在市场震荡上涨的过程中，百亿级私募积极谋攻。私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位 指数连续两周上涨。其中，百亿级私募攻势明显，仓位指数超过82%，较8月8日涨超8个百分点，创下 年内单周最大加仓幅度。从加仓方向来看，科技、创新药、新消费等板块仍是布局重点，同时受益 于"反内卷"政策的化工、保险等行业获不少私募加码。在业内人士看来，市场正处于趋势性上行的上半 场，未来或将由流动性、基本面双重驱动，基本面向好且代表经济转型方向的企业值得关注。 ■私募新观察 看好资金面与基本面双重驱动 百亿级私募仓位重回八成以上 ◎记者 马嘉悦 百亿级私募仓位尽显攻势 近期，私募仓位愈发积极。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位指数为74.86%，较8月8日上涨0.64个百分点，连续 两周上涨。 其中，满仓（仓位超过八成）股票私募占比为54.8%，中等仓位（仓位在五成至八成区间）股票私募占 比为25.8%，仓位低于五成的私募占比不足20%。与8月8日相比，满仓股票私募占比小幅提升。 分规模来看，百亿级私募加仓动作明显。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，百亿级私募仓位指数为82.29%，较8月8日上涨8 ...

本周各家券商策略较为积极，后续行情的持续性与结构性机会是讨论的焦点。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | 华西策略 李立峰 | 沪指创近10年新高,增量资金来自 何方? | 本轮A股牛市行情从"924"演绎至今,增量 资金,在过去三年多来持续增持A股;二是融 迹象显现但仍处于早期阶段，资产荒下，居 | 聚焦新技术、新成长方向 (如国产算力 机器人、AI应用等）,辅之以部分大 全融、新消费(如IP经济、口含烟等) | | | | 资金来源广泛:一是险资、养老金等中长期 | | | | | 资资金和私募基金交易持续活跃,外资对A股 | | | | | 关注度也开始升温；三是居民"存款搬家" | | | | | 民资金有望通过ETF、直接持股、公募基金等 | 0 | | | | 渠道持续入市,成为"慢牛"得以延展的关 | | | | | 键动力。 | | | | | 从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在 主要的发起者和推动者并非散户;事实上本 | | | | | 轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's technology investment in 2025 is at a "crossroads," showing signs of recovery but still facing significant challenges [1] - The first half of 2025 marks the first positive growth in fundraising, investment, and exit activities in four years, indicating a potential turning point in the market [2] Fundraising and Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, the number and scale of fundraising funds increased compared to the same period in 2024, marking a recovery in the primary market for equity investment [2] - The exit situation has improved, with a partial recovery in the IPO market for Chinese companies, and the proportion of exits through IPOs and equity transfers has risen [2] - However, challenges remain, including prolonged IPO timelines and significant disparities in approval rates across different sectors in the A-share market [2][3] Investment Challenges - Over 70% of companies funded by venture capital funds established between 2014 and 2017 have not exited, and the number of venture capital fund liquidations has increased for four consecutive years [2] - Key issues include pressure on Limited Partners (LPs) for returns, a shift in General Partners (GPs) from "investment-driven" to "exit-driven" strategies, and a significant focus on popular sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy, leading to market saturation [2][3] Emerging Trends - Hard technology is leading the investment narrative, with significant activity in AI and hard tech sectors, where investment events and amounts have seen substantial year-on-year growth [3] - The strategic value premium in these sectors can reach between 20% to 200%, indicating a strong market interest [3] - There is a notable difference in AI investment logic between China and the U.S., potentially leading to a dual-core model in AI investment [3] Institutional Evolution - The capabilities of GPs are evolving from being mere "catchers" of funds to becoming "partners" who understand industries and build ecosystems [3] - The rise of "patient capital" is gaining attention, with market responses gradually aligning with policy initiatives [3] - New institutional forms are emerging, with technology companies investing along the entire industrial chain, driving a reconstruction of venture capital logic [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During a bull market, market corrections are often completed in a short period. For small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks, it may be a good buying opportunity. Chasing the previous strong sectors during this period has a high probability of success, and even chasing at the market peak can often yield positive returns [1][4]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends [1][5]. - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related [1][6]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Respond When a Small Platform Appears in a Bull Market 1.1 Chasing the Previous Strong Sectors During a Small - Scale Bull - Market Correction Has the Highest Probability of Success - During a bull market, small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks may be a good buying opportunity. When considering whether to chase the previous high - performing sectors or switch to low - lying sectors for catch - up, historical data shows that in the "first wave of rise - platform pullback - second wave of rise" scenarios, the top 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise are likely to have the largest pullbacks during the adjustment but also tend to have higher increases in the second wave of rise. The bottom 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise usually do not end up at the bottom in the second wave of rise [10]. - When buying at the market's highest point before adjustment (fully "chasing up"), the TOP20% group and the DOWN20% group have similar returns, but the TOP20% group has a higher probability of success and always maintains positive returns. When buying at the lowest point of the market adjustment, the TOP20% group is likely to have better returns [4][13]. 1.2 When Not to Chase Up - The statement that "chasing the previous strong sectors during a small - scale bull - market correction has the highest probability of success" is the result of strong sectors with excess returns continuing to lead the rise and sectors with weakening marginal excess returns rising in line with the market. Excluding sectors with weakening marginal excess returns may be a good choice when a "small - scale bull - market correction" occurs [16]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends, possibly because the sector has completed the pricing of its own logic and there is no incremental logic to change this situation. Conversely, if a sector can maintain strong excess returns during a correction, it is likely to continue to do so in the future [5][19]. 1.3 Which Industries Currently Have Weakening Marginal Excess Returns - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening marginal excess returns. Sectors such as the consumer electronics sector have had continuous excess returns relative to the broader market for 10 weeks. As of August 20, 2025, sectors with continuous excess returns of five weeks or more include general equipment, special equipment, electronic chemicals, rubber, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [20]. - Sectors that have shown weakening marginal excess returns include the gaming sector in AI applications, the aviation equipment sector in the military industry, and the wind power and glass - fiber sectors in the "anti - involution" category [20]. 1.4 How to Find Sectors That May Earn Odds When Excess Returns Weaken - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. Examples include special steel from March to July 2009, rail transit equipment from February to April 2015, rural commercial banks from December 2016 to April 2017, energy metals, small metals, general steel, and coal mining from May to September 2017, and chemical fibers and agricultural product processing from November 2020 to January 2021 [23]. - These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related. Before the correction, the rise is due to market beta and the difference between weak reality and strong expectations. During the correction, the negative excess return is due to the friction when moving from long - term speculation to the reality - realization stage. After the correction, the excess return comes from the reality catching up with the strong expectations. Resource sectors price their own logic more "slowly" than growth sectors. When the marginal excess returns of growth stocks weaken, it is difficult for them to restart without new incremental logic. However, for resource sectors, the realization of logic (i.e., the realization of supply - demand structure expectations) is still an incremental logic [6][23].

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Macroeconomic Insights - Economic growth in July showed an overall slowdown, with policy-driven sectors performing well due to equipment upgrades, appliance replacements, and major infrastructure projects [3] - Durable goods consumption and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries maintained high growth rates, while extreme weather, high base effects, and declining external demand hindered project construction and production in some sectors [3] - The real estate sector is still in a downturn, indicating that internal recovery momentum is not yet solid [3] - Future economic recovery requires continued and enhanced consumer stimulus policies, optimized funding allocation for infrastructure, and increased support for demand in the real estate market [3] Capital Market Strategy - The shift in valuation logic for the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, with expectations for A/H stock indices to reach new highs [5][7] - Institutional changes are crucial for improving the investability of the Chinese stock market and altering societal perceptions of asset value [8][9] - Recent reforms aim to enhance investor returns, improve corporate governance, and encourage share buybacks, which are expected to increase investor confidence and market performance [9][10] - The establishment of a stable market mechanism is seen as a "firewall" that reduces risk perceptions and encourages long-term capital investment [10][11] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since mid-June, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and U.S. trade policies [15] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to liquidity tightening, negatively impacting stock performance [15] - The decline in popularity of key sectors and a slowdown in capital inflows have contributed to the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [16] - Despite recent underperformance, the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications and consumer trends [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a positive market outlook with a "dual-driven" strategy, highlighting the importance of technology and the recovery of PPI as key growth drivers [1][10][11] - The A-share market is characterized by significant "incremental market" features, with increased trading volume and active capital flow, indicating a robust market environment [1][14][16] - The report identifies liquid cooling as a promising sector, expected to exhibit strong growth and favorable risk-reward characteristics, positioning it as the next significant opportunity after optical modules and PCBs [1][10][12] Group 2 - The report analyzes the current enthusiasm in popular sectors, noting that financial technology and ground weaponry are relatively crowded, while AI computing chains remain less crowded [2][18][19] - From a valuation perspective, sectors such as AI applications, robotics, aerospace equipment, PCBs, and photolithography machines are identified as having relatively high valuations, while insurance, smart driving, non-ferrous metals, liquor, and photovoltaics are seen as undervalued [2][23][25][26] Group 3 - The report outlines the current industry outlook, indicating that electronics and basic chemicals are entering a favorable phase, while sectors like comprehensive and steel are exiting [3][30][31] - Specific secondary industries expected to perform well include apparel and home textiles, consumer electronics, chemical products, and non-liquor sectors [3][30][31] Group 4 - The report provides configuration recommendations focusing on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI recovery, and stable dividends, suggesting a diversified approach to investment [4][32][33] - Key sectors for investment include liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies, alongside cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements [4][33]

Group 1 - A-shares have temporarily retreated below 3700 points after an "eight consecutive days" rally, with investors expressing mixed sentiments about the market's performance and future potential [1] - Despite the recent market adjustment, trading volume remains robust, with A-share turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan on consecutive days, indicating strong market activity [1] - The MSCI China Index has outperformed major global indices with a year-to-date increase of 26.9%, highlighting the strength of Chinese stocks on a global scale [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in A-shares has exceeded most expectations, driven by supportive policies, improved investor sentiment, and strong economic data, particularly in exports [2][3] - The shift in capital market focus from heavy financing to balanced investment and financing has created a healthier market environment, fostering a slow bull market [2] - The increase in A-share financing balance, surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, reflects heightened investor confidence and a positive outlook for the market [5][6] Group 3 - The current market rally is attributed to a combination of policy support and capital inflows, with the central bank maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy to ensure liquidity [4] - Institutional investors have begun to increase their equity allocations, while southbound capital has significantly contributed to the Hong Kong stock market's recovery [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with investors showing a greater willingness to enter the market, driven by the positive momentum and potential for future gains [3][7] Group 4 - Fund companies maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, emphasizing the importance of monitoring potential volatility due to profit-taking after recent gains [7] - The focus on sectors such as AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends is expected to drive market performance in the near term [7][8] - The demand for high-yield assets is anticipated to remain strong, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and ongoing policy initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence [8]

0:00 中国出海开发者已成为全球创新舞台上不可或缺的中坚力量。在Google Play年度最佳榜单上，12家中国 开发者团队的13款应用和游戏，在全球不同市场斩获了14项"年度最佳应用"大奖。 （视频剪辑：实习生顾婉娴） 那么，中国开发者有哪些特点？中国企业拓展海外市场有何趋势？8月13日，在Google I/O Connect China 2025上，我们跟谷歌大中华区及韩国总裁陈俊廷聊了聊。 中国企业出海正从"单点突破"到"生态化扩张" 不确定性下，出海路径不再从美国开始，所有企业都在想怎样多元化去更多市场 深入新兴市场，"Glocal"是一大趋势——global team在国内，local team在海外 哪些产业出海走得更快？除了消费电子、电动汽车等，短剧、AI应用等也有较强的国际影响力 品牌重要性提升，中国企业将自身成本优势与品牌力结合将带来更大机遇 投资方不再只看用户规模，更看重商业模式：怎样早期能有稳定的收入，有稳定的用户基础 以下是陈俊廷的一些观察： 21世纪经济报道记者 董静怡 上海报道 ...