专题：2025第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛 新华社天津6月24日电 题："不论是中期看还是长远看，我都对中国经济抱乐观态度"——专访世界经 济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德 新华社记者朱超、刘红霞、张宇琪 第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛6月24日至26日在天津举行。世界经济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德23日接受新华社 记者专访时表示，在世界经济形势严峻复杂背景下，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，"不论是中期看还是长 远看，我都对中国经济抱乐观态度"。 本届论坛吸引了来自90多个国家和地区的1700余名政、商、学、媒体界代表参会，人数创近年新 高。"环顾世界，众多国际工商界人士希望投资中国，也期待同中国深化贸易合作。"布伦德说，这在全 球贸易面临与日俱增的关税和非关税壁垒背景下尤为可贵。 他高度评价中国在绿色发展方面取得的显著成就。国际可再生能源署数据显示，近年来全球风电和光伏 发电项目平均度电成本大幅下降，这很大程度上归功于中国贡献。"今年，我们预计中国新能源汽车产 量将同比增长40%以上。"布伦德说，毋庸置疑，中国的能源转型走在了世界前列。 谈及全球贸易形势，布伦德不无担忧地指出，长期以来贸易增速约为全球经济增速的两倍，是推动世界 经济发展的 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to rapid changes in the world, particularly due to the convergence of two significant cycles: US-China relations and AI development [3] - The content shared during the offline meeting included insights on the next hotspots in AI, the current status and outlook of major tech companies like Tesla, Google, and Apple, and the long-term value of stablecoins [6] - The author expresses a more optimistic view on the Chinese economy and the A-share market, indicating a shift in perspective [6] Group 2 - The article highlights the unexpected benefits of offline meetings, such as connecting with young individuals and providing them with alternative ways to engage with AI beyond entrepreneurship and investment [5] - The author plans to hold more offline meetings in various cities, including Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, indicating ongoing engagement with the audience [11] - A recommended reading list of ten essential books was compiled for attendees, showcasing the author's commitment to providing valuable resources [12]

Group 1 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai emphasizes the importance of capital markets as the core of the modern economic financial system, with participants expressing confidence in China's capital market and long-term economic prospects [1][3] - International attendees highlight the resilience of China's capital market infrastructure and its commitment to openness and international integration, indicating a positive outlook for China's economic future [3][5] - The stability and activity of capital markets are crucial for economic development, with discussions focusing on the need for a stable market environment to attract patient capital and foreign investment for high-quality economic growth [5][7] Group 2 - The chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange stresses the need for a dual approach of stabilizing market operations while enhancing market functions, supporting listed companies in utilizing various monetary policy tools effectively [7] - There is a call for continuous improvement in market mechanisms and regulatory efficiency to boost market confidence and facilitate resource allocation towards new industries, business models, and technologies [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai highlights the confidence in China's capital market and its long-term economic prospects amidst global challenges [1] Group 1: Capital Market Stability - International attendees express strong confidence in the stability and attractiveness of the Chinese capital market, noting its resilience amid global challenges [1] - The CEO of the UK's Financial Conduct Authority, Nikhil Rathi, emphasizes the robust infrastructure of China's capital market [1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Transformation - Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, remarks on China's steady move towards institutional openness and a high-quality growth model [1] - Marks identifies two key transformations for this growth: green transformation and digital transformation, stating that significant progress has been made in both areas [1]

Group 1 - Recent influx of over 320 billion in foreign investment into China, contrasting previous negative sentiments [1][3] - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised China's GDP growth forecasts to 4.7% and 4.5% respectively, indicating a shift in market perception [3][5] - Foreign companies are establishing a significant number of enterprises in China, with 18,800 new companies set up in the first four months of the year, a 12.5% increase year-on-year [5] Group 2 - China's overall exports grew by 7.2% in the first five months, despite a 35% drop in exports to the US, showing resilience in other markets [5][7] - Consumer spending is on the rise, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting a genuine shift from intention to action in consumer behavior [7][9] - The current economic environment is characterized by a focus on quality and sustainability rather than just speed, indicating a more stable economic outlook [9][11]

Economic Overview - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2% and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% [1][2] - The overall economic operation is stable, with some indicators continuing to improve, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1][5] Economic Characteristics - The industrial production saw a rapid increase due to supportive policies, with the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [2] - Employment remained stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline, indicating stable market supply and demand [2] New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.6%, and digital product manufacturing grew by 9.1%, both outpacing overall industrial growth [4] - Production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries surged by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in these sectors [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macro policies has effectively supported economic stability, with significant contributions to demand expansion and production growth [6] - Retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment saw substantial year-on-year growth, driven by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [6] - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [6] Economic Trends - Despite external challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with stable growth momentum and a commitment to high-quality development [8][9] - The first five months of 2023 saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing added value, with industrial robot production up by 32% [8] - The government has a robust policy toolkit to ensure economic stability and can dynamically adjust measures in response to changing conditions [8]

前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙16日告诉《环球时报》记者，5月中国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有 进，作为经济增长的重要引擎，消费超预期增长无疑是其中的重要亮点。不但整体上实现了6.4%的增 长，以旧换新更是带动了家用电器、消费电子等相关产品销售的大幅增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖16日上午在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍 说，在"五一""端午"假期、"6·18"平台促销、消费品以旧换新政策等共同作用下，5月份，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点。付凌晖强调，"以旧换新政策带动明显。家用电器和音 像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额同比分别增长53%、33%、30.5%、 25.6%，合计拉动社会消费品零售总额增长1.9个百分点，比上月提高0.5个百分点。" 彭博社报道称，社零超预期加速增长，助力中国经济在5月平稳度过美国关税带来的剧烈震荡，提振了 中国应对美国政府贸易战威胁的信心。报道还称，5月份的宏观经济数据全面展示了中国如何应对美国 贸易战所引发的动荡局面。 杨德龙表示，近年来，除个别年份外，消费一直是拉动中国经济增长最重要的马车，贡献率 ...

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's economic indicators are operating within a reasonable range despite external shocks and internal challenges, supported by proactive macro policies [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release May's macroeconomic data on June 16, indicating stable economic growth with manufacturing playing a crucial role [1] Manufacturing Sector - In May, manufacturing sales accounted for 30.1% of total sales by enterprises, with equipment manufacturing sales increasing by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Specific sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication equipment saw sales growth of 15.1%, 13.1%, and 8.6% respectively [1] High-Tech Industry - The high-tech industry experienced a year-on-year sales increase of 15% in May, continuing its rapid growth trend [1] - The core digital economy sector's sales rose by 11.2%, with digital technology procurement increasing by 10.9% [1] - Sales of industrial robots and special operation robots grew by 13.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] Private Sector Performance - Policies supporting the private economy have led to improved performance, with private enterprise sales growth outpacing the national average by 0.9 percentage points, reaching 72.3% of total sales [2] - Private manufacturing and high-tech enterprises also showed sales growth rates higher than their national counterparts by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively [2] Economic Sentiment and Forecasts - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Research institutions predict an overall improvement in domestic economic sentiment due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The economic recovery is expected to continue, with fixed asset investment growth remaining stable, particularly in manufacturing and broad infrastructure [3][4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite improvements, the real estate sector continues to decline, and uncertainties remain regarding future trade negotiations [4] - The overall economic growth is projected to maintain around 5% for the second quarter, but further policy measures may be necessary to achieve annual development goals [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience and adaptability of Chinese enterprises in the face of external economic pressures, highlighting their efforts to explore new markets and upgrade their operations [5][4] - It discusses the importance of having clear goals and dreams for the future, as articulated by leaders like Xi Jinping, which serve as a guiding force for the economy [4][7] - The concept of "second breath" is introduced, illustrating how industries and companies can overcome challenges and enter new phases of growth [4][6] Group 2 - The article draws a parallel between the Chinese economy and a wheel, where the spokes represent various economic provinces and sectors working together to support overall growth [7][6] - It highlights the role of both state-owned and private enterprises in driving economic progress, emphasizing the complementary nature of different economic sectors [7][8] - The need for coordinated regional development and the establishment of new mechanisms for cross-regional cooperation is underscored as essential for economic stability and growth [7][4]

Group 1 - Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating reflects confidence in China's macroeconomic governance and signals stability to global markets [1][4] - Since September last year, China has implemented a series of incremental policies, with a fiscal deficit rate planned at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2] - The consumer market has shown significant growth, with double-digit increases in sectors like home appliances and communication equipment, and foreign trade reaching historical highs [2] Group 2 - International investors' confidence in China's economic prospects has risen, with major foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raising their 2025 GDP growth forecasts for China by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has performed exceptionally well, raising a total of $9 billion this year, a 320% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for Chinese assets in the primary market [3] - A UBS report indicates that 30% of family offices in the Asia-Pacific region plan to increase allocations to Greater China, reflecting global capital's confidence in China's capital markets [4]