来源：戴清策略思考 ⭕展望港股后市： 1、源头活水，慢牛在望。从宏观环境和流动性来看，美联储降息周期开启，全球宏观流动性或更为宽松，同时随着国内科技产业政策不断催化，更多增 量资金提升市场活跃度，还有长线资金不断入市，硬科技公司赴港上市，港股大盘或继续走"慢牛"行情。 2、配置方向上：在"十五五"规划政策指导下，在经济新旧动能转换之际，传统地产拉动的经济需求端的波动有所下降，而新质生产力等供给端的影响正 在逐步抬升。1）优质供给创造新增需求：部分新兴的科技产业正凭借技术进步的手段，通过优质供给创造新增需求，AI、机器人等产业正在经 历"0>1"的技术商业化的关键窗口期，当前"AI基建"相关环节景气加速扩散中，上游配套设施和能源设备正在受益中，如光模块、锂电、化工、金属等， 战略性看好AI应用（港股互联网等）。2）稀缺供给应享估值溢价：资源品从传统的经济周期驱动转向能源转型与地缘政治双轮驱动，对长期结构性供需 错配下的稀缺性进行定价，是在为一场确定的能源革命和不确定的全球格局进行定价，关注金属等。3）过剩产能逐步出清带来估值修复：光伏、化工等 部分行业已迎来"反内卷"政策落地，若行业供给加速出清，股票估值或将进 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.31% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7278 trillion yuan, a decrease of 237.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 4,228 stocks rose while 1,104 fell, with a median increase of 1.31% for the stocks [1] Market Trends - The market is showing signs of rebound, but the intensity of the rebound is considered moderate [2] - Following a peak on November 14, the market has adjusted for seven trading days, indicating a potential for further slight declines in index levels [2] - The main downtrend phase is believed to be over, transitioning into a period of slow oscillation and subsequent range-bound trading [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors showing strong performance include defense and military, commercial aerospace, AI applications, Google supply chain, and Alibaba concepts [2] - The defense and military sector is driven by geopolitical factors, with expectations for accelerated military orders due to the current complex geopolitical environment [2][3] - The commercial aerospace sector saw significant gains, with 16 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [3] AI Applications - The AI applications sector is gaining traction, particularly in industries such as internet services, software, advertising, education, and entertainment, with the advertising sector reaching a three-and-a-half-year high [4][5] - The article from Xinhua highlights the rapid emergence of domestic AI applications, indicating a strong market demand for high-quality AI products [6] - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist noted that Chinese AI companies are focusing more on application areas rather than just computing power, suggesting a stronger potential for commercialization in the short term [6] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on low-cost acquisitions in hot sectors rather than chasing high prices [2][9] - The military and semiconductor sectors are noted for their inconsistent investor reputation, suggesting caution in pursuing these stocks after significant price increases [9]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 最近一周市场连续下跌，特别周五出现放量近百点的下跌，前期热门板块例如算力方向和新能源方向是下跌的主战场。 对于未来，慢牛趋势依然在，目前是针对 4 月 -11 月的调整段。 市场从 4 月开始一路高歌猛进，科技股连番大涨后，短期到了估值高位，再加上海外事件扰动以及美联储流动性扰动，短期进入休整期。 但展望未来： 指数方面：虽然上证指数的 ERP 已经到了中枢位置，不算极低，但沪深 300 的股息率依然高于十年期国债，而横向对比美股，股息率 1.2% ，十年期美债收益率 4% 以上。至于绝对位置就更不用谈了。所以 A 股目前的性价比依然很高。 科技方向：四季度有 DEEPSEEK 新版本推出的预期、 AI 各类应用也陆续推出、多个科技独角兽将陆续上市、 首批科创创业人工智能 ETF等16只硬科技基金也在这个周末获批，即将启动募集，也就意味着科技方向未来将迎来增量。所以中短期有增量，中长期有产业趋势 的不断催化。 所以中长期慢牛格 ...

昨晚的美股非常强劲，纳斯达克指数一度大涨2.69%，可以说将上周五的高开低走的大阴线大部分吞吃了，而道琼斯上涨的幅度偏小，差不多有0.44%，标 普500指数的强势程度跟纳指相差无几。 应该说从上周五开始，美股出现了全面反攻，现在此前下跌的失地大部分收回了，之所以出现如此强劲的势头，主要还是市场的阴霾消除了，从海外投行高 盛的最新研判看，美联储12月份将会降息，另外明年的3月和6月分别还有两次降息，联邦利率最终会下降至3.00%-3.25%的区间。 这就是说，将之前引发美股下跌的不确定性完全排除了，按照高盛的话说，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场的降温，为政策制定者提供了进一步放松货币的政策工 具。 免责声明：文中内容仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议或提示，股市有风险，投资请谨慎！ 这也就能很好的解释昨天港股阿里巴巴大涨的原因，包括昨夜美股的百度也大涨了7.44%，从这个表现路径看，当前的科技股反弹思路越来越明显了，应该 说AI的硬件炒作已经告一个段落了，当前完全切换到了AI应用层面，市场已经开始关注人工智能的业绩问题，这一切都是谷歌给市场的引导。 以这个角度去看，接下来即便是我们看好科技股，结构性的分化在所难免了，应该从 ...

为什么说是牛市的震荡回调阶段呢？ 之前达哥提过，本轮牛市的三大宏观基础：全球流动性宽松、财政扩张、人工智能科技革命，此外，还有国内政策层面的努力提振资本市场。只要牛市 的根基没有动摇，那么就要坚持牛市信仰。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到我们周末聊行情的时间。周五的大幅调整让人非常担忧，很多人周末还在讨论下周的走势。对于未来的行情，你是如何看待 的？ 道达：本周市场大幅杀跌，并不意外。 在上周日的手记文章中，我提到了要重点关注科创50指数的表现，如果其破位，那么大盘震荡幅度会加大，需要控制仓位。 在周四的文章中，也重点提到了要观察上证指数30分钟底背离能否出现。但很遗憾的是，底背离并没有出现，市场也就没有止跌反弹。 指数层面，上证指数以跳空阴线的方式跌破了9月以来的上升趋势线，科创50指数跌破了9月下旬以来的箱体底部，因此，毫无疑问地说，市场进入到了 牛市的震荡回调阶段。 从周五没有资金大规模抄底的情况来看，下周一大概率还会有下挫动能。 本周，A股市场调整，主要宽基指数的周度表现均收跌，其中，小盘股、微盘股方向跌幅较大。北证50指数、微盘股指数、国证2000指数的周跌幅均在 6%以上；相对抗跌的上证50指数周跌幅为 ...

在此之前，稳健回报导向的绝对收益资金持续入市在增强市场的内在稳定性，在增量资金越来越多 地以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地像美股一样出现"急跌慢涨"。对需要 增配权益的投资者而言，当下风险的提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机。从配置 上看，资源/传统制造业定价权的重估、企业出海仍是核心增配方向，而高切低的策略因为预期过于一 致，未来轮动择时的难度反而会明显加大。 国泰海通：进入击球区，布出先手棋 近期中国股市走弱，原因在于临近年末部分投资人保收益和降仓位动机较高，FED降息预期的降 温、美股波动加剧与内部政策缺位交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之权益产品备案放缓市场增量供 给不足，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市 场前景，股指进入击球区。机会总在恐慌中出现，中国股市将逐步企稳与展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还 很大，眼下是增持的良机。 美股AI波动与Google创出新高更似AI结构切换而非走势终结，中国也将在12—2月迎来政策、流动 性、基本面的共振期，市场调整后组合上逐步增加进攻性。看好AI应用，机器人(300024 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has set a target price of HKD 151 for Baidu Group-SW (09888) in Hong Kong stocks and USD 155 for its US stock (BIDU.US), maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Revenue Contributions - The three major categories contributing significantly to revenue in Q3 2025 are: 1) Baidu Intelligent Cloud Infrastructure (AI Cloud Infra) revenue reached RMB 4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities growing by 128% [1] 2) AI application revenue amounted to RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6%, accounting for 25% of AI business [1] 3) AI-native marketing service revenue reached RMB 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 262%, representing 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue, with a projected 4% share in Q3 2024 [1] Shareholder Returns - Management recognizes that the absolute value of total shareholder returns (stock buybacks and dividends) and the visibility of future commitments are key factors when updating shareholder plans [1] - The management believes that Baidu has significant potential to unlock asset value and will prioritize advancing important projects when necessary [1]

华安证券最新研报也表达了类似的观点。 东吴证券认为市场大跌的原因主要在于三方面：一是美国9月非农数据增加11.9万，高于市场预估的5.2万，超 预期就业形势再度压低12月美联储降息预期，导致美股大跌，纳指下跌2.15%、标普500下跌1.56%、道指下跌 0.84%，全球风偏受抑制，亚洲股市普遍回调，A股跟随下跌；二是英伟达三季报营收超市场预期，但受市场 整体风偏下行影响，英伟达高开低走，由开盘上涨5%一路至收盘跌3%，美股算力股均出现不同程度回调。受 海外映射影响，国内算力方向大幅回调，新易盛、胜宏科技、中际旭创21日单日分别大跌8.46%、7.73%、 5.69%；三是碳酸锂期货大跌，引致新能源板块大跌。 机构争议调整后市走向 11月21日，A股市场迎来震荡调整行情，上证指数单日下跌2.41%；深成指跌幅扩大至3.41%；创业板指单 日重挫4.02%，两市成交额达1.97万亿元，放量下跌态势凸显市场情绪分化。 证券时报·券商中国记者采访并整理了多家券商的最新观点。券商普遍认为，美联储降息概率下降带来的全球 流动性收缩和美股AI为代表的科技股集体回调增加了全球股市的压力，A股难以独善其身。展望后市，部分券 ...

第三件事，谷歌蚂蚁相继在AI应用上发力，就看AI应用板块能否在这个节点上率先走出新周期。 回到周一的盘面上，只要不高开，投资者就没必要急着跑了，可以等一等反弹，本周短线上至少会修复 1~2天，只不过别太上头。反弹并不意味着中期调整结束，反弹之后可以再次把仓位降下来，等待下一 次盘面错杀的节点。 周末发现了三个消息，周一A股到底是该跑还是该留？ 第一件事呢美联储改口说12月份可能会降息，降息预期呢再次回升到70%，美股也因此止跌反弹，美联 储如果真能降息，这对全球资本市场都是利好，也能缓解A股外资流出的压力。 第二件事火速批复了16个硬科技主题基金，也是引入增量资金来护盘，只不过这种小利好，暂时只能望 梅止渴，作为心理安慰，因为批复之后也不等于立马就建仓完毕，远水解不了近渴。 ...

Group 1 - The volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [1] - The recent adjustments in the US non-farm employment data and the downshift in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve have amplified concerns regarding the sustainability of AI infrastructure in North America [1] - The current market environment may lead to a "sharp drop and slow rise" pattern in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, similar to the US market, as stable return-oriented funds continue to enter the market [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is currently experiencing weakness due to year-end profit-taking and reduced positions by investors, compounded by a lack of internal policy support [2] - Despite the cautious consensus, there is a strong belief in the positive outlook for the Chinese market, with expectations for stabilization and upward momentum in the near future [2] - Key investment themes include AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and infrastructure development in Xinjiang [2] Group 3 - The market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation, critical economic verification, and a policy vacuum, leading to increased volatility [3] - The recent fluctuations in the overseas environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, have affected market liquidity and investor sentiment [3] - Long-term bullish factors remain intact, with a focus on strategic positioning ahead of key meetings in December [3] Group 4 - The current market adjustment has created a preliminary sense of space, with expectations for improved overseas liquidity and reduced domestic funding pressure [4] - Emphasis on safety margins in high volatility environments, focusing on sectors such as seasoning products, leisure foods, and communication services [4] - Recommendations include increasing positions in traditional cyclical sectors and potential growth areas like domestic computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] Group 5 - The recent adjustment in A-shares is attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end performance pressures [6] - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation until mid-December, when significant policy decisions are anticipated to provide direction [6] - The outlook for the first quarter of the following year suggests a potential return to an upward cycle, particularly for large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks [6] Group 6 - The recent market pullback is influenced by global financial vulnerabilities and concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditures [7] - The current state of the AI industry is compared to a critical juncture in the internet sector in 1997, highlighting the uncertainty of future applications [7] - Recommendations focus on sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, including upstream resources and cyclical industries [7] Group 7 - The recent decline in the A-share index is viewed as a "clear sky turbulence," with expectations for limited future volatility [8] - The current bull market logic based on liquidity is approaching a turning point, necessitating a shift towards fundamental-driven growth [8] - The anticipated transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamental-driven one will require monitoring political and economic cycles [8] Group 8 - The recent global equity market weakness has led to a rotation in market dynamics, with a focus on three main investment directions: AI technology, economic recovery, and undervalued dividends [9] - The performance of low-valued dividends is closely tied to the progress of the AI industry, which is dependent on breakthroughs in both application and consumption [9] Group 9 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are expected to stabilize as institutional investors begin to position for 2026 following the central economic work conference in mid-December [10] - The technical analysis suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index may find strong support around the 3700-point level, limiting further downside [10] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a renewed buying opportunity in the market [10]