证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 [Table_Title] [Table_Title] DeepSeekR2 发布预期升温，英伟达有望研发全新中 国特供芯片 传媒行业周报系列 [Table_Title2]2025 年第 22 周 ► 市场行情回顾 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 22 周（实际交易日为 2025.6.3-2025.6.6）上证指 数上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.88%，创业板指数上涨 2.32%。恒生指数上涨 2.16%，恒生互联网指数上涨 3.46%，行 业领先恒生指数 1.3pct。SW 传媒指数上涨 2.59%，领先创业板 指数 0.27pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨跌幅排名中位列第 6 位。子行业中影视、互联网服务和广电位列前三位，分别为上 涨 12.91%、上涨 3.94%和上涨 3.29%。 ► 核心观点&投资建议 DeepSeek 发布 R1 更新，R2 模型发布预期升温。据腾讯新闻， 近期 DeepSeek 更新 R1 模型，此次更新基于半年前的 DeepSeek V3 Base 模型，通过 ...

Core Insights - The seventh Beijing Zhiyuan Conference gathered leading AI researchers and industry experts to discuss the evolution of AI, its benefits for humanity, and the construction of an AI industry ecosystem [1] Group 1: AI Development and Risks - Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio highlighted exponential advancements in AI, particularly in planning and reasoning, and warned of potential risks if AI systems develop self-protective and deceptive behaviors [2] - Bengio proposed a dual solution to address these risks: developing non-agent, trustworthy AI systems modeled after altruistic scientists, and promoting global collaborative governance to establish international regulatory frameworks [2] - Richard S. Sutton emphasized the transition from a "human data era" to an "experience era," where AI agents learn dynamically through interaction, advocating for decentralized cooperation over centralized control to ensure safe collaboration between AI and humans [2][3] Group 2: Open Source and Innovation - Jim Zemlin from the Linux Foundation stated that 2025 will mark the beginning of open-source AI, which is becoming a core driver of global AI innovation, with Chinese companies like DeepSeek leading the way in releasing open-source models [3] - Zemlin argued that open-source governance is essential for balancing competition and collaboration, ensuring that AI innovation is shared globally [3] Group 3: Robotics and AI Applications - Conference attendees noted that humanoid robots are currently significant carriers of embodied intelligence due to their advantages in data collection, human-machine interaction, and environmental adaptability, while the diversity of robot forms is expected to increase with AGI development [4] - Discussions at the conference included various technical routes for embodied intelligence, commercialization paths, and the expansion of typical application scenarios, showcasing the latest trends and achievements in global AI research and industry [4]

今天分享的是：2025年第18期（总899期）：开源大模型DeepSeek实现三个"首次"，应借助开源顺势推动AI普惠化平权化发展 报告共计：10页 开源大模型DeepSeek的创新实践与AI普惠化发展路径 一、DeepSeek：全球开源AI大模型的新标杆 AI大模型开源需满足代码完整、模型参数公开、训练数据透明三大核心标准，较传统软件开源更复杂。此前多数大模型厂商走 纯闭源或"半开源"路线，如OpenAI的GPT-4、Meta的Llama 3仅部分开源且附带商用限制，仅有少数机构实现全栈开源。 DeepSeek则以全栈开源和宽松协议树立新典范：不仅开放代码、权重、文档下载，公开GPRO训练算法等技术细节，还采用无商 用限制的MIT许可，支持用户进行"模型蒸馏"，为行业提供了透明、开放的技术基座。 二、DeepSeek的三大突破性"首次" 1. 技术路径革新：开辟大模型发展第二路线 DeepSeek-R1通过纯强化学习（RL）训练证明"小而美"路径的可行性，打破了依赖"Scaling Law"的"唯资源论"定式。其推理成本 与定价显著低于国际主流模型，为资源有限的国家提供了低成本高效能的技术方案，助力缩小全球 ...

来源丨硅星人Pro（ID： Si-Planet ） 作者丨 周一笑 图源丨Midjourney "我们只有不到一周的通知时间。" Varun Mohan @ W @ mohansolo A ANTHROPIC ( WINDSURF With less than five days of notice, Anthropic decided to cut off nearly all of our first-party capacity to all Claude 3.x models. Given the short notice, we may see some short-term Claude 3.x model availability issues as we have very quickly ramped up capacity on other inference providers, but we believe we have now secured sufficient near term capacity. We have been very clear to Anthropic th ...

图为新闻发布会现场。 此外，根据产业发展需求，设置多项揭榜挂帅和重点专项条款，择优遴选产业集群重大项目，最高支持 金额可达1亿元。同时，改变传统政策补营收、补房租等模式，重点突出市场导向、应用牵引，以场景 创新和应用落地推动企业发展。 夏俊俊 摄 在政策支撑方面，今年以来，东湖高新区推动软件产业政策全面升级，更新出台"软件十四条"。新政策 更加聚焦重点方向和国家战略，进一步提升支持上限、优化支持手段，全面释放政策产业引领作用，重 点突出"AI驱动"和"开源驱动"，增加对AI大模型、开源生态建设等方向的支持。其中，AI方面，大模型 标杆企业最高支持5000万元；开源方面，围绕开源产品、开源平台、开源软件、开源硬件、开源应 用"五要素"进行全方面奖励，最高可达3000万元。 在创新支撑方面，东湖高新区充分发挥国家自主创新示范区优势，坚持以科技创新引领软件产业发展 攀"高"向"新"，强化自主可控，通过突破软件核心技术，形成硬核产品，培育标杆企业。目前东湖高新 区是全国唯一同时孵育出国产操作系统和数据库龙头企业的高新区。 中新网湖北新闻6月5日电 (记者 张芹)东湖高新区(又称"中国光谷")作为武汉市软件产业发展的核 ...

Group 1 - Wuhan will host the Third Software Innovation Development Conference on June 13, focusing on the theme "Wisdom Gathering in Jiangcheng, Digital Intelligence Leading" [1] - The conference will feature one main forum, six sub-forums, and an interactive software market to showcase software in a more engaging manner [1] - Key highlights include the signing of an industrial software pilot verification cooperation agreement among six provincial capital cities in Central China and discussions on the role of artificial intelligence in reshaping the software industry [1] Group 2 - Wuhan's software industry has shown strong growth, with a projected revenue exceeding 350 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the highest growth rate among 14 major software cities in China for three consecutive years [2] - The city aims to achieve a software industry scale of over 800 billion yuan by 2030, transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement [2] - The East Lake High-tech Zone accounts for over 65% of the city's software industry scale and has implemented comprehensive policy upgrades to support the sector [2] Group 3 - The East Lake High-tech Zone is accelerating its layout in emerging software fields, emphasizing "AI-driven" and "open-source-driven" initiatives, with substantial financial support for AI model enterprises and open-source projects [3] - The zone has established a semiconductor industrial software joint innovation platform and is home to major domestic operating system and database companies [3] - Over 400,000 software R&D personnel are concentrated in the East Lake High-tech Zone, fostering significant research centers led by companies like Huawei and Xiaomi [3]

Group 1 - The core objective of the conference is to achieve an overall software industry scale exceeding 800 billion yuan in Wuhan by 2030 [1][2] - The conference will focus on key software innovations, AI empowerment, open-source ecosystem cultivation, and the integration of software and hardware [1] - A new industrial software forum will be established to showcase the innovation capabilities of Huazhong University of Science and Technology and to create a new hub for industrial software transformation [2] Group 2 - The conference aims to enhance collaboration among six provincial capitals in Central China, focusing on high-end sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and automotive [1] - Wuhan plans to introduce industry-specific open-source operating systems for sectors like healthcare, education, and automotive [2] - The conference will also promote the integration of artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the metaverse with the real economy [2]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the US House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with a focus on extending and making permanent tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while increasing spending in defense and border security [2][3][6] - The short-term economic impact of the bill is limited, with a potential slight boost to economic growth in the coming years, but it is unlikely to accelerate the growth trend [7] - The projected deficit rate, even under optimistic scenarios considering tariff revenues, is expected to remain around 6.5% [5][7] Group 2: Digital Economy and Technology - The digital transformation implementation plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry aims to enhance core digital technologies, promote integrated digital transformation, and solidify a diversified transformation foundation [11][12] - The plan includes 15 typical scenarios and emphasizes a collaborative mechanism involving government guidance and market leadership to expand the depth and breadth of digital upgrades in the electronic information sector [12] - The focus on digital transformation is expected to strengthen the internal growth momentum of the electronic information manufacturing industry and enhance its capacity to support the digital transformation of other sectors [12] Group 3: ESG Strategies - The ESG screening strategy for central state-owned enterprises yielded an excess return of 1.23% in May, with a Sharpe ratio of 6.92 and an absolute return of 3.24% [17][19] - The strategy effectively identified stable stocks within central state-owned enterprises, outperforming both pure central state-owned and pure ESG strategies [19] - The overall performance of ESG strategies indicates a robust ability to manage risks while enhancing returns, with cumulative returns significantly higher than the broader market indices [19][20] Group 4: Chemical Industry - Brent and WTI oil prices averaged $64.0 and $60.9 per barrel in May, respectively, with expectations of fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel due to supply and demand dynamics [30][32] - The chemical industry is anticipated to see structural opportunities driven by domestic economic stimulus policies, despite ongoing global trade tensions [32] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global trade disputes and OPEC+ production policies as key factors influencing the chemical sector's performance [32]

Group 1 - The commercialization challenges faced by large model companies, particularly Zhipu AI, are becoming increasingly prominent as it aims to target B-end and G-end markets [2][6] - Zhipu AI's COO Zhang Fan is set to leave the company at the end of June to pursue entrepreneurship in the AI Agent field, with the new project receiving investment support from Zhipu [2][5] - The restructuring of Zhipu AI's commercialization department has led to a shift in management responsibilities, moving away from the traditional ToB/ToG logic [6][8] Group 2 - Zhipu AI has experienced significant personnel turnover, including the departure of key figures such as VP Zhang Kuo, which has hindered its ability to secure new financing [5][6] - The company has received a total of 1.8 billion yuan in strategic investments from state-owned enterprises in Hangzhou, Zhuhai, and Chengdu since 2025 [5] - The slow progress in Zhipu's model capabilities and financing plans has raised concerns about its future in the competitive AI landscape [5][6] Group 3 - The B-end market for AI services is becoming increasingly challenging, with a shift in demand and a decrease in genuine needs from enterprises [8][9] - Zhipu AI's current workforce is approximately 800 to 1,000 people, with half of them in the commercialization team, although the company claims that over 70% of its workforce is dedicated to research and development [9][10] - The competitive landscape among large model service providers has led to price wars, impacting project quality and profitability [9][10] Group 4 - Zhipu AI's foundational model has not seen updates since December 2024, which is concerning in the rapidly evolving AI sector [11] - The company ranks lower in model performance compared to its peers in the "AI Six Dragons," indicating a potential lag in technological advancement [11][12] - The release of DeepSeek-R1 has intensified competition, making it harder for Zhipu to secure contracts as clients gravitate towards DeepSeek's offerings [9][11] Group 5 - Zhipu AI has initiated the IPO process, becoming the first among the "AI Six Dragons" to do so, which may provide a pathway for future growth [17][18] - The company aims to balance its academic roots with commercial success, similar to SenseTime, but faces challenges in transitioning from research to practical applications [18][19] - Internal management issues and overlapping authority among departments have been reported, which could affect operational efficiency as the company prepares for its IPO [23][24]

Group 1 - Mary Meeker, known as the "Queen of the Internet," has released a comprehensive 340-page AI Trends Report, analyzing the impact of AI across various sectors [3][5] - ChatGPT achieved 100 million users in just 2 months, and by 17 months, it reached 800 million monthly active users and over 20 million subscribers, generating nearly $4 billion in annual revenue [5][6] - The report highlights a significant increase in AI-related capital expenditures, projected to reach $212 billion in 2024, a 63% year-over-year growth [11][12] Group 2 - AI model training costs have skyrocketed by 2400 times over the past 8 years, with single model training costs potentially reaching $1 billion in 2025 and possibly exceeding $10 billion in the future [20][23] - The demand for AI-related jobs has surged by 448%, while traditional IT job demand has decreased by 9% from 2018 to 2025, indicating a shift in workforce needs [67][69] - Major tech companies are heavily investing in AI infrastructure, with NVIDIA being a significant beneficiary, capturing a substantial portion of data center budgets [12][30] Group 3 - AI applications are rapidly penetrating various fields, including protein folding, cancer detection, robotics, and multilingual translation, reshaping industry ecosystems and human work processes [17][59] - The performance of AI models has improved to the extent that they are increasingly indistinguishable from humans in Turing tests, with GPT-4.5 being mistaken for a human by 73% of testers [43][46] - The report notes a shift in AI's role from digital to physical realms, with AI systems like Waymo and Tesla's autonomous driving becoming commercially operational [59][63]