oil and gas sector, saw significant gains, with Nabors Industries rising over 6% [1] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.38%, closing at $66.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.34%, closing at $70.04 per barrel [5] - In the precious metals market, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $3314 per ounce, and silver futures decreased by 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.69%, with major Chinese stocks like iQIYI down over 3% and NIO down over 1% [2][11] - Alibaba saw a slight increase of 1.77%, while other Chinese stocks like Pinduoduo and Baidu experienced declines [12][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, but the market is closely watching for signs of potential rate cuts starting in September [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Analysts believe that clarity regarding interest rate decisions has not yet arrived, allowing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The Fed has signaled the possibility of needing to cut rates, but officials are waiting to assess the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy [4][5]. - The current economic conditions are not significantly different from a few months ago, despite a slowdown in growth [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employers continued to add jobs in June, despite the economic slowdown [6]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with tariffs increasing the risk of sustained high inflation [7]. - The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, with officials outlining the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market perceives that the Fed's patience may soon wane, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [8]. - The Fed will have access to July and August employment reports to evaluate whether the job market is slowing down [9]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Some economists believe that waiting until September for a rate cut may be too late, with the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year [10]. - Analysts expect Powell to reiterate that any decisions will depend on data [11]. - There is a growing divide among Fed officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and the need for patience [15][17]. Group 5: Reasons for Rate Cuts - Two Fed officials have shown a tendency towards rate cuts, citing signs of economic slowdown despite a seemingly normal economy [13]. - Lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers could provide support before further economic deterioration [14]. - Concerns about inflation driven by tariffs are present, but some officials believe these effects may take time to fully manifest [16].

特朗普：聪明人会降息。 ...

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