一旦掌握這7個人生複利公式，你的人生將開始快速成長 https://youtu.be/Uz0awqTLJeA 會員頻道的內容會依照這7個公式，一步步陪你實踐 👉 加入會員頻道，從第1個公式開始實踐：https://bit.ly/goldenrich-members ☕️ 如果你想免費支持我們，這裡有個簡單的方法： 👉 https://bit.ly/GET-IBKR 🙏 點擊連結沒有任何費用，每次點擊都能幫助支持我們的頻道。IB盈透證券：全球領先、備受信賴的投資平台，交易覆蓋150個市場，低成本、資金靈活，是多元化投資的理想選擇！ (Disclosures: https://bit.ly/content-disclosure) 全球放水正式啟動！爆富門票已開搶，美聯儲降息，財富版圖全面洗牌！這是黃金十年開端，還是資產泡沫倒數？ 2025年9月18日，市場等了一整年，美聯儲終於鬆口，宣布降息25個基點，把聯邦基金利率調降到4.00%到4.25%。這是自2024年12月以來第一次政策轉向，也是2025年第一次降息。這一動作，正式宣告近三年的緊縮週期結束，也算是今年最大不確定性事件的落幕。真正的關鍵在後面，資產重估、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, similar to gold, a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tonight's PCE inflation data and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - The US second - quarter GDP was significantly revised up to a 3.8% increase, the highest in two years, with the previous value at 3.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] Fed Officials' Speeches - Fed Governor Bowman believes that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation. This year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thinks the more the balance sheet shrinks, the better. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is a bit worried about excessive early rate cuts based on the slowdown in employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also believes that it is too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [2]

来源：智昇财论 据报道，有8家原油公司与伊拉克政府库尔德地区政府达成协议，库尔德地区的原油供应即将恢复，使 得供应过剩的担忧加剧。夏季需求高峰已经过去，OPEC+持续增产，供应增速超过全球原油需求增 速，不利于油价的上涨。 技术面：原油周二（9月23日）从62美元一线持续反弹，昨日最高触及65.38美元的位置，短线走势偏 强。日线表现为震荡下行，上方的空间或有限，65-66美元的阻力区域需密切留意，若不能上破则将继 续维持61.50-65美元区间宽幅震荡甚至转为下跌。日内下方关注64.68美元的多空分界线。 美元指数：昨日公布的数据显示，美国8月耐用品订单录得增长2.9%，大幅高于前值的下降2.7%，也好 于预期的下降0.5%；美国截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，前值为23.2万人，同样好于 预期。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，近期的数据显示美国就业市场的风险在上升，降息的选择是合适的，当 前美联储的政策略显限制性，未来的货币政策依然需要数据来做决策。 技术面：美元昨日延续涨势，从上周议息会议之后接连上涨，小时图表现为震荡上行，98的阻力位已经 突破，今天若是进一步上涨则可能冲破空头的最后一 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 65,826 kilograms, with an increase of 192 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 854.00 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 859.04 yuan and a low of 850.74 yuan, with a current price of 856.06 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - Trading volume for the day is 270,430 contracts, with open interest at 264,305 contracts, showing a decrease of 2,324 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate is at an appropriate level to address inflation and employment risks, indicating no urgency for significant rate cuts [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan supports a one-time 0.50% rate cut, noting that inflation is close to the 2% target when excluding temporary tariff effects, leading to a reduction in market bets on rate cuts to about 33% for the year [2] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with increased frequency and scale of Russian airstrikes, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets, which may limit the decline in silver prices [2]

前言 聊起美国经济，最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事，这是资本的本质，也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号，但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题，早就不是"降多少息"，而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上，美联储和白宫的角力，已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确：短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业，言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来，降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题，毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业，但坏就坏在，美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标，而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据，特朗普对此震怒，随即解雇劳工统计局局长，任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态，认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整，但政策风向已明确：特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率，其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾：若就业数据被"修饰"，原本低迷的数据被调整 ...

Gold - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that failing to quickly lower interest rates could harm the economy, advocating for significant rate cuts to return to neutral levels, proposing a 50 basis point cut followed by 125 basis points in the next two meetings [1] - UBS Global Wealth Management predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut rates in the coming months, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by Q1 2026 [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that the expectation of rate cuts, following Powell's hint on August 22, has led to a rise in gold prices due to weakening economic data [1] - Technically, gold shows a bullish trend on weekly and monthly charts, with a potential upward movement if it breaks above $3,760, targeting $3,790 and possibly $3,850 next week [1] Oil - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized final value recorded at 3.8%, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating strong economic resilience [2] - Eight oil companies have reached agreements with the Kurdish regional government in Iraq, leading to concerns about oversupply as Kurdish oil supply is set to resume [2] - The summer demand peak has passed, and OPEC+ continues to increase production, outpacing global oil demand growth, which is unfavorable for oil prices [2] - Technically, oil rebounded from around $62, reaching a high of $65.38, but faces resistance in the $65-$66 range; if it cannot break through, it may continue to fluctuate between $61.50 and $65 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. durable goods orders for August increased by 2.9%, significantly better than the previous decline of 2.7% and the expected drop of 0.5% [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were recorded at 218,000, down from 232,000, also better than expected [3] - Kansas City Fed President George indicates that recent data shows rising risks in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that rate cuts may be appropriate [3] - Technically, the dollar index continues to rise, breaking through the 98 resistance level, with a potential to breach 98.80 if the upward trend continues [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend on the daily chart, with a high probability of further increases [4] - The hourly chart indicates a high-level consolidation, with an upward shift in low points, suggesting an impending directional decision [4] - A drop below 45,230 could lead to a deeper correction towards 44,530, while a breakout above 45,890 could extend the upward trend [4] Copper - Copper prices failed to maintain upward momentum, peaking at $4.86 before falling below the critical support level of $4.74, indicating potential further declines [5] - The focus for the day is on the resistance at $4.74 and support at $4.62 [5] Market Overview - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the importance of focusing on employment rather than inflation, with various members expressing differing views on the appropriateness of rate cuts [6] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a ban on diesel exports, which will last until the end of the year, and extended the gasoline export ban [6] Upcoming Data/Events - The U.S. will release August PCE data and personal spending month-on-month at 20:30 [7] - Federal Reserve's Barkin will speak at 21:00 [8] - The final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and one-year inflation expectations will be released at 22:00 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates in the coming months, which will boost Asian currencies and U.S. stocks, particularly favoring Chinese technology companies [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - UBS forecasts a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of Q1 2026, following the first rate cut of the year last week [1] - The firm expects that the U.S. economy will not enter a recession, with U.S. stocks projected to achieve mid-single-digit percentage gains by mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Chinese Market Outlook - UBS maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks, anticipating further upward movement in the Chinese stock market as household savings flow into the market [1] - The report indicates that the average appreciation of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar is expected to be 4% over the next 12 months [1] Group 3: Company Performance and Sector Analysis - Companies included in the MSCI China Index are projected to see a 3% year-on-year increase in earnings by Q2 2025, with stable revenue growth [1] - Non-bank financial, technology, and healthcare sectors are expected to perform well, with internet companies showing double-digit growth in quarterly earnings [1] - Chinese companies are optimistic about their operational conditions, emphasizing cost control and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' savings are increasingly directed towards financial investments, particularly in high-quality projects that can generate stable cash flow, aligning with national strategic directions [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Financial investments are becoming more attractive, especially in sectors related to technological innovation and high-quality development, such as new infrastructure and urbanization [1] - The underlying assets of these new projects are closely aligned with major national strategies [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The external environment is providing support for Chinese asset prices, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, although a significant reduction is not anticipated in the short term [1] - The focus will remain on proactive fiscal policies complemented by moderately loose monetary policies in the near future [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including weak employment, high debt, and economic uncertainty, leading to a complex situation that requires careful management [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [3]. - The rate cut aims to stimulate economic activity, reduce unemployment risks, and alleviate debt pressure, but it also carries risks such as potential inflation, weakened dollar value, and asset bubbles [6][20]. Group 2: Economic Symptoms - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing three intertwined symptoms: high inflation, weak employment, and a debt crisis, making it difficult to find effective treatment [3][4]. - Maintaining high interest rates could help alleviate inflation but would negatively impact economic growth and increase the burden of debt servicing [4]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the severity of the economic situation, exemplified by the dissenting vote from new Fed Governor Stephen Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [12][15]. - Milan's opposition reflects differing assessments of the economic condition, with some believing that the current measures are insufficient to address the urgent needs of the economy [16]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast predicts a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, slightly higher than previous estimates, but indicates a long-term growth rate of only 1.8%, suggesting a prolonged recovery period for the U.S. economy [22]. - The unique combination of high inflation and high debt presents unprecedented challenges, making historical comparisons less relevant for current conditions [23].