Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant adjustments due to the announcement of a 100% tariff increase by the U.S. on China, leading to a drop in the Hang Seng Index by 1.52% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.82% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,889.48 points, with intraday declines exceeding 3% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 6,145.51 points, with intraday declines exceeding 4% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, there is cautious optimism regarding the Chinese economy and the Hong Kong stock market due to strong economic fundamentals and competitive capabilities [1][3] - The trade conflict is not a reflection of China's economic weakness but rather its robust growth and global competitiveness in various sectors [1] Group 3: Policy Measures - The likelihood of China implementing monetary easing measures, such as interest rate cuts and special government bond issuance, is high, which may mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - China's export share to the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to an estimated 14.7% in 2024, indicating a reduced dependency on the U.S. market [2] Group 4: Market Valuation - After recent adjustments, the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market has returned to approximately the average level of the past 30 years, suggesting a relative valuation advantage compared to major global markets [2]

9月30日至10月7日，人民日报连续发声，八篇"仲裁文"权威解读中国经济风向，跨越量变与质变。今天 这条视频我们就一起来学习一下，八篇文章到底讲了哪些事儿，传递了哪些重要的信息。 ...

Economic Stability - Domestic economic data shows marginal stabilization, with the PMI recorded at 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 in August, indicating a slight recovery after a slowdown in July and August [1][6][7] - The EPMI for September increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, reflecting seasonal recovery trends [6] - The BCI index rose from 46.9 in August to 51.1 in September, slightly exceeding expectations [6] Foreign Reserves and Monetary Policy - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion at the end of September, an increase of $165 billion from August, marking a continuous rise after a brief decline in July [1][6][7] - The central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,406 million ounces at the end of September, up by 40,000 ounces from August, marking 11 consecutive months of increases [1][6][7] - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan on October 9, aimed at maintaining liquidity stability post-holiday [1][6][8] Travel and Tourism - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 6, the average daily cross-regional movement of people reached 295 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [2][8] - The national migration scale index showed a year-on-year increase of 20.3% during the same period [2][9] - Predictions indicate that daily inbound and outbound travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays will exceed 2 million, with total cross-border travel expected to increase by over 35% compared to last year [2][12][13] Retail Market Performance - The retail market showed stable growth, with key retail and catering enterprises' sales increasing by 3.3% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday [3][14] - Sales of green organic food on major e-commerce platforms rose by 20.1%, while energy-efficient appliances saw a 19% increase [3][14] - Movie box office revenues during the holiday period averaged 246 million yuan per day, down 18.0% year-on-year, with attendance also declining by 9.8% [3][14] Real Estate Market - National real estate sales were weaker than the previous year, with average daily transactions in 30 major cities dropping by 19.0% year-on-year during the holiday [3][15] - First-tier cities showed relatively stronger performance, with sales in first, second, and third-tier cities recording year-on-year changes of 5.2%, -31.9%, and -24.7% respectively [3][15] Port Activity and Exports - Port container throughput remained strong, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% from September 29 to October 5, indicating robust export growth [4][17] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated investigations into trade barriers following Mexico's anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products [4][17][18] Technological Advancements - Significant breakthroughs were reported in the technology sector, including advancements in solid-state lithium batteries and enzyme catalysis research [4][18][19] Policy Insights - Recent articles in the People's Daily have focused on the current economic situation, emphasizing the resilience and vitality of China's economy under the leadership of the central government [4][20][21]

央视网消息：国家发展改革委9月29日举行新闻发布会，发布会上相关负责人介绍，8月份，我国经济运行总体平稳，有信心实现全年目标 任务。 商务部欧洲司副司长王宇鹏称："其中，瑞典、丹麦对华投资额均超过50亿美元，位居欧洲国家的前列。北欧企业普遍看好中国经济发展 的前景，看重中国超大规模市场的潜力。" 商务部：去年中国与北欧贸易额达531.7亿美元 商务部9月29日举行专题新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人介绍，2024年中国与北欧国家的贸易额达到531.7亿美元，增长8.5%。 今年1至8月，中国与北欧5国的贸易额达到379.6亿美元，同比增长7.1%，增速是同期中欧贸易的两倍多。北欧企业持续加码在华投资，截 至目前，北欧5国累计对华直接投资超过了150亿美元。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超介绍，从供给侧看，生产平稳增长，制造业、服务业的重点领域增势良好。从景气程度看，工业企业利润 明显改善。从需求侧看，以旧换新相关商品零售额继续保持较快增长，服务消费潜力不断释放，信息服务业，航空、航天器及设备制造业等投 资较快增长，有力支撑产业升级发展。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超称："下一步，我们将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether China's economy could follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with insights from economists on the current state of China's economy and the lessons learned from Japan's past experiences [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan experienced a significant appreciation of the yen, leading to a short-term economic boom followed by a severe asset bubble burst, contrasting with China's current economic policies which have effectively avoided such a scenario [3]. - China's real estate prices surged rapidly but began to decline after 2021, indicating a proactive approach to prevent a housing bubble similar to Japan's in the early 1990s [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy has remained relatively tight compared to Japan's historically loose monetary stance, which has helped prevent asset prices from reaching the levels seen in Japan during its bubble period [3]. - The Chinese government has learned from Japan's experience and has maintained a stable monetary policy to avoid excessive asset inflation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both economists express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, citing Japan's experience where high government debt (250%-260% of GDP) did not lead to sustainable economic recovery [5]. - The short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus are acknowledged, but the long-term impact on market vitality and innovation remains questionable [5]. Group 4: Shift in Economic Logic - China's economic focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and quality-driven economic development [7]. - The belief is that China has absorbed lessons from Japan's economic history, suggesting that it is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with optimism for future economic prospects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around whether the Chinese economy might follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with a focus on current economic conditions and policy responses [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The conversation features insights from renowned economist Tang Ya and Professor Xu Yuan from Peking University's National School of Development, analyzing the lessons from Japan's "Plaza Accord" and the resilience of the Chinese economy [1][4] - The analysis includes a review of China's efforts in monetary, fiscal, and real estate policies to avoid past mistakes made by Japan [1][3] Group 2: Program Details - The program "Two Says" will air on September 17 at 22:30 on Oriental TV and on September 20 at 22:00 on First Financial [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of the Chinese economy repeating the mistakes of Japan's economic bubble, analyzing current economic conditions and policy measures taken by China to avoid such pitfalls [1]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - The discussion includes insights from renowned economist Tang Ya and Professor Xu Yuan from Peking University's National School of Development, focusing on the lessons learned from Japan's "Plaza Accord" [1]. - The analysis emphasizes the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst various challenges, including monetary and fiscal policies [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The article highlights the efforts made by China in areas such as exchange rates, interest rates, real estate, and fiscal policy to mitigate risks associated with economic bubbles [1].

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the resilience of the Chinese economy, highlighted by steady industrial production and strong growth in new momentum industries [2] - The service sector is experiencing accelerated development, with modern service industries growing at a rate exceeding double digits [2] - Consumption policies are showing gradual effectiveness, contributing to the overall economic performance [2] Group 2 - Investment structure is optimizing, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment upgrades emerging as key highlights [2] - The article raises questions about which new momentum sectors are accelerating and where the focus for future growth will lie [2]

Group 1 - The summer economy is thriving, showcasing the immense potential of consumer spending in China [1][2] - The cultural and tourism market is vibrant, with popular IPs driving the "park economy" [1] - The total box office for summer films has exceeded 11.6 billion yuan, with over 300 million viewers, surpassing last year's figures [1] Group 2 - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - Investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China this year, reflecting confidence in the economy's resilience [2] - Diverse consumer demands have emerged, from chilled beverages to vacation products, indicating a shift towards improved living standards [2] Group 3 - High-quality development is emphasized as a primary task for building a modern socialist country, with consumption playing a leading role in economic growth [3] - The implementation of supportive policies is strengthening the role of consumption in driving economic resilience [3] - The focus on new technologies and innovative consumption models is expected to enhance consumer willingness and contribute to high-quality economic development [3]