Group 1 - A-shares are expected to perform well after the "Eleventh" holiday, supported by global monetary and fiscal policy easing and the arrival of the third-quarter report trading window [2][4] - The AI industry has seen significant catalytic events during the holiday, boosting market confidence in AI computing power, storage, and applications [2][3] - The market is anticipated to maintain a trend of gradual upward movement, with improved risk appetite and favorable liquidity conditions [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as these areas are expected to provide substantial investment opportunities [4][5] - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction, with resources likely to concentrate on high-quality enterprises, enhancing resource allocation [4][5] - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from forthcoming supportive policies, presenting potential recovery opportunities for undervalued stocks [5]

从资金面看，中泰证券（600918）认为，"十一"假期前的最后两个交易日，A股两融余额维持较高水 平，市场平均担保比例回升，表明多头资金整体看好节后走势。假期期间，全球各主要经济体股市多数 上涨，A股节后存在一定补涨空间。 明日，A股将迎来10月首个交易日。"十一"假期期间，外围市场普涨，投资者对A股节后表现较为期 待。 综合多家券商最新研判，A股"红十月"可期，背后支撑因素包括全球货币政策和财政政策双宽松、三季 报交易窗口到来提供更多投资机会等。机构认为，在继续坚守以AI为代表的科技成长主线同时，"反内 卷"等投资主题也有望持续带来布局机遇。 A股节后表现可期 回顾"十一"假期期间外围权益市场表现，美股、日股等主要市场整体反弹，提振了市场对A股节后表现 的预期。业内机构研判，A股"红十月"可期。 兴业证券判断，受全球货币政策和财政政策双宽松的政策预期提振，"十一"假期期间全球风险资产表现 亮眼，为节后A股行情演绎创造积极的宏观环境；从产业视角看，假期期间AI产业催化事件密集，显著 提振了市场对AI算力、存储及应用的信心。10月，A股市场进入三季报交易窗口，有望带动市场聚焦景 气线索，提供更多可挖掘的投资机会 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a decrease in market trading activity ahead of the National Day holiday, suggesting a shift towards defensive strategies as risk appetite declines [2][5][6] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear catalysts, leading to expectations of market fluctuations rather than significant upward breakthroughs in the short term [2][6] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in the A-share market in the fourth quarter, supported by improved liquidity from household savings entering the market and foreign capital inflows due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][6][11] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-yield sectors such as coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation during market corrections [2][11] - The report highlights sectors experiencing stagnation, particularly in technology, such as AI applications, consumer electronics, humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, and Hang Seng Technology [2][11] - The "anti-involution" direction is emphasized, with potential in steel, building materials, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries, as well as sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" like clean energy and environmental protection [2][11][12] Group 3 - The report notes significant overseas uncertainties, including US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market sentiment [5][11] - It also points out the risk of a "style drift" among institutions as they adjust their holdings at the end of the quarter, potentially leading to a short-term loosening of tech sector concentration [5][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading volumes, as a significant drop could indicate reduced liquidity support for previously concentrated tech sectors [6][11]

Market Overview - As of September 25, the three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.58% [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 239.18 billion yuan, an increase of 44.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4] Sector Performance - The gaming, copper cable high-speed connection, controllable nuclear fusion, metal copper, film and television, and wind power equipment sectors saw significant gains [3] - Conversely, the precious metals, gas, port shipping, oil and gas extraction and services, engineering machinery, and logistics sectors experienced notable declines [3] Notable Stocks - In the gaming sector, companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Huanyu Century showed strong performance, with Kunlun Wanwei rising by 2.46% and Huanyu Century by 1.08% [5] - The copper sector also performed well, with companies such as Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. achieving significant gains [8] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector was active, with stocks like Hezhan Intelligent and Shanghai Electric hitting the daily limit [8] Policy Impact - On September 24, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments released guidelines to promote digital consumption, which includes 14 tasks aimed at supporting vertical e-commerce development and expanding specialized consumption channels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a period of fluctuation as the third quarter concludes, with brokerages maintaining a relatively positive outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the market trend is not yet over [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with major indices experiencing divergence; the Shanghai Composite Index remains in a high-level fluctuation while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices continue to rise [2]. - A structural recovery in A-share earnings is anticipated, driven by policy expectations, macro and micro liquidity improvements, and a resilient export growth forecast [2]. Policy Impact - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China, with a shift in market focus towards 2026 economic and policy expectations [3]. - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation towards equity assets by residents, contributing to market growth [3]. Market Style - The market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [4]. - Historical data suggests that value styles have a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth styles in the fourth quarter since 2013 [4]. Investment Focus - The primary investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors, particularly AI, alongside cyclical products and sectors with improving economic conditions [5][6]. - Specific sectors identified for potential growth include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military, financial IT, and various consumer goods [6]. Sector Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, AI hardware and applications, and consumer services, with particular attention to emerging trends in pet economy, IP toys, and beauty products [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of Chinese brands from merely exporting products to engaging in cultural expression on a global scale, highlighting the importance of cultural understanding and dialogue in international markets [3][6] - The total import and export volume of China's cultural trade has surpassed 1.4 trillion RMB in 2024, with digital cultural content exports, particularly in gaming and short dramas, showing significant growth [3][4] Group 1: Cultural Export Trends - The shift from "selling products overseas" to "cultural expression overseas" indicates a fundamental change in the approach of Chinese brands [3][4] - Key sectors driving this cultural export include games, web dramas, short dramas, and animation, which are gaining traction in Southeast Asian markets like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia [3][4] - The integration of local cultural elements into games and short dramas, as well as aligning product design with local aesthetics, is becoming a priority for brands [5][10] Group 2: Technological and Collaborative Changes - Digital technologies and platform mechanisms are reshaping the landscape of cultural content dissemination, making it less hindered by geographical and linguistic barriers [5][20] - Collaboration among content creators, brand owners, channel platforms, and local partners is increasingly recognized as essential for successful cultural export [5][20] - The article emphasizes that the future of cultural export will rely on finding effective dialogue methods rather than merely being the first to enter a market [6][14] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Strategy - Brands must adapt their strategies based on the characteristics of different markets, focusing on understanding key factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions [25][32] - The article suggests that brands that proactively prepare for overseas expansion and build strong supply chain partnerships will be better positioned to withstand market fluctuations [27][28] - The Southeast Asian consumer market is rapidly growing, and Chinese companies need to tailor their approaches rather than simply replicating domestic strategies [32]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy has shown a differentiated catalytic effect on the market, with significant excess returns in most industries like batteries relative to the CSI 300 index, while the coal industry has not outperformed the index [2][5][15] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in factory prices from the supply side, but this has not yet translated to consumer prices at the residential level [2][22] - Since July, prices of polysilicon and thermal coal have stabilized and rebounded significantly, indicating the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on price recovery [2][34] Market Performance - From July 1 to September 19, 2025, the battery sector saw a 41.13% increase, while the coal sector only increased by 7.36%, compared to a 14.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The coal production in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while coal prices have stabilized, contributing to the coal sector's recent performance [5][14] Policy Developments - Since June, new "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, emphasizing self-discipline and legal norms to promote capacity optimization, with more noticeable effects in quantifiable areas [6][16] - The effectiveness of these policies may vary, with some sectors lacking quantitative policy support, leading to temporary inefficiencies in supply contraction [6][16] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with an August year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [22][27] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to a drop in consumer goods prices, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [27][31] Industry Price Recovery - Since July, polysilicon prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching an average price of 50 yuan per kilogram by September 19, 2025 [34][38] - Other materials have experienced short-term price increases followed by a return to a downward trend, indicating a mixed recovery across sectors [34][36] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue on a "slow bull" trend, driven by a revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and policy expectations [7][45] - Key sectors to watch include metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and pig farming, which are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][41][45]

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 22 日 继续推荐互联网云+芯片，游戏板 块，提示长视频政策底 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 20250915-20250919 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but the overall hawkish tone from Powell has dampened market risk appetite [3][12][13] - Economic data from August shows a significant slowdown, with domestic demand weakening and GDP growth for Q3 projected at around 4.9%, prompting expectations for policy support to stabilize the economy [4][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential new policies aimed at boosting consumption and the real estate sector, as the current economic environment necessitates additional support [4][15][21] Group 2 - The report highlights a strong focus on the AI industry as a key investment theme, alongside sectors with robust economic support such as rare earths, precious metals, military, and financial IT [5][7][27] - It identifies that in a rising industry rotation intensity, growth style is likely to continue its upward trend for at least one month after reaching a peak, while financial style may weaken and cyclical style may strengthen [5][27][28] - The analysis of past growth cycles indicates that after peaks in industry rotation intensity, strong growth sectors tend to maintain their leading positions, suggesting a favorable outlook for AI and related industries [5][27][28]

Core Insights - The report suggests that the key market drivers in the fourth quarter may shift towards cyclical sectors and low-positioned technology branches, as historical trends indicate a structural change in market dynamics during this period [1][2][4]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the main risk-reward ratio for leading sectors has decreased, necessitating a shift in investment focus. The concentration of capital in AI upstream hardware has led to a few stocks disproportionately influencing the market [2][3]. - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 shows that sectors with the highest gains in the first three quarters tend to underperform in the fourth quarter, with financial and stable sectors having a higher probability of outperforming the market [2][3]. Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, institutions are likely to prioritize locking in profits from previously successful investments rather than seeking further excess returns. This behavior is driven by the need to mitigate ranking volatility risks, leading to a potential sell-off in previously high-performing sectors [3][4]. Cyclical Sector Opportunities - The report identifies that if optimistic economic expectations materialize, the fourth quarter will present a favorable window for cyclical investments. Historical examples from 2015 to 2022 demonstrate that consumer sectors often yield excess returns during this period [4][5]. Technology Sector Dynamics - Within the technology sector, the report anticipates a "high cut low" strategy, where investments will shift from high-performing upstream hardware to relatively underperforming segments within the AI industry chain [8][11]. - Specific areas of interest include midstream storage and AIDC-related facilities, which are expected to benefit from increasing demand driven by AI applications and capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [9][10]. Application Sector Potential - The report emphasizes that while downstream AI applications have lagged, their potential for growth remains significant. The emergence of breakthrough products and business models could catalyze a shift in investor sentiment towards these applications [10][11]. - Notable segments to watch include AI in pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, smart driving, and AI applications, which are positioned for potential growth as market narratives evolve [10][11].